Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday April, 29

Sam Martin

Nuggets at Lakers
Prediction: Under

Based on average scoring outputs for these teams this total of just over 200 points looks about right, but a closer look at how these teams fare against each other suggests the final score should fall well below this mark. Only once in the last five games has either one of these two teams reached triple-digits against each other, and each of the last six meetings in this series have all gone under the total. These teams are no strangers to playoff basketball, and they both know that defense is the key to winning. Look for both teams to finish in the 90's here and for this game to fall well short of the posted total.

Steve Merril

Rays vs. Rangers
Play: Under 9

Tampa Bay and Texas wrap up their first series of the year on Sunday night. David Price looks to continue his good pitching after shutting out the Angels his last time out. Price is 3-1 with a 2.62 ERA in four starts giving up just one home run in 24 innings. He is still looking for his first win all-time against the Rangers; he is 0-6 with a 5.30 ERA against Texas. Price's last three starts against Texas haven't been awful; he has allowed just 3 runs in each game over at least six innings of work. Josh Hamilton (2-13), Ian Kinsler (3-12), David Murphy (2-8), Mike Napoli (2-11), Yorvit Torrealba (0-6) and Michael Young (2-12) all have poor numbers against the Rays’ starter. Ironically, the Texas offense hasn't been as spectacular at home where they've gone Under the total in the majority of their games this season. Price should be able to go long enough that he’ll minimize the usage of Tampa Bay’s struggling bullpen. Derek Holland is 2-1 with a 4.79 ERA in four starts. He got rocked his last time out by the Yankees in Arlington. This came after two solid starts against the Red Sox and Mariners. Holland is 4-1 with a 5.79 ERA in six career starts against the Rays, but Carlos Pena (0-6), Sean Rodriguez (1-7) and Ben Zobrist (3-12) have bad numbers against the Rangers southpaw. Tampa Bay is hitting right around .255 as a team. During their last winning streak, the team struggled to hit resulting in multiple Unders. The Rangers’ bullpen continues to be a strength posting an ERA right around 2.00. We expect a low-scoring game tonight between the Rays and Rangers.

Rob Vinciletti

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Qualifies in a nice system that has cashed 10 of 13 times and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored win at -140 or more, won by 5 or more runs and had 10 or more hits with 4 or less men left on base, vs an opponent off a +140 or higher Road dog loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs with 5 or more hits. The Mariners are 4-12 on Turf and have lost 9 of the last 11 here in Toronto. The Jays are averaging over 5 runs per game in day games and will look to take Advantage of Seattle lefty J. Vargas who has a 7.52 era vs the Jays in 2 career losses. Look for Toronto to take the rubber game here today.

Ben Burns

Brewers @ Cardinals
PICK: Under 7.5

The first two games of this series have both topped the total, each producing double-diigts in total combined runs. However, I'm expecting a much lower affair for this afternoon's finale.

Even with the high-scoring results the past two days, the "under" remains a highly profitable 15-5, excluding "pushes," the last 20 times that the Cardinals were a host in this series, 11-3 the last 14.

Garcia gets the call for the home team and he's been outstanding. He's made four starts and has a 2.49 ERA including a 1.29 ERA at home. Last time out, he allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings. In his previous start, he allowed one run through seven innings. Note that he has yet to give up a home run this season.

Greinke's numbers admittedly aren't as good as Garcia's. However, the former Cy Young Award winner has certainly been coming around of late. He's allowed two runs in each of his last two starts, a span of 13 combined innings. With a 28 Ks (in 23 2/3 innings) against only five walks, Greinke is clearly still able to dominate hitters. The Cardinals know all about that. Greinke faced them on 4/7 and allowed just four hits through seven shutout innings, striking out seven without walking a batter.

With Greinke also backed by a St. Louis bullpen which has been excellent, consider the UNDER.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Mets @ Rockies
PICK: Over 9.5

Everyone is talking about the 49 year old Rockies pitcher Jamie Moyer. He has recently become the oldest pitcher in MLB history to record a win, despite the fact that the old man can't crack 80 MPH on his fastball. The crafty veteran has managed to keep his team in ball games this season, and despite only having one victory in four starts, he has yet to be really roughed up.

I have already cashed in a few wins going against Moyer this year, however I am still left unsatisfied. I have been waiting for Father Time to catchup with old man Moyer, and there is no better time than Sunday for this to happen. There are a long list of pitchers who have nightmares of being rocked at Coors Field, and I expect that list to grow on Sunday when the Rockies face the Mets.

Johan Santana will take the mound for the Mets, he has pitched well so far in this season, but has yet to record a win. I do think Santana will fare better than the Rockies starter in this one, but I don't think the 33 year old is going to pitch a shutout at Coors Field. The last two games between these two teams in this series were both high scoring affairs, and with a 49 year old man facing off against a winless opponent, there is no reason to expect that to change on Sunday.

