DUNKEL INDEX
Portland at Phoenix
The Suns look to build on their 11-1-1 ATS record in their last 13 games as a favorite between 5 and 10 1/2 points. Phoenix is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Suns favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8)
Game 709-710: Oklahoma City at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 118.825; LA Lakers 121.732
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 3; 193
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (+8); Under
Game 711-712: Charlotte at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 118.516; Orlando 127.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 8 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 10; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+10); Under
Game 713-714: San Antonio at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.193; Dallas 127.862
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 4; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Under
Game 715-716: Portland at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 118.420; Phoenix 130.301
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 12; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 8; 204
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-8); Over
MLB
Arizona at San Diego
The Diamondbacks look to avoid a sweep and take advantage of a San Diego team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games following a win. Arizona is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Diamondbacks favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100)
Game 951-952: Florida at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 15.136; Philadelphia (Hamels) 16.105
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-200); 10
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-200); Under
Game 953-954: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.269; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.439
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+105); Over
Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Davis) 15.183; Washington (Marquis) 14.643
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 10
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-120); Under
Game 957-958: Colorado at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Smith) 15.378; Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.979
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Over
Game 959-960: Houston at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.893; Cubs (Dempster) 14.584
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-180); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-180); N/A
Game 961-962: Arizona at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 15.072; San Diego (LeBlanc) 14.396
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+100); Over
Game 963-964: San Francisco at LA Dodgers
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.565; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 16.140
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under
Game 965-966: NY Mets at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Maine) 14.054; St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.764
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-265); 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-265); Under
Game 967-968: Texas at NY Yankees
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 15.918; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.902
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 9
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+145); Over
Game 969-970: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.801; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.014
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-120); Under
Game 971-972: LA Angels at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Santana) 14.883; Toronto (Romero) 16.099
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over
Game 973-974: Tampa Bay at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.888; Boston (Lester) 15.437
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+120); Over
Game 975-976: Kansas City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.214; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.952
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-200); Under
Game 977-978: Baltimore at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 14.626; Oakland (Anderson) 14.603
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+150); Over
Game 979-980: Detroit at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 14.790; Seattle (Snell) 14.717
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-130); Under
NHL
Pittsburgh at Ottawa
The Penguins look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is 1-5 in its last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games. Pittsburgh is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130)
Game 7-8: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.310; Detroit 11.709
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-210); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+180); Over
Game 9-10: New Jersey at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 12.372; Philadelphia 12.767
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Under
Game 11-12: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.166; Ottawa 10.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-130); Over
Game 13-14: Nashville at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.436; Chicago 12.249
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-300); 5
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-300); Over
Game 15-16: San Jose at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.363; Colorado 12.008
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+130); Under
MTi Sports
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres
The Diamondbacks are 0-13 when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits and The Padres are 6-0 as a home favorite when they lost the last time they faced this starting pitcher. Consider the Padres.
Scott Spreitzer
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Los Angeles Angels
I had Ricky Romero on these pages last time out and we cashed as he flirted with a no hitter. But I believe he's in big trouble on Sunday. The Halo bats are starting to heat up. And heading into this series, Mike Scioscia said he wanted to see three straight quality starts. The first two are in the books, and the third will take place today, in my opinion...and yes I know about Ervin Santana's career marks against the Jays. Remember, Joe Saunders also owned bad career numbers against Toronto, then shut the Jays down on Saturday afternoon. With the bats heating up and with starting pitching finding the mark, I believe the Angels will sweep the Jays in Toronto. The Halos opened a pretty decent-sized dog in this one, and the early money came in on them. I believe the money is correct, and I'm getting involved. I'm playing the underdog Angels to make it three straight.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oklahoma City Thunder at Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder
All four favorites ended up as pointspread winners yesterday, which might just generate more than usual action on today’s chalk. But we like the Thunder to give the Lakers a hard game this afternoon. LA lost six of their last nine games down the stretch, and we’re not convinced that Kobe Bryant is at 100% for this game. Kevin Durant has been waiting for a situation to arise to show his worth, and there’s no better place than against the Lakers in the NBA Playoffs. Thunder keep this one close.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Boston Red Sox -130
After back-to-back losses to Tampa Bay, look for the Red Sox to save face with a Game 3 win this afternoon. The Rays are just 18-53 in their last 71 games at Fenway, and Boston figures to be in good hands with Jon Lester. The Red Sox are an incredible 30-6 in Lester's last 36 starts as a home favorite, 17-4 in his last 21 home starts vs. a team with a winning record and 20-6 in his last 26 starts during game 3 of a series. Meanwhile, the Rays are just 1-5 in Matt Garza's last 6 road starts. The Rays are just 4-12 in their last 16 games as an underdog and we'll fade them in that role today.
