Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, April 7

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Boston at Toronto
The Red Sox look to bounce back from yesterday's 5-0 loss and take advantage of a Blue Jays team that is 0-5 in its last 5 games after allowing 2 runs or less in its previous game. Boston is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Sox favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110)

Game 901-902: Miami at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Fernandez) 15.189; NY Mets (Laffey) 14.652
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+130); Under

Game 903-904: Washington at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 15.461; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.807
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-120); 7
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+100); Over

Game 905-906: Chicago Cubs at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 14.027; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.981
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Over

Game 907-908: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Kennedy) 14.506; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.638
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-110); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-110); Under

Game 909-910: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.374; San Francisco (Cain) 15.947
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+125); Over

Game 911-912: Pittsburgh at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Locke) 14.457; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 17.334
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 3; 7
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under

Game 913-914: San Diego at Colorado (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Volquez) 14.973; Colorado (Chacin) 14.616
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 11
Vegas Line: Colorado (-155); 10
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+135); Over

Game 915-916: NY Yankees at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 13.960; Detroit (Verlander) 16.754
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Under

Game 917-918: Boston at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 14.940; Toronto (Dickey) 14.629
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+110); Over

Game 919-920: Minnesota at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.689; Baltimore (Hammel) 16.980
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-180); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-180); Under

Game 921-922: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 13.943; Tampa Bay (Price) 17.043
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 6
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-200); 7
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-200); Under

Game 923-924: Seattle at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Iwakuma) 16.049; White Sox (Sale) 15.555
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+150); Over

Game 925-926: Oakland at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Anderson) 14.996; Houston (Harrell) 15.324
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+135); Over

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 15.351; Texas (Darvish) 15.001
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+120); Under

Game 929-930: Kansas City at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Shields) 15.355; Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.928
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Over

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas vs. PortlandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other three times this year: Dallas won 114-91 at home on November 5th. Portland won 106-104 at home on January 29th, before the Mavericks then won 105-99 in Dallas on February 6th. Dallas is 37-39 overall, and 15-24 on the road. It's coming off a 117-108 victory at Sacramento on Friday though, and will now look to parlay that momentum against the struggling Blazers as they make a push towards the playoffs (note that not only is Dallas 24-14 ATS on the road this year, but it's also 19-8 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, and 17-7 ATS vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99-plus points per contest). Portland is 33-43 overall, and 22-15 at home. The Blazers most recent loss was a listless 116-98 setback to Houston on Friday (note that Portland is only 17-23 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year, and only 11-12 ATS vs. good offensive teams that score 99-plus points per contest). For me, this comes down purely to motivation. This is a favorable stretch for the Mavericks, with two whole days off after tonight, and then vs. Phoenix on Wednesday: "We're playing game to game and trying to win every one and give ourselves a chance," Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle assessed last night. "This is a prideful group of guys. We want to finish this season on an uptick." Portland has nothing to play for, and has lost by an average of 17.3 points during its slide. Consider a second look at Dallas in this one.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona vs. MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Brewers look to be a team in trouble, with a bullpen that has continued to leak and injuries now piling up alarmingly. Already minus 1B Corey Hart, Milwaukee is now looking at being without All-Star RF Ryan Braun and 3B Aramis Ramirez as the injuries continue to mount, a disturbing sign to say the least in the first week of the season. Starter Yovani Gallardo has pitched well vs. the D-backs in the past, but was shaky in the opener vs. Colorado, allowing 10 hits and 2 homes against the Rockies, while Arizona counterpart Ian Kennedy was sharp last week vs. the Cardinals when limiting them to 2 runs on 5 hits over 7 IP in an eventual 6-2 win. These teams appear to be heading in opposite directions at the moment, and the D-backs have their brooms at the ready on Sunday at Miller Park.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Utah Jazz at Golden State WarriorsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Golden State WarriorsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Warriors will look to avenge a 14-point loss when they host the Jazz in a Western Conference clash in Oakland Sunday evening. Golden State will look to it sterling record at home this season knowing they are 9-2 ATS here in games off a win when hosting a .500 or greater foe. On the flip side, the Jazz have struggled away from the Delta Center this season, going 1-18 SU and 5-13-1 ATS against .500 or greater opposition. With that look for the Warriors to get their revenge here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Kansas City Royals vs. Philadelphia PhilliesSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Philadelphia PhilliesFORFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies are 9-0 since September 2010 following a game where they trailed after eight innings and won. The Phils came back big with a 3 run 8th inning to take down the Royals and qualify the the 9-0 angle. They have Cole Hamels going today and he has won his last 4 home starts and makes his first appearance vs a KC Team that has J. Shields on the hill. Shields is a pretty good pitcher in April. However he has allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings on 20 hits in 2 starts here in Philadelphia. The Phillies have won the last 4 times as a home favorite of a home favored 1 run win where they scored 4 or less run. Look for the Philles to take the rubber game today.

