SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Oklahoma City (50-32, 48-34 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (57-25, 33-46-3 ATS)
Kobe Bryant and the Lakers open defense of their NBA title against the upstart Thunder in Game 1 of this Western Conference opening round series inside the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City had the biggest one-season turnaround in NBA history, thanks in large part to the emergence of regular-season scoring champion Kevin Durant, who averaged 30.1 points and 7.6 rebounds per contest. He had 30 points or more in each of the final seven games, hitting the 40-point mark three of those seven. Despite Durant’s best efforts, the Thunder lost four of six down the stretch (3-3 ATS) to drop to the No. 8 seed. However, they ended the season on a positive note, routing Memphis 114-105 and barely cashing as an 8½-point home favorite.
The top seed in the Western Conference, the Lakers were just 3-6 (2-7 ATS) down the stretch with Bryant missing several meaningless games with a variety of nagging injuries. They failed to cash in any of the final three contest, including the season finale against the Clippers (a 107-91 loss as a 6½-point favorite).
Oklahoma City was 23-18 (26-15 ATS) on the highway this season, losing its final three roadies (1-2 ATS) following a three-game road winning streak, and the Thunder allowed 100 points per game as a visitor. Los Angeles went 34-7 inside Staples Center, but was just 16-23-2 ATS, despite outscoring the opposition by 8.5 ppg (103.9-95.4).
The Thunder haven’t been in the playoffs since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers had won 12 straight (5-7 ATS) in this rivalry until March 26 when Oklahoma City scored a 91-75 home blowout win, cashing as a one-point underdog. The Thunder cashed in three of four season meetings and they’re 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits to the Staples Center.
Oklahoma City is on several positive ATS runs, including 13-3 as a ‘dog of five to 10½ points, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 20-8 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 18-8 against winning teams and 6-2 after getting three or more days off. Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 first-round games, but otherwise they carry several negative ATS trends, including 1-5 overall, 1-6 at home, 1-4 as a favorite and 1-5 against Western Conference squads.
The Thunder are on “over” streaks of 8-2 overall, 7-0 on the road, 5-0 as road ‘dogs, 8-1-1 on Sunday and 19-7 after a straight-up win. The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” runs, including 5-2 overall, 5-1 at home, 17-8 as a favorite, 16-6 against Western Conference teams, 6-2 after three or more days off and 23-4-2 on Sunday.
In this series, the “under” has cashed in five of the last seven meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
San Antonio (50-32, 44-37-1 ATS) at Dallas (55-27, 37-44-1 ATS)
The second-seeded Mavericks, who just finished the regular season with a victory over the Spurs, immediately resume this Texas rivalry when they open the best-of-7 series at the American Airlines Center.
San Antonio was on an 8-3 SU and ATS roll before dropping the season finale in Dallas 96-89 as a five-point road underdog. The season-ending surge included wins over Cleveland (at home) and the Lakers (on the road) – the top two teams in the playoffs – as well as fellow postseason participants Boston (road), Orlando (home) and Denver (road). Gregg Popovich’s troops went 18-8 SU and ATS in their last 26 regular-season starts.
Dallas went on an 8-2 SU and ATS tear to cap the regular season (5-0 SU and ATS last five), beating out Phoenix, Denver and Utah in a tight race for the No. 2 seed in the West. Wednesday’s win over San Antonio gave the Mavericks a 23-6 SU mark over their last 29 games, though they were a more modest 16-13-1 ATS in that span.
The Spurs were a solid 29-12 SU (20-21 ATS) on the highway this year, averaging 97.3 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting, and giving up 95.4 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. The Mavericks were 28-13 SU at home this season, but they were a dismal 11-29-1 ATS in those contests, outscoring foes by about a bucket more per game in averaging 101.8 ppg and allowing 99.6 ppg.
San Antonio has won four NBA titles since 1999, with the last coming in 2007 against Cleveland, and is in the postseason for a 12th consecutive year. Dallas is making its 10th straight playoff appearance, reaching the second round last year before falling in five games to Denver. That followed a pair of first-round exits for a team that reached the NBA Finals in 2006.
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS, averaging 96.4 ppg and allowing 90.4 ppg. The Mavs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, including 3-1 SU and ATS this year, winning and cashing in the last three meetings. Dallas has covered in five straight at home against San Antonio, the host is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups, and the SU winner is on a 14-0 ATS tear.
