Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 6

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Atlanta at Washington
The Braves look to complete the sweep of the Nationals this afternoon and come into the contest with a 4-1 record in Alex Wood's last 5 road starts. Atlanta is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105)

Game 901-902: San Diego at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Kennedy) 16.046; Miami (Eovaldi) 15.002
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over

Game 903-904: Cincinnati at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Simon) 15.042; NY Mets (Niese) 13.662
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-120); Under

Game 905-906: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.760; Pittsburgh (Volquez) 15.221
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Over

Game 907-908: Atlanta at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Wood) 16.220; Washington (Jordan) 15.236
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+105); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Burnett) 15.183; Cubs (Villanueva) 13.443
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-130); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-130); N/A

Game 911-912: Arizona at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Miley) 14.930; Colorado (Anderson) 13.892
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-125); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+105); Under

Game 913-914: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 16.524; LA Dodgers (Greinke) 14.829
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+130); Under

Game 915-916: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Nolasco) 13.831; Cleveland (Masterson) 15.271
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-185); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-185); Over

Game 917-918: Baltimore at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 15.321; Detroit (Verlander) 16.968
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-175); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-175); Under

Game 919-920: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.240; Toronto (Hutchison) 14.190
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Toronto (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+105); Over

Game 921-922: Texas at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Darvish) 17.043; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 15.562
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-110); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-110); Under

Game 923-924: LA Angels at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 14.912; Houston (Feldman) 12.586
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Over

Game 925-926: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 15.768; Kansas City (Shields) 14.621
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 6
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+115); Under

Game 927-928: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Ramirez) 15.467; Oakland (Gray) 16.921
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-155); Over

Game 929-930: Milwaukee at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 17.112; Boston (Lester) 16.221
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+145); Under

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N.Y. METS +101 over CincinnatiFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Aside from losing both games in this set and losing its third straight, Cincinnati's pitching has been tagged for 17 runs in those three games. The Reds are off to a 1-4 start and that’s after much more favorable pitching matchups than this one. Alfredo Simon hasn’t started a Major League game since 2011. He did make six starts in the spring and posted an ERA of 4.63, a WHIP of 1.37, walked 8 batters and whiffed 14 in 23.1 innings. Last season pitching in relief, Simon limped to the finish with stats buoyed by an unrepeatable second half hit rate. That was the second straight year he's managed a sub-3 ERA on barely average skills but you only have to go back to 2011 to see he doesn't possess any magical ability to out-pitch his talent. The smart money says bet on skills, not stats and Simon most definitely lacks skills.
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We would have to assume that the Mets would not be taking a chance with Jonathan Niese this early on in the season if he was not 100% ready to go. Last year, Niese was diagnosed with a partially torn rotator cuff and took six weeks off to rest/rehab. He then returned in the 2H to put together a career-best run. The injury risk is reflected in his poor health grade but Niese’s solid command, strong groundball tilt of 52% and consistent history presents potential reward too. Niese has had many months and stretches in his career in which he’s completely dominated the opposition. Last August for instance, he posted a 1.93 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Niese's ability to keep the ball on the ground has limited the long-ball and kept his ERA in check. Today, we get Niese at a discount and although he will be on a 95 pitch count, that’s plenty to take us into the sixth inning. Wrong side favored.
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Chicago +116 over KANSAS CITYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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With an ERA barely above 3.00 and 13 wins, James Shields’ first season in Kansas City was a success. On the surface he looks like he’s primed for another fine year but when we look under the hood we see plenty of reasons to expect regression. Shields’ xERA, particularly in the second half, indicates that there was some skills slippage. It looks like the big groundball gain in 2012 was an aberration, as it slipped to 42%, down from 52% the year before and that 42% GB rate is almost exactly where he’s been in that department his entire career. He also gave up a lot more line drives than usual. In his first start against Detroit, Shields’ struck out just three batters in six innings and had a groundball/fly-ball split of 30%/50%. We’re also seeing a three-year increase in WHIP from 2011-2013 that went from 1.04 to 1.17 to 1.24 last year. In summarizing, Shields’ has shown a decline in groundball rate, strikeout rate, groundball rate and WHIP and he wasn’t particularly sharp in his opener either. That makes him very unappealing spotting a tag against Chris Sale.
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If you look strictly at W-L record, Chris Sale’s 2013 was a failure, since he went from 17-8 in 2012 to 11-14 in 2013. However, a closer look at his performance shows that he actually took a step up. Sale's control just keeps getting better and when you combine that with his high strikeout rate, his command is going through the roof. As usual, he keeps the ball on the ground, always a good skill no matter where you’re pitching. His fastball velocity rose from 91.3 in 2012 to 92.6 in 2013 and reports are that it’s even a tick higher this season. Sale’s dominant start/disaster start split highlights his reliability, as he only had one true disaster start all year, way back in April. In 2012, his one flaw was a 2nd half fade but that did not happen in ‘13. Now, there's scarcely a blemish to find other than pitching for a poor team. Sale’s 77%/3% dominant start//disaster start split last year tells you all you need to know about how much he abused AL hitting. His curveball is sick. Sale is truly one of the game’s best that will likely be in the Cy Young discussion by the end of the year. Invest.
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MIAMI -1 +124 over San DiegoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres won their opener against the Dodgers last Sunday but for them, that must seem like ages ago because they haven’t won since. The Padres are now 1-4 and they’re batting a major-league worst .185. In those five games, San Diego has scored eight times. Yeah, it’s early but these poor starts often last a month or more and right now the Padres are pure fade material. Less than two years removed from a sub-3.00 ERA season, Ian Kennedy was traded from Arizona to San Diego at the 2013 trade deadline. He had a 5.23 ERA at the time, and things didn't exactly turn around after the trade (4.24 ERA in 10 starts with SD). Not much has changed in Kennedy's skill set other than the control spike so there’s probably not going to be much change in his ERA either. Most disturbing about Kennedy’s profile is that he tanks the second and third time through the order almost every time he takes the hill and now he’s facing a Marlins team that are not only swinging some hot sticks but that is also having more fun than any team in baseball.
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Miami is 5-1 and they have deserved every win. They lead the NL with a batting average of .313, which is second in the majors behind Detroit. The Marlins 40 runs in six games leads the major leagues. This is a very speedy and aggressive team that has yet to hit into a double play this year. That keeps rallies alive and they are probably not going to need many runs to defeat the reeling Padres. Keep your eye on Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi showed signs in the spring of turning his upper-90s heat into strikeouts. He threw 18 spring innings and struck out 16 while issuing just five walks. In his first start against Colorado, Eovaldi went six full, struck out six, walked one and gave up just two earned runs. He was the winning pitcher and he looked impressive. Eovaldi quietly posted the highest four-seam fastball velocity in 2013 among starters with at least 40 IP. This guy has dominant raw stuff (96 MPH heat) and is one of the most intriguing and under-the-radar pitchers in the game. The Padres early season miseries continue.
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Rob Vinciletti

