Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego at MiamiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nathan Eovaldi has the tools to be a better than average National League starter. His velocity sits in the mid-90's and everything about his progression over the last few years suggests he's sitting on a solid season. In Eovaldi's looked the part as he fanned six and allowed only two runs in a win over Colorado. Ian Kennedy made the wise choice in going to San Diego where he should be able to get by with marginal stuff and guts. But in his first start of the season I noticed that his velocity was way up from last year with his average fastball was around 92. Kennedy knows how to pitch and that extra mph can make a huge difference, especially when throw off of his off-speed stuff. As mentioned in yesterday's Free Play winner (SD/MIA under), the Padres have been offensively inept with only 8 runs in five games. Two low profile yet effective starters and the early start getaway day environment points us towards the under.
Andre GomesFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Knicks / Heat Under 197FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We can expect this contest to be a "brutal" half court game because both teams are playing @ ridiculous slow pace lately. The fact that this contest will be a slow paced one isn't anything "new" because we are dealing w/ ranked #29 (NYK) and #26 (MIA) teams in terms of Pace Factor. However, both teams (especially Miami) are playing even slower lately! According to my numbers, MIA Pace Factor season number = 89.9 vs. L10 games = 84.8! You can see the difference…
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Regarding the matchups… both teams aren't particularly sharing the ball as of late… MIA is averaging just 19.9 assists per game in L7 games, while NYK = 18.2 assists/game in L5 games!
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Carmelo Anthony is banged up (he looked awful in the last game vs. NYK!) and the Knicks will now face an improved MIA perimeter defense that is allowing just 31.9% from 3pts in L10 games = #2 best mark in the league behind only the Bulls!
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On the other side, D. Wade is still OUT for this contest and this is some good news for NYK's awful perimeter defense. Still, note that NYK defense has been a bit better lately, they have allowed 84, 83, 81 and 90 points in the L4 games!
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The correlation between the matchups & expectation of this contest being a pure slow paced half battle = fair line = 184 points = proper edge to take the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!
Timothy Black
Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +154
The Dodgers are 6-1 in Greinke's last 7 starts as a home favorite and 13-2 in his last 15 starts at home. Also, overall, the Dodgers are 17-5 in Greinke's last 22 starts as a favorite and show a 20-6 record in his last 26 trips to the mound.
As good as Greinke has been, Matt Cain has been equally as bad, especially against the Dodgers. The Giants have actually won 5 straight games in Los Angeles, but with Cain on the mound it's an entirely different story, as they are only 1-6 in Cain's last 7 starts against the Dodgers.
The Giants are just 1-4 in Cain's last 5 starts as a road underdog and only 3-13 in his last 16 starts overall. Also, unsurprisingly, the Giants are 0-5 in Cain's last 5 starts against a team with a winning record.
Tom Grassi
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
Play: Under 8½
New York and Toronto have split this 3-game series with the Yankees winning Friday night and the Jays shutting out the Yankees yesterday. Today, Sabathia takes the hill against Hutchison.
C.C. didn’t pitch very pitch very well in his season debut getting knocked around by the weak hitting Astros. He went six innings allowing six earned runs on eight hits. For Hutchinson he pitched very well in his first start going 5 1/3 innings and not allowing a run versus Tampa Bay. He gave up only three hits while striking out four Ray hitters.
We look for Sabathia to bounce back today against a Toronto team that he has pitched very well against in his career. He has a 3.00 ERA in 19 starts including an April outing last year going eight innings and allowing only three earned runs. Hutchinson has faced the Yankees only once allowing only one arned run in six innings of work.
The total in this contest opened at 9 runs but has been bet down to 8.5 runs. Look for a low scoring game this afternoon in Toronto.