The Spurs are on ATS slides of 0-4 as a playoff pup, 1-5-1 in first-round games, 1-4 after three or more days off and 2-6 on Sunday, though they also sport positive ATS runs of 18-7 overall, 6-1 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 6-2 against winning teams, 12-4 against Western Conference teams and 5-2 as a pup.
The Mavericks are on ATS upswings of 5-0 overall, 4-0 as a favorite, 4-0 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-1 in first-round playoff games and 4-1-1 within the Southwest Division. However, despite their current surge, they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-28-1 at home, 16-34-1 as a home favorite, 3-12-1 after three or more days off and 4-10 as a playoff chalk.
Dallas is on “under” surges of 6-1 at home, 4-1 after a break of three days or more and 14-6 as a playoff chalk, though the over has hit in six of the Mavs’ last eight against winning teams and five of their last seven Sunday starts. San Antonio is on “under” strings of 4-0 after three or more days off, 4-1 as an underdog, 6-1 as a playoff pup, 6-1-1 on the road and 11-4-1 on Sunday.
Finally, in this rivalry, the under was the play in three of this season’s four meetings, but in last year’s playoff series, the total cleared the posted price in four of the five contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Portland (50-32, 44-36-2 ATS) at Phoenix (54-28, 48-33-1 ATS)
The Brandon Roy-less Trail Blazers head to the US Airways Center facing an uphill battle against the NBA’s hottest second-half team in the Suns, the Western Conference’s No. 3 seed.
Portland lost the All-Star Roy a week ago in a win over the Lakers, and managed to split its final two games, beating the Thunder 103-95 as a 1½-point home favorite and then losing a meaningless 122-116 season finale to the Warriors as a 10-point home chalk. The Blazers went 13-4 (9-7-1 ATS) down the stretch to get the conference’s No. 6 seed.
The Suns went 22-5 (19-7-1 ATS) after Feb. 18, including a 10-game winning streak (7-2-1 ATS) from mid March and into early April. They closed the season with three consecutive SU and ATS wins, topping Denver on Tuesday (123-101 as a five-point home favorites and Utah on Wednesday (100-86 as a five-point pup).
The Blazers were 24-17 (25-15-1 ATS) on the road this season, and won five of their last six roadies (3-3 ATS). Phoenix was 32-9 (25-15-1 ATS) in the desert, including an eight-game home winning streak to close the regular season (7-0-1 ATS). The Suns averaged 112.6 ppg at home this season, shooting 49.8 percent from the floor while allowing 103.2 ppg (44.5 percent).
Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round. Meanwhile, Phoenix is returns to the postseason after missing out last year. This is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years.
The Trail Blazers have won four of the last five series clashes (4-0-1 ATS), including two of three this season (2-0-1 ATS). Portland went to Phoenix on Feb. 10 and prevailed 108-101 as a 9½-point underdog, but on March 21, the Suns got a 93-87 win in the desert and pushed as a six-point chalk. The favorite is on an 18-6-2 ATS run in the last 26 series clashes, but the Suns are 12-5-2 in the last 19 meetings in Phoenix.
Portland brings some positive ATS runs into the playoffs, including 15-6-1 on the road, 8-2 as a playoff underdog and 14-6-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. The Suns are on a bunch of ATS surges, including 25-9-1 overall, 12-3-1 at home, 18-7-1 as a favorite, 19-7-1 against the Western Conference, 13-3-1 as a home favorite, 5-1-1 on Sunday and 6-1-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Blazers have topped the total in six of eight as an underdog of five to 10½ points and 18 of 26 on the road against teams with winning home records, but they are on “under” runs of 8-3 as an underdog overall, 29-11-1 after three or more days off, 4-1 on the road and 4-0 after a non-cover. Phoenix is on “over” runs of 11-5 as a favorite and 8-2 as a chalk of five and 10½ points, but it is also on “under” streaks of 5-1 against Northwest Division teams, 6-2-1 after a spread-cover and 8-3-1 on Sunday.
In this series, the under has cashed in four of the last five played in Phoenix.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Charlotte (44-38, 44-37-1 ATS) at Orlando (59-23, 46-34-2 ATS)
The Magic begin their quest for a second straight Eastern Conference title as the No. 2 seed, meeting the rebuilt Bobcats in the opening round of the Eastern Conference playoffs inside Amway Arena.