EZWINNERS
Brewers @ Nationals Over 10
The Brewers starting pitcher Doug Davis lasted just 3 1/3 innings, taking the loss in a 9-5 defeat at the hands of the Cubs on Monday and has failed to advance beyond the fifth inning in both of his starts this year. The Nationals starting pitcher Jason Marquis dropped his record to 0-2 after two starts after being blasted again in his second start against the Phillies. Marquis has not gotten out of the fifth inning in either start he's made this season, both against the Phillies. He's given up 12 earned runs on 14 hits over 8 1/3 innings and issued five walks. The over is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two teams and with both of these pitchers bringing gas cans with them to the mound I expect another slugfest in this game. Play on the over.
Sac Lawson
TOR (-140) vs ANA
Let's speak hypothetically here and assume that Ervin Santana pitches a better game than Romero... We're in the 7th inning, and LA has a 1 run lead.. You still have got to absolutely love your chances with Toronto! The Blue Jays pen rocks an ERA in the 2.20 range, where as the Angels pen has an ERA of nearly 6.00. Aside from Fernando Rodney, there is not one guy in that Angels pen that i trust, not a single one.
So assuming the worst case scenario with our starters, I still think we have an edge. That being said, the starting pitching is where we have our largest edge in the first place! Ervin Santana has had one hell of a time keeping balls in the park so far this season, and today he's facing a Toronto team that is tied for the Major League lead in homeruns with 13. Expect Toronto to make some noise off him early. After that 2008 season where Santana won 16 games, it just seems like people are far too high on this guy.. It was an anomaly folks! Look at the surrounding years.. 2007 he had an ERA of 5.76.. 2009: 5.03 .. He's a mediocre pitcher at best..
We all saw what Romero did his last time out, and there's no doubt in my mind he's the ace of that staff. Even if he struggles a bit today and gives up a couple three runs, I still think it'll be enough to hang with Santana. Taking Romero in the Rogers Center is always a smart proposition, especially when they're facing a mediocre starter, and a terrible bullpen. Let's grab Toronto for a unit.
SEA (+110) vs DET
Now this is value my friends... We've got a Seattle club that has won 4 straight, playing at home, where they are historically 10x better than on the road, and we get plus money?! Yes, Please!
You 100% cannot look at Scherzer's ERA this season and make your judgment based on that. Fact is, the guy has faced Kansas City twice... You give me the ball twice against KC and my numbers will look good too. Point being, we can't take a lot away from those starts OTHER than the fact that his pitch count was far far too high. He gave up tons and tons of hits in his last start, and hit over 100 pitches in just 5 innings. That's a very bad sign if you're a Detroit fan, especially since he'll be facing a Seattle offense that is really starting to heat up. Guteirrez has been red hot, and Ichiro is finally starting to produce as well! Tough spot for Scherzer today.. The guy has not had great stuff lately, but has had the pleasure of facing the Royals twice, today if his stuff is off the Mariners will take advantage, count on that.
As for Snell, my feelings on him are neutral. The guy has calmed down a lot over the last year. We haven't seen any extremely crazy blowup-like starts from him in a while. And I think today we know what we'll get from him.. 5-6 innings of 2-3 run ball. I'm willing to accept that. Fact is, we're making a play AGAINST a starting pitcher who has not been convincing lately, and is facing a lineup that is on the rise and LOVES their home field advantage. Take the value here with the home dog! 1 unit Mariners!
