SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (3-0 SU and ATS) at Miami (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Celtics look to become the first team through to the second round when they go for a sweep of the Heat in Game 4 of their first-round series at American Airlines Arena.
Paul Pierce hit a buzzer-beating dagger to end Game 3, lifting Boston to a 100-98 win Friday night as a four-point road underdog. The Celtics, who have also cashed in all three games in this series, got 32 points from Pierce and 25 from Ray Allen, and they got to the free-throw line six more times than Miami (23-17), making 18.
Miami lost Game 3 despite shooting a solid 50.6 percent from the floor (39 of 77), though the Heat were just 6 of 18 from 3-point range (33.3 percent). Dwyane Wade had a game-high 34 points to go with eight assists, but he went 3-for-11 from long distance. The Heat also gave up 21 fast-break points, while scoring just 11.
Miami is 24-18 SU (18-23-1 ATS) at home this year, averaging 96.8 ppg on 45.7 percent shooting and giving up 93.5 ppg on 44.4 percent shooting. Boston is 27-15 on the highway (22-19-1 ATS), putting up 98.1 ppg on 47.6 percent shooting and allowing 94.3 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting.
Boston has absolutely owned this rivalry lately, taking the last eight in a row (6-2 ATS) and 14 of the last 15 meetings (11-4 ATS), and Doc Rivers’ troops are 8-1 ATS on their last nine trips to South Beach. The chalk has cashed in 11 of the last 13 clashes, the road team is on a 10-5 ATS run, and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head battles.
In addition, the SU winner has covered in Miami’s last 10 postseason affairs and is 13-3-1 ATS in Boston’s last 17 playoff games.
The Celts are on ATS runs of 5-0 in first-round games, 5-1 against winning teams and 9-2-1 as a playoff pup, but are also 1-5 ATS in their last six after a day off, 2-6 ATS in their last eight after a SU win and 2-5 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover.
The Heat are on a handful of ATS slides, including 2-6 overall, 3-10-1 in opening-round playoff games (1-6 last seven), 1-6-1 at home and 11-25 at home against teams with a winning road record.
Boston holds “over” streaks of 9-3 overall, 6-1 in first-round playoff games, 5-1 as a ‘dog and 6-2 against winning teams. Miami is on “over” strings of 6-2 overall, 10-4 at home, 6-1 after a SU loss, 5-1 as a favorite and 7-2 against winning teams.
Finally, the total has cleared the posted price in seven of the last nine meetings between these rivals, including the last two in this series and four of the last five dating to regular-season play.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Cleveland (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Chicago (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Bulls will try to knot up their series with the top-seeded Cavaliers in Game 4 at the United Center.
Chicago climbed back into this first-round series by holding on for a 108-106 victory Thursday night in Game 3, watching a 21-point third-quarter lead dwindle to one in the waning seconds, while cashing for the second straight game. Derrick Rose had 31 points and seven assists for the Bulls, Kirk Hinrich added 27 points, and Joakim Noah had 10 points and 15 rebounds. Chicago shot an even 50 percent (42 of 84) and committed just eight turnovers, while forcing 13.
Cleveland fell despite a game-high 39 points from LeBron James, who also had 10 rebounds and eight assists, but committed five turnovers. The Cavaliers chucked up 35 shots from 3-point range and knocked down a respectable 14 (40 percent), but it wasn’t enough to seize complete control of the series.
With Thursday’s loss, Cleveland fell to 26-16 SU (22-19-1 ATS) on the road this year, averaging 101.1 ppg on 47.3 percent shooting while allowing 97.0 ppg (44.8 percent). Chicago is 25-17 SU (23-19 ATS) at home, narrowly outscoring visitors (98.2-97.5) while shooting 45.3 percent and allowing 43.0 percent shooting. The Bulls lost five straight home games to start March, but have won six of their last nine at the United Center (5-4 ATS).
The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight contests in this rivalry (4-1 last five), and the home squad is on a 20-9 ATS roll, with Chicago cashing in five of the last seven at the United Center. In addition, the SU winner is 29-3 ATS in the last 32 head-to-head clashes between these Central Division rivals.