Charlotte won six of nine (3-6 ATS) down the stretch, but lost the finale at home, falling 98-89 to the Bulls as a 1½-point underdog with nothing on the line for the Bobcats. Several Charlotte players have postseason experience, including Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, Larry Hughes and Theo Ratliff.
Coach Stan Van Gundy had his Magic keep their foot on the gas pedal down the stretch, winning and cashing in six straight meaningless games to close the season, and they finished on a 9-1 run (7-2-1 ATS). Dwight Howard is Orlando’s unquestioned leader at 18.3 points and 13.2 rebounds this season, but his supporting cast of Vince Carter (16.6 ppg) and Rashard Lewis (14.1 ppg) have a host of playoff experience as well.
The Bobcats were awful on the road this season at 13-28 SU, but they did manage to cash in 21 of the 41 games, and they actually won two of their last three as a visitor (1-2 ATS). Orlando went 34-7 at home (24-16-1 ATS), winning seven straight (5-1-1 ATS) and 13 of its final 14 (10-3-1 ATS) inside Amway Arena.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the Sixers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
Orlando had beaten the Bobcats seven straight times before a March 14 home upset loss, falling 96-89 as an 8 ½-point favorite. The Magic had cashed in four of five leading up to the March defeat. Even though the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four series clashes, Charlotte is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 trips to Orlando.
The Bobcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog, but they are on pointspread surges of 6-2-1 against winning teams, 6-0-1 against Southeast Division squads and 4-0 on Sunday.
It’s all positive ATS trends for the Magic, including 18-7-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home (all as a favorite) 18-7-1 on Sunday, 20-7 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 7-3 against Southeast Division teams.
Charlotte is on “under” runs of 7-2 on the road, 7-0 as a road ‘dog, 8-3 on Sunday, 10-3 against winning teams and 6-2 against Southeast Division squads. Orlando has topped the total in four of five overall and four of five as a favorite, but it is on “under” streaks of 10-4-1 at home, 20-6 on Sundays, 10-3 as a chalk of five to 10½ points and 9-4 against Southeast Division teams.
In this series, the under is 9-3 in the last 12 clashes overall and 6-2 in the past eight contests in Florida.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
San Francisco (8-3) at L.A. Dodgers (5-6)
Two of baseball’s biggest rivals finish their first series of the season, with the Giants’ Barry Zito (2-0, 2.25 ERA) opposing Clayton Kershaw (1-0, 4.50) in a battle of left-handers at Dodger Stadium.
San Francisco dropped Friday’s series opener 10-8 but rebounded Saturday with a 9-0 victory, behind another stellar pitching performance from ace Tim Lincecum, who allowed four hits in six shutout innings. The Giants have won 14 of 18 overall and five of six on the road. Additionally, Bruce Bochy’s club is on runs of 7-2 against the N.L. West, 4-1 on Sunday and 5-0 in the third game of a series.
Going back to last year’s National League Championship Series loss to the Phillies, the Dodgers have dropped nine of 14 overall, but nine of those games were on the road. They remain on positive runs of 8-3 at home and 5-2 against division rivals, but they’re 2-5 in their last seven on Sunday and 1-4 in their last five against left-handed starters.
The Dodgers are now 12-8 against San Francisco since the start of the 2009 season, winning seven of the last 11 battles in Hollywood.
Zito has been sharp in his first two outings of 2010, pitching six innings each against both the Astros (road) and Pirates (home) while allowing a combined four runs and eight hits. He beat Houston 3-0 and knocked off Pittsburgh 9-3. With Zito pitching, San Francisco has won five of six games overall, four straight on the road and four of five against division rivals.
Zito is 6-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 16 lifetime starts against Los Angeles, including 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA in six games at Dodger Stadium. He faced the Dodgers three times last year, going 1-1 with a 5.19 ERA, with one solid start in L.A. (one run allowed in six innings) and one ugly one (six runs allowed in five innings).
Kershaw has struggled with his control so far this season, walking 11 in just 10 innings of work. He got a no-decision in his debut at Pittsburgh, a game the Dodgers lost 4-3, then came back Tuesday and held the DBacks to two runs on three hits while whiffing seven in 5 1/3 innings en route to a 9-5 victory. Los Angeles has still lost 11 of Kershaw’s last 15 starts overall, but they’re 4-1 in his last five Sunday outings.