SPORTS WAGERS
ORLANDO –10 over Charlotte
The Bobcats are headed to the playoffs. The only ones more excited than the Bobcats are their first round opponents. How the Magic doesn’t come out and absolutely crush these Cats will be a complete mystery. The Cats were 13-28 on the road and the only reason they made the playoffs was because of an even more mysterious 31-10 home record. Offensively, Charlotte has one guy, Stephen Jackson, they can rely on and if he’s off, they virtually will get crushed. If he’s on they still might get crushed because of those limited options. The Cats defense has received a ton of accolades this year and its deserving but Orlando’s defense is just as good, maybe even better and unlike Charlotte, they have a ton of options. Orlando closed the year by winning 20 of its last 23 and most of those were of the blowout variety. They’re hungry and they want to make quick work of this first round opponent and there’s nothing to suggest that won’t occur. Play: Orlando –10 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.13 over CLEVELAND
The White Sox are 4-8 and they’re hitting just .216 but getting swept by the much more challenged Indians is not an option for Ozzie Guillen. He’ll be ready today and so will his team. More than that, however, is the pitching match-up between Gavin Floyd and Fausto Carmona. On paper, Carmona has thrown two gems this season and one of them came against the White Sox. In fact, he’s allowed just six hits in 14 innings but he’s walked 10 batters while striking out just five. That’s a sign of a guy getting very lucky and it's only a matter of time until his wildness catches up with him. Carmona has a career WHIP of 1.48, a career ERA near 5 and a career BAA of .269. Gavin Floyd is a quality lefty that is off to a little shaky start. However, don’t put too much weight on that. This guy can pitch and he was much better last year in day games, going 5-2 with a BAA of .237. It’s not like the Indians re tearing it up either, as they’re hitting a collective .215 and in no way can they be trusted laying 20 cents to an inferior team and pitcher. Play: Chicago +1.13 (Risking 2 units).
Colorado +1.36 over ATLANTA
There could be something wrong with Jair Jurrjens and all signs are pointing towards that. Here’s a guy that could strike people out in the past and this year he’s struck out just three batters in two starts while walking four. The reports are that his velocity is down and it’s also worth noting that we was absolutely crushed at Petco Park in his last start where he didn’t make it out of the fourth inning and allowed eight earned runs. There are more signs that Jurrjens could be in trouble. He’s induced just 13 groundball outs against 21 fly-ball outs and that’s another indication that he’s not fooling anyone. Greg Smith is not a well-known pitcher but has some pretty sweet career numbers. He’s started 34 major league games covering 202 frames and has allowed just 179 hits for a BAA of just .233. Atlanta’s hitters have no real history vs Smith and that has to work in our favor. The Braves are only hitting a collective .230 and they’ve lost to every good pitcher they’ve seen this year. Play: Colorado +1.36 (Risking 2 units).
UPDATED SERIES PRICE
COLORADO +2.55 over San Jose
The Sharkies are a small favorite today in Colorado but it just doesn’t make sense to take back 20 cents on the Av’s in the game when +2.55 is available on the series. If the Av’s do win today, that series price is going to drop significantly and at that point you can always hedge. Besides, what have the Sharkies done to warrant this? They had a great regular season but so what, they always do and then they bow out in the playoffs. San Jose is not mentally tough like other playoff teams and it’s also worth noting that Evgeni Nabokov is rattled and not playing well at all. The Av’s were 30 seconds away from being up 2-0 in this series and now they’ll come home to a wild and inspiring scene at the Pepsi Center. This updated series price is out of whack, as the Av’s come home confident and knowing they can beat this intruder while the Sharks remain extremely fragile like are every April. Play: Colorado to win the series +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
Nelly
Washington + over Milwaukee
Doug Davis has really struggled in his return to the Brewers, allowing ten runs in just over seven innings of work. Walks have been a big problem and there has been no indication that Davis has simply been unfortunate and is ready to bounce back. Jason Marquis has been even worse for the Nationals but unlike Davis, Marquis has had to face the potent Phillies lineup in both starts. While Marquis has worse numbers so far he is the pitcher more likely to deliver a strong start Sunday at home. These teams have very similar scoring numbers at this point in the year and both bullpens have been major areas of concern. Washington has the positive momentum however with three consecutive wins and seven straight games with at least four runs scored. Milwaukee has struggled to score the last two games and this is a lineup that simply does not get on base enough with too many free swingers. With the top two pitchers on the mound the last two days the Brewers have lost and this will make for a tough sixth consecutive road game. Milwaukee is 1-4 on the road this season and Washington has been a streaky team, now 9-2 in the last eleven games following a win. With home underdog value the Nationals are worth a play as Milwaukee appears to be a team that is going to continue to struggle and Davis has looked like one of the worst starters in the NL at this point.
