Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday April, 22

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Astros button up a three games series when Chad Billingsley matches serves with Wandy Rodriguez in Houston Sunday afternoon. Billingsley toes the slab in terrific KW form with 17 strikeouts and 1 walk this season, sporting a 4-0 record with a 1.78 ERA in his career team starts in Houston. He's also cashed in 14 of his last 20 team starts during the opening month of April. The bottom line is there are simply too many good numbers working in L.A.'s favor here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Rob Vinciletti

Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: Chicago White Sox

Chicago no hit the Mariners on Saturday and I was curious to see how home teams do the following day after such an anemic performance. The Results were not good. Road favorites off a road win that scored 4 or less runs, vs an opponent off a home loss and scored 2 or less runs with 2 or less hits and 2 or less men left on base are winning at an 80% clip long term. Chicago is is 4-0 on the road with a total of 7 or less and 3-0 vs losing teams. Seattle has lost 4 of 5 the last vs winning teams and 26-67 long term vs left handers. Even wore is their .197 batting average in day games. Today they will face J. Danks and he has been solid vs the Mariners allowing just 1 earned run in 24+ innings in his last few starts vs Seattle. The Mariners counter with K. Millwood and he is just 2-9 in team starts vs Chicago. With Chicago 18-3 vs the Mariners the past few years we will back them here today.

David Chan

Cleveland @ San Antonio
PICK: Over 204.5

I bet value where I see it and expect this total to sail over the posted number.

The Cavs are 21-41 and are coming off a 98-90 win over the Knicks on Friday.

Manny Harris had 19-points and 12-boards; Kyrie Irving scored 21-points; Samardo Samuels chipped in 15.

The Spurs are 46-16 and have won six in a row, most recently a 121-97 destruction of the Lakers on Friday night.

Tim Duncan had 21-points and eight-boards; Tony Parker had 20-points and 10-assists; Manu Ginobili chipped in 20-points and seven-assists.

San Antonio sits just a half-game ahead of the Thunder for the the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference; suffice to say, a mental lapse, or a shift in intensity won't be occurring tonight as the Spurs look to finish the season strong, and claim that top ranking which earns them home court throughout the playoffs.

The Spurs have been crushing their competition of late, winning by an average of over 19-points per game during the win streak:

"We've been playing pretty well but the playoffs, that's a situation where you have to do it night after night for a while," Spurs' coach Gregg Popovich said.

Cleveland has had difficulties slowing down anyone this year, and now faces a highly motivated home side that's been averaging over 120-points over its past four contests (and shooting almost 60% from the floor in that span).

Note that four of these team's last five in the series have soared over the posted number, including the Spurs 125-90 win at Cleveland on April 3rd.

All signs point to another high-scoring affair!

Sean Murphy

Baltimore Orioles @ Los Angeles Angels
PICK: Los Angeles Angels

The Orioles luck has seemingly run out here in Los Angeles.

They've dropped the first two games of this series, and they don't appear to be in good position to avoid the sweep on Sunday, as they face the Angels co-ace in Dan Haren.

Last night, Jered Weaver tossed a complete game for the Halos, and that should inspire his running mate, Haren, on Sunday. Dan hasn't gotten off to a typical start this season, allowing a whopping 25 hits and nine earned runs in only 17 innings of work. However, he did settle down in his most recent outing, holding the A's to only five hits and one earned run over 6 2/3 innings. Unfortunately, the Angels offense didn't help him out in an eventual 5-3 loss. That should change today.

The Halos will be going up against O's rookie Wei-Yin Chen. He's been inconsistent at best in his first two big league starts, giving up 13 hits and six runs, four of them earned, in 11 innings of work. Chen has struggled with his command at times, a big reason he hasn't been able to work deep into ball games. That leaves the O's in a tough spot here, as their bullpen has been overworked on this road trip, with only one of their last four starters lasting at least six innings.

This has been a home-dominated series lately, with the host taking seven of the last eight meetings going back to last season. With the Angels bats finally waking up over the last couple of games, and Haren poised for a strong outing against a mediocre O's offense, this one sets up well for the surging home side.