The Cavaliers are on ATS purges of 3-10 overall (1-5 last six), 2-8 as a favorite, 2-9 after a SU loss, 2-7 after a non-cover and 1-4 on the highway. That said, Cleveland is also 13-5 ATS in its last 18 first-round playoff games (6-2 last eight) and 16-6-1 ATS in its last 23 outings as a playoff chalk.
The Bulls are on a bundle of ATS rolls, including 14-6 overall (5-1 last six), 19-8-1 against Central Division rivals, 7-2 as an underdog, 7-2 as a playoff ‘dog and 25-10 following a spread-cover. However, they are still 5-9 ATS in their last 14 against teams with a winning percentage above .600.
The over is on runs for Cleveland of 6-1 as a playoff chalk, 4-1 in roadies and 11-4 as a road favorite, and Chicago is on “over” stretches of 18-7-1 in first-round playoff games (6-1 last seven) and 9-1 as a playoff pup. On the flip side, the under is on stretches of 7-2 for Cleveland after a SU loss, 38-13-2 for the Cavs on Sunday and 5-1 for Chicago following either a SU or an ATS win.
Finally, Games 2 and 3 in this series cleared the posted price, following a 5-1 “under” surge in this rivalry. Also, the total has gone high in nine of the last 13 United Center meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO and OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Dallas (1-2 SU and ATS) at San Antonio (2-1 SU and ATS)
The seventh-seeded Spurs look to take command of this first-round series among Texas rivals when they host the second-seeded Mavericks in Game 4 at the AT&T Center.
San Antonio trailed by nine at one point in the third quarter of Game 3 on Friday night, then outscored Dallas by 13 points the rest of the way in a 94-90 win to barely cover as a 3½-point home favorite. The Spurs, who have won and covered two in a row after losing the series opener, saw Big Three deliver big time in Game 3, with Tim Duncan scoring 25, Tony Parker adding 23 and Manu Ginobili chipping 15 (plus seven assists). Ginobili suffered a broken nose after being hit by a Dirk Nowitzki elbow in the third quarter, but he came back to score 11 in the fourth.
Dallas took as many shots as the Spurs (76), making 34 while San Antonio hit 37. The Mavs went 8-for-20 from long distance, while San Antonio missed all seven of its 3-pointers. Also, Rick Carlisle’s troops went 14-for-15 at the line (93.3 percent), but the Spurs made 26 trips to the charity stripe, hitting 20.
San Antonio is now 30-12 SU (25-16-1 ATS) at home this season, outscoring visitors by more than eight ppg (105.2-97.0) and outshooting them 49.2 percent to 46 percent. Dallas stands 27-15 SU and 26-16 ATS on the highway, with the Mavs averaging 101.9 ppg on 46.8 percent shooting and yielding 98.8 ppg (45.3 percent).
These instate rivals also met in the first round last year, with Dallas rolling to a 4-1 series victory while also going 4-1 ATS. The Mavs are still 7-3 ATS in the last 10 clashes, but San Antonio’s victories in the last two contests halted a 4-0 SU and ATS run by Dallas in this rivalry. The host is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 matchups, but Dallas is 12-5 ATS on its last 17 trips to San Antonio. Also, the SU winner is on a 16-1 ATS tear when these squads hook up.
The Mavericks are 9-4 SU and ATS in their last 13 starts overall (6-2 SU and ATS last eight), and they are on further pointspread upticks of 5-1 on the highway, 6-2 after a day off and 5-2 as a road pup. However, they are 1-5 ATS in their last six starts as a playoff ‘dog (0-4 last four).
The Spurs are on ATS upswings of 20-8 overall, 9-2 at home, 8-2 as a home chalk, 20-6-2 as a playoff chalk, 8-2 after a day off and 8-3 against winning teams, though they remain just 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 first-round games (2-4 last six, all against Dallas).
San Antonio is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 5-1-1 against winning teams and 16-7 after a spread-cover, but the over for the Spurs is on surges of 5-1 at home and 4-1 as a home chalk. Dallas is on under rolls of 10-4-1 overall, 4-0-1 in the Southwest Division and 5-1 as an underdog.
Finally, the under is 5-1-1 in this year’s seven clashes in this rivalry, with the last three meetings – the regular-season finale on April 14 and the first two games of this playoff series – staying low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver (1-2 SU and ATS) at Utah (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Jazz try to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference series when they meet the Nuggets inside EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City.