Kershaw is just 7-6 despite a stellar 2.51 ERA in 28 career starts at home. One of those was his only career start against San Francisco, which came 368 days ago. In that contest, the then-21-year-old held the Giants to one hit (a solo home run) and one walk while striking out 13 in seven innings, but he failed to get a decision in a game the Dodgers won 5-4.
San Francisco is on “over” tears of 7-1-1 overall, 14-5-1 against division rivals, 3-1-2 when Zito starts, 5-2-1 when he faces N.L. West rivals and 7-2 when he starts on Sunday. Likewise, Los Angeles is on a slew of “over” runs, including 24-8-2 overall, 11-3-1 at home (5-0 this season), 12-3-1 versus N.L. West foes (6-0 last six) and 5-0 versus left-handed starters. However, with Kershaw hurling, the under is on stretches of 8-3 overall and 4-1 against the N.L. West.
Finally, the last eight Giants-Dodgers battles – and the last six clashes in Los Angeles – have hurdled the posted total. However, the under is 4-0-3 in Zito’s last seven starts against L.A. and 2-0-2 in his last four at Dodger Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Tampa Bay (8-3) at Boston (4-7)
Matt Garza (2-0, 1.12 ERA) shoots for his third victory in as many tries this season when he takes the mound against struggling Red Sox lefty Jon Lester (0-1, 7.20) in the third game of a four-game series at Fenway Park.
Tampa Bay got a 12th-inning home run from Pat Burrell to steal a 3-1, 12-inning victory over the Red Sox on Saturday in the completion of a game that was suspended on Friday with the score tied 1-1 in the bottom of the ninth. Then in Saturday’s regular-scheduled contest, the Rays jumped out to leads of 4-0 and 6-1 and held on for a 6-5 victory.
The Rays have now won four straight overall and six in a row on the highway since last year, and they sport additional positive runs of 14-5 overall and 17-5 against the A.L. East, but they’ve lost seven of nine on Sunday. Boston has now dropped three straight and it is 1-10 in its last 11 against A.L. East foes. On the positive end, the Red Sox are on runs of 56-28 at home, 39-17 at home against right-handed starters and 8-2 on Sunday.
These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston had won the last four in a row prior to Saturday. Also, despite yesterday’s results, the Rays have still lost 53 of their last 71 games at Fenway Park.
Garza was dominant in his first two starts, both against the Orioles, pitching eight innings in each contest while giving up a total of three runs (two earned) on 10 hits with 14 strikeouts against just five walks. Going back to last September, the right-hander has held six of his last seven opponents to three earned runs or fewer while pitching at least six innings. In those six particular outings, he has 1.65 ERA.
The Rays have lost nine of Garza’s last 12 starts on Sunday, and they’re 1-5 in his last six on the road, where last year he went 3-7 with a 4.85 ERA in 15 starts. On the bright side, Tampa is 8-2 in Garza’s last 10 games against Boston (playoffs included), and he’s 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 14 career starts against the Red Sox, including 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in seven outings (playoffs included) at Fenway Park. Last year, Garza faced the Red Sox six times, going 2-1 with a 2.74 ERA (1-1, 2.95 ERA in three games in Boston).
Lester has been far from sharp to start the season, giving up four runs in five innings in each of two starts against the Yankees (6-4 home loss) and Twins (5-2 road loss). He’s now just 2-5 with a 5.08 ERA prior to May in his career, though he continues to sport incredible lifetime numbers at Fenway Park (23-5, 3.23 ERA in 45 regular-season starts).
Behind Lester, the Red Sox are still on impressive hot streaks of 57-28 overall, 26-5 when he pitches at Fenway Park and 12-4 on Sunday. However, they’ve lost five of Lester’s last seven starts against Tampa Bay. Last year, Lester went 2-2 with a 4.91 ERA in five games against the Rays, and for his career he’s 6-4 with a 4.15 ERA in 14 starts versus Tampa (playoffs included).