Jim Feist

Dallas Mavericks at Portland Trailblazers
Pick: Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks enter this last 10 days of the regular season on the outside of the playoff picture in the west. Dallas sits three-games back of the Lakers right now for that 8th and final playoff spot. Also sitting between them and that spot are the Jazz, which are 2 1/2 games ahead of the Mavs. As for Portland, they are pretty much out of it, seven games back of the Lakers. And if the Mavericks want to have a chance, they need games like this, against teams with worse records than themselves. The Mavs have two games left against New Orleans and one against Phoenix, all likely wins. They have to play Denver and Memphis, both tough games. So today's contest is one of those that they can't look past. The Mavs have been a good bettors friend, covering 28 of their last 41 overall. And, in their last 30 road games they are a very nice, 22-8 ATS. Dallas is also 8-3-1 in the last 12 meetings with the Blazers. All good reasons to be backing the visitor here on Sunday. Mavs can't let this one slip away. Take Dallas.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona at MilwaukeeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a miserable opening week this has been for Milwaukee. The Brewers are once again possessors of an alarmingly bad bullpen, so the biggest issue from the 2012 campaign has apparently not been rectified. Ryan Braun is having injury problems, Aramis Ramirez is on the DL with a beat up knee, Corey Hart won't be back for awhile, 2012 phenom Mike Fiers looks like a massive regression candidate, and top prospect Wily Peralta doesn't look ready. In other words, not a lot of good early news for the Brewers.
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Here's another potential red flag. What was with Yovani Gallardo in his first start? I noticed his velocity was off in that initial effort, and decided to investigate the charts to see if I could decipher anything. What I found was that he got two-seam happy, throwing that pitch 43% of the time. That probably explains the velocity dip, but it's also a mystery to me as to the reason for this pitch selection. The K rate dipped, he didn't generate more ground balls, and when he missed up in the zone, he got blasted. I don't know if this is simply an aberrational start, but if this is a new approach, Gallardo might want to scrap it as quickly as possible. Power pitchers should only transition if they need to, and this is now a situation worth monitoring.
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As for this game, Gallardo has insane stats against Arizona. Try 6-0, 1.02 lifetime, which is awesome. But the team stuff all points to the Diamondbacks, and Ian Kennedy was very impressive in his first start of the season. I'm not a huge history buff and put much more weight into current data, so I see the road team with the advantage here. The Diamondbacks are the choice as Sunday's free play.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego / Colorado Over 10FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado is the site of our Sunday Day Night MLB BIG TICKET over/under ..PLAY THE OVER 10-115 as the Chacin / Volquez will get bombed... Chacin a suspect 1.35 ERA and 2-2 with a 6.34 ERA in seven starts with opponents batting .321 against him last year... Padres Volquez an unreal 18 ERA and is off a six run stint in an 11-2 loss to the Mets... wow! 1-4 San Diego Pads will score today and these Rockies are off to a 4-1 start .... line is 10 for a reason.

