JR O'Donnell
VAN (-125) vs LOS
Vancouver (49-28) get's our call tonight on Ice as the free & paid Nhl J Bombs have been clipping at a 66% rate. Tonight's J Bomb on ice has anti public written all over it. The Cans will get to Kings(46-27) net minder Jonathan Quick and they smell blood to tonight as Quick has been very shaky. Erik Ersberg the Kings back up net minder is not the answer either as we feel the Veteran lead Canucks pour it on..Vancouver will advance behind all everything Mikael Samuelsson, who has been on fire. The public will not be on the right side here tonight as JR O will ride the Vancouver Cans on the road as sharp side J winner.
Chuck O'Brien
L.A. Dodgers at WASHINGTON (+135)
Four out of five free-play winners after the Mets got the mild upset yesterday. Sunday’s complimentary selection also comes from baseball, and I’ll play the Nationals as a home underdog against the Dodgers.
Tough, tough loss for Washington yesterday, as it fell 4-3 to the Dodgers in 13 innings after winning Friday’s series opener, 5-1. Still, I love the Nats (who are still a surprising 9-9 on the season) in this one for two main reasons. Number one, there’s something about daytime baseball that brings out the best in Washington. Despite dropping Saturday’s afternoon affair, the Nats are still 5-5 in day games this year after going 22-26 in day games last year (as opposed to 37-77 under the lights).
The second factor that favors the Nats here is their improving offense is matched up against Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley, who is struggling in a BIG way right now. In his last two starts against the DBacks (home) and Reds (road), he’s given up a total of 13 runs (10 earned) in 8 2/3 innings.
What’s disturbing about Billingsley – who tanked in the second half of last season (3-7, 5.20 ERA post-All-Star break after starting the year 9-4 with a 3.38 ERA) – is that it’s not poor control that’s led to a lot of walks (poor control can be easily corrected). It’s that he’s just leaving beach balls over the middle of the plate, surrendering 15 hits in his last two starts (and 20 hits in 14 innings on the season).
Well, if there’s one thing the Nationals can do, it’s hit (they’re batting .292 in 12 home games this year and they’re batting .294 overall in their last 10). In fact, when you just look at the last 10 games for both teams, you’ll see Washington has a better record (6-4 vs. 5-5), a better team ERA (3.93 vs. 5.07), a better bullpen ERA (3.64 vs. 4.93) and near identical batting average (L.A. is hitting .295 vs. .294 for the Nats).
Washington has also won six of the last 10 against L.A., including five of eight at home. And the home team is on a 13-4 run in this rivalry.
3♦ WASHINGTON
Michael Cannon
Boston (+1') at MIAMI
Take the Celtics over the Heat.
Boston is going to put Miami out of its misery this afternoon on its own home court.
The Heat just don’t match up well with the Celtics. Boston has won and covered all three games in this series and are on further runs of 8-0 SU in the last eight and 14-1 SU in the last 15.
The Celtics have cashed in eight of the last nine visits to South Beach and the SU winner is 11-2 ATS in the last 13 head-to-head meetings.
Miami knows its season is about to end, so you have to wonder how the Heat will respond once they face some adversity today. It’s hard for a team to be there 100 percent mentally when they know elimination is staring them right in the face.
Take the Celtics as they get it done over the Heat.
2♦ BOSTON
Minnesota (-135) at KANSAS CITY
Take the Twins as the big road favorite over the Royals.
I know it’s an expensive price, but Minnesota is absolutely the right side today.
The Twins will start Kevin Slowey, who is 2-1 on the year with a 2.45 ERA. The right-hander is a perfect 4-0 in four career starts against Kansas City with a 3.30 ERA.
KC will counter with Brian Bannister and I have a feeling the Twins are going to get their licks in on him. The right-hander is 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in 10 career games against Minnesota.
Take the Twins as they grab the road win.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Stephen Nover
Dallas at SAN ANTONIO (-2')
I backed the Spurs in Game 3 with a 15-Dime play and now that it's confirmed Manu Ginobili will play, I'll come back with San Antonio at home in Game 4.
Ginobili suffered a broken nose in Game 3, but came back strong to lead the Spurs to a 96-92 victory.
The Spurs finally are healthy with Tony Parker showing no ill effects from a broken hand and George Hill past his ankle injury. The two point guards combined for 40 points in San Antonio's Game 3 victory.
The Mavericks can't score anywhere near the basket. Their centers are just too limited offensively.
Dallas unleashed a small, three-guard lineup against the Spurs in the last game. That provided a spark. But the Spurs will be prepared for that now.
