Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 3,2011

Marc Lawrence

Washington Wizards at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

The Wizards will look to make it two wins in a row when they invade Charlotte to meet the Hornets Sunday afternoon knowing Washington is an eye-opening 1-17 SU and ATS in games off a victory this season. With the Bobcats 16-8-1 ATS the last 25 games in this series, including 4-1 ATS the last five at home, look for the Wizards winning act to end at one-in-a-row once again here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

Jeff Hochman

San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers looked awful in Saturday's 10-0 loss to arch rival SF. Look for a much better effort on ESPN tonight. Hiroki Kuroda is better than most people even realize. He can throw 95 MPH when he has too but likes to stay around 91-93 MPH. He has four high quality pitches and does a great job of changing speeds and location. There is no doubt Kuroda has made the conversion from Japanese star to a solid MLB starter. Kuroda has a lower career ERA than Hideo Nomo and Daisuke Matsuzaka. The Dodgers are hitting near .300 vs. left-handed starters at home over the last three seasons. How healthy (car accident) Barry Zito is has to be in question. Hiroki Kuroda has a career ERA of 2.99 in all West Coast starts. Take the Blue Crew in this one!

Rob Vinciletti

New York Mets vs. Florida Marlins
Play: Florida Marlins

The Marlins have newly acquired J. Vazquez on the mound here today. While he was mediocre in the American League he always been much better in his National league starts. One team he been superb against is the New York Mets. In his last 3 starts vs the Mets he has allowed just 2 runs in 20 innings with no home runs. Today he opposes Knuckle baller RA. Dickey. In his outings last year Dickey was a pleasant surprise. However he was inept vs the Marlins in 4 starts he had a 7.36 era, His last 2 starts vs Florida were of particular concern as he allowed 10 earned runs in just 12 innings. The Mets have been sub par as a road dog from +125 to +150 the last 3 years losing 26 of 37 times. The Marlins are 28-16 and +6 units as a home favorite from -125 to -150. Look for the Marlins to take the Finale here today.

JIM FEIST

INDIANA PACERS / NEW ORLEANS HORNETS
TAKE: INDIANA PACERS

The Pacers look for a fourth consecutive win as they visit the Hornets on Sunday. Indiana is holding onto 8th place in the standing, two games ahead of Charlotte for that final playoff spot. New Orleans has really dropped off, going 12-17 SU since Jan 26. After being as high as third in the west, the Hornets are now holding on for dear life as they sit in eighth place, three games ahead of ninth-place Houston with six to play. The Hornets have also seen defense slip of late, as they have allowed 96.4 ppg over a 5-7 stretch at home. The Pacers also do well with one day rest, going 35-16-3 the last 54 tries. The road team is 5-2 ATS the last seven in this series and the dog is 8-2 ATS the last 10. Two teams going in opposite directions and while the Hornets will likely make the playoffs, no one wants to enter the post season losing. I'll take the points here with Indiana in what could be a straight up win.

James Patrick Sports

Cavaliers vs. Knicks

The Carmelo Anthony fiasco hasn't paid off for New York as evidenced by their (1-7) ATS in their last (8) games overall. The Cleveland Cavaliers are (4-0) ATS in the last 4 meetings with the "Big Apple Boys" and they get Big Game James Patrick's call as Sunday's NBA complimentary selection. Take Cleveland Cavaliers in NBA action.

MTi Sports

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

The Mariners are 0-17 (-4.2 rpg) since 2009 as a road dog of more than 110 when facing a team that has lost at least two straight. The Mariners are 0-13 (-3.2 rpg) since May 2009 as a dog when they are off a non-shutout win that was tied after the sixth inning. The Athletics are 11-0 (+6.4 rpg) since June 22, 2009 as a favorite after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks. Consider the As.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Indians

Time to break out the brooms in Cleveland as the division rival White Sox aim for a three-game sweep of the Tribe. Indians' pitching has yielded 23 runs in the two games so far and the team is 4-21 after allowing seven or more runs in back to back games. Chicago has now won six straight at Progressive Field.