Tom Freese
San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: San Francisco Giants
San Francisco starter Barry Zito has allowed 3 runs total in his two starts this year. The Giants are 14-4 their last 18 games and they are 5-1 their last 6 road games. The Giants are 7-2 their last 9 games vs. NL West teams and they are5-0 in Game 3 of a series. The Giants are 8-3 as road dogs of +110 to +150. Los Angeles is 4-11 after allowing 5 or more run in their last game. Starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw has allowed 8 runs in 10 innings of work this year. Kershaw is 4-11 his last 15 starts overall. The Dodgers are 0-5 scoring 2 runs or less in their last game. PLAY ON SAN FRANCISCO +
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
3* graded play on the Phillies on the run line as they take on Florida set to start at 1:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game by more than 2 runs. Hamels takes to the hill and has had enormous run support during his first 2 starts while he finds his way. Hamels has one of the best change ups in the game and is adding a slider to his arsenal. His ERA is 5.06, but he has pitched better than that would indicate. His new pitch slider has dominated hitters as they are hitting just 156. What makes him very tough is that he will throw the change 24%, curve 18% on the first pitch. When behind in the count, batters cannot sit on the FB knowing that he will throw change 29% of the time. Marlins havw hit just 266 spanning 164 AB against Hamels in their respective careers. Take the Phillies on the Run Line.
SEAN MURPHY
Royals @ Twins
Pick: Royals +1.5
There's no question the Twins are the vastly superior team in this matchup, but that didn't stop the Royals from making things interesting in yesterday's eventual 6-5 loss.
Today we're able to play the Royals plus a run-and-a-half at a bargain price. Note that Kansas City has yet to lose three consecutive games this season, which is what they're trying to avoid on Sunday.
The Royals are actually hitting as well as any team in the league right now. Through their first 11 games of the season, they're batting a collective .301. They enter Sunday's game having scored at least five runs in five of their last six contests.
Kansas City's current lineup has had plenty of success against Twins starter Carl Pavano, hitting a collective .325 while slugging .535. Billy Butler, Alberto Callaspo, Alex Gordon, and Jose Guillen have combined to hit six home runs off of him.
Royals starter Luke Hochevar is off to a solid start here in 2010, having helped his team notch a pair of wins over the Detroit Tigers. He has allowed just 11 hits and four earned runs over 12 2/3 innings of work.
Current Twins hitters haven't had a great deal of success against Hochevar, batting a collective .257.
With the way the Royals are seeing the ball right now, they're never out of a game. Note that they've lost by more than a single run just once in their last five contests. We'll grab the insurance run for some protection against the Royals awful bullpen, but hopefully we won't need it. Take Kansas City +1.5 runs (-120).
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Bobcats/Magic UNDER 187.5
Bottom Line: I expect Game 1 to finish Under the number considering the way both of these teams get after it on the defensive end. Right away, I love the fact that plays on the Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (CHARLOTTE) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team, on Sunday games, are 37-15 the last 5 seasons, and we are only seeing 180.2 points scored in these spots on average. The Under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings and 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Orlando. The Under is a perfect 7-0 in the Bobcats' last 7 games as a road underdog and 10-4-1 in the Magic's last 15 games as a home favorite. Bet the Under.
Derek Mancini
Oklahoma City at LA LAKERS (-8)
Two big differences in this game that will eventually expose the Thunder. First is their lack of playoff experience, as the game slows down and possesions are like gold, its going to take a lot more than just Kevin Durant to beat a now healthy Lakers team.
The second difference is the return of Andrew Bynum. I've been critical of this Lakers team since he went down, as their defense and toughness seemed to wilt down the stretch. But with Bynum back and healthy, the starting 5 is in intact and Odom returns to his best role as leader of the 2nd unit. We all know Gasol is best at power forward, and with the Lakers two bigs playin side by side, Krstic/Green/Collison are incredily overmatched.
Everyone loves a cinderella, but part of being a cinderalla is you have to be underestimated in the first place. The Lakers are not, I repeat not, going to make that mistake. They know Durant is a beast, but overall the match ups greatly favor the Lakers, and there's no question who has the coaching edge either. Thunder have been cash money on the road this season, but pressure can do funny things to young/inexperienced teams. Durant will get his, but I suspect we'll see a lot of standing around and watching by his supporting cast.
Lay the points, as a now healthy Lakers team makes a statement in Game 1.
3♦ LA LAKERS
Michael Cannon
Oklahoma City at LA LAKERS (-7')
I am 30-22 with my last 52 overall free plays.
Take the Lakers minus the points over the Thunder.
Oklahoma City is going to find out what playoff basketball is like. I know Kevin Durant is a stud, but he’s not going to get the same looks he did during the regular season.
The Lakers are old hats at this. They know what it takes to win in the postseason and they’re going to take away the Thunder’s biggest threat. If Durant isn’t scoring, the Thunder aren’t going to keep this one within the number.
Los Angeles has covered four straight playoff-opening games and they have revenge motive for an embarrassing 91-75 loss at Oklahoma City on March 26.
Take the Lakers minus the points as they grab the win and cover in Game 1.
3♦ LA LAKERS