SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Cleveland (60-16, 36-39-1 ATS) at Boston (47-28, 30-43-2 ATS)
The Cavaliers look to clinch the NBA’s best regular-season record and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs when they visit TD Garden for a showdown with the slumping Celtics.
LeBron James tallied 27 points, including 14 in a row in a fourth-quarter surge that led Cleveland to a 93-88 victory over Atlanta on Friday. It was a milestone victory for the Cavaliers, who became just the ninth team in league history to record consecutive 60-win seasons. They’ve now won three in a row overall, 11 of 12 and 17 of their last 19, and need one more win or one Lakers loss to sew up home-court advantage.
The only negative for Cleveland, which suffered a backdoor beat as a 5½-point chalk against the Hawks on Friday, is it has failed to cover in four straight games and is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 (all as a favorite). The Cavaliers have won seven of their last nine on the highway (5-4 ATS), and for the season they’re 26-12 as a visitor (21-16-1 ATS).
The Celtics have now suffered three straight losses and four consecutive ATS setbacks during a six-game homestand that ends tonight. The most recent debacle came Friday, when Boston fell 119-114 to the Rockets as a hefty 11-point favorite. The three-game home losing skid comes after a five-game home winning streak and it drops the Celtics to 23-15 SU and a woeful 11-26-1 ATS at TD Garden this year.
These teams opened the season against each other in Cleveland on Oct. 27, and Boston scored a 95-89 upset victory as a five-point road underdog. However, the Cavaliers have since twice exacted revenge in dominating fashion, rolling 108-88 in Boston as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 25 and 104-93 as a seven-point home favorite on March 14.
Although the road team has won two of the three meetings this season, the host is still on a 10-2 SU roll in this rivalry. Also, Cleveland is now 20-7-2 ATS in the last 29 series clashes, going 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Beantown.
In addition to failing to cash in four straight games, the Cavaliers are in pointspread ruts of 1-4 against the Eastern Conference, 1-4 when playing after a day off, 2-5 after a SU win and 1-5 against winning teams. On the positive end, they’re 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Sunday outings and 5-1 ATS in their last six against Atlantic Division foes.
Boston is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference contests and 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against the Central Division. From there, though, the pointspread trends head south, including 0-4 overall, 19-42-1 at home, 5-11-1 after a SU defeat, 6-14-2 after a non-cover, 0-5-1 on Sunday and 3-12-1 when playing at home against an opponent with a winning road record.
Cleveland has topped the total in eight of nine against Atlantic Division squads, but otherwise it is on “under” runs of 6-2 overall, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 after a day off and 37-12-2 on Sunday. The Celtics have stayed low in 13 of 19 on Sunday, but they’re also on “over” streaks of 5-1 against the Central Division, 29-11 after a SU loss and 5-1 after a non-cover.
Finally, these teams have topped the total in four of their last five meetings overall (including all three this season) and four of their last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and OVER
San Antonio (46-29, 40-34-1 ATS) at L.A. Lakers (55-21, 32-41-3 ATS)
The Lakers try to put the finishing touches on another Pacific Division title and move a step closer to locking up the best record in the Western Conference when they welcome the Spurs to the Staples Center.
Manu Ginobili went off for a season-high 43 points and helped the Spurs shoot a blistering 51.8 percent from the field as San Antonio blasted the Magic 112-100 on Friday, cashing as a three-point home favorite. Despite the presence of Orlando big man Dwight Howard, the Spurs dominated the key, outscoring the Magic 62-38 in the paint, with center Tim Duncan contributing 23 points on 10-for-12 shooting. Since suffering a nine-point home loss to the Lakers on March 24, San Antonio has won and covered four of its last five, the only blemish being a stunning six-point loss at New Jersey.
Los Angeles put the brakes on a two-game SU and ATS slide with a 106-92 rout of Utah as a 4½-point favorite Friday. Hours after signing a three-year contract extension, Kobe Bryant went out and struggled with his shooting, missing on 18 of 23 field-goal attempts, but he still finished with 25 points. Lamar Odom was the difference, though, notching a game-high 26 points and pulling down 10 rebounds. Pau Gasol (14 points, 16 rebounds) also registered a double-double for the Lakers, who are 9-3 in their last 12 (5-7 ATS) and now need just one more win or Phoenix loss to wrap up the division crown.
The Spurs blew out the Lakers 105-85 as a 3½-point home favorite in the season’s first meeting on Jan. 12, but Los Angeles has dominated in the last two clashes, preceding the nine-point rout at San Antonio 10 days ago with a 101-89 home victory as a 2½-point chalk on Feb. 8, winning that one with Bryant on the sidelines injured. The Lakers are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in the last eight series meetings, including four straight wins and covers in Hollywood.