Dirk Nowitzki can't do it alone. He's the Mavericks' lone consistent scoring threat. He'll draw plenty of defensive attention. Caron Butler was so bad that he was pulled in Game 3.
The bottom line here is this isn't the regular season where the Mavericks put together the best road mark. This is post-season where half-court and defense rules. The Spurs are healthy and home. That's enough for them to cover this short number.
2♦ SPURS
Philadelphia at ARIZONA
To go over a total this high in the National League you better have multiple reasons.
There are four strong factors that justify Philadelphia and Arizona each scoring at least five runs in this matchup.
First, there are two powerful offenses playing in a hitter-friendly park, Chase Field. The Phillies ranked third in the National League in batting average and runs scored entering the weekend. Arizona was tied for first in home runs in the National League.
Second, we're not talking a Roy Halladay-Dan Haren pitching matchup. Instead we have Kyle Kendrick versus Rodrigo Lopez.
Kendrick has allowed 16 hits and five walks in 13 2/3 innings for a 7.24 ERA. He always has been less effective on the road than at home. He wouldn't even be in the Phillies' starting rotation if it weren't for injuries.
Lopez has a 12-23 mark with an ERA of 5.65 since 2006, while pitching for Baltimore, Colorado and Philadelphia last year. There are reasons why each of those teams gave up on him. He's simply not very good - and he's suddenly not getting better at age 34.
Lopez wouldn't even be in Arizona's rotation if it weren't for an injury to Brandon Webb.
Third, both teams have had serious bullpen problems - both in middle relief and at closer.
Put all these factors together and the result should spell over.
2♦ OVER
Karl Garrett
Dallas at SAN ANTONIO (-2')
Saturday comp play winner on the Yankees-Angels Under the total. Now 16-8 the last 24 days with my comp plays.
For Sunday in the NBA, the G-Man is going to play the under in the Dallas-San Antonio contest.
Through four games in this series, the teams have gone 3-0-1 under the posted total, with Friday night's game holding 10 points under the posted price.
That now makes the low in this series 5-1-1 dating back to the regular season.
At home this year, the Spurs are 37-45-3 under the posted total, and it is obvious that if San Antonio wants to win this series, then they need to keep the games at a slower, possession-by-possession pace.
I see Game 5 staying at the slower pace, and I see another under in the cards for the Mavericks and Spurs.
G-Man going under.
3♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
Pittsburgh at HOUSTON
Houston started the season 0-8.
The Astros have now won seven of their last nine games and are acting like they're going to challenge for the NL Central Division. Now out of the cellar in the division, the Astros have scored 29 runs over the last seven games while hitting .267.
Today I expect them to roll past Charlie Morton, who is 0-3 with a 16.55 ERA this season. He's coming in off the worst outing he's had this season, as he allowed six runs and walked three in just one inning against the Brewers on Tuesday.
The right-hander, who is winless with a 7.88 ERA in three previous starts against the Astros, has given up 20 runs in 10-1/3 innings.
Blowout win in the making for Houston.
1♦ ASTROS RUN LINE
Chris Jordan
Denver at UTAH (-2)
The Jazz were making statements long before the playoffs began, and despite injuries, they looked like a team that could be a thorn in someone's side. And while the Nuggets are visibly lost without coach George Karl, Utah skipper Jerry Sloan - who finished fourth in the recent voting for 2009-10 NBA Coach of the Year - is quietly leading his team through the No. 4 seed with relative ease.
I suspect the Nuggets will show up tonight, playing with a sense of urgency, but I still don't think they come away with a win. After all, in the Jazz's 105-93 win in Game 3, Denver's Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups combined for 50 points. The other three starters - Arron Afflalo, Kenyon Martin and Nene - combined for 18 points on 4-for-14 shooting.
I know the Nuggets can be very potent and are dangerous offensively, but the Jazz are averaging 110.7 points on 51.3 percent shooting in this series.
Energy Solutions Arena will be rocking tonight, and the Jazz will feed off that energy to pull away for a commanding 3-1 series lead.
1♦ JAZZ
Derek Mancini
Denver at UTAH (-2)
Now 6-0 with NBA Playoffs Free Plays, incl. the Thunder over the Lakers 110-89 Saturday! Let's keep it going with my pick in tonight's Nuggets-Jazz Game 4 match up.
Want to know how to beat an athletically superior team? See Game 3 of this series, as coach Sloan and his Jazz put on a freaking clinic. Just 9 turnovers against 27 assists, more rebounds (43 to 40), and more points in the paint (44 to 40)... That's how you beat a team like the Nuggets, and that formula works again in Game 4.