After dropping Game 1 in Denver, Utah has won two straight, including Friday’s 105-93 home victory, easily cashing as a 2½-point favorite. The Jazz dominated the middle of the game, outscoring the Nuggets 63-41 in the second and third quarters to key the victory. Five Utah players scored in double digits, led by Deron Williams’ 24 points (along with 10 assists). Paul Milsap also was huge for the Jazz, contributing 22 points and 19 rebounds, and Carlos Boozer added 18 points and eight rebounds. Defensively, Utah allowed just two Nuggets to reach double figures in scoring, as both Chauncey Billups and Carmelo Anthony (plagued by foul trouble) each had 25 points.
The road has been rough on Denver this season, as it fell to 19-23 (15-22-5 ATS) with Friday’s defeat, and the Nuggets are just 2-7 (1-7-1 ATS) in their last nine on the highway. On the other hand, Utah is a dominating 33-9 in front of the home fans (27-13-2 ATS), winning 11 of its last 12 in Salt Lake City (9-3 ATS).
The Jazz were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs a season ago by the Lakers in five games (3-2 ATS). They’re in the postseason for the fourth consecutive year, but have lost four of their last six first-round series.
The Lakers also took out the Nuggets on their way to the NBA title, topping Denver in six games (3-3 ATS) in the Western Conference Finals. Prior to meeting Los Angeles, the Nuggets had won eight of 10 playoff contests in the first two rounds – eliminating New Orleans and Dallas – while going 10-0 ATS. This is Denver’s sixth consecutive playoff appearance after a nine-year drought from 1995-2003.
The Nuggets still lead the season series 4-3 (3-2-2 ATS), but the Jazz are 2-1 at home (1-1-1 ATS). Denver remains 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings, including 3-1-1 ATS in Utah, but the favorite is 25-11-3 ATS in the last 39 meetings.
Denver is on pointspread skids of 5-13-1 overall, 1-7-1 on the road and 1-5-2 as an underdog, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 6-2 as a playoff underdog and 4-1-1 after a non-cover. The Jazz are on a plethora of ATS upticks, including 33-15-3 overall, 24-9-2 at home, 9-3 as a home favorite, 22-7-1 as a chalk of less than five points and 23-11-2 against Western Conference squads.
The Nuggets have topped the total in four of five overall, six of nine against Northwest Division teams and four of five against winning teams, but they are on “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 38-17 as an underdog, and 22-6 as a playoff ‘dog. Utah has gone over the total in 20 of 27 against Northwest Division rivals and four of five against winning teams, but it is on “under” runs of 6-0-1 after a straight-up win, 3-1-1 at home and 6-2-1 as a favorite.
In this rivalry, the over is 4-1 in the last four meetings, but the under has cashed in five of the last six in Utah, with Game 3 staying low after the first two contests in Denver hurdled the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (12-5) at L.A. Angels (9-10)
Javier Vazquez (1-2, 8.27 ERA) looks to build on his best start of the season when he takes the ball for the Yankees in the rubber match of a three-game series against the Angels and Scott Kazmir (1-1, 7.45).
Los Angeles got a two-run homer from Kendry Morales in the eighth inning Friday to break a 4-4 tie and win 6-4, then came back Saturday and got mowed down by Andy Pettitte in a 7-1 defeat. The Angels have still won six of nine overall and they’re on additional surges of 4-1 against the A.L. East, 37-16 on Sunday and 47-19 in the third game of the season.
New York remains on positive runs of 64-26 overall (playoffs included), 42-18 against left-handed starters, 19-9 on the road versus southpaws, 7-2 against the A.L. West, 74-33 in the third game of a series and 49-22 on Sunday.
Going back to last season (including the playoffs), the Yankees have won eight of 12 against Los Angeles, but they’re still just 8-20 in their last 28 games at Angel Stadium.
Vazquez, who made 32 starts for the Yankees back in 2004 and re-signed with the club in the offseason, got off to a rough start to 2010, allowing 12 runs in his first two starts covering 11 innings, and losing both contests (including a 5-3 home setback to the Angels). However, he was much sharper in Oakland on Tuesday, allowing three runs in 5 1/3 innings of a 7-3 victory. Still, the veteran right-hander has surrendered 11 runs in 11 innings in two road games so far.