The Rays are on “over” runs of 6-2 overall (all versus the A.L. East) and 6-2 on the road, but they’ve stayed low in 15 of 21 on Sunday. And with Garza starting, the under is on runs of 44-19-3 overall, 20-5-1 on the road, 11-1 on Sunday, 24-9-1 against A.L. East rivals and 5-2 when he faces Boston. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have topped the total in five of seven at home, six of eight against the A.L. East and four straight on Sunday, but the under is 7-3-1 in Lester’s last 11 home outings and 4-0 in Lester’s last four on Sunday.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Marc Lawrence
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians
Prediction: Cleveland Indians
The Tribe closes out its three game series with division rival Chicago when they send Fausto Carmona to the mound at Progressive Park Sunday afternoon. Carmona concluded an outstanding spring camp, going 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Meanwhile, he enters today game sporting a 3.28 ERA in his first two starts of this campaign. He's also 6-0 in his last six team starts against the Pale Hose. No surprise here. We'll stay at home with Carmona and the Indians this afternoon.
Craig Trapp
Spurs vs. Mavericks
Play: Over 194
Maybe the best matchup in all of the playoffs. I do think SAS have a chance to win but it will not be by shutting teams down defensively like they old times. Instead this team must play a shorter quicker lineup that can score with the Mavs. Dallas on the other hand can score both in the half court and in transition. The three point line will push this over as both Ginobli and Terry hit at least three from deep. Enjoy the fairly easy over!
Rob Vinciletti
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals
The Nationals have taken the first 2 games of this series at home. Today they go for the sweep, and I think they can do it. Washington is 3-1 early on vs teams with a losing record and have played much better than advertised. They have had some tough losses against team like the Phillies as well. Milwaukee has struggled on the road losing 4 of their first 5 and they had a hideous 8.52 bullpen era heading into Saturdays game. Even worse is a system that plays against certain road favorites off a loss of 5+ runs, if they scored 2 or less runs and their opponent scored 5 or more runs on 10+ hits. The Home dog has won 10 of 15 times in this scenario. In the pitching matchup the Brewers have lefty D. Davis and the Nationals have J. Marquis. Both pitchers have struggled early on. However Marquis was solid in his only home start last year vs the Brewers going 6 innings and allowing just a pair of runs. Look for Washington to complete the sweep here today.
BIG AL
New York Mets @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: St. Louis Cardinals
On Saturday, these two teams went 20 innings before the New York Mets emerged with a 2-1 victory. And that was after the light-hitting Mets only managed 1 hit in the first nine innings of the game! Today, I look for a much-higher scoring game, and for a Cardinals victory, as they will hand the ball to a brilliant pitcher in Adam Wainwright. This season, he's 2-0 with an ERA at 1.20, and he'll easily shut down the New York bats. Moreover, St. Louis should score a bunch of runs tonight, as they'll be going up against righty John Maine, who has an ERA of 13.50 on the young season, including 24.00 on the road. In his career, Maine has also struggled vs. St. Louis, with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. With St. Louis a super 23-4 when priced between -175 and -250, and the Mets an awful 41-71 in nighttime games, we'll jump all over the Cardinals here. Take St. Louis.
Info Plays
3* on Boston Red Sox -131
Reasons why the Red Sox win:
1.) The Red Sox are 30-6 in Jon Lester's last 36 starts as a home favorite. That's a very strong trend, and one that we will gladly back as Sunday's free play. Boston has now lost 3 straight games and they certainly aren't pleased about it. Lester has allowed just 3 earned runs combined in his last 3 starts vs. Tampa Bay, totaling 20 innings. That equates to a sub-2.00 ERA in his last 3 outings against the Rays.
2.) Matt Garza is just 1-8 against the money line after giving up <=2 earned runs in his last 2 outings over the last 2 seasons. Garza is off to a fast start, but he's getting overvalued Sunday and the Red Sox will get after him early and often as they put a halt to their 3-game losing streak. Bet Boston at home.
Black Widow
1* on Charlotte Bobcats +10
Charlotte has the bodies inside to throw at Dwight Howard and limit his effectiveness. With Theo Ratliff, Tyson Chandler and Boris Diaw, the Bobcats have plenty of fouls to use on Howard to make sure he doesn't get any easy baskets. Charlotte has played the Magic very tough, including a 96-89 road victory in their last meeting with Orlando which gives them some confidence heading in. They also took Orlando to overtime in their previous meeting and lost by just 6 on the road three meetings ago. The Bobcats are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. The road team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in all 4 meetings this season. There's no doubt in our mind that the Magic are being overvalued in Game 1. Charlotte has proven they can hang with the Magic, and even beat them on the road this season. Take the Bobcats and the points.