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins -120

Miami has started out hot winning 5 of their first 6 this season and have now won 8 of their last 10 here at home. They fit a powerful system that plays on home favorites with a total of 8 or less that come in off a home favored win at -140 or higher by 5 or more runs on 10 or more hits, vs an opponent that lost on the road as a dog by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less run son 5 or more hits. If both teams had no more than 1 error in their last game the system is cashing around 85%. The Padres are have not hit yet and are under .180 through the first week. They have lost 6 of the last 8 here in Miami. They have Ian Kennedy going and he has lost 9 of his last 11 road starts. Miami counter with Nathan Eovaldi who has won both starts vs San Diego allowing just 1 run in 11 innings. Look for Miami to take the finale.

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Bryan Leonard

Tampa Bay -105

A great pitching matchup awaits at Tropicana Field on Sunday between Alex Cobb and Yu Darvish. We're extremely high on Alex Cobb this season, a guy with tremendous breaking stuff who was in line for a Cy Young-type season without the comebacker that hit him in the head and shortened his 2013 campaign. Obviously we're always going to be high on Yu Darvish, but there are some issues with Darvish entering this start.

Darvish missed his Opening Day start with neck discomfort. He threw a simulated game in order to be cleared for this start and made 86 pitches. Against a Rays lineup that is going to be patient and force Darvish into the strike zone, he may not pitch that deep into the game. Darvish admitted that he wasn't pleased with his command during his simulated game and the neck and back certainly affected his preparation for the season. Darvish will be just fine, but this is a very tough opening assignment.

Alex Cobb boasted the league's ninth-most effective changeup among starters with 140 or more innings and the eighth-highest chase rate. He's a very difficult pitcher to face, especially for the Rangers, a team with a lot of guys that have long swings. The Rangers generally have a lot of success with pitchers who work up in the zone, but Cobb has a heavy sinker that induced over 55 percent ground balls last season.

The Rays have a bullpen advantage in this game as the Rangers have had to weaken their bullpen depth by moving relievers Robbie Ross and Tanner Scheppers into the rotation. That played out on Saturday night when the Rays won 5-4 by scoring off of the bullpen. We won't have many chances to get Alex Cobb at this price at home. Yu Darvish is clearly elite, but we're not sure he's fully ready for this start and the Rays are going to make him earn every out.

Jimmy Boyd

Chicago White Sox +119

I'm backing the White Sox as they will be extremely motivated here to avoid the sweep against the Royals. Chicago has been in each of the first two games. They lost 5-7 on Friday and 3-4 yesterday. Prior to those two defeats, these two teams had split their previous 18 games in Kansas City.