Dennis Macklin
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Play: Los Angeles Clippers -15½
Strangely enough, this game still probably means something to the "little brother" in the City of Angels. The Clipper have been raging the last 60 days. They've won six of eight, covered four of five , they're 7-3 SU and ATS in the L10 in the series including a 4-1 SU and ATS badge over the last five in the series when the Staples Center is decked out in Blue and Red. The teams met exactly a month ago with clips dropping a 142-94 beatdown of Showtime. The meeting before that was 123-87 Clippers. Can't see Doc Rivers trying t do anything other than get out of Dodge healthy but with a win. That said, the Lakers sans Gasol are especially bad and the D'Antoni Matador defense is going to give up a lot of easy points. Clips give one to the fans, lets call it 128-104.
Steve Janus
Diamondbacks/Rockies Over 9½
These two teams have combined for 25 runs in the first two games of this series, with at least 12 runs scored in each contest. I see no reason why they won't hit double-digits once again at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Both teams will be sending out starters who struggled in their first outing. Arizona's Wade Miley allowed 4 runs at home to the Giants, while Colorado's Brett Anderson was tagged for 4 runs at Miami.
Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (ARIZONA) - poor NL offensive team (=4.50), with a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities are 45-16 (74%) since 1997! I also see that the OVER is 21-7-1 in the Rockies last 29 home games with a total set at 9 to 10.5 runs and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams.
Jack Jones
New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Play: New York Knicks +7
The New York Knicks are fighting for their playoff lives right now. They trail the Atlanta Hawks by one game for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference with just five games to go. Every game for them is a must-win right now, so they won't be lacking any motivation.
New York has handled the pressure well by playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. The Knicks have gone a sensational 12-4 in their last 16 games overall just to give themselves a chance. They aren't about to pack it in now that they have come this close.
Sure, Miami wants to clinch the No. 1 seed in the East, but it hasn't exactly been playing great over the past month. The Heat have kind of coasted to the finish line, going a mediocre 9-9 in their last 18 games overall. Now, Dwyane Wade is expected to miss Sunday's game against New York, leaving the Heat short-handed.
The Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. New York is 30-15 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 points or more over the past two seasons.
Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles DodgersSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco has come in and already taken the first two games of this series against the Dodgers, winning 8-4 on Friday night and then 7-2 yesterday. But now they face one of the best "home" pitchers in all of baseball over the last several years, as Zach Greinke owns an incredible 22-5 team start record as a home favorite.
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That number jumps to a near-perfect 17-2 when listed as a home favorite of -150 or higher, and despite the Giants playing with confidence and taking the first two games of this series, we can't go against that type of history. Matt Cain owns a losing 5-10 record vs. the Dodgers in his career, and he's just 1-6 (team start record) in his most recent seven meetings.
Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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NY YANKEES (+110) over TorontoFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Yankees lefty CC Sabathia has owned Toronto going 14-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 19 career starts versus the Blue Jays. That's enough to get us on the Bronx Bombers this afternoon. Yankees left men in scoring position all afternoon in losing to Toronto on Saturday but bounce back behind their ace today.
Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia Phillies -130FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubs are a bad baseball team that just can't put up runs. Until Vegas adjust the price in their games why not keep going against them? The Phillies will start 37 year old AJ Burnett today. If the Cubs can't hit him them you know they are in for a long year. The Phillies will struggle this year, but this Cubs team is the worst in baseball and at this price you fade them until they prove you wrong. Take the Phillies.
Michael Alexander
Atlanta Hawks vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Atlanta Hawks +8
The Indiana Pacers look to turn things around Sunday against visiting Atlanta in a game that has an impact on two separate Eastern Conference playoff races. The Pacers have dropped six of their last eight games and now sit percentage points back of the Miami Heat in the race for the No. 1 seed in the conference. Atlanta is coming off an impressive 117-98 victory over Cleveland and sits a game up on the Knicks for eighth place in the East. The Pacers are 6-21-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss.