Including the 5-3 home loss on April 14, Vazquez is now 0-2 with a 3.51 ERA in five career starts against the Angels, including 0-0 with a 1.32 ERA in two games in Anaheim (two earned runs allowed in 13 2/3 innings). Going back to 2004, Los Angeles is 3-1 the last four times it has faced Vazquez.
One day after Vazquez struggled against the Angels at home, Kazmir got rocked in a 6-2 loss to the Yankees, yielding all six runs (including three homers) in just four innings. However, he bounced back Tuesday and led the Angels to a 6-5 home win over Detroit, going six innings and allowing two runs on six hits with no walks and seven strikeouts.
Since being traded from Tampa Bay to Los Angeles last September, Kazmir has made five starts at Angel Stadium and gone 3-2 with a 3.77 ERA. However, both losses came against the Yankees (one in the regular season, one in the playoffs). In fact, Kazmir is 0-3 with an 8.36 ERA in three starts against New York since Sept. 23. Prior to that, he had gone 6-4 with a 2.20 ERA in his first 13 appearances (12 starts) against the Bronx Bombers (all with Tampa Bay).
The Yankees are on “over” runs of 12-4-1 on the road, 7-1 against lefty starters, 5-1 behind Vazquez (dating to his last stint with the organization) and 4-0 with Vazquez working on the road. Meanwhile, L.A. has topped the total in four of five against right-handed starters, but otherwise is on “under” stretches of 38-18-3 overall, 4-1-1 in the third game of a series and 7-3 with Kazmir on the hill.
Finally, the over is 17-6-1 in the last 24 Anaheim Stadium clashes between these rivals (1-1 this weekend).
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
DUNKEL INDEX
Dallas at San Antonio
The Mavericks look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 playoff games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Dallas is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by only 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2)
Game 515-516: Boston at Miami
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.766; Miami 119.228
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+2); Under
Game 517-518: Cleveland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 123.385; Chicago 115.383
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 194
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Over
Game 519-520: Dallas at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 124.306; San Antonio 125.859
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+2 1/2); Over
Game 521-522: Denver at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 116.496; Utah 123.068
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 6 1/2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 2; 212
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-2); Over
MLB
Toronto at Tampa Bay
The Blue Jays look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Toronto is the pick (+190) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+190)
Game 901-902: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 15.454; Cincinnati (Bailey) 15.948
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 9
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Under
Game 903-904: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 14.647; Washington (Olsen) 14.869
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+130); Over
Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Morton) 13.254; Houston (Myers) 14.757
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-170); Over
Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 15.732; Milwaukee (Bush) 14.707
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+105); Over
Game 909-910: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 15.433; Colorado (De La Rosa) 16.723
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-165); Under
Game 911-912: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Penny) 15.859; San Francisco (Cain) 14.924
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+100); Under
Game 913-914: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.183; Arizona (Lopez) 14.452
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-120); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-120); Under
Game 915-916: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hanson) 14.011; NY Mets (Pelfrey) 15.239
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under
Game 917-918: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hernandez) 13.835; Boston (Wakefield) 15.428
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-160); 10
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-160); Over
Game 919-920: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Morrow) 16.466; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.955
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-230); 9
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+190); Under
Game 921-922: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Vargas) 15.193; White Sox (Danks) 14.932
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+135); Over
Game 923-924: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Slowey) 16.346; Kansas City (Bannister) 15.128
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-140); Over
Game 925-926: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Porcello) 15.472; Texas (Lewis) 14.571
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under
Game 927-928: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.525; LA Angels (Kazmir) 16.184
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 10
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+125); Over
Game 929-930: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 15.622; Oakland (Gonzalez) 14.916
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under
NHL
Vancouver at Los Angeles
The Kings look to rebound from their 7-2 loss in Game 5 and build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games after allowing 5 goals or more in the previous game. LA is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+105)
Game 79-80: Phoenix at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.260; Detroit 11.760
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-230); 5
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+190); Under
Game 83-84: Vancouver at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 10.966; Los Angeles 11.391
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+105); Over
Marc Lawrence
St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
When Brad Penny takes on his former teammates in San Francisco this afternoon he will do so knowing he has come up a winner in six of his nine carer team starts as a visiting pitcher against the Giants. He's also cashed in eight of his last 10 team starts in April. With Penny in terrific current form, look for the Redbirds to get the better of the Giants here today.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oakland Athletics -110
Bottom Line: I'm fading the Indians' Masterson with this play. Masterson is 0-9 against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons, 0-8 against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse over the last 2 seasons, 0-10 against the money line vs. teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons and 0-8 against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons. In other words, Masters has struggled to win even against some of the weaker hitting teams in the league. Take the A's.