San Antonio has won six of its last 10 on the highway (7-3 ATS), but is still just a .500 road team at 18-18 (17-19 ATS). Meanwhile, the Lakers have won seven straight home games, going just 2-4-1 ATS. For the season, they’re 33-5 at Staples Center, but 16-20-1 ATS.
The Spurs have failed to cover in six of their last seven Sunday contests, but otherwise they’re on ATS upticks of 4-1 overall, 7-3 on the highway, 4-0 against winning teams, 9-4 after either a SU win or ATS win, 8-1 against the Western Conference and 9-1 when scoring 100 points in their previous game.
The Lakers are just 7-14-1 ATS since the All-Star break, and during this span they haven’t once cashed in consecutive games, going 0-7 ATS in their last seven after a spread-cover. They’re also in ATS slumps of 2-6-1 at home, 1-5 after a day off and 1-4 after a SU win, but they’re 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 Sunday contests.
San Antonio is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 on the road, 9-2 against winning teams, 10-4-1 on Sunday and 12-5 after a spread-cover. Likewise, L.A. is on a slew of “under” streaks, including 17-8 overall, 8-2 at home, 12-5 against the Western Conference, 7-3 versus Southwest Division foes, 20-7-1 after a double-digit win and 21-4-2 on Sunday.
Additionally, the under has cashed in 20 of the last 28 meetings between these teams – including all three this year – and five straight clashes at Staples Center have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees at Boston
The Yankees begin defense of their 26th world championship when they christen the 2010 season against the rival Red Sox at Fenway Park. This season opener will feature a battle of aces, as C.C. Sabathia (18-8, 3.37 ERA in 2009) toes the slab for New York against Josh Beckett (17-6, 3.86).
One year after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, New York posted baseball’s best regular-season record at 103-59, finishing eight games clear of Boston in the A.L. East. Then the Yankees rolled to their record 26th World Series title, sweeping the Twins in the first round, knocking off the Angels in six games in the American League Championship Series and polishing off the Phillies in six games in the Fall Classic.
Boston went 95-67 last year – tying the Dodgers for the third-best record in the league – and that was good enough to nab the A.L. wild-card berth last year. However, the Red Sox were swept by the Angels in the ALDS. Boston dominated as usual at Fenway Park, going 56-25 in the regular season. Only the Yankees (57-24) had a better home record.
New York enters the season on positive runs of 52-21 overall, 48-18 against right-handed starters, 40-15 versus A.L. East rivals and 47-21 on Sunday, but it is 1-4 in its last five as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Sox are on positive stretches of 55-24 at home, 37-17 as a favorite and 6-2 on Sunday, but they dropped nine of 13 overall to end last year, five of seven against lefty starters and six straight against A.L. East foes.
The Red Sox beat the Yankees eight straight times to start last year, but New York came back to win nine of the last 10 meetings to get a split of the season series. The home team won 14 of the 18 clashes, and New York is still just 2-8 in its last 10 games at Fenway.
Sabathia was sensational in his debut season in New York, particularly after Aug. 1, when he went 12-2 with a 2.09 ERA in 17 starts (playoffs included), allowing three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 outings. The Yankees went 15-2 in those final 17 Sabathia starts, including 8-1 on the road. The only road loss came in a meaningless October contest at Tampa Bay, and if you take away that outing, Sabathia – who finished fourth in A.L. Cy Young voting – went 11-1 with a 1.51 ERA in his final 15 outings.
Sabathia was 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 19 regular-season road starts last year (compared with 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA at Yankee Stadium). He faced the Red Sox four times, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA (1-1 with a 4.61 ERA at Fenway). For his career, the hefty lefty is 5-5 with a 3.29 ERA in 11 starts against Boston, going 2-2 with a 3.19 ERA in five outings at Fenway.
Beckett’s final 2009 start wasn’t pretty, as he gave up four runs (all earned) on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 4-1 playoff loss at the Angels. Still, the veteran right-hander had a strong season, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 22 of his 32 starts, and he led his team in wins and innings pitched (212 1/3). With Beckett on the hill, Boston is on runs of 19-9 overall, 13-3 at home (all as a favorite), 12-4 against the A.L. East, but it has lost six of his last eight Sunday starts.
Beckett was outstanding at home in 2009, going 10-1 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 starts, with Boston winning 13 of those 16 games, including two of three against New York. Beckett is 9-5 with a 5.33 ERA in 17 career regular-season starts against the Yankees, including 2-1 with a 5.34 ERA in five outings last season.