Jim Feist

St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

Despite losing slugger Albert Puljos in the offseason, the defending World Champion Cardinals are off to a fast start this season, winning 10 of their first 14 games. The Cards have done it with big hitting, 3rd in runs scored (77), 2nd in slugging percentage (.486) and 2nd in batting average (.287). Kyle Lohse is off to an equally hot start, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 0.59 WHIP in three starts. Lohse hasn't allowed more than four hits or one run in any of his three starts while he's walked just two against 11 KO's. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh has won just five of its first 13 games and tried to put an end to a 3-7 run on Saturday. The Bucs will send Erik Bedard to the hill and while the southpaw has a nice ERA of 2.65, he is 0-3 on the season. The problem for Bedard has been run support as he has received just two runs of offense in three starts. I don't see that changing much today against a very hot Lohse and the big bats of the Cardinals. Take St Louis.

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Pick: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are not good and neither is Kevin Millwood. But after getting beat on a perfect game, the M's should want this one badly and John Danks of the White Sox can be had. I'll take the plunge with Seattle as a home underdog.

Nick Parsons

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: New York Yankees

After the blowout win Friday afternoon, and the comeback win Saturday afternoon, expect the Yankees to make it a clean sweep Sunday night, when they send their Ace, 6'7” 300 pounder C.C. Sabathia to the hill of thrill. This was predicted by many in the pre-season to happen, the Yankees will continue their domination of the Amercian League East, but will no longer be challenged by the Red Sox while they are in a transitional phase. It could not of gone any worse for the Red Sox this weekend. After losing game one 6-2, they came back strong Saturday and put up a 9-0 lead through 5 full innings, only to give up back to back 7 run innings in the 7th & 8th, to completely crumble to a 15-0 rout over the final four innings, in losing 15-9. The Yanks' confidence is getting a boost here while they displayed such impressive resiliency while the Red Sox are a team who is trying to find out what type of team the really are this season. We will back the men from New York along with their top hurler. This even more enticing is the value associated on this play as Sabathia has only been available for wagering below -150 ten times in his last 36 appearances. Take the Yankees, their Ace, and the low juice.

SPORTS WAGERS

Series - Pittsburgh +176 over PHILADELPHIA

Momentum is a funny thing and suddenly the Penguins have it all while the Flyers have already blown two opportunities to close this thing out. The third time isn’t going to get easier and with goaltending issues, the inability to score at even strength and the 10 goals allowed two games ago, the Flyers could be a very fragile club. The odds makers have the Penguins as a -120 favorite here. However, when we dig a little deeper we see that instead of laying 20 cents, we can take back +176 on them to win the series and that’s a much better option. Should the Pens win here, a very distinct possibility, they are going to be a -180 favorite in game seven and we’ll have them at +176 in game seven. Of course anything can happen in this game, just like all the others. However, if momentum, confidence and experience have a big impact on this outcome, we’ll be seeing a game seven and if you like Pittsburgh today, as we do, a series bet is the right way to go. Play: Pittsburgh to win series +176 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

WASHINGTON +106 over Miami

The Marlins opened the year with a 3-6 record before going on a four-game winning streak before this series began. They’re 0-2 in Washington and have scored twice in two games here. When we look at Miami’s four-game winning streak we see them sweeping the Cubbies in three games and beating the Astros. Take away those four wins and the Marlins’ already ugly numbers would be bordering on troublesome. Speaking of trouble, Josh Johnson could be a pitcher in peril. There are rumblings in Miami that Johnson does not look like his old self. His fastball is off four mph since mid-March. There are also reports he is having trouble getting loose before starts and he has had first inning struggles. Johnson has allowed 28 hits in 16.1 innings over three starts. He’s 0-2 with a 2.04 WHIP and a BAA of .400. With six walks and eight k’s, Johnsons’ walk/strikeout ratio is also weak. Even in the unlikely event that Johnson snaps out of it, the Marlins are still going to be hard pressed to beat the Nationals and Gio Gonzalez. After a shaky season debut, Gonzalez has now allowed just four base hits over his last 14 shutout innings with 15 strikeouts over that span. His last two starts have been masterful and the fact that Miami is favored here is somewhat ludicrous when you consider the current form of these two pitchers and that the Nats are 12-4 overall. Wrong side favored. Play: Washington +106 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +128 over ARIZONA