Bob BalfeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Phillies -140FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies were down to their last pitch last night and came through to get a big much needed win. This pitching staff is the worst in all of baseball to date, but don’t make much of it as we are few games into the season. Games like yesterday are what wake teams up. Hamels is coming off a rough outing in his opener, but he is a great pitcher and I expect him to settle down today at home. This should be a nice pitchers duel this afternoon. Take the Phillies.
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Golden State -5.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jazz are not a good road team and are playing a Golden State team that has been playing very well the last few weeks. This team could shock a team or two in the NBA Playoffs. The Warriors can’t get any better playoff positioning, but if they do not win the games against weaker teams they are in jeopardy of dropping spot or two. Nobody wants to play the Spurs or the Thunder in the opening rounds. Take the Warriors

MLB PredictionsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Mariners / White Sox Under 7.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The White Sox won this afternoon's game 4-3 over Seattle, after the Mariners had won Friday night's opener 8-7. The Mariners are 3-3 now after splitting their opening 4 game series with Oakland. The Mariners have scored 3 or fewer runs in 4 of their 6 games, and are averaging 4 runs per game so far this year. The White Sox are 3-2 on the season, and they've scored 18 runs over their 5 games (just 3.6 runs per game). Sunday's starter for Seattle will be Hisashi Iwakuma who pitched 6 innings giving up 2 hits and 1 earned run in a win over Oakland in his first start of the year. Last season as a rookie he was 9-5 with a 3.16 ERA, .248 opponents batting average (OBA) and a 1.28 WHIP. Chicago will send Chris Sale to the mound. Sale went 7.2 innings allowing 7 hits but 0 earned runs (7 strikeouts and 1 walk) in a 1-0 victory over Kansas City in his first start. He is looking to have another great season after going 17-8 last year with a 3.05 ERA, .235 OBA and 1.14 WHIP. He was even better at home last year with a 9-3 record, 2.30 ERA, .215 OBA, and 0.98 WHIP. Note that dating back to last season the UNDER is 12-5-3 in the Mariners last 20 games vs a left handed starter. The UNDER is 37-18-3 in the White Sox last 58 games vs a right handed starter and 7-3 in Sale's last 10 starts overall. We've got two very solid pitchers on Sunday and two teams that aren't doing too much damage with the bats right now early in the year. I'm on the UNDER.