New York ended last season on “over” runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 3-0-1 as an underdog (all on the road), 14-2 when Sabathia pitches on the road and 6-0 when Sabathia pitches on Sunday. Also, the Red Sox carry “over” trends of 6-2 at home, 32-13 as a favorite, 16-5 in series openers, 6-2 versus the A.L. East, 8-3 when Beckett pitches overall and 6-1 when Beckett pitches at Fenway.
Finally, four of the final five Red Sox-Yankees meetings last year topped the total, and the over went 3-1-1 in the last five battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Marc Lawrence
Memphis Grizzlies at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Orlando Magic
The Magic returns home off a double-digit loss with revenge on their minds from a 5-point loss suffered as two-point favorites at Memphis earlier this year. With the Grizzlies in off a double-digit win, look for Orlando to improve to 9-3-1 ATS at home this season in games off a SU and ATS loss here today.
Tom Freese
Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
Minnesota is last in the Western Conference with a 15-61 record. Former Celtic Al Jefferson scores 17.4 points and 9 rebounds a game. Point guard Jonny Flynn scores 13.5 points a game. Forward Corey Brewer scores 12.9 points a game. The Timberwolves score 98.1 points and they allow 107.4 points a game. Minnesota is 3-7 ATS when playing with no rest and they are 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games overall. Okalhoma City is currently the sixth seed in the Western Conference. The Thunder are led by Kevin Durant and his 29.6 points a game. Point guard Russell Westbrook scores 16.2 points and 8 rebounds a game. Small forward Jeff Green scores 15 points a game. The Thunder score 100.7 points a game 96.9 points a game. Oklahoma City is 5-1 ATS their last 6 games overall and they 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 games at home vs. the Timberwolves. PLAY ON OKLAHOMA CITY -
VEGAS EXPERTS
New Jersey Nets at Washington Wizards
Break up the Nets! Coming off a stunning 28-point win over the New Orleans Hornets last night, New Jersey has now won four of their last six games. And while that’s not saying a whole lot for some teams, this is front page news in New Jersey! We’ll back the Nets again tonight against a bad Washington team that has lost 17 of their last 18 games and have absolutely nothing to play for. New Jersey is obviously playing for pride, and is finally starting to put things together. It doesn’t happen often, but the Nets have a winnable game and they’ll take advantage!
Play on: New Jersey Nets
BIG AL
New York Knicks @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: New York Knicks
Although both of these teams are having disappointing seasons, the Clippers have played much worse than the New York Knicks of late. The Clips have dropped 14 of their last 16 games, and have covered the spread in just four of those games! New York, on the other hand, is 10-10 ATS with two pushes over its last 22 games, so it has at least been fairly competitive. The Knicks did lose by 11 at Golden State their last time out, but in that game, forward David Lee had his first career triple-double, with 37 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists! In so doing, he became the first NBA play with at least 30 points, 20 boards and 10 assists since the great Kareem Abdul-Jabbar accomplished the feat 34 years ago! And Lee has played very well vs. the Clippers in the last three meetings, with 20 ppg, and 12 rpg. Look for New York to salvage the final game of its five game road trip with a blowout of the Clippers. Take New York.
JIM FEIST
NEW JERSEY NETS / WASHINGTON WIZARDS
TAKE UNDER
It's pretty difficult to find a worst matchup in the NBA than this one between the Nets and Wizards. Even if you combined their wins they would still be a horrible team. The Nets at least got the monkey off their backs by winning game number 10 last week against the Spurs, 90-84. The win assured the 72-73 Sixers are still the all-time worst team in NBA history with just nine wins. Picking a winner in today's contest is about the same odds as flipping a coin. However, the total, that's another case. The Washington Wizards haven't scored 100 points or more since February. Since then, it's been 19 straight under the century mark. And, it comes as no surprise that the Nets are last in scoring offense (91.5 ppg) and the Wizards are 26th (95.7). Two horrible teams, both looking to just play out the season and neither really caring about today's contest. I look for this one to be about as exciting as watching grass grow. However, just like grass, the money is just as green when you win with terrible games. The Under is the play here and that's what I am going with on Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
NY Yankees +1.08 over BOSTON
You’re not going to see the Yankees being bet much in this section because they’re going to be a big favorite on most nights and rarely a pooch in others. So, when the Yanks are a dog they have to be considered great value because once again they’re the best team money can buy and this year’s squad is very likely going to be better than last year’s. They added Curtis Granderson and Nick Johnson to an already potent line-up. They also have Brett Gardiner, a rookie last year that will start the year in left field or center and if he gets on base enough he could lead the league in steals. The rest of the squad needs no introduction and the bullpen could also be a strength if Phil Hughes continues where he left off. The big difference between these two is offense and that’s where the Red Sox could be in trouble. They lost Jason Bay in favor of Mike Cameron and that’s a big offensive downgrade. J.D. Drew, Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre are all anyone’s guess to how well they’ll swing the bat but I wouldn’t count on big years from any of them. Victor Martinez behind the plate could be a complete train wreck and that could factor into this game, as the speedy Yankees should be able to run on him all day. The Red Sox might have an edge on the mound today with Beckett over Sabathia, as C.C. is traditionally a slow starter but you don’t need me to tell you he’s also capable of coming up with a big start anytime. Again, the big difference here is offense and it’s not in the Red Sox favor. Play: NY Yankees +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