JIM FEIST
ATLANTA BRAVES / NEW YORK METS
TAKE UNDER
The Braves got some bad news on Saturday and it wasn't just the fact they had just lost their fourth straight game and look to be swept by the Mets on Sunday. No, Chipper Jones hurt his hip in Saturday's loss and could be out for a while. "It popped," Jones said. "I couldn't push off at all." The Braves offense has sputtered lately too, scoring just six runs in their last four games and hitting .209 during that stretch. Overall, the Braves are near the bottom of the league in runs scored (4.31), batting average (.228) and home runs (12). The one saving grace for the club so far this season is they are tops in the leagues in taking walks (76). The Braves will have an even tougher time on Sunday, facing one of the hottest pitchers in the league in Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey has jumped out to a 3-0 record and .086 ERA this season. We add to the mix Atlanta's starter, Tommy Hanson, who is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA and I look for a good old fashioned pitchers duel in this contest. Take the UNDER here on Sunday Night.
JR TIPS
Nuggets at Jazz
Today's Free NBA pick matchup is the Denver Nuggets who face the Utah Jazz tonight at 9:30 pm EST for. This Free NBA Pick reports the Nuggets will be the team motivated after Utah outscored Denver 63-41 in the 2 nd and 3 rd quarter. The Nuggets only had two players in double figures with Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups both scoring 25 points as Paul Millsap sparked the Jazz with two layups and a dunk that completely turned around the game early in the second quarter as he finished with career playoff highs of 22 points and 19 rebounds while Deron Williams scored 19 of his 24 points in the second half and Utah got contributions throughout the lineup. Tonight's Free NBA pick reports this Denver Nugget team that went to the Western Conference Finals last year against the Lakers won the series 3-1 against the Jazz during the regular season simply played without discipline, determination and effort in their last matchup. Once Utah made a run, Denver's effort slacked off and they played like a team with no sense of urgency. After a good practice Saturday which included one on one talks with each player, you will see a much different Nugget team tonight who will be ready to play putting you on the right side of this strong Free NBA pick. Denver, our Free NBA pick for tonight is the more talented team and if they play on both sides of the ball, they should win without question although they looked so bad Friday night giving the Jazz wide open shots and their own layup line. Remember, this the NBA playoffs and if one team comes out with a lack of effort, they will look very bad and get blowout in the meantime. Look what happened to the Hawks Saturday. In the NBA, the best team wins the series and is usually the correct NBA pick the majority of the time. The best player in this series is Carmelo Anthony and his supporting cast, defensive stopper Kenyon Martin and Mr. Big shot and NBA Finals MVP Chauncey Billups will make adjustments against this Utah team that is banged up. Andrei Kirilenko is out with a strained left calf, Carlos Boozer is day-to-day with a strained oblique and Mehmet Okur is nursing a sore Achilles' tendon. Deron Williams will get his but the Jazz would need another surprise player to have a career game like Millsap did Friday to win this one against the Nuggets tonight. Denver was humbled and will come out tonight angry and dangerous which gives you a strong FREE NBA Pick winner to close out your Sunday night in the NBA Playoffs.
EZWINNERS
Houston Astros -167
I was on the Astros yesterday for my fifth straight free winner and I am right back on Houston today. After a good start to the season the Pirates are reeling. Pittsburgh has lost five straight games and they send the struggling Charlie Morton to the mound for this final game of a three game series with Houston. Morton might find himself down in the minors or in the bullpen very soon if he continues to pitch the was he has in his first three starts this season. Morton is 0-3 so far this year with an ERA of 16.55 and he does not have good numbers against Houston in his career as he is 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA against the Astros. After a horrible start to the season, the Astros have won six out of their last seven games and Brett Myers has pitched serviceable in his first three starts this season. I look for the Astros to get to Morton and sweep this three game series. Play on Houston.