The Braves have won five straight and nine of 10 while the Diamondbacks have dropped five in a row. Atlanta will go for the four-game sweep and there’s no reason they can’t get it, especially when you consider that they are the hottest offense in the NL. During its current five-game winning streak, Atlanta is hitting .322 while scoring 45 times. Ian Kennedy is 2-0 in three starts but probably doesn’t deserve to be. In two home starts against the Pirates and Giants, Kennedy has allowed 17 hits and seven runs in 13.1 frames for a 4.97 ERA. His GB/FB profile is trending the wrong way and in this park a fly-ball tilt spells trouble. That’s not to say Kennedy is an imposter. He still has 17 k’s against just three walks and last year he went a remarkable 21-4. However, the club he pitchers for is struggling badly and he’s not in top form yet. Rotation injury to Tim Hudson has paved the way for Randall Delgado to get a few starts. The kid is developing a nice profile with a 2-0 record, 11 K’s in 10 innings and a 55% groundball rate. With fewer than 60 innings at Triple-A and with just 10 innings pitched this season the sample size is small but all signs point to Delgado being a good one in the making. Hot versus cold, plus a tag gets the call. Play: Atlanta +128 (Risking 2 units).

John Ryan

Golden State Warriors at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves

5* graded play on Minnesota as they take on the Golden State Warriors set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Minnesota will win this game by 12 or more points. The sim shows a high probability that GS will score between 93 and 98 points; That Minnesota will grab between 53 and 57 rebounds, and will have at least four more boards than GS. In past games, Minnesota is a solid 28-15 ATS (+11.5 Units) when they allow 93 to 98 points in a game over the last 3 seasons; 162-113 ATS (+37.7 Units) when they grab 53 to 57 rebounds in a game since 1996; 154-96 ATS (+48.4 Units) when they grab 4 to 9 more rebounds than their opponents in a game since 1996. Take Minnesota.

Michael Alexander

Hornets vs. Clippers
Play: Over

Over is 3-1-1 in Clippers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400

Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings between New Orleans and LA.

Over is 9-4 in Hornets last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record

Bryan Power

New Orleans @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: L.A. Clippers -10.5

For many reasons, I do not like visiting New Orleans' chances in this one at all. One is the fact that the host Clippers are coming off an outright loss at Phoenix Thursday and have had two full days off to simmer. The Clips are currently embroiled in a tight race w/ the Lakers for the Pacific Division Title. They enter Sunday trailing their rivals, who host Oklahoma City earlier in the afternoon, by just one-half game. Overall, the team has won 13 of 16 and here at home they've been even better as the last road team to come in here and win was Phoenix on March 15th, a stretch of 11 games that also does include a loss to the Lakers, who share the building. Last time here, they really dominated Oklahoma City in a 92-77 outright win. Not buying New Orleans' recent flurry, which includes an outright win over Houston in overtime on Thursday as they've been taking advantage of some generous numbers and disinterested teams. They'll have LA's attention here.

Jimmy Boyd

Philadelphia Phillies +102

The Phillies are showing value at this price given their impressive track record against the Padres. They have won 39 of the last 54 meetings, including 26 of the last 31 in San Diego.

Blanton has thrown a gem and a dud in 2 starts but his chances of another gem are pretty good against a San Diego club batting just .184 at home. The Phillies have won his last 2 starts against the Padres - both on the road - and he's given up a total of only 3 earned runs in 13 innings of work in those outings.

The Phillies are 15-7 in Blanton's last 22 starts and 6-2 in his last 8 starts as an underdog.

The Padres won yesterday to end a 4-game skid but are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win. Take Philly.

Jack Jones

Charlotte Bobcats +4

I realize the Charlotte Bobcats have been the worst team in the league this season. But they should not be an underdog at home to the lowly Sacramento Kings Sunday. I believe Charlotte puts an end to their long losing streak and wins this one for pride today.

Sacramento has essentially packed it in. The Kings are 1-9 SU & 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games overall. There's no way they should be favored in this spot considering how poorly they've played over the last few weeks.

The Kings are 0-7 ATS after failing to cover 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread this season. Sacramento is 1-9 ATS versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season. Charlotte is 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with Sacramento. Bet the Bobcats Sunday.