Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 21

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Detroit at LA Angels
The Tigers look to salvage a game in the series and build on their 9-1 record in Doug Fister's last 10 starts against teams with a losing record. Detroit is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100)

Game 901-902: Washington at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 14.809; NY Mets (Gee) 15.312
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+130); Over

Game 903-904: Miami at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Sanabia) 14.653; Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.189
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+200); Under

Game 905-906: Atlanta at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 17.008; Pittsburgh (Sanchez) 15.669
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-185); Under

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Feldman) 14.514; Milwaukee (Peralta) 16.429
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-150); Over

Game 909-910: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Stults) 15.354; San Francisco (Zito) 16.112
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-150); Over

Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 16.522; Colorado (Nicasio) 16.268
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+125); Under

Game 913-914: St. Louis at Philadelphia (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.044; Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.598
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-105); Under

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Nova) 15.987; Toronto (Johnson) 14.507
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+120); Over

Game 917-918: Kansas City at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Santana) 15.603; Boston (Dempster) 16.832
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-150); Under

Game 919-920: Oakland at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Milone) 16.392; Tampa Bay (Hernandez) 15.407
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-110); Over

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 14.420; Houston (Bedard) 13.759
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-110); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over

Game 923-924: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 15.991; White Sox (Floyd) 15.265
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+135); Under

Game 925-926: Seattle at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Harang) 13.954; Texas (Grimm) 15.938
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-175); Under

Game 927-928: Detroit at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 15.269; LA Angels (Wilson) 14.744
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+100); Over

Game 929-930: LA Dodgers at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 13.423; Baltimore (Arrieta) 16.338
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 3; 8
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Under

Game 931-932: Kansas City at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Guthrie) 15.783; Boston (Webster) 15.209
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles AngelsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles AngelsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Angels and Tigers put the wraps on a 3-game series in Los Angeles Sunday afternoon when C.J. Wilson toes the slab for the Halos. Wilson enters the fray sporting a 7-3 home team starts mark in his MLB career knowing he is 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA at home in his career against the Motor City. With the Tigers slow out of the gate against southpaws this campaign, look for Wilson and the Angels to head to the winners circle. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Red Sox/Royals Under 8½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I like how both of these pitchers have started out the season, so I think the offenses will have a tough time putting runs up on the board today. Ryan Dempster has given up just 2 ER in his last 12 innings on just five hits while striking out 17. Ervin Santana hasn't been a slough either, having given up 2 ER in his last 16 innings.
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Kansas City hasn't put up more than four runs in a game in 12 days and while Boston has been hot lately, they are only hitting .209 and scoring 3.4 runs per game at home.
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Santana has gone UNDER 15 of 19 times the last three years when the total is 8 or 8.5 and 22-8 UNDER against teams who strike out seven or more times per game. All signs point to a low scoring affair in the first game of today's double header.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox
Play: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago fits a nice system that has won 17 of 23 times and plays on certain home favorites that are off a 1 runs home favored loss at -140 or higher, vs an opponent off +140 or more road dog win, provided both teams scored 2 or less runs and had 5 or more hits. Minnesota squeaked past Chicago yesterday which sets this system up. The Twins are scoring just 3 runs per game in divsion games and have lost 4 of 5 as a road dog in this range. Chicago is scoring 5.7 runs on .315 hitting vs leftys. They have won 7 of 10 at home vs the Twins. In the pitching matchup S, Diamond makes just his 2nd start of the season after a losing to the Mets in his first start last Saturday. He has allowed 10 runs in 10 innings in his last 2 starts vs Chicago and has a 5.19 era against them. Chicago counters with Gavin Floyd and he has won his last 2 vs the Twins allowing just a pair of runs in 13 innings. Chicago is 12-0 when Floyd starts and when they lost his last start despite scoring first since 2007. Look for Chicago to win this one.

Jim Feist

Tigers at Angels
Pick: Over

The first two games of this series have gone over, but it's take a bit of luck. In game one, the Angels had to score five in the bottom of the eighth and the Tigers had to score a run in the top of the ninth with no one on and two outs to get it over. Then on Saturday, what looked like the easiest over ever, almost was a push. The Angels scored nine runs in the bottom of the 1st inning in a game with a total of 9. However, neither team scored again until a sacrifice fly by the Angels in the bottom of the eight inning pushed across the over run. Still, I am coming right back with Sunday's game Over. The Angels bats have gotten hot, scoring 18 runs in the last two games. The big bats of LA have also come alive after being dormant the first dozen or so games of the season. And while Detroit has struggled to score of late, they are still the league's top hitting and scoring team. The Angels pitching staff has also left a lot to be desired starting the season, though it has performed much better in this series. With the star power on both sides of the diamond here, and bats coming alive, I'm sticking with OVER on Sunday.

