SPORTS WAGERS
MEMPHIS -5½ over L.A. Clippers
Of all the first round series this one is being considered to be the closest matchup. Yet, the Grizzlies are a bigger favorite than the Lakers are over Denver both in game 1 and in the series. Why? Perhaps the sharp odds makers know something that mostly of us don’t. Perhaps the Clippers inability to make free throws makes them vulnerable in the fourth quarter. The Clip Joint also lacks bench strength and while they do have two legit stars in Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the talent takes a significant drop after that pair. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are well-balanced, playoff experienced after last year’s fascinating near upset over Oklahoma, extremely well-coached, own a strong bench providing the ability, talent and desire to end this series quickly and efficiently. Gilbert Arenas has exceeded expectations since signing with the Grizz. Everywhere you look, be it offense, defense, coaching, shooting or points in the paint, Memphis has something strong to offer. The Clippers do not and while the line looks enticing to Clipper backers, this is playoff basketball and it’s an entirely different feel and intensity level than the Clippers have seen in a long, long time. Play: Memphis -5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Boston/ATLANTA under 179½
This series has plenty of bulletin board material to go along with two clubs that despise one another. Kevin Garnett called Jeff Teague "a nobody" earlier this year and the Celtics basically tanked a game in Atlanta last week based on the arrogant logic that they didn't need home-court advantage to beat the Hawks. The Celtics also know they they’re not going to outrun and/or outgun anyone. Expect the defensive intensity to be turned up in this one, as Boston is a playoff team that wins with defense and that’s all there is to it. In the two games that these played with their starters during the regular season, Boston won them both by scores of 79-76 and 88-86 in OT. With no bench and no centers to speak of, there’s nothing to suggest that this one will produce 30 or 40 points more than those two aforementioned regular season games. Play: Boston/Atlanta under 179½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
SPORTS WAGERS
L.A. Angels +101 over CLEVELAND
Boy, 254 million doesn’t buy you what it used to. Albert Pujols is batting .226 with four RBI’s and no jacks. They could have got a guy to do that for about $100,000. All kidding aside, Albert will wake up soon and the Angels are likely going to start winning some games too. The Halos are 7-14 but they’re not a .333 team. Their awful start allows us to take back some value on them and that’s precisely the plan. There’s also a big correction forthcoming in Earvin Santana’s numbers. Santana is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.23. Santana is a stable, second-tier pitcher that has been consistently good for years. The reason for his high ERA is a 65% strand rate and that’s just bad luck. All of his numbers are skewed the wrong way but don’t expect it to last. Derek Lowe is the complete opposite with a stellar ERA of 3.00. However, he’s allowed 32 hits in 24.2 innings for a BAA of .323. His WHIP of 1.67 doesn’t coincide with a 3.00 ERA. In 24 innings, he’s walked eight and struck out eight. Lowe's four starts look like a continuation of his late-career skills slide but it hasn’t shown up in his ERA yet. That likely ends here. Play: L.A. Angels +101 (Risking 2 units).
Sharky`s Sports
Boston Celtics series -178
Yes, the Celtics are a very old ball club. However, their age factor has been relatively non-existent throughout the course of the season, as they have proven time and time again that they could pick up crucial wins on back-to-back nights. Therefore, I don't see fatigue being a factor in this one at all. Furthermore, the Celtics are simply a team peaking at the perfect time. Due in part to a combination of ***** key decisions to move Garnett to center and Avery Bradley into the starting line-up (and put in Allen off the bench), the Celtics are finally clicking as they posted a 12-4 record down the stretch with impressive wins against the Heat (twice), Pacers, Magic, and Hawks. In addition to the Celtics' recent fluidity on offense resulting from these line-up changes, I don't think enough can be said about Rondo's stellar performance since the all-star break. Not only is Rondo leading the league in assists at 11.6 a game, but he is in the midst of an insane 24 game streak with 10 or more assists, closing in on Stockton's record of 29 straight games. What this shows is that Boston's offense is as fluid and efficient as ever. With Boston's lock-down defense (which was just as good this season as prior seasons as they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency) combined with their surging offense, this team is prime to make a deep run this year. I don't think the Hawks have enough weapons to counter. One main thing to consider is that the Hawks will be without Horford this series, and without him this team is completely different. Without his 12 ppg's and 7 rpg's, this team becomes a lot more guard oriented, which fits right into the hands of the Celtics defense. If there is one place to beat the Celtics, it is by exploiting them down low, however the Hawks aren't equipped to do so without Horford, and I don't see their guard play (although very good) being enough to elevate them over a 7 game series against the Celtics' surging offense and lock-down defense.