Los Angeles Lakers -6
The Spurs have been playing well, but they have not had much success against the Lakers recently, especially when playing at Staple Center. The Spurs are only 1-7 against the spread in the last eight meetings between these two teams and they have lost by an average of sixteen points per game in their last four trips to Los Angeles. Manu Ginobili has been carrying the team for the Spurs, but I expect him to see a heavy dose of Ron Artest in this game. The loss of Tony Parker and his ability to get to the basket is going to be huge in this game. The Lakers appeared to breakout of their funk on Friday against Utah. Over 48 mostly solid minutes of ball hawking defense, determined rebounding and crisply run offense the Lakers emerged from their prolonged slump to finally show a hint of the brilliance that brought them an NBA championship last year. I expect that kind of play to continue today as they are in the national tv spotlight. Lay the points.
Cajun Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
Selection: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers
Eastern Conference foes square off on Sunday at the TD Garden when Cleveland pays a visit to Boston. Boston has certainly not been a team to fear even at the Garden where they are only 11-26 against the spread on their home floor this season. The Celtics are currently riding a three-game losing streak and a four-game skid against the number. The Cavs have been much better straight up winning their last three but posting a 0-3-1 ATS mark their last four overall. No need to worry though the Cavs have the perfect prescription in the Celtics winning and covering the last two meetings against them with ease including one right here on this floor back in February. The Celtics have played so poorly of late a fifty-nine percent shooting night was not even good enough to grab a victory versus the Thunder last Wednesday night. They face a Cavs team that is 26-12 SU on the road and 21-16 against the number averaging 100.9 points per game while surrendering 95.8 points per game. No line has yet been posted for this contest but based on our numbers the Cavs should be favored and if that is the case we have a system that tells us to Play Against NBA home underdogs coming off a home loss during the month of April. The last five seasons playing against those underdogs has produced a record of 41-15 ATS for 73 percent winners. With home court all but secured Cavs head coach Mike Brown could possibly be thinking of resting some of his starters. That’s unlikely here because they might face the Celtics in the playoffs and he will want to make sure his message is sent loud and clear. We will back the better team overall and lay the price with the Cavs on Sunday as they roll an aging and tired Celtics squad.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Cleveland Cavaliers 100 Boston Celtics 90
James Patrick Sports
Nets vs. Wizards
Happy Easter Sunday from the staff at James Patrick Sports and in Easter Sunday action in the NBA the New Jersey Nets travel to our nation's capital to play the Washington Wizards in a battle of some of the worst the NBA has to offer. Washington has gone (18) straight games without posting (100) points while New Jersey is averaging a league worst (91.5) points per game. Big Game James Patrick's NBA selection is Nets - Wizards Under the Total.
MTi Sports
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: San Antonio Spurs
In their last game, Manu Ginobili carried the Spurs to a 112-100 victory over the Magic by scoring 43 points to go along with five assists and six rebounds. This is a good sign for the Spurs? chances. San Antonio is a perfect 18-0 ATS since the start of the 2006-07 NBA season with fewer than three days rest when they are off a win in which Ginobili scored more than 28 points and contributed at least two assists. The Lakers are 0-5 ATS (-7.4 ppg) at home and when facing a team they beat in their previous two match-ups of the season. Grab the points.
Nick Parsons
Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks
Prediction: Vancouver Canucks -1.5
Vancouver has been alternating wins and losses for a while now; an 8-3 loss against the Kings on Thursday, and then a 5-4 win at Anaheim the following night; for a number of different reasons I believe that Vancouver will break this cycle this evening, and offers excellent value on the "puck line" in this situation:
Minnesota starts a three game trip after it was officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 3-2 loss to San Jose on Friday night.
Bad spot for Minnesota here and I believe it'll have a letdown as it tries to find the motivation to finish the season; The writing was kind of on the wall, but it?s never fun playing these games when youre mathematically eliminated, forward Andrew Brunette said. ?We?ll have to find a different kind of motivation and end the year on the right note.