James Patrick Sports
Mets vs. Cardinals
These National League rivals played a (20) inning marathon on Saturday and the Mets hand the ball to Joe Maine who has given up (12) runs in (2) starts to go with a lifetime ERA of (6.23) against the Red Birds. St. Louis has a sweet (5-1) Over the Total ATS record in Sunday action and Big Game James Patrick's Major League Baseball selection for Sunday is New York - St. Louis Over the Total.
JR TIPS
Charlotte at Orlando
Pick: Charlotte +9.5
This is the first postseason appearance for the Charlotte Bobcats and they will have to face the Orlando Magic who had the second best record in the NBA at 59-23 and come into the playoffs on a six game winning streak although against some weak competition. Dwight Howard has played like a MVP candidate and has one of the strongest supporting casts in the league starring Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick, Mickael Pietrus and Vince Carter. The Bobcats finished the season 15 games behind Orlando although these teams played close games all four times they matched up this season. Orlando took the season series 3-1 with the first game occurring before the Stephen Jackson's trade and the last three games resulted in a six-point Magic win, an 11 point Magic win in overtime and a six-point Bobcat win. Charlotte is one of the few teams in the league who can match with Orlando other than Dwight Howard with athletic and quick players like Boris Diaw, Gerald Wallace, and Tyrus Thomas. Charlotte also is second in the NBA at defending the three pointer holding opponents to 33.8% long range shooting. The question is will Tyson Chandler and Theo Ratliff contain Howard at all in the paint. The question is can Charlotte score enough points to challenge a much more potent Orlando team as they are the worst offensive team in this year's playoffs. The Bobcats will have to rely on their defense and Larry Brown will have this team playing terrific defense as they have all year which will keep this game in single digits.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play: Phillies over Florida
The Phillies have been a sure fire OVER play this season, and that’s despite Jimmy Rollins being on the DL. However, I “feel” the stronger angle on Sunday is the Cole Hamels (2-0, 5.06) reclamation project. Okay, the guy has not looked good in the early starts, still giving up the basic home run ball, while missing on the edges. Granted, Florida has been a problem for Hamels (2-6, 4.48) in his short career, but a few of those antagonists in the lineup have moved on to other clubs. The Phillies have garnered some one-sided wins when Hamels is booked at -1.50 to -2.00. How about 27 of the last 37 showing as wins for Philadelphia. Overall, the Phillies are 63-28 in that price range. Look for Cole Hamels to handle the Marlins a little better than in the past and help the Phillies maintain their first place edge.
Chuck O'Brien
San Antonio (+4') at DALLAS
Sunday’s complimentary release comes from the NBA playoffs, and I’ll take the Spurs as a road ‘dog at Dallas after scoring a free-play NBA winner with the Hawks on Satruday.
A lot of so-called experts believe the Mavericks are going to have an easy go of it in round one against San Antonio, believing that since they eliminated the Spurs in five games last year (without home-court advantage) they should have little trouble duplicating that effort, seeing that Dallas is the higher seed and has a more stacked roster than a year ago. I don’t share that opinion at all. With Parker, Duncan and Ginobili, San Antonio is still a very dangerous team and I frankly wouldn’t be shocked if the Spurs won this series.
As for this Game 1 contest, I’m willing to grab the points because despite losing three of four to the Mavs in the regular season, the Spurs played Dallas tough. In two road losses, San Antonio fell by five points in overtime (in November) and by seven points (in Wednesday’s regular-season finale). And even with Wednesday’s loss, the Spurs enter the postseason on an 18-8 SU and ATS run, and since April 1, they’ve defeated the Magic, Lakers and Nuggets (the latter two on the road). The won nine of their last 15 road games, going 10-5 ATS.
Finally, it’s impossible to ignore just how piss-poor San Antonio was at covering numbers at home, going 11-29-1 ATS overall, including 7-28-1 ATS in the last 36 (6-27-1 ATS as a home favorite).
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
Bobby Maxwell
Portland at PHOENIX (-8)
I nailed my FREE play on Saturday with the Hawks covering in their win over the Bucks in the NBA playoffs, improving my free play record to 83-59-3. Tonight I have another NBA winner for you as I lay the chalk with the Suns at home against the Blazers.
Quite simply, the hottest team in the NBA over the last two months has been the Phoenix Suns. They are 22-5 going back to Feb. 19, including a 10-game winning streak. Now they get a Portland team that is without its All-Star and while they might be able to fight for a half or so, the game is going to the Suns, easily by double digits.