Memphis Grizzlies series -198
At first glance, the Clippers seem like a solid +EV pick here, especially at +200. However, the more I thought about this series, the more I liked the Grizzlies here. First off, the Grizzlies have a solid experience factor working in their favor coming off their historic run to the conference semi-finals last year as an 8 seed with the same core line-up of Randolph, Gasol, Gay, and Conley. The Clippers, on the other hand, are sort of an upstart team. Although they have some veteran pieces, mainly Chris Paul at the point, this Clippers team has shown many times throughout the regular season that they come up short in big situations. Although Chris Paul is one of the best fourth quarter players in the entire league (hitting 32-34 from the FT line in 4th quarters this season) and we all know how crucial 4th quarter play is during the playoffs, the Grizzlies are known for their incredible on-the-ball pressure defense, as they lead the NBA in steals (9.6 per game) and forced turnovers (17.2 per game). This type of pressure will cause havoc for Paul and prevent him from easy dribble penetration, which really opens up the court for their shooters and for Blake to explode to the basket. Offensively, I think Rudy Gay will be the difference maker for Memphis and I think his length and athleticism will create tremendous problems for Clipper guards and various mismatches as a result. Zach Randolph is a phenomenal defender, and he makes up for his lack of height with tremendous fundamentals and physicality down low. Blake should be in for a very highly contested match-up down low, and I think his productivity will decline in this series. Overall, I think the more well-rounded and experienced team will prevail over the course of this series, and I give the edge to Memphis.
MATT RIVERS
Sunday comp play winner on the Denver Nuggets plus the points at the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Nuggets are a live dog today, as they come into the Staples Center having won and covered four in a row, and six of their last seven games overall.
Denver will keep things close against a Lakers team that has gone a money-burning 3-11 against the spread their last 14 home games.
Series numbers show the Nuggets with a 7-3-1 against the spread mark the last 11 times these Western Conference rivals have clashed, and the sides have actually split the last ten series meetings straight up.
Los Angeles may hold on for the outright, but I don't see them blowing out Denver in this game today.
Take the Nuggets plus the points.
3♦ NUGGETS
Sunday comp play winner on the Washington Nationals and the Los Angeles Dodgers to hold Under the posted total at Dodger Stadium.
The totals this weekend have been pretty low, and while the teams combined for seven runs last night and the Over, look for Gio Gonzalez and Chris Capuano to hang some goose eggs on the scoreboard in this one.
Gonzalez comes into this start at 2-0 with an ERA of 1.52, and he has worked his last 20 innings without allowing an earned run to score!
Chris Capuano has not been as stingy, but at 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA over his last three starts is certainly not very far behind.
Each of Gonzalez' last three starts have held Under the posted total, while two of Capuano's last three have stayed low.
Runs going to be hard to come by this afternoon at Chavez Ravine.
Nationals-Dodgers to stay Under the posted total.
3♦ UNDER
JEFF BENTON
Your Sunday freebie is the Boston Celtics to win their opening game in Atlanta this Sunday night.
Boston is on a 7-2-1 road spread run their last ten games, and while they did not secure the home court advantage in this series against the Hawks, I do not think they will need it after they steal Game One tonight on Atlanta's hardwood.
The Celtics just lost nine days ago to the Hawks in Atlanta, but Boston was resting a few bodies that night, as Rondo, Pierce, Garnett, and Allen all sat the game out!
Overall, Boston has picked up the outright win in two of the last three series meetings, and four of the last six overall. At the end of the day, I think Boston knows deep down that Atlanta cannot beat them, and I see the Celtics taking that home court advantage away from the Hawks immediately this Sunday night.
All hands on deck and well-rested for Doc Rivers aging Boston team, as the C's win this one outright.
2♦ BOSTON
DEREK MANCINI
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Brewers and Greinke over the Cards and Garcia. The public is on St. Louis in this contest, which was predictable considering the pitching match up and each team's relevant start. However, there's one big problem with that line of thinking, it's way too easy to take the Redbirds in this one.
Guys, think about it. If the Cardinals were such a "lock" this afternoon hosting the Brewers, then the oddsmakers would be asking for a major premium. But that's not the case. Instead, they installed them at a reasonable -125, which is low enough to entice most bettors to play St. Louis, and in fact, they have... Over 70% of the action coming on the home chalk.