Not only are we getting Chicago in a solid spot, but they have their ace Chris Sale scheduled to take the mound. Sale has had quite a bit of success against the Royals. In 10 career starts he's posted a 2.58 ERA and 1.263 WHIP. In his last start at Kauffman Stadium, he allowed just 1 run over 7 and 1/3 innings of work. Sale is also coming off a strong performance in his first start of the season, where he allowed just 3 runs in 7 and 1/3 innings versus the Twins. It's also worth mentioning that the White Sox are 6-1 in Sale's last 7 starts during game 3 of a series.

We also have a solid underdog system in play. Road underdogs that won between 38% to 46% of their games the previous season, who are revenging a one run loss the last time out are 52-32 since 1997. That's a 62% system in favor of the White Sox!

Scott Spreitzer

Cincinnati Reds -117

Alfredo Simon could have easily been moved back to the pen with the injury to Aroldis Chapman, but instead, the Reds have decided to have him start in place of injured starter Mat Latos. I think that says a lot about their confidence in the 32-year old veteran. The righty has been stellar out of the pen for the Reds the last couple of seasons finishing 2013 with a 2.87 ERA in 63 appearances after posting a 2.66 ERA in three dozen appearances in 2012. He struggled a little (4.90 ERA) in 16 starts and 7 appearances for the Orioles in 2011, but he gets "just what the doctor ordered" to make a start on Sunday, facing the mediocre Mets at Citi Field, rather than the AL lineups he faced at Camden. Jonathon Niese was activated by the Mets on Saturday he's expected to start on Sunday, but I don't like his matchups in this one (the Reds clocked southpaws in road day action last season) and he may not be given a lot of slack in his return from elbow and shoulder soreness. While the sample size has been small, Simon has held the Mets scoreless in three appearances against them and I'm betting he'll hold them in check again today. I'm recommending a play on the Reds on Sunday.

Timothy Black

Cleveland Indians -1½ +120

The Indians are 11-4 in Masterson's last 15 starts as a home favorite and they are 13-3 in their last 16 home games as a favorite of -151 to -200. Also, the Indians are 4-1 in Masterson's last 5 home starts vs. the Twins. The Twins are only 2-7 in their last 9 road games and show a winless 0-6 record in their last 6 games as an underdog of +151 to +200. The Twins are just 1-7 in their last 8 meetings with Cleveland as well.

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Chicago White Sox at Kansas City RoyalsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago White SoxFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Last year Chisox starter Chris Sale got no run support vs. the Royals; Sale went 1-2 with a 1.84 ERA in four starts against Kansas City a season ago as the White Sox scored one run for him in 29 1/3 innings. But the Pale Hose are generating some offense in the early going this season, batting .286 and scoring 5.80 runs per game. After two tough losses at the Big K, expect Sale to outduel James Shields and helping the Chisox salvage the last game of this weekend set.

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New York Knicks at Miami HeatFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New York KnicksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The $64,000 question at hand tonight is which Heat team shows up? Will it be the two-time defending champions, or the one that owns a dismal 17-23 ATS mark versus losing teams this season, including 6-14 ATS against foes seeking same season revenge. Our presumption is the latter, especially with the Heatles off a double-overtime loss to the Timberwolves and looking dead ahead to a highly anticipated triple revenger here with Brooklyn on Tuesday. Enter the playoff-tracking Knickerbockers, looking to avenge a 109-82 beatdown suffered in their last visit to Miami – their 2nd worst loss in this series in 24 years. A 3-0-1 ATS series mark here in games with revenge from a 20-plus point defeat certainly factors into our course of action here. So does the Heat’s 6-11 SU record in games immediately before playing a same season triple-exact revenger. With that we’re back on the Knicks bandwagon in their quest of securing that coveted playoff spot. We recommend a 1-unit play on New York.

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Atlanta Hawks at Indiana PacersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Atlanta HawksFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two teams in the East that have been free-falling of late are these two. Indiana is now percentage points behind Miami for the best record in the East while Atlanta is in great danger of falling out of the 8th playoff spot all together. The Hawks lead New York by just one game and Cleveland by two games. So while both teams would like to get back to winning, today's contest holds more importance for the Hawks. That being said, these have been two pathetic teams. The Hawks have won two of their last three games, but those wins are over Philadelphia and Cleveland. The Hawks are down to six regular season games left and two of those are against Indiana and Miami. As for Indiana, what a bad time to go into the tank. Indiana got demolished by San Antonio last week, 103-77. They did win the next time out at home over Detroit, 101-94. But that win was only their second straight-up victory in their last eight games. And as for the bettors, this has been one of the worst point spread runs I have seen. The Pacers are 0-8 ATS their last eight games, 2-19 ATS their last 21 and 7-29 ATS their last 36 games. It doesn't get much worse than that. Part of the reason is the poor play of Paul George, who during a seven-game stretch hit just 33% from the floor and averaged 16 ppg. While neither of these clubs are a bargain, I have to take the points here with the Hawks. Atlanta needs a good effort to hold onto that final playoff spot and even if they don't win outright, they should cover the 8 1/2 point spread.