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Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox
Pick: Boston Red SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Here's your Hollywood screenplay playing out in real life. Allen Webster makes his big league debut today in front of what will be a sellout crowd at Fenway Park. Not bad for a guy who was primarily a shortstop in high school. Webster happened to be pitching on a day where a big league scout was in town to scout someone else. scout liked what he saw, Dodgers took an 18th round stab at him in the '08 draft, and five years later, he's pitching on the big stage.
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As far as what you'll see when Webster takes the mound, he's going to throw low heat with plenty of movement. Webster will get his share of K's but his best game will be generating ground balls with natural sink, and what should be some ugly swings with a very tough changeup. The slider is a work in progress but if that pitch continues to develop, the Webster ceiling gets pretty high. His control can be shaky at times, as he gets so much late movement on his offerings that he can get a bit wild at times. That's the downside for the righty, as he gets hit when behind in the count, and as big league hitters get accustomed to seeing him, their patience will be something Webster will have to adjust to. But against batters who have never seen him, I see Webster having an advantage at the outset.
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Jeremy Guthrie will go in this game for the Royals, and he's on a roll. Guthrie has surrendered just 28 ER in about 100 IP going back to last season, and he's off a terrific outing at Atlanta, albeit one on which he got no decision. As for that 28 ER/100 IP line, it's actually even better if you remove one disastrous start where he got torched. But that one start was, you guessed it, right here at Fenway Park. Guthrie has had a miserable time in this ballpark, and I'll expect Red Sox skipper John Farrell to load the lineup with guys who have blown uo Guthrie in the past. Scanning the Boston roster, Farrell will get to select from among hitters who are a collective 59/169 with nine HR against Guthrie.
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You'll have to lay a price here with the Red Sox. But the team is on a red hot roll right now and it's rare that first time starters are huge chalk. I'll be on the Boston side in this contest.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles AngelsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tigers' offense has slwoed to a crawl since midweek when the attack stalled in Seattle, and Detroit needs a jump-start to salvage the finale of this weekend set in Anaheim and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Angels. But perhaps the Tigers bottomed out in Saturday's 10-0 embarrassment, and can be expected to stay in this game on Sunday with emerging ace Doug Fister (3-0 with a 2.70 ERA) on the mound. Halos starter C.J. Wilson has not fared particularly well in his career vs. the Tigers, posting a 5.04 ERA all-time vs. Detroit.

Frank JordanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston Rockets vs. Oklahoma City ThunderSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Oklahoma City ThunderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston did win six of their last 10 games to lock up a playoff spot, but in losing their last two games they fell to number 8 and have to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder and Rockets played three times during the regular season with the edge going to the Thunder 2-1. The biggest wildcard in this series is James Harden a former Thunder player now on the Rockets. Look for Harden to try his best to do everything he can to will the Rockets to victory, but in the end Durant, Westbrook, and company will prove too much. Play Oklahoma City

Bryan PowerFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego vs. San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I won with the Giants Saturday and feel they have an excellent chance at finishing off a three-game sweep of the division rival Padres Sunday afternoon here at AT&T Park. As I mentioned in my analysis for yesterday's game, the Giants have just owned their NL West counteparts, now beating them 26 of 38 times, and with Barry Zito on the hill Sunday, I look for them to add another win to the pile..
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Going back to last season, the Giants have now won 15 of 19 at home. Lefty Barry Zito understands the power of home field advantage as he was sensational in his first two starts of the year, both at home. Zito didn't allow a single earned run over 14 innings in a pair of wins, but was hammered in his last outing when he stepped out on the road against Milwaukee. Expect a return to form this afternoon as Zito has a 65-18 team start record as a home favorite of -150 or more in his career. The Giants are 36-11 in that same price range as a team.
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This lefty vs. lefty matchup clearly favors San Francisco. As I mentioned yesterday, the Giants feast on southpaws. But because of an illness they didn't get to face Clayton Richard as scheduled Saturday. But now they draw Eric Stults, who has allowed seven runs in 11 innings over his last two starts. He has a career 5.10 ERA in nine all-time starts vs. the Giants, who are on a 43-20 run vs lefty starters the last two years. Break out the brooms here.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Columbus vs. San JoseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played twice this year and Columbus has won both: 6-2 at home on February 11th and 4-0 in front of the home town crowd on April 9th. The Blue Jackets are 21-17-7 overall but just 8-12-2 on the road. They're coming off a 2-1 loss at Los Angeles on Thursday night. San Jose is 24-13-7 overall and 16-1-5 at home. It's won three straight, most recently a 6-1 destruction of the Wild on Thursday. The Sharks have outscored their competition 13-3 during their win streak. The Blue Jackets' surge came to an end vs. the defending champions last time out, but note that they had won five straight previous to that starting with the victory over San Jose back on the 9th. During that run they scored four goals three times, and three twice. A great situational play: Columbus looks to get untracked, continuing its push to end the regular season, while the Sharks look to parlay their recent success into some more "W's", atoning for the two earlier setbacks in the process. I feel the table is set for a higher-scoring affair.