It wasn't like Anthony or Billups got shutdown either, combining for 50 of the Nuggets 93 points. It was Denver's role players who got neutralized, and none moreso than Nene, who got outplayed by Fesenko in a match up that was supposed to be "all-Nuggets." Denver is clearly missing the calming influence of coach Karl, as Dantley gets routinely outcoached by Sloan in-game.
Denver's road woes are no secret, going 15-22-5 ATS away, and they showed why in Game 3. Besides a serious lack of confidence on offense (by anyone not named Anthony or Billups), it was obvious the Nuggets got frustrated Friday. From the turnovers to the ill-advised 3-pointers, the Nuggets are far too inconsistent to trust against a Utah team firing on all cylinders at home right now. Lay the points with Utah, as they take care of Denver Sunday.
3♦ UTAH
Philadelphia at ARIZONA (even)
Good spot for the Snakes, who catch the Phillies in the midst of a drought at the plate, batting .214 in the first 2 games of the series. Great news for former Philly Rodrigo Lopez (1-0, 3.50 ERA) who gets the nod this afternoon. He's been fantastic at Chase Field thus far, surrendering 3 runs over 13 innings (2 starts).
Despite an impressive 8 shutout innings at Atlanta Tuesday, I'm not buying Kendrick (0-0, 7.24 ERA) in this start. He's always had issues on the road, and his 5.11 career ERA against Arizona isn't insipring any confidence here either. He'll be facing an Arizona club that's 2-0 in day games vs righties, and averaging 5 runs/game against righties at Chase overall!
A lot of gamblers down on the Arizona bullpen (with good reason), but there's enough bad bullpen play to go around in this match up. Both 'pens have been unreliable at best (and terrible at worst), and the Phillies 5.14 ERA over their L28 innings is almost as disappointing as Arizona's struggles. Still a good spot for the Snakes, who should feast on Kendrick today. It's Arizona (Lopez) over Philadelphia (Kendrick) Sunday.
2♦ ARIZONA
Bobby Maxwell
Denver (+2) at UTAH
I'm on an 85-65-3 run with my FREE plays and tonight I have a winner for you in the NBA playoffs as I grab the points with the Nuggets in Utah to take on the Jazz in Game 4 of this series.
Denver is the second-best team in the Western Conference, regardless of how this series has gone or what the seedings are. Tonight you’ll see the Nuggets come out and play like a top team as they are going to go into the Jazz’s house and take Game 4 and even this series 2-2.
Both big names delivered in Game 3 for the Nuggets as Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups scored 25 points apiece, but nobody else came with them. They have to get more on the inside as they can’t have Kenyon Martin and Nene combining for 2-for-11 shooting and just 10 points. They need 10 points each from those guys and 20 rebounds.
Denver is 4-1-1 ATS after a non-cover and 6-2 as a playoff underdog, but they have to find a way to contain Deron Williams a little. He’s been the best player in this series to this point and he’ll likely have a big game tonight, but the Nuggets can’t let Paul Milsap have a huge double-double night inside.
This one is going to be a dogfight, right down to the final minute. But look for Carmelo to take and make all the big shots for Denver down the stretch. And much more spirit needs to come from the Nuggets’ bench.
I’m going to grab the points with Denver, but I fully expect them to win this thing outright. This series just has the feeling that it’s going seven games. I’ll play the Nuggets tonight.
2♦ DENVER
Jeff Benton
Bad call with Saturday’s freebie on the Lakers. However, I’m still on runs of 63-34-2, 50-27-2 and 24-12 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, it’s back to the baseball diamond – where I’ve nailed eight of 11 free selections on the season – and I’ll back the Padres at Cincinnati.
When it comes to surprise teams through the first three weeks of the season, San Diego has to be at the top of the list. The Padres lost six of their first nine games but have since ripped off eight wins in a row, including the first two games of this weekend’s series against the Reds by a combined score of 15-4.
What’s more, going back to last season, San Diego has defeated the Reds five straight times – all in Cincinnati – by the combined tally of 32-11, and it has won eight of the last nine meetings since the beginning of 2009.
Today, San Diego once again has the pitching advantage if you go by the numbers. Padres lefty Clayton Richard is 0-2 in three starts, but he’s got a 3.38 ERA. His problem has been a lack of run support, but that figures to change today for two reasons: 1) the normally light-hitting Padres have scored five runs or more in three straight games and six of eight during their winning streak, and 2) they’re facing Reds right-hander Homer Bailey in this one.