So then, why take the Brewers today? Two words: Zach Greinke. Yes, I'm aware of his recent ugly effort at Wrigley, where he got tagged for 8 runs in 3 2/3 innings, but again, he's not being priced like a pitcher who's going to get blasted on the road. He's being priced like a pitcher who's going to perform well today against St. Louis and his numbers back that claim, having gone 5-1 with an excellent 1.93 ERA in his L6 regular season starts against the Cardinals.
Finally, you know Milwaukee is highly motivated to avoid the sweep here, and coming off two ugly losses (plus a loss to Houston), I expect they'll bring their "A" game this afternoon. Look guys, the oddsmakers aren't stupid, they didn't "accidently" price the Cardinals cheap today. The more likely scenario is they know Greinke has been great against them, and coupled with a strong team effort to avoid the sweep, the Brewers win. All things considered, take Milwaukee with Greinke over St. Louis and Garcia.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Washington Nationals to defeat the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This is a very good pitching matchup as Washington is starting Gio Gonzalez against the Dodgers’ Chris Capuano.
Capuano has had a good start of the season. He has a 3.52 ERA and is 2-0 in four starts.
But Gonzalez has been outstanding. He is currently on a 20 inning scoreless streak. His last three starts, he has not given up a run to the Padres, Astros or Reds.
His ERA is 1.52 and WHIP is 0.845.
The Dodgers, who rallied for the win on Saturday, will be hard-pressed to score against Gonzalez.
And young phenom Bryce Harper is already adding to the poor numbers the Nationals had in left field. He went 1-for-3 with an RBI in his debut. He should help the offense.
With the way Gonzalez is pitching right now, the Nats need only a couple of runs to secure the win.
Take Washington.
3♦ NATIONALS
Derek Mancini
For today's Free Play, I'm siding with the Brewers and Greinke over the Cards and Garcia. The public is on St. Louis in this contest, which was predictable considering the pitching match up and each team's relevant start. However, there's one big problem with that line of thinking, it's way too easy to take the Redbirds in this one.
Guys, think about it. If the Cardinals were such a "lock" this afternoon hosting the Brewers, then the oddsmakers would be asking for a major premium. But that's not the case. Instead, they installed them at a reasonable -125, which is low enough to entice most bettors to play St. Louis, and in fact, they have... Over 70% of the action coming on the home chalk.
So then, why take the Brewers today? Two words: Zach Greinke. Yes, I'm aware of his recent ugly effort at Wrigley, where he got tagged for 8 runs in 3 2/3 innings, but again, he's not being priced like a pitcher who's going to get blasted on the road. He's being priced like a pitcher who's going to perform well today against St. Louis and his numbers back that claim, having gone 5-1 with an excellent 1.93 ERA in his L6 regular season starts against the Cardinals.
Finally, you know Milwaukee is highly motivated to avoid the sweep here, and coming off two ugly losses (plus a loss to Houston), I expect they'll bring their "A" game this afternoon. Look guys, the oddsmakers aren't stupid, they didn't "accidently" price the Cardinals cheap today. The more likely scenario is they know Greinke has been great against them, and coupled with a strong team effort to avoid the sweep, the Brewers win. All things considered, take Milwaukee with Greinke over St. Louis and Garcia.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Scott Delaney
For my free winner today, I am right back on those Chicago White Sox against the Boston Red Sox, after the Beantown boys scored a 1-0 win over the South Siders yesterday.
Don't worry about listing either pitcher, as I think the due theory is in effect with this one, and we'll see the Red Sox's five-game win streak come to an end, while the White Sox will put an end to their five-game skid.
I told you yesterday the hitting couldn't keep up and there had to be a stopper somewhere along the way. Yesterday's 1-0 final was the indicator. The Red Sox simply stopped hitting the ball like they had been. Now Chicago's turn to get the offense going.
Chicago's losing streak is at five games after losing the last two versus Boston, but I think the South Siders have the advantage in today's pitching matchup - yes, even with Gavin Floyd taking on Josh Beckett. I still won't be swayed to insist on listing pitchers, because I'm not limiting myself to whose on the hill. No matter what, I still think the White Sox are rolling in this game.