SPORTS WAGERS
Denver +1.05 over UTAH
The Jazz have been the hungrier and more determined team in this series and that’s why they’re up 2-1. It’s one thing to lose when you’re an inferior team but when you lose because of a lack of effort, it becomes personal and the Nuggets have taken that to heart coming into game four. Denver has no excuses today. They know they’re in big, big trouble should they go down 3-1 in the series and there’s just no way they come out today and not put forth everything they have. If the Jazz weren’t missing two of its best players, losing in Denver and subsequently getting smoked in game three would be understandable but that isn’t the case. After easily winning game one the Nuggets got complacent and paid the price. They beat the Jazz three out of four times during the regular season and that’s when the Jazz was healthy. The Nuggets are an elite team that can play with anyone when the focus is there and after two very humbling losses you can expect a much more determined effort from them today. Play: Denver +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles –1½ +1.09 over WASHINGTON
The Nats are an undervalued team for sure and there’s going to be plenty of opportunities to play them but this isn’t one of them. Scott Olsen was absolutely hammered in his last start and now has an alarming WHIP of 2.09 in two starts. Two starts is not a true measure of anything but Olsen missed most of last year because of surgery and when he did pitch for the Nats he was brutally awful. He allowed 83 hits in just 62 frames last season and had a 1.72 WHIP to go along with an ERA over six. Olsen is also known as a guy that has trouble dealing with tough situations both on and off the field. He’s easily rattled and when he gets in a jam he’s fighting his mind as well as the batter and perhaps that’s one of the reason’s he seldom gets out of jams. His time in this league is almost up and he’ll face one of the best line-ups in the game here. The Dodgers are among the league leaders in every offensive category and it’ll be a huge surprise if they don’t get to this stiff. Chad Billingsley is off to a rough start but he’s still a quality pitcher that’s likely going to win his fair share of games this season. In 103 career starts, Billingsley has a 3.63 ERA and a BAA of .251. Furthermore, Washington hitters are a collective .133 against Billingsley with 1 HR and 27 Ks in 75 AB’s and that gives him a big psychological edge too. Play: Los Angeles –1½ +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +2.06 over TAMPA BAY
Baseball people all agree that Brandon Morrow has all the ability in the world and when and if he reaches his potential he could be dominating. After a rough start to the year, Morrow flashed some of that brilliance in his last start against a very good hitting Royals squad. He went seven full innings and allowed just three hits and one earned run. That start was especially good for his psyche and while he could go either way today the fact is, he’s very talented and at this price he’s absolutely worth a wager. The Blue Jays are still 6-2 on the road, they won the first game of this series and a blown save prevented them from being up 2-0 in this series. David Price is a quality lefty that has already has three quality starts under his belt this season in three attempts. However, Aaron Hill, Adam Lind, Vernon Wells and Jose Bautista are a collective 11-for-28 against Price and that sure helps. Thing is, this isn’t about playing against Price. This choice is all about taking back a sweet tag on the Jays and Morrow in a game they have a very legit shot at winning. Play: Toronto +2.06 (Risking 2 units).
Florida +1.48 over COLORADO
Price here on Chris Volstad and the Marlins is too good to pass up in what is essentially an even up contest. The Marlins are 10-8 while the Rocks are 9-9. In three starts thus far, Volstad has pitched six innings or more in all of them and has yet to allow more than three runs in any of them. He has an impressive BAA of just .208 and when he pitched at Coors last season he went eight full innings and allowed just two runs. The Marlins have been solid against lefties with a 3-1 record and will face another one here in Jorge De La Rosa. De La Rosa has allowed four runs or more in each of his last two starts and allowed five against the light hitting Mets two starts ago. He’s never had much success against the Fish, as his 2-4 record and 7.03 ERA in six lifetime starts will attest to. The Marlins have torched this guy and it’s also worth noting that De La Rosa is coming off a five-inning, 118 pitch outing vs the Nats. He really could be fighting it right now and no matter how you break this one down it’s an overlay. Play: Florida +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
BIG AL
New Jersey Nets at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves
Seemingly, everything is going against Atlanta tonight: Mike Pelfrey, the Mets starter, is 3-0 with an 0.86 ERA; Chipper Jones will miss the game with a hip injury; and key Braves' players Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus are slumping (each is 1-for-12 over the last four games). But Atlanta will hand the ball to Tommy Hanson, and his ERA is a darn good 2.81. Just as impressive, Hanson has held his opponents to a .237 average, and he has 18 strikeouts in just 16 innings. Hanson faced the Mets just one time in his career, and he shut them out over seven innings, while throwing eight strikeouts and allowing just three hits. The Mets are a poor 45-73 (-26 net games) at night over the past two years, and we'll fade them on this Sunday night.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls
Cleveland looks to rebound after their two-point loss at Thursday night, and we think they get the job done here this afternoon. Cleveland won the first two games by double-digits, and then were down by 21 points in the second half in Game Three before storming back and nearly winning the game outright. Cleveland used a small lineup in the second half that game Chicago all sorts of problems, and we expect the Cavs to use that same lineup again here today. And while Chicago played very well on Thursday, they were able to hit a ton of outside shots - not something they are known for doing on a nightly basis. Cleveland takes advantage of the “wake-up call” and wins going away here.