Amare Stoudemire has looked like the league MVP the second half of the season, just dominating opponents night in and night out. They average 112.6 points a game at home and shoot 49.8 percent from the floor. That’s just too many points for the Blazers, without Brandon Roy, to overcome.
The Suns have also been a money-making machine this season, currently riding ATS streaks of 12-3-1 at home, 25-9-1 overall, 18-7-1 as a favorite, 13-3-1 as a home favorite and 6-1-1 at home against teams with winning road records.
The last meeting between these two was on March 21 when the Suns scored a 93-87 home win as a six-point favorite. The chalk is 18-6-2 ATS in the last 26 series clashes and the Suns are 12-5-2 ATS in the last 19 meetings in the desert.
I like the fight the Blazers have shown, but it’s asking too much for them to go to Phoenix and ask them to keep it close with the red-hot Suns without Roy. Lay the chalk and play the Suns to pull away in the second half and make this one a laugher when it’s all over.
5♦ PHOENIX
Stephen Nover
San Antonio (+4) at DALLAS
San Antonio started the season slow, while breaking in some new players and dealing with key backcourt injuries.
But the Spurs are back when they usually are this time of year - primed to make a deep playoff run.
Discounting the Spurs' regular season finale against the Mavericks, where San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich chose to not show anything and essentially mail the game in, the team covered nine of their last 13 games. Included among the victories during this homestretch span were wins versus the Cavaliers and Magic at home and on the road against the Celtics, Lakers and Nuggets.
San Antonio beat the Celtics, Lakers and Nuggets on the road by an average of nearly 20 points a game.
Dallas has some excellent shooters headed by Dirk Nowitzki. But the Mavericks can't match the Spurs defensively and in a physical half-court game, which playoff basketball often turns into.
The Mavericks are a horrendous 7-28-1 ATS during their last 36 home games. They have failed to cover in 15 of their last 20 home games versus opponents that made the playoffs.
1♦ SPURS
Texas (+150) at N.Y. YANKEES
The Texas Rangers are trying to avoid a sweep as they face Andy Pettitte today.
The veteran lefty has been living on the edge and is due for a fall. Pettitte has a 0.75 ERA so far but has surrendered 11 hits and six walks in 12 innings.
Career-wise, Pettitte has a 5.41 ERA in 22 starts versus Texas.
The Rangers are going with Rich Harden, making his third start for Texas.
Harden is an elite pitcher when healthy, which isn't that often. Harden, though, is rounding into shape. This is his third start this season and he looked much improved in his last outing. Opponents are batting only .182 against him.
I went 2-0 on my Saturday complementary selections cashing with the Mets and Atlanta Hawks in the NBA playoffs.
1♦ RANGERS
Jim Feist
White Sox at Indians
Take: Under
There was both good news and bad news for the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. The good news was that pitcher Jake Peavy finally resembled the pitcher that the Sox thought they were getting from San Diego in the off season. The bad news is that Peavy still hasn't won a game for the White Sox as Chicago dropped Saturday's contest, 3-2. The White Sox beat the Indians in the season opener, but have now lost four straight to the Tribe after Saturday's setback. The Sox will start Gavin Floyd, who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season. The Indians will counter with Fausto Carmona who is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA and coming off a no decision at Texas last time out where he gave up just two earned runs in eight innings. The White Sox (BA .220) and Indians (BA .216) have the two worst batting averages in the league. That means runs will likely be at a premium here on Monday. I'll take the UNDER and expect another low scoring affair between these clubs as all five have gone UNDER so far this season.
Brewers at Nationals
Take: Under
There was both good news and bad news for the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. The good news was that pitcher Jake Peavy finally resembled the pitcher that the Sox thought they were getting from San Diego in the off season. The bad news is that Peavy still hasn't won a game for the White Sox as Chicago dropped Saturday's contest, 3-2. The White Sox beat the Indians in the season opener, but have now lost four straight to the Tribe after Saturday's setback. The Sox will start Gavin Floyd, who is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season. The Indians will counter with Fausto Carmona who is 1-0 with a 3.21 ERA and coming off a no decision at Texas last time out where he gave up just two earned runs in eight innings. The White Sox (BA .220) and Indians (BA .216) have the two worst batting averages in the league. That means runs will likely be at a premium here on Monday. I'll take the UNDER and expect another low scoring affair between these clubs as all five have gone UNDER so far this season. Take the Under here on Sunday.