Sean Murphy

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins
PICK: Kansas City Royals

Note: This is the same writeup that I used for Saturday's 10* play on the Royals. That game was postponed, but we now have the same pitching matchup going on Sunday. I'll play the Royals again, albeit at a lower rating.

The Twins have lost six games in a row, and we've seen no signs of that slump coming to an end any time soon.

Even on a night when they belted out 12 hits and scored six runs, they still fell short last night. After scoring exactly six runs in back-to-back games, I'm expecting some regression at the plate today, and that doesn't bode well with Jason Marquis taking the hill.

The Royals are at the opposite end of the spectrum. They went through an ugly 12-game losing streak of their own recently, but have come out of it, winning each of their last three contests. They still managed to gut out a victory last night, despite spot starter Everett Teaford struggling mightily on the mound.

Today, the Royals will hand the ball to veteran left-hander Bruce Chen. He doesn't get a lot of respect, despite the fact that he's been a solid starter for the Royals over the last couple of seasons. Bettors can't seem to forget the ugly stretch that saw him go 1-13 with an ERA well into the 6's from 2006 through 2009. Over the last two seasons, he went 24-15, and last year lowered his ERA to 3.77.

Despite Chen's 0-4 team record this season, he's actually pitched quite well, posting a 2.52 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. Now that the Royals have busted out of their slump, Chen should see the wins start to come.

As I mentioned, the Twins will counter with Jason Marquis. To say that he's been awful in two starts this season would be an understatement. Of course, he has gone up against the Yankees and Red Sox, but that's still no excuse for posting a 7.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP.

Last year, Marquis went 8-5 with a respectable 3.95 ERA with the Nationals, but things went south once he was dealt to the D'Backs, where he made only three starts, going 0-1 with a 9.63 ERA. Prior to last year's stint with the Nationals, Marquis hadn't posted an ERA lower than 4.04 ERA since 2004. Pitching for a weak Twins club isn't going to help his cause here in 2012.

While I hesitate to trust the Royals bullpen, especially with Jonathan Broxton closing games, it's worth noting that Twins relievers have been just as bad. The thinking here is that the Royals can build enough of a margin against Marquis early, that we won't have to worry too much about the latter innings. Kansas City's offense has really picked up the pace over the last few games, and we should see an extension of that today.

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays

When the Rays wrap up their three-game visit to Texas Sunday night on ESPN Tampa will send David Price to the mound against Derek Holland in a match up of southpaws at the Ballpark at Arlington. Price enters the game sporting a 9-5 career mark in team starts during the month of April, including 6-2 the last eight. With Price back in the groove and Holland in off a rocky start against the Yankees this past Monday, and just 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA at home this season, expect the Price to be right here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Tampa Bay.

Jimmy Boyd

St. Louis Cardinals -116

The Brewers have been dominated in the first two games of this series and have now lost six in a row on the road and six of their last seven versus St. Louis.

Greinke has been phenomenal at home but gave up 8 earned in 3 2-3 in his lone road start. He wasn't nearly as good on the road last season and the Brewers are 1-5 in his last 6 starts as a road underdog and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

Garcia has an ERA of 2.49 on the season and also boasts a lifetime 3.43 ERA versus Milwaukee. The Cardinals are 19-7 in his last 26 starts as a home favorite, 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 4-1 in his last 5 starts vs. the Brewers. We'll take St. Louis.

Joseph D'Amico

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -1½

Let's face it, Pierce is 34, Garnett is 35, and Allen is 36. This is a team that is LONG in the tooth. Ray Allen will most-likely sit out with an ankle injury that has kept the Guard sidelined for the last 10 games of the season. Talk has it that Allen tried to practice on Friday and was unable to do so. Whispers also say that Paul Pierce is hampered by a sprained left toe that is really nagging him. Boston has been outscored by almost 3PPG this season as a visitor and lost by 5 points on the 20th in Atlanta. Remember that back in 2008 (when Boston won the title), they needed 7 games to beat a young and in experienced Atlanta squad. At 23-10 at home, the Hawks were one of the NBA's best teams when hosting. Johnson, Smith, Teague, Williams, and Green are teaming up for 68 PPG. Zaza Pachulia will probably sit this one out due to a foot injury. But it won't matter. The youthful unit will have the Celtics on their heels in transition the whole game. This is a Hawks team that posts 99.1 PPG at home. The trio of Johnson, Smith, and Teague will score at will over a Boston team that has trouble facing physical, young squads. The Hawks are 7-1 ATS their L8 Conference Quarter Final games, 10-4-1 ATS their L5 games played as a favorite, and 10-4 ATS their L14 games played overall. Take Atlanta.