Floyd has the better ERA, he's on his home mound and his team certainly is due to put some runs on the board.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
San Antonio/ Utah Under 207: (Added) I know playing an Under and on a DD favorite isn't the best course of action, but I really feel this will be a one-sided game with less than 200 points being scored. The Spurs can and have scored a ton of points lately, but this is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home, where they have allowed just 93.8 PPG. Utah has allowed 99 ppg on the year (102.2 on the road), but in their last 9 games (regulation only) they have played pretty good defense, allowing just 93 ppg over that stretch. The Jazz offensive numbers look pretty good in their last 7 games overall, but two of those games went to OT and that leaves them scoring just 97.1 ppg, in regulation, over that stretch. The Spurs have played some high scoring games of late, but they have been the ones doing all the scoring. Spurs home games have averaged 199.5 ppg and they have outscored their opponents by 11.9 ppg in those games, so this game can stay under the total and the DD fav can cover as well. 107-92 looks about right here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
SAN ANTONIO -10.5 over Utah: Gonna look to the Spurs in this one. They are playing like the best team in the league right now and and they are 28-5 at home and have outscored their opponents by 11.9 ppg on their home floor, including an average of 19.8 ppg in their last 5 at home. The Spurs have averaged 105.7 ppg at home this year on 49% shooting, while Utah has not played good defense on the road, allowing 102.2 ppg on 46.7% shooting. Utah has been one of the better offensive teams in the league this year, but they will have a tough time keeping that up vs a Spurs team that has allowed just 93.8 ppg on their home floor. San Antomnio is clearly the better team here and they will wear down this depth-deprived Jazz team in the 2nd half and walk away with an EASY series opening win here.
Denver +4.5 over LAKERS: The Lakers are 26-7 SU at home this year, but they have gone just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 at then Staples Center. The Nuggets closed out the regular season winning eight of their final 10 games including each of the past four by an average margin of 18.0 PPG. Their high scoring offense should present some problems for the Lakers here and wear them down in the second half. Denver is 7-3-1 the last 11 in the series and with the way they closed out the year I feel that are primed to pull the upset here. I expect the nuggets to win game 1 outright here.
1 UNIT PLAY
Boston +1.5 over ATLANTA: The Celts have had a chance to rest some of their starters down the stretch, so this tea, should be a bit fresh and the fact that the playoff games will be spread out a bit should help them stay fresh through the series. I don't feel the Hawks matchup well with the Celts here, especially in the low post where they just don't have the size to compete with the bigger Celtics. Atlanta has been good on offense down the stretch, averaging 108 ppg in their last 5 games, but it will not be that easy vs the rested Celtics, who have allowed just 89.3 ppg on the year and 90.6 ppg in their last 5. Atlanta's defense has been solid this year, but in their last 4 games (all at home) they have allowed 99 ppg. Atlanta will miss Horford in this series and their defense just isn't the standard of Bostons. The Celtics have been on a tear in the 2nd half of the year and will start this series with a small upset win.
OC Dooley
Clippers at Grizzlies Over 184
Memphis has been cast as a prohibitive favorite this evening and it is easy to see why as they are currently riding an 11-game winning streak in front of their fans where they have gone 26-7 overall at home this campaign. When inside the Fed Ex Forum Memphis actually leads the entire NBA in average steals per game generated (9 and a half) while the average blocked shots per contest (5.23) are also high. While the Grizzlies would like to slow tonight’s tempo, that is not the case for the visiting Clippers whose offense is anchored by Chris Paul who is dishing out on average 9.1 assists per contest. Of course it was Paul who literally forced a trade from New Orleans as he wanted a better overall supporting cast in the postseason so the hopeful MVP candidate has the situation he has been seeking. According to my research the mere location of this contest is critical as the Clippers for the entire season are 11-3 OVER/ROAD when shaking off a prior spread defeat. In the past two years the “other” team in Los Angeles is a whopping 13-4 OVER/ROAD when failing to cover the spread in consecutive contests. The Clippers current head coach is the same Vinnie Del Negro who used to run the show in Chicago. When facing quality opposition who have a 60-to-70 win percentage, teams coached by Del Negro have gone 34-18 OVER the spot
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks -1.5
The Atlanta Hawks are not getting the respect they deserve today against the Boston Celtics. This team had a great season, yet they aren't getting treated like one of the better teams in the East. The clear value in this game is with the small home favorite in Game 1.
Boston is 1-8 ATS in road games revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season. Atlanta is 17-5 ATS in home games in the first round of the playoffs since 1996. Bet the Hawks Sunday.