Play on: Chicago

Ben Burns

Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
PICK: Tampa Bay

The Rays have dropped the first two games of this series and are in danger of being swept. They're 67-24 (+28.1) the last 91 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -150 to -175 range though and I expect them to bounce back with a victory.

Manager Joe Maddon noted: "They’ve just outpitched us. It's gone their way both nights, but at some point it's going to go our way." That should be this afternoon.

Zach Britton has enjoyed some success in the minors and is coming off a strong spring. This is a tough place to make his first start though. Not only will he be facing a highly motivated and potent lineup, looking to break out, but he's unlikely to get too much run support.

Davis has a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in five starts vs. the Orioles. He was also 7-1 with a 3.22 ERA in his final 13 starts last season.

Consider "laying the wood" with Tampa.

Tom Stryker

Orlando @ Toronto
PICK: Orlando

Orlando has played well in this series against Toronto posting a solid 11-5 SU and 10-6 ATS record in the last 16 meetings. With the Raptors exhausted off last night's hard fought game at Chicago, this is the perfect spot for the Magic to dominate the home team.

Knocking off the Dinosaurs shouldn't be a problem for Superman and Company. Since mid-December, the Raptors have posted a weak 12-44 SU and 20-34-2 ATS record including a woeful 6-26 SU and 10-22 ATS in this set playing with same season revenge. Also, in the second of a back-to-back, Toronto is a dismal 15-35 SU and 19-30-1 ATS including a miserable 7-25 SU and 10-21-1 ATS in this situation battling a rested opponent.

With a 2-12 ATS record in its last 14 games, Orlando hasn't enjoyed much pointspread success. Thankfully, the Magic have produced a stunning 50-7 SU and 37-18-2 ATS record against opponents that own a won/loss percentage less than .300 including a phenomenal 31-10 ATS in this set provided the Magic are not off a blowout win of 15 points or more.

Dwight Howard is having a monster season for the Big O and he'll have a huge game against a Raptors bunch that will be out of gas. Take Orlando.

SPORTS WAGERS

PORTLAND –4 over Dallas

The Mav’s own one of the best records in the league and that’s because they always beat the teams they’re supposed to beat. Rarely does Dallas lose to teams like the Clippers, Kings, Nets, T-Wolves, etc. They even beat a lot of .500 or slightly better teams. However, when they play the elite teams in this league, they’re a different club and it’s not for the better. Against the Lakers in L.A. on Thursday night in a game they wanted badly they were embarrassed in a 28-point loss. The Mav’s have won 15 of their last 23 games but let’s have a close look at whom they’ve beaten. Aside from beating the Warriors twice, Dallas has also beaten Houston, Sacramento (twice), Minnesota (twice), Toronto, Indiana, Washington, Philly, the Knicks, Phoenix, Utah and the Clip Joint. Among those teams, Phoenix, Utah and the Knicks are all in free-fall mode while the rest are all garbage with the exception of Philly and Houston. Over that same stretch the Mav’s played but could not beat San Antonio, the Lakers (twice), Memphis, Denver, New Orleans, Portland and Golden State last night. The Mav’s are a club that’s built to beat bad teams. They rank 27th in the league in points in the paint and they rank 29th in the Association in second chance opportunities. They rarely get an offensive board and must hit a high percentage from the perimeter to even have a chance. They do against bad teams. It’s also worth noting that the Mav’s will play their fourth game in five nights against one of the most determined and tough-minded squads in the league. Play: Portland –4 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Baltimore +136 over TAMPA BAY