Ross Benjamin

Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Angels starter Ervin Santana has been horrible in 4 starts this season. Going back to last season Santana is 0-8 in his last 8 team starts. Santana is also a dismal 3-8 in his last 11 team starts versus Cleveland including 1-4 in the last 5 at Cleveland. It may be surprising to many to know that the Indians are 57-25 in their last 82 games as a favorite. The Indians starter Derek Lowe has been very good in 2 home starts this season allowing just 1 earned run in 13.0 innings of work. Play on the Cleveland Indians.

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Seattle Mariners

The Blue Jays look to win their first game behind pitcher Henderson Alvarez, who is 0-2 this season with a decent ERA of 4.10. The Blue Jays are 11-10 this season. What is strange though is that the Jays are 0-4 in Alvarez's starts, but 11-6 otherwise. Alvarez has pitched well enough for wins however, allowing just two earned runs his last start, a 2-1 loss at Baltimore. Meanwhile, the M's Jason Vargas will go for his third straight win on Sunday and is 3-1 overall this season with a 3.45 ERA. The Blue Jays are still looking for slugger Jose Bautista's bat to come alive. The slugger is hitting just .187 this season with three home runs. This line is just too big on a pitcher that has been in bad luck this year. Add to that the fact that Vargas has done well for the M's and I see this line as a bit out of kilter. I'm going to take the visiting dog here on Sunday.

Dave Cokin

Chicago Cubs vs Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are not good, but they're at their best when ace Matt Garza takes the mound, as he gives them a chance to win nearly every game. Kyle Kendrick is a Quad-A starter who even the Cubbies should knock around. I'll take the Cubs to win this one.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

San Diego/ San Francisco Under 7: Gonna follow the trend above for this one as we get a couple of lefties squaring off against each other and the Under is 2-8 in the NL in that situation this year. Clayton Richard has struggled this year, with a 5.11 ERA overall, including a 7.13 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he does have a solid 3.09 ERA in 8 career starts vs the Giants. He has struggled some here, with a 4.28 ERA in n5 starts, but he will be taking on a Giants squad that averages just 2.8 rpg in their own park, including just 2.2 rpg in their last 6 here. Madison Bumgarner comes in in fine form with a 1.77 ERA and an 0.93 WHIP in his last 3 starts, while his lone home start produced just 6 total runs. Bumgarner has struggled at home vs the Pads, but they have really struggled to score as well this year. The Padres do score better on the road (4.12 rpg), but overall in their last 5 games they have averaged just 2.2 rpg and have hit .207. Only the Pirates and Padres score less runs at home than the Giants and that should allow Clayton Richard to keep their scoring down, While Madison should have a very nice outing vs an inept SD offense. San Fran's 2 home day games have put up just 5 ruins in each game and that's about as many as I see this one putting up.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Kansas City -114 over MINNESOTA: Might as well just copy and paste this play from yesterday. LOL The Twins have been horrible in day games this year, going just 1-6 and they have been outscored by 2.3 rpg in those games. Today they look for Jason Marquis to get their 2nd day win of the year, but it will not be easy as he has been bad so far, with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his 2 starts. Making matters worse for him is the fact that the Royals bats have waken up, averaging 6.3 rpg in their last 3 games and those numbers should continue vs a Minnesota team that has an ERA of 6.20 at home this year. Minnesota has put up 6 runs in each of their last 2 games and they hit .293 at home, but they will take on a tough pitcher in Bruce Chen today. Chen has has some bad luck as he has a 2.52 ERA and a very good 0.92 WHIP, but he is 0-2 in his 4 starts, while the royals are 0-4 in those starts. The Royals have averaged just 1.5 rpg in his starts, but that should change today vs this bad twins staff that has a 7.3 ERA in their last 5 starts overall and a 6.20 ERA at home on the year. Oh yeah the Minnesota starters have an ERA of 9.49 in their last 5 games. Getting away from home has really helped this Royals team as they are starting to play like they were supposed to this year. They have dug themselves a big hole, but with the teams ahead of them struggling there is still time and winning games like this are a must. Look for Chen to get his first win of the year are the Royals run their win streak to 4 games.