Play on: Cleveland Cavaliers
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on St. Louis Cardinals +103
Penny has been brilliant for the Cards in the early going, posting a 2-0 record with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.952. Cain has been decent for the Giants, but not quite good enough as they are just 1-2 in his starts. In fact, the Giants are 2-6 in Cain's last 8 starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance and 0-5 in his last 5 starts with 5 days of rest. The Cardinals are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss so we can expect them to be very motivated this afternoon. So motivation and solid pitching should not be a factor. The key will be if the bats come around, and I believe they will. Here's why. St. Louis punishes right handed starters. It is 67-49 in road games against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons, scoring an average of 5.4 runs in these games. To zoom in closer, the Cardinals are 7-3 in their last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. We'll make a small play on the Cards in the underdog role here.
Tom Freese
Cardinals at Giants
Prediction: Under
Brad Penny has allowed allowed 4 runs total in his 3 starts this year. St. Louis is 11-4 UNDER their last 15 games and they are 7-3 UNDER their last 10 games vs. righty starters. The Cardinals are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games as an underdog. The Red Birds are 5-1 UNDER when their opponent allowed 2 runs or less in their last game. San Francisco is 5-0 UNDER their last 5 games with the Cardinals and they are 6-0 UNDER their last games overall. The Giants are 23-8-2 UNDER in game 3 of a series and they are 10-2 UNDER with Matt Cain vs. NL Central teams. Cain is 10-4 UNDER with 5 days of rest. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
MTi Sports
Cavaliers at Bulls
Prediction: Over
The Bulls are 12-0 OU (+20.1 ppg) as a dog with two or more days of rest after a game at home in which they had at least five fewer turnovers than their season-to-date average and the Cavaliers are 10-0 OU (+16.4 ppg) as a road favorite after a game in which they allowed at least 50% from the field. Also, Cleveland is 8-0 OU (+16.6 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Lebron James played more than 40 minutes and 10-0 OU (+11.9 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Lebron James scored at least 30 points. Take these two OVER!
Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers +122
The Tigers are showing some nice value in the underdog role today when you consider that plays against all teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (opened at -125) revenging a loss vs. an opponent as a home favorite of -150 or more, a bad team (38% to 46%) playing a team with a winning record, are 37-12 since 1997, including a perfect 12-0 the last 3 seasons. We'll make a small play on this 100% perfect 12-0 money line system Sunday.
Nelly
Cleveland + over Oakland
Oakland has fallen off the hot early pace to the season, now having lost four of the last six games. The A's have topped four runs just once in the last ten games and the lineup is looking a bit thin with three regulars on the DL. The A's still own an 11-8 overall record but they could face another tough match-up Sunday after losing 6-1 on Saturday against the Indians. Justin Masterson is 0-2 on the season but he has struck out 20 batters in just 15 innings of work. Masterson has allowed just five earned runs over three starts and moving to a pitching friendly environment should help his cause this afternoon. While Oakland's bullpen has a much better reputation, these teams have very similar relief pitching numbers at this point in the season. Gio Gonzalez has not shown a great amount of improvement so far this season as he has allowed nine runs in three short outings. Gonzalez has picked up strikeouts but has also walked ten batters. His last two starts came in very favorable pitching venues and yet Gonzalez was still hit hard in games the A's lost. Cleveland has topped six runs four times in the last right as the offense is starting to click and the Indians are 6-3 in the last nine games through a tough schedule despite the losing overall record.