Joe Gavazzi
Dallas Mavericks -8
The Mavs are locked into a chase for the final two Playoff spots in the West with every victory important. Expect them to use the road/home dichotomy in this matchup to get the pointspread victory. Under HC Carlisle, the Mavs are a long term 52-30 ATS away, 26-10 ATS more recently. Sacramento has long ago tossed the towel, witness their 10-69 loss to Golden State on Friday. The Kings complete the dichotomy with a home record of 13-19 ATS as home chalk to plus 6. For the Kings, PG Thomas is again expected to miss while Rudy Gay is questionable.
Analytics Trading
Knicks at Heat
Pick: Over
In a potential 1st round match up, our data supports the belief that Miami will in fact look to end New York's playoff run in one game as opposed to a 4 game series. That said the total is desperately low at 186 and our number is an astronomical 198. Take the Over 186
Larry Ness
Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns
Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder
Phoenix (45-31) is tied with Memphis for eighth place in the Western Conference with Dallas a half-game ahead of both. However, the Grizzlies hold the tiebreaker over the Suns by virtue of winning the teams' first three matchups and they'll meet again in Phoenix on April 14. "Our destiny is in our own hands, because we still play Dallas and Memphis," said Goran Dragic, averaging a team-leading 20.4 points this season but shooting 32.6 percent over his last three contests. "Those two games are going to be really huge for us. Win those games and it's going to be really close."
Phoenix has won NINE of 12, with Gerald Green going 30 of 65 from three-point range (46.2 percent) in the last 11. He was 4 of 7 on Friday as the Suns improved to 7-0 when he has at least 28 points, scoring 32 in a 109-93 win at Portland while Eric Bledsoe had a season-high 30. Bledsoe (17.6) and Green (15.7) join Dragic to give Phoenix a dynamic trio of scorers in the backcourt. Green went 13 of 23 from beyond the arc as the Suns split the first two matchups with Oklahoma City this year, and he had a career-high 41 points as Phoenix snapped its 11-game skid in the series with a 128-122 home victory March 6. That marked the most points surrendered by the Thunder in a regulation game since a 133-120 defeat at Golden State on Feb 21, 2009.
Oklahoma City is 3 1/2 games behind San Antonio for the West lead and had limited opponents to 99.1 PPG during a 7-1 stretch prior to Friday's 111-107 loss at Houston, which was the following night after OKC ended the Spurs’ 19-game winning streak. While Houston’s James Harden had 39 points, Durant's 28 points marked his 40th consecutive game with at least 25 points. That matches Michael Jordan's streak in 1988-89 as the third-longest in NBA history. He’s scored 67 points over the first two meetings with Phoenix and is also averaging a career-high 5.6 assists. With Russell Westbrook's injuries limiting him to 41 games, Durant’s playmaking abilities have been a HUGE plus. "He's more mature. He's more comfortable with himself and has a better understanding of the game," teammate Nick Collison said of Durant, who is averaging 5.1 assists since the start of last season after averaging 2.8 over his first five NBA campaigns.
The Suns have made quite a turnaround this season (were a Western Conference-worst 25-57 last year) but are catching the Thunder off Friday’s loss to Houston and with a solid revenge motive after allowing a whopping 128 points in the last meeting. I believe the Suns are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Phoenix had better win those upcoming games with Memphis and Dallas because the Suns lose here.
Jeff Alexander
Los Angeles Angels -151
The Angels have bounced back from a 0-3 start with decisive victories in the first 2 of this series, and I expect expect them to record another "W" here given the advantage they possess on the pitcher's mound today. The Angels are an unbelievable 47-15 in Weaver's last 62 starts as a favorite, including 12-4 in his last 16 starts as a road favorite. Feldman has an ugly 5.64 lifetime ERA in 12 starts against the Halos, and his teams are 0-4 in his last 4 starts against them. The Astros are on a 7-30 slide when out for revenge for 2 straight home losses to an opponent and have lost these games by an average of 3.6 runs.