Last season the Orioles stumbled badly out of the gate to a 2-16 start and never really recovered until Buck Showalter - their third manager of the campaign - took the reins. The O's were 34-23 under Showalter and it’s carried over to this year where the O’s have won their first two games. Armed with potential superstars like Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters, Baltimore added a bevy of veterans like Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Vladimir Guerrero this offseason, giving them the makings of a pretty solid lineup from top to bottom. Lefty Zach Britton will make his major-league debut and he’s a highly touted youngster that has the minor-league credentials to make an immediate impact. Britton has a good low-90s sinking fastball and a quality slider. He gets tons of groundball outs and it’s been reported that he might be the best groundball pitcher in the minors. Britton went 3–0 in the spring with a 1.35 ERA and he’ll face a Rays squad that has scored two runs in the first two games of the year. Not only did the Rays lose Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena and Jason Bartlett but they also lost Evan Longoria to an injury yesterday. Wade Davis had some decent second half numbers last season but there are some concerns. He has a high fly-ball profile and he also had an alarmingly high LOB% of 78%. That’s a huge number that should not be ignored. The O’s can’t wait to get back on the field today while the Rays are pressing at the plate and it sure diesn't help that they've never seen Britton. Play: Baltimore +136 (Risking 2 units).

AHAHEIM -½ +102 over Dallas (REG)

It really doesn’t get much better than this. It’s been a long season for every team and you can triple that for these Western clubs that have been in a playoff-like battle for position for weeks upon weeks. The Ducks have a shot to clinch a playoff spot here and you can expect this extremely dangerous host to leave nothing on the table. Anaheim and its fans will be completely jacked up to clinch and frankly, they couldn’t have handpicked a riper intruder. Incidentally, Anaheim is very warm with seven wins in its last nine games and over that stretch they scored four goals or more in five of those games. Meanwhile, the Stars have thrown in the proverbial towel. Dallas’ last grasp of air occurred yesterday when they absolutely had to have a win against the Kings and it didn’t happen. The Stars lost their sixth straight game and their eighth game in their last nine to drive the final nail in their coffin. After a long season and with virtually no shot of making the playoffs one really has to question what is going to motivate them here. The Stars are a mentally dejected team playing their fifth straight on the road against a team that can clinch and we just can’t envision for a second this one turning out any other way. Play: Anaheim -½ +102 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -½ -104 over Tampa Bay (REG) Pinnacle

The Blackhawks can’t clinch a playoff spot with a win - not mathematically - but they’re certainly aware that a win here and they’re 99.9% guaranteed their spot in the postseason and everything sets up perfectly for them to do just that. The Lightning will play their third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs after a win in Minnesota yesterday. They’ll also turn to their seldom-used back-up goaltender Mike Smith here. Smith has played twice in the past month. The Blackhawks are rested, they’ve won six of seven at the United Center overall and have won seven of their last eight home games against the Bolts. A packed house with a chance to all but clinch assures a strong effort from the home side and a very likely win to go along with it. Play: Chicago -½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

JR O'Donnell

KC Royals - 107

Behind Chen as the Boys from KC Mizzou get after the La Angels and there super Shaky bull pen. Royals had a nice spring and they are a confident bunch. The Royals hurler Bruce Chen hung up 12 wins last season & Chen, who didn't join the rotation until the end of May, was the first Royals left-hander to win 12 games in a season since Leibrandt 13 wins and Floyd Bannister 12 wins. B Chen is 1-1 with a 2.75 era in 5 appearances vs the Angels. Angels run out a retread in S Kazmir who has 4.50 Era vs the Kc Royals. Kazmir had a career worst season last year 2010 as he went 9 and 15 with 5.94 Era. Just could not find the plate .The Oster has a bulls eye on the Royals as they hang up much needed W at home.

EZWINNERS

Denver Nuggets +7

The Lakers have been playing like the defending NBA champions since the All-Star break, but I expect the Nuggets to give the Lakers a run for their money in this game. Everyone expected the Nuggets to fall flat on their faces after trading away Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks, but just the opposite has happened. Since overhauling their roster, the Nuggets (46-29 and 14-4 since the Carmelo trade) have been the best team in the NBA. Their offense, which is more fluid and faster than ever, is scoring at a league-best rate of 109.5 points per 100 possessions. On the defensive side of the ball the Nuggets defense is frenetic, creating turnovers and challenging almost every shot. The results on that end have been just as spectacular: 97.2 points allowed per 100 possessions, a ridiculously high rate of forced turnovers, and some of the best shooting defense in the league. Look for them to battle the Lakers all the way. Take the points.