Will RogersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Columbus vs. San JoseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San JoseFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Two Western Conference playoff hopefuls meet in San Jose Sunday night as the Sharks host the Columbus Blue Jackets. Yes, the Columbus Blue Jackets are in the mix for a playoff spot. This despite losing their last game, in Los Angeles, 2-1. They remain eighth overall. But San Jose is fifth and has won three straight and seven of 10. They should hold serve on home ice here.
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Here are my keys to the game.FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. San Jose Rolling - The Sharks crushed the Wild 6-1 Thursday night. That's a good sign as the team is a perfect 10-0 this year immediately following a win by two goals or more. Including last year, they are 8 for 8 at home following a win by three or more goals. They have outscored teams 13-3 during the current win streak.
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2. Home ice advantage - This will be Columbus' fifth straight road game, so fatigue might be setting in. Meanwhile, San Jose has lost just one time at home in regulation all season, that coming all the way back on February 5th vs. Chicago. With the win over Minnesota, the Sharks moved to 16-1-5 for the year on home ice.
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3. X-Factor - Columbus has the worst conversion rate on the power play in the entire NHL this season.

Jeff Scott SportsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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3 UNIT PLAYSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OKLAHOMA CITY -10 over Houston: You have to be able to play some defense in the postseason and that gives a huge edge to the Thunder in this one. We all know that the Rockets can score, but their defense is truly bad, especially on the road where they have allowed 103.9 ppg. Its going to be very hard for them to stop this Thunder squad that has averaged 108.5 ppg at home and 121 ppg in the three games vs the Rockets this year. Houston just had no answer for stopping this team this year. Houston did put up 122 points on the Thunder in the final meeting, but that was at home, but they did put up just 96 ppg in the other two meetings vs the Thunder and Oklahoma City allows just 95.5 ppg at home. The Thunder defense has been particularly tough down the stretch, allowing just 91.4 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams can score, but only one team has any shot at stopping the other and that is the Thunder. Their Defense gives them a huge edge, especially at home and that should be good enough for a 15+ point win here.
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Atlanta/ Indiana Under 185.5: All three games in this series this year put up at least 194 points, but this is the playoffs and I expect a much different result. Both teams have had time to rest and that should greatly aid the defenses here. The Hawks have struggled at times on defense his year, but they still are 13th in points allowed (97.5 ppg) and 13th in defensive FG% (45%) and they will not be facing a strong offensive team in this one. The Pacers are 23rd in scoring (94.7 ppg) and 26th in shooting (43.6%), while in their last 6 overall they have averaged just 90.5 ppg. The Pacers have averaged 97.4 ppg at home, but in the playoffs they will slow it up a bit like last year when they averaged just 90.8 ppg in their 6 home playoff games. Defense is where the Pacers make their money and they have been one of the best year, ranking 2nd in points allowed (90.7 ppg) and 1st in FG% defense (42.0%), while at home this year they have given up just 89.9 ppg and Atlanta scores just 96.5 ppg on the road. Both teams can play defense and the Pacers will really slow tempo here, which should give us a game in the 170's.

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis Cardinals -115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It’s the same old story with the Phillies. No run support for their aces. Kendrick is a good pitcher, but not one of the Phillies best starters. This team is going to have to win with pitching until they get their batting straightened out. They may very well indeed win this game, but its safe to say they will be limited to a low run total. The odds are against them before the game even starts. This has been going on for two seasons now at things just don’t change for the better out of the blue. Take the Cardinals.

Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington at NY MetsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: WashingtonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Last season, New York's Dillon Gee featured an average fastball velocity right at 90 mph with a change-up around 83 mph. This year his fastball velocity is sitting right at 87-88 mph while his change is once again right around 83 mph. A 4-5 mph difference is simply not going to fool many MLB batters no matter how good your arm action is. Those issues are the exact reason who Gee's strikeouts are way down and his ERA is north of 8.00. When a guy gets pounded around early on in the year but the velocity is there, I try to give him the benefit of the doubt. But when your velocity is down as much as Gee's, it tells me either something is wrong mechanically or a trip to the DL is looming. I'm a big fan of Jordan Zimmermann. He doesn't post Strasburg's strikeout numbers but rarely issue walks and forces teams to put the ball in play to beat him. The price is certainly reflective of the starting mismatch but when you got a guy who is damaged goods you have to keep firing away until he proves otherwise.