The Wild are just 4-12 their last 16 away from friendly confines.
On the other side of the rink: Speaking of motivation; Vancouver needs one point to get its third Northwest division crown in the last four years.
If you believe the hype, the only uncertainty about Vancouver heading into the playoffs seems to be the play of Roberto Luongo; he's gone 7-6-1 with a 3.58 GAA over his last 14 games.
I'm not reading too much into Lu's play of late; Luongo is able to "flip-a-switch" in big moments, and he finally has a team in front of him that could take him to the promised land.
In his last home game, he stopped 32 in a 4-1 win over the surprising Coyotes on Tuesday night.
Not only is Vancouver 10-2 its last 12 at GM Place, it's also 8-3 its last 11 vs. Minnesota.
Bottom line: It's also important to point out that Vancouver is 13-5 (+6.2 units) this season after allowing 4 goals or more in its previous contest; which of course means that this club brings its "A" game to its following contest after a sub-par defensive performance.
With three of four games at home to end the year, I expect the Canucks to take advantage of this opportunity and pound this deflated Wild team into submission.
Vancouver wins big; lay the 1 1/2.
John Ryan
Golden State Warriors vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Golden State Warriors +8
3* graded play on Golden State as they take on Toronto set to start 6:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that GS will lose this game by fewer than 8 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-9 ATS for 79.1% winners since 1996. Play against home favorites that are good 3PT shooting teams making >=36.5% and facing a poor 3PT defense allowing >=36.5%; average rebounding team posting a game differential of +/-3 reb/game facing a horrible rebounding team posting a game differential <=-5.5 reb/game. Everyone knows GS thinks offense first and sometimes does not even think defense. Yet, Toronto has done well in games where they have allowed 105 or more points and there is certainly a high probability that GS will score more than 105 points. Note that Toronto is just 7-29 ATS (-24.9 Units) when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. Take Golden State.
Scott Rickenbach
Detroit Red Wings @ Philadelphia Flyers
PICK: Philadelphia Flyers -130
Not only are the Red Wings in a back to back spot here, they were fortunate they even got a point in the standings in their shootout loss versus Nashville yesterday. The Red Wings scored very late to force overtime and then they went on to lose in the shootout. Unlike Detroit, Philly certainly wasn't fortunate in their last game. The Flyers lost 1-0 at home against Montreal on Friday and, in that game, goalie Brian Boucher played very well but the Flyers still lost 1-0. Philadelphia lost despite outshooting the Canadiens by a double digit margin. The Flyers are fighting for their playoff lives and, after falling just short in Friday's game, look for them to take advantage of an excellent situation Friday. Chris Osgood is expected to get his first start for the Red Wings in over two months and that puts him in a tough spot as he faces a determined and focused Flyers team that will once again be peppering the opposition with shots on goal. This time however, the Flyers advantage in shots will result in an advantage on the scoreboard as well. Consider a small play on Philadelphia on the money line on Sunday afternoon.
Matt Fargo
New York Knicks @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: New York Knicks +2.5
The Knicks have had a rough start to their roadtrip and it finishes tonight in Los Angeles with the most winnable game of the trek. The first three games came against Western Conference playoff teams and the last one came at Golden St., a team it did not matchup well with despite all of the injuries. The New York defense has been the cause of the problems and the Clippers simply do not have the offense to take advantage. Los Angeles has averaged just 94 ppg over its last seven games and despite playing a bad defensive team, I do not see much improvement. The Clippers are just 5-17 ATS this season against teams that allow 103 or more ppg while going 3-10 ATS against teams allowing 46 percent or worse from the floor. The Knick combat the poor defense with a strong offense that is averaging 101.6 ppg on 45.4 percent shooting. The Clippers problems go back a way as they are 2-14 over their last 16 games including a 1-5 record at home. They are two games above .500 at home on the season and coupled with the Knicks poor road record is what is making them the small favorite here. Prior to this roadtrip, New York went 4-2 in its previous six games including a 2-1 mark on the road so the ability to win away from home is definitely there when given the right opportunity and this is one of those. New York gave up 128 points to Golden St. on Friday and it is a solid 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 125 or more ppg in its previous game. The Knicks are also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss. The Clippers are just 7-18 in their last 25 games following a loss and the underdog has covered five of the last six meetings in this series. The lone exception was earlier this year when New York won at home by four points as a two-point chalk and while that sets up revenge, the Clippers have more important issues that they cannot seem to deal with. New York ends the roadtrip on a positive note before heading home to play Boston on Tuesday. 3* New York Knicks