SPORTS WAGERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami +127 over N.Y. METSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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(1st 5 innings) After the Royals blew a 3-1 lead in the ninth inning yesterday, combined with a couple of other late leads our choices blew in the first week, we’re going to play these dogs in the first five innings only and attempt to take the pens out of the equation. Our picks are based largely on the starters so it would only make sense to utilize that. The 1-4 Marlins may not be as bad as advertised. Miami is putting the ball in play but they have been very unlucky in that balls are being hit right at people. A close look reveals that Marlins hitters have the second fewest strikeouts in the National League behind San Francisco. The Fish have the benefit here of facing Aaron Laffey, who is pitching for his fifth team in six major league seasons. Laffey went 4-6 with a 4.56 ERA in 101 IP for Toronto last year. It’s been five years of the same, dull, lifeless skills for Laffey. He has one of the worst strikeout rates of all MLB pitchers to go along with a three-year WHIP of 1.63 from ’09 to ’11. Laffey is a complete stiff that should never be in this price range against any major league team.
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In a surprising move, Miami added Jose Fernandez to its opening day roster. Fernandez is making the jump to the majors after accumulating only 138 IP in the minors, having yet to pitch beyond High-A Jupiter, where he made 11 starts in 2012. Despite his youth (20 years old), Fernandez belonged on the short list of top pitchers in the minors during 2012. Fernandez has a very athletic frame that supports his strong arsenal of pitches. He throws a plus, plus sinking fastball ranging from 93-97 that can top out at 99, a plus, plus slow curveball, a late breaking slider, and a change-up that has above-average potential and showing steady improvement. Fernandez has a ton of upside but it is always wise to expect an adjustment period for any pitcher making this large of a leap to the majors. Nonetheless, we’re happy to take our chances taking back a tag with this truly gifted talent that has ace potential written all over him.
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Pittsburgh +147 over LOS ANGELESFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Dodgers are 3-2 with Clayton Kershaw winning both his games and Zack Greinke winning the other. The Dodgers scored eight times in those three wins. When Greinke or Kershaw didn’t start, the Dodgers went 0-2 while being outscored 8-3. In other words, when those two guys aren’t starting, the Dodgers are too big a risk and this one is no different. Hyun-Jin Ryu became the first pitcher to ever make the jump straight from the Korean Baseball Organization to the majors when he pitched six solid innings in San Francisco in a 3-0 Dodgers loss. Ryu throws four pitches, a fastball, changeup, curveball, and slider. His fastball and changeup are his two above-average pitches, with his changeup being the best. However, the majors are a big step up from the Korean League and Ryu’s offerings hang around the edges of the plate too much. He throws strikes but they are hittable strikes and unless he learns to throw balls way off the plate when ahead in the count, he’s going to get burned.
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The Pirates are undervalued here because they have the league’s worst BA after five games that now stands at a pitiful .117. After facing Kershaw and Greinke in the first two games of this series, facing anyone else will be a welcome sight. Jeff Locke (LHP, PIT) posted a 131/43 K/BB in 141 IP at AAA Indianapolis prior to his recall in early August of last year. His MLB skills held up nicely with a 49% groundball rate and 34 K’s in 34.1 frames. Locke’s 5.50 ERA was the result of an unlucky 63% strand rate. Locke was acquired from the Braves in June ’09 and he focuses on command and control to succeed. Locke has clean arm action that produces a solid 88-92 mph fastball that features nice sink and movement. He can spot it to both sides of the plate effectively and it sets up his curveball and solid-average change-up. Locke won’t dominate but his pitch location is a strength and he can even vary his arm angles to keep hitters off-guard. Locke has also been very tough against lefties and the Dodgers big bats, aside from Matt Kemp, (Gonzalez, Crawford and Either) all bat from the left side.
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Chicago +128 over ATLANTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. Tim Hudson is high on our fade list and even more so after he opened the year in unimpressive fashion against the Phillies. Hudson lasted just 4.1 frames after surrendering six hits and three runs. He struck out three, walked three and was on the ropes the entire outing. Atlanta won that game 7-5, creating a nice overlay here on the Cubbies. The value Hudson provides on the surface is slowly eroding. His second half low strikeout rate from last season drops the first warning sign. Two straight years of fastball decline, to sub-90 mph, suggests he might not get it back. xERA warns that first 4.50+ ERA is on the horizon. Hudson is middle-rotation filler now, and at age 37, it could all go quickly.
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We get a big edge on the mound here with Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija went eight full innings in his first start of the year against Pittsburgh and threw an eight-inning, two-hit shutout. He struck out nine batters and walked just one. In that first start, 72% of balls in play hit off Samardzija were hit on the ground and while that mark is unsustainable, it’s in line with his increasing skill set. Samardzija developed into a legit rotation anchor after the All-Star Break in 2012 and he’s showing signs of being even better this year. An explanation for his breakout can be found in his pitch mix. He is now throwing four different pitches at least 10% of the time: 95 mph fastball (54%), 85 mph slider (14%), 92 mph cutter (11%), 86 mph splitter (19%). With overpowering raw stuff and a varied arsenal, Samardzija's growth is for real and he offers up nothing but true value taking back a price against the geriatric ward.
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Boston +124 over TORONTOFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. R.A. Dickey is just your garden variety 37-year-old knuckleball pitcher. Um, not quite. Stunning strikeout rate spike was driven by the fastest knuckler in the East while he solidified elite control. Post-season abdomen surgery a concern and his first outing of the year wasn’t exactly dazzling. It’s not often that you see a reigning Cy Young award winner change teams. Can Blue Jays fans expect an encore performance? Dickey is unlikely to match last year’s numbers. His strand % was high all year, and hit % was low in the first half so his ERA should regress. xERA shows he should still post some good results but the low-3.00 ERA range is unlikely when you consider that AL East ballparks tend to enhance power. Dickey’s groundball rate also dipped in the second half, which is another concern. J.P. Arencibia caught Dickey in his first start with Toronto. Arencibia was charged with three passed balls and looked uncomfortable back there the entire game. The Red Sox already lead the league in stolen bases with six and that could definitely be a factor in this game. The Jays are playing very average ball with the infield defense looking very shaky.
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As we mentioned prior to Jon Lester’s first start in New York, Lester noted that he has refined his mechanics to stand taller on the mound, revealing that he started making an effort to correct his posture late last summer. “I was pitching like a guy who was 5-foot-10 as opposed to 6-foot-4,” Lester said. “It makes a big difference on the way the ball comes in the zone”. Lester pitched well enough to win on Opening Day, holding the Yankees to two runs on five hits over five innings of work. He struck out seven batters, which is perhaps the best sign that his two-year strikeout rate decline was just an aberration. Lester’s groundball rate remains an asset and so does his competitive nature. Lester hates to lose and worked extensively in the off-season to correct whatever it was that saw his numbers decline over the past 1½-years. He appears to be a prime bounce-back candidate and we’ll continue to ride him when a tag is offered until he shows us something different.

Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego t ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ColoradoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego's Edinson Volquez has one redeeming quality – he pitches in Petco Park where on occasion he can be counted on for a quality start. Outside of that, Volquez doesn't offer much upside. He's dealt with mechanical issues for over a year and it's resulted in little to no command. After getting smacked around in his first start Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley was back to the drawing board of trying to get Volquez's mechanics in order. So here we are with a mediocre pitcher struggling with his mechanics and confidence tossing in Coors Field. Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin does has upside so long as he's healthy. And when he's healthy – which he appears to be this season – he's got enough stuff to overcome Coors Field (see: 38 career starts, 4.18 ERA). The Padres have scored 13 runs in their first five games – the last two vs. Jeff Francis and Jon Garland in Coors. I think the market has helped us out a bit with Colorado now less than -150. I also won't talk anyone out of the over either. So long as your focus is the continued fade of Volquez you should be OK.

Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St. Louis vs. San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: San FranciscoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The last time Matt Cain faced the St Louis Cardinals, he helped pitch the San Francisco Giants into the World Series. Much less is on the line here, as he'll try to help the Giants take the rubber game of this three-game series with the Cards. For that to happen, Cain (16-5, 2.79 ERA in 2012), will need more support than he received in his Opening Day start this past Monday at Dodger Stadium. Cain allowed just four hits and struck out eight in six scoreless innings Monday but his teammates had no answer for LA's Clayton Kershaw in a 4-0 loss
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Adam Wainwright goes for the Cards, after giving up three earned runs and 11 hits while striking out six without a walk in six innings of a 6-2 opening day loss to the Diamondbacks on Monday. He has allowed a run over seven innings in each of his last two starts spanning the regular season and playoffs against the Giants. He is 2-2 with a 1.72 ERA in his last five overall vs San Francisco but 2-4 in seven career starts (team is 3-4), despite a 2.66 ERA.
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Cain is a modest 3-4 (4.37 ERA) in 10 career starts vs. the Cards but the last time he faced the Cards was in Game 7 of the NLCS, allowing five hits over 5.2 innings of San Francisco's 9-0 rout. San Francisco has won three of its first five games despite averaging 2.4 RPG and going 2-for-21 with RISP this season. My bet is that 'nonsense' ends here and Cain gets enough support to win. After all, he doesn't need much help. Cain is a remarkable 73-9 when the Giants provide him with at least three runs of support!

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals +100FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Nats are showing value at this price with ace Stephen Strasburg on the bump. The right-handed flame thrower has been nearly unhittable in the daylight. Washington has won 15 of his last 17 day starts by an average score of 4.5 to 2.2. The Nationals are also 12-0 in Strasburg's last 12 starts in the third game of a series, 7-0 in his last 7 starts versus the National League Central and 7-0 in his last 7 Sunday starts. Johnny Cueto has had some success against Washington, but the Nationals are a lot more familiar with him. Cincinnati has only seen Strasburgh once, and that puts it at a disadvantage. Take Washington.