Boston -123 over Chicago: Gonna ride a hot Boston team here. The Red Sox can hit, we all know that, but last night they showed they can pitch as well as they won the game 1-0 and 2 shutout innings from their beleaguered pen.The Boston Pen has now posted an 0.66 ERA in their last 5 games after such a rough start. Boston has given up just 7 total runs in the series and today they send out Josh Beckett, who looks to be rounding into form after a rough start. Josh allowed 7 ER in 4.2 innings in his opener vs Detroit, but have since gone 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston is just 1-2 in Josh'd last 3 starts here, but he has a good 3.42 ERA in those starts and will be taking on a struggling White Sox offense here. The ChiSox come in having scored just 2 rpg and have hit just .198 in their last 5 games, while at home they have averaged just 3.5 rpg and have hit just .223 for the year. Boston scores 5.6 rpg on the road, including 7.5 rpg on this current trip and they should be able to put up some runs on Gavin Floyd, who is 1-3 with a 3.60 ERA. Being held to 1 run last night will not make this Boston offense happy and they should explode for more runs today, while their pitching continues to dominate this weak hitting Chicago team.

LA Angels/ Cleveland Over 8.5: Really looks like Vegas wants you to take the Under in this one as the stats really don't add up to 8.5 runs, but I feel we will see the offenses break out today. Ceveland has put up just 2.4 rpg over their last 5 games, while at home they have hit just .203 and have scored just 3.2 rpg, but tyhey should breakout today vs Ervin Santana. Ervin comes in with a 7.23 ERA overall and an 8.18 ERA on the road, but more alarming is the fact that he has allowed 10 HR's in just 23.2 innings of work so far, including 6 in just 11 innings of road work. Ervin has a career 4.83 ERA as a starter on the road and a 4.57 ERA in his career during March/ April. He hasn't pitched that badly here with a 3.60 ERA in 5 starts, but he does have a 4.29 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Tribe overall. Derek Lowe has faced the Halos just once since 2008 (last year) and he allowed 3 ER on 5 hits and 5 walks in 6 innings of work in that game. He has pitched very well at home with an 0.69 ERA in 2 starts, but that kind of number won't last, especially vs a strong LA offense that is really looking to breakout. Other than Ervins shitty pitching the numbers just don't add up to 8.5 runs in this one and that is why I will go the other way. The offenses are due for a big game and they should get it today vs a bad pitcher and an overachieving pitcher.

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ Colorado Under 9.5: The Pens are bad, but these two starters should go deep. Plus we have two lefties in this one. See stat above.

NY YANKS -1.5 (+105) Over Detroit: Yanks offense should have field day vs Scherzer, While CC quiets Detroit's bats. Easy Yanks win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Washington/ LA Dodgers Over 6.5: I know the stat above, but have a good feeling that this one will put at least 7 runs on the board.

ST LOUIS -1.5 (+178) over Milwaukee: With Jay back in lineup the Cards offense is hitting once again and they have outscored their opponents by 3.88 rpg at home on the year. Anther easy win by St Louis here.

SPORTS WAGERS

Updated series Nashville -110 over PHOENIX

Eventually the Coyotes good fortune is going to run out. They were dominated in round 1 by the Blackhawks but Mike Smith stole the series and the Coyotes advanced. They were completely dominated in game 1 of this series but Predators goaltender, Pekka Rinne did not make one big save when needed and the Coyotes won 4-3 in OT despite playing the entire game in their own end. The good news is that the Preds scored three times and while Smith was brilliant again, three goals is very likely going to win against this offensively challenged host 80% of the time.game The Preds are -123 in this game but if they win here, they will then shoot up to about -180 in the updated series price and therefore we’ll play them to win the series. The Predators are simply the vastly superior team that should be up 1-0 while the Coyotes can’t keep winning games by being so badly outplayed. Play: Nashville to win series -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Philadelphia/NEW JERSEY over 5½ +120

The Flyers and Penguins played a crazy series that broke records in the goal scoring department. The total for game 1 was 6 under -120 and by game 6 it was 7 over -120. The thinking is that this series is going to be much tighter and that Philadelphia will focus more on defense. While that may be true, there’s an old cliché that suggests a leopard can’t change its spots. The Flyers are an offensive juggernaut. They have plenty of people that can put the puck in the net. What they don’t have is a reliable goaltender that can steal a game or two for them. Nor do they have a shutdown defense. Ilya Bryzgalov is shaky both mentally and physically. He thrived in Phoenix in his three-year stint there in the regular season because nobody cared or paid attention. As soon as the playoffs began and the spotlight that goes with it, he froze. And how about New Jersey? One team in its series with Florida scored at least three times in every game. Had Florida had some goal scorers, they would’ve won because Marty Brodeur was average at best. The Devils are known for their defensive play and this total is based on their reputation. They’re simply not a defensive team anymore. There were an abundance of scoring chances in their series against Florida and every game, with the exception of one, had five or more goals. Asking for one more from these two is not a stretch. For this game to stay under 5½, both defenses and goaltenders are going to have to be stellar and that’s very unlikely to happen. Play: Philadelphia/NEW Jersey over 5½ +120 (Risking 2 units).