Bailey, who has yet to live up to the hype that he carried into the big leagues two years ago, is 0-1 with a 7.47 ERA, and he’s allowing more than two baserunners per inning. Bailey’s last two starts have been identically poor: 5 1/3 innings with eight hits and five runs allowed.
Finally, San Diego has won seven straight games against right-handed starters, five straight against N.L. Central competition and is 5-2 in Richard’s last seven starts, while the Reds have dropped eight of their last 10 overall and 15 of 21 when Bailey takes the mound as a ‘dog.
4♦ SAN DIEGO PADRES
Scott Delaney
Los Angeles at Washington
Looking for my fifth straight total winner on the diamond, not to mention my 16th out of 20 on the young season with this game today. That's right, not only do I deliver winners monthly, as the No. 1 handicapper at this site, but I am also on a 15-4 run with MLB freebies!!!
Wednesday was the Under in the Phillies/Braves game.
Thursday it was the Under in the Rockies/Nationals game.
Friday I scored with the Under in the Cardinals/Giants game.
Yesterday the fourth straight Under with the Yankees and Halos staying low.
Today I'm playing an Over, as I see the Dodgers/Nationals going high.
Though the Nationals have stayed under in three straight, the Dodgers have the bats to take this over and force a high-scoring game. They've done so in seven of their last 10, and in 13 of their first 17 games this year.
In facing Scott Olsen, the Dodgers should be able to get the bats going, as he's been in two shaky starts thus far, both of which have gone Over. He has an 11.74 ERA after his first two outings, and the Nationals have soared past the number in four of his last five home starts.
With Los Angeles, I know Chad Billingsley is on the bump for the men in blue, but he hasn't lived up to the hype as the heir apparent to this staff. Along with his 1-0 record, he has a 7.07 ERA and all three of his starts have gone Over. And the Dodgers have gone Over in 10 of his last 13 road starts.
Make note, the Over is on a 7-2 run the last nine meetings. Play this one high.
3♦ Dodgers/Nationals OVER
Craig Davis
Today's free play is the Bulls and Cavs OVER the total. I was completely unimpressed with the Cavs defense the last two games, especially in Game 3 where they seemed somewhat lifeless and flat. Cleveland allowed Chicago to score over 100 points in the last two games of this series, and this is a Cavs team that allows 95 PPG for the season. Cleveland's focus tonight will likely not be stopping Chicago as much as it will be getting other players not named LeBron James involved. Chicago doesn't want to change a thing as they have actually played pretty well in their last two vs. the Cavs, but even more so in Game 3. Don't let the close final score fool you... Chicago dominated this game offensively and Cleveland had no answer. Nothing leads me to believe this game will be any different. I'm not saying Chicago or Cleveland will win this game because, honestly, I have no idea. All I know is that both teams should, again, score more than 100 points. I like the OVER as my free play of the day.
3♦ OVER
Brett Atkins
Today I'm in the NBA playoffs for a free winner as I go with the Celtics on the road, looking to close out Miami.
Miami already struggles to score points with Dwyane Wade the only consistent threat in that entire lineup. But worse than that is the fact Paul Pierce essentially ended this series with his game-winning shot Friday night, putting the Celtics up 3-0.
The tendency is for teams that trail 3-0 to not be there mentally in Game 4, and I fully expect that to be the case today as Miami isn’t going to have enough to take down the Celtics. The Boston mainstays did the job on Friday with Pierce getting 32 and Ray Allen adding 24. Miami is just 1-6-1 ATS at home and 2-7-1 ATS after a straight-up loss.
Boston has beaten the Heat seven straight times and cashed in six of those seven. I’ll play the Celtics to end this series today.
5♦ BOSTON
Jay McNeil
Toronto at Tampa Bay
Playing the Run Line with the Rays today, as David Price will outshine Brandon Morrow on bump, and the AL East leading Rays will continue to roll.
Price is 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in three career starts against Toronto, while the southpaw is 9-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 14 appearances at Tropicana Field.
He'll get the run support, as the Rays should have no trouble getting to Morrow, who has 7.31 ERA on the season and now faces a Tampa Bay team that has won 10 of 12 overall.
Play the Rays big.
1♦ RAYS RUN LINE
Joel Tyson
Get a load of the Spurs! San Antone starts the series with a loss at Dallas, and has responded with back-to-back wins and covers against the favored Mavericks.
Let's go with the Spurs to come through once again on their home floor knowing full well that 3-1 is a whole lot better than 2-2 heading back to Dallas for Game 5.
San Antonio is now on a 20-8 spread run their last 28, and the home team in this series stands at 8-3 against the spread the last 11 series meetings.
Home team the call again tonight.
3♦ SAN ANTONIO