Matt Rivers

Cleveland Cavaliers +11.5

Reasoning: Sure Cleveland stinks and talent wise can’t hold a candle to Amare, Carmelo and the Knicks but somehow Byron Scott’s squad is 3-0 this season against the boys from New York and to get a dozen or so tonight seems like a bit much.

I am not going to act as if the Cavaliers are going to sweep the season series because they’re not. The Knicks are going to win this game and fatten themselves up a bit as this soft schedule comes to bare but Mike D’Antoni’s team still is not playing well defensively and therefore can’t be laying such a hefty price.
The Knicks looked flat out lousy in having to come back to defeat the Nets the other night allowing Brook Lopez and Kris Humphries to control a lot of the paint and are just not very good right now.

Since the trade with Denver things have gone fairly rough. Yes the New Yorkers looked really good in the comeback win down in South Beach about a month ago, and I do expect some wins coming up, but there have been a lot of losses since and therefore to get a number like this is certainly worth it. JJ Hickson has been playing at a high level and guys like Baron Davis, Ramon Sessions and Boobie Gibson are capable and worthy of a play tonight.

15-60 is beyond dreadful but three of those victories came against the Knicks and maybe, just maybe, there’s something to that. Even if not a dozen is a ton to get and always-backdoor territory.

Vegas Matty

Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Lakers
Pick: Denver Nuggets +7

The two-time defending NBA champion Los Angeles Lakers have been nearly unstoppable since the All-Star break with an unreal 17-1 record straight-up. But the Lakers have been much more mortal against the spread during that stretch with a 12-6 mark, including 3-4 in their past seven games. These Denver Nuggets will also be playing LA for the first time since getting rid of Carmelo Anthony, their former star who took his talents to the Big Apple in a blockbuster trade right before the Lakers went on their run. The Nuggets enjoyed past success against Los Angeles with Anthony, going 1-4-1 ATS in the last six meetings. They have been a better team without him though with a 14-4 record and incredible 15-2-1 ATS mark. The Lakers expended a lot of energy on Friday during their comeback from a 17-point deficit in the second quarter at Utah in an eventual 96-85 victory, and they are just 24-23 ATS when playing on one day of rest this season. That trend alone makes this game a toss-up, and the others also point in Denver’s direction. Since this is a nationally televised game, the line is a bit inflated with more people betting LA. Take the Nuggets to keep it close and stay within the seven points.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -140

The San Francisco Giants looked like the defending World Series champions on Saturday in a 10-0 rout of the Los Angeles Dodgers, but do not forget what happened in the first two games of this series. The Dodgers outdueled the Giants on the mound, which is exactly what should happen on Sunday Night Baseball. In the latest meeting, LA’s Ted Lilly got knocked out after giving up four runs in 4.2 innings, but Hiroki Kuroda should be able to right the ship and give the home team a series victory against their division rivals. Kuroda had a 3.39 ERA last season, and that number was up just slightly vs. the Giants at 3.56. He also owns San Francisco’s Freddy Sanchez, who has only two hits in 12 career at-bats against him. Barry Zito takes the mound for the Giants after getting into an auto accident in West Hollywood on Wednesday. Zito was deemed fit to pitch after a throwing session on Friday, but that does not mean he was able to go back in time to find his Cy Young form. He was so bad at the end of last season (1-10 with a 5.19 ERA in his last 15 appearances) that he was left off San Francisco’s postseason roster during the team’s World Series run. Zito went 0-3 against the Dodgers last year, getting just five runs of support. LA slugger Matt Kemp has more hits against Zito (18) than any other pitcher, so look for him to shine and allow the Dodgers faithful to go home happy.