Art Aronson

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays -120

The Jays exacted revenge yesterday for their home opening loss to the Yankees and I think they carry it on for one more win here. The Yankees will send lefty C.C. Sabathia (0-1, 9.00) to the hill. Sabathia may have lost a lot of weight in the off season but it hasn’t really helped his game. Sabathia gave up six earned runs in his season opener while lasting just six innings at Houston. Sabathia’s ERA was up to 4.78 last season as his velocity is down and all early signs this year point clearly to his best best days being behind him. The big lefty has had his share of success against the Jays over his career but note that he has given up nine runs (4 earned) and 18 hits through his last 15 innings pitched versus the Jays. Toronto meanwhile send its young up and coming pitcher in Drew Hutchison (1-0, 0.00) to the hill. Hutchison threw 5 2/3 shutout innings in a win at Tampa Bay. Hutchison gave up one run over six innings in his only career start against New York, a 4-1 Toronto victory May 17, 2012. Derek Jeter and Mark Teixeira were the only current Yankees to face him in that contest. The Jays have got great production from their most important hitter in Jose Bautista. Bautista homered again yesterday and already has three long balls early this season. The Yankees are almost a brand new team with big off season acquisitions and have noticeably struggled at times and this early road trip certainly isn’t helping things. Consider a play on the Jays.

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Arizona vs. ColoradoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado has scored 21 runs in two games so far in this series. They actually fell behind 4-0 early last night before getting to a D'backs pitching staff that has been shaky at best so far in 2014. Opposing hitters have already belted 12 home runs off them and the staff ERA of 6.99 is a MLB worst. Pitching here in the thin air of Coors Field obviously doesn't help. Then again, the team's offense hasn't really taken advantage either, particularly when runners are in scoring position. They were 0 for 8 in that situation yesterday and now 2 for 27 w/ RISP the last four games. As a team, they're batting just .237 overall. So the bottom line is that everyone deserves some blame for this franchise-worst 1-7 start.
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Today's starter for Arizona is Wade Miley and while he got the start in the team's only win this year, he was fortunate to do so after allowing four runs in the first inning. I look for the Rockies to finish off the sweep here as Arizona's bullpen has been no better than its starting rotation.

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New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue JaysFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Toronto Blue JaysFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The numbers tell the tale, and for the present, it’s a sad story. CC Sabathia has gone from a dominating power pitcher to a guy who is going to have to nibble and hope for the best. The big lefty averaged just 89 with his heater in start number one, and the slider was arriving at barely 80 MPH. There’s not much room for error for Sabathia with that kind of velocity and his mistakes are getting hit very hard.
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It’s natural for pitchers to lose some steam on their heat as the years go by, but the drop is usually a gradual thing. In the case of Sabathia, the falloff has been much quicker and he’s clearly having big trouble adjusting. His HR rate was a career worst in 2013, and the 2014 debut was disheartening, to put it mildly.
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Sabathia isn’t the only worry the Yankees have right now. I’m assuming some of the older players will get going once the weather warms up, but one has to wonder if this team will still be relevant if and when that happens. Right now, they’re as punchless as a team can be. Soriano is hitting .000, Beltran looks sluggish, Jeter isn’t exactly raking, Teixeira is already on the DL, and so on. They’re a bad looking baseball team right now.
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Drew Hutchison will throw today for the Blue Jays, and he’s enjoying a tremendous spring. Hutchison got the best of Alex Cobb and the Rays in his first start coming out of a very strong spring training, and the Jays have to be thrilled with the progress he’s making in his return from injury.
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I’m not sold on this Toronto offense, especially with no Jose Reyes for the time being. But it’s the better attack in this matchup, and it sure looks like Hutchison has to rate an edge over Sabathia at this point. I don’t know if the big guy is going to be able to make the necessary adjustment from what he used to be to what he is right now. But I’m certain that he’s going to have to offer proof he can be more than a heavy bag, and until that time, Sabathia has to be fade material at the right price. The number here is quite reasonable, so I’ll have to side with the Blue Jays notch the series finale.

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Tampa Bay -105FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This game features the 2-3 Rangers at the 4-2 Rays. Again the Rangers are a good very good team but they are banged up. Yu Darvish makes his first start back from injury today and I'm not sold he's 100% ready. I'm sure it will take him awile to shake the rust off so getting a great line like this for a good Rays team is something I want my clients on. Alex Cobb got roughed up last time out and will be determined to out pitch Darvish

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