Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday April, 8

Marc Lawrence

San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: San Francisco Giants

The Giants close out their three game series with the Diamondbacks when they send the steady serves of Matt Cain to the hill in Arizona Sunday afternoon. Cain enters off a fine spring camp where he was 3-0 with a 1.74 ERA, while issuing three walks against 20 strikeouts. He is also 9-3 in his last 12 team starts in this series and was 4-1 in his five teams starts in April last season. The bottom line is there are too many good numbers to ignore here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on San Francisco.

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics -4

The Celtics fit a nice system that has cashed 9 of the last 10 times and plays on certain home favorites with no rest that scored 90 or less as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent off a home game that shot 45% or less. The Celtics have won 10 straight at home with no rest off a road game and the ixers who struggle to get 80 points of late have failed to cover in 3 of the last 4 as a road dog with no rest off a home game and blew an 8 point half time lead in last nights loss to Orlando. Look for Boston to shut down the Sixers and get the cash in this one.

Dave Cokin

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Philadelphia Phillies

That Phillies offense is not looking good but they'll have a chance to get something rolling here against James McDonald. He was still having command issues in spring ball. Vance Worley burst on the scene last year and I like him to start fast this season. I'll back the Phillies to get past the Bucs today.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers
Pick: Chicago White Sox

Chicago struggles against righties, but the White Sox are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter and they face southpaw Matt Harrison. Chicago starter Gavin Floyd has above average stuff as opponents hit .247 off him last year (12 wins). He was 8-6 with a 3.41 ERA on the road. And the Rangers are 1-8 in their last 9 games with Mark Wegner behind home plate. Play the White Sox.

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +109 over SAN DIEGO

The Dodgers are 3-0 while the Padres are 0-3 and that first win becomes harder to come by with each passing loss. The Padres trailed yesterday’s game 5-0 before rallying to tie it but don’t be fooled by that. They had four hits the entire game and they’re hitting a combined .126 over their first three games. Not only are they losing, but they’re already pressing at the plate. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have 26 hits and 17 runs in the first three and come into this one in a great state of mind. The pitching matchup of Aaron Harang versus Clayton Richard certainly doesn’t favor the Padres either. Last season, shoulder surgery ended Richards’ year in July. Before that he had poor control and a 5.30 ERA on the road. So if Petco helps him, so be it, his lack of consistent command puts success in comfy parks at risk too and with marginal raw stuff, there's no strikeout uptick on the horizon either. Use his xERA of 4.34 as your guide. Aaron Harang faces the team he played for last season where he revived his career and posted an ERA of 3.05 at Petco. Clearly, luck played a big part in Harang's revival. But his xERA history doesn't vary all that much over the past four years and provides a better roadmap for what to expect. Having said all that, we’d much prefer to take back a tag with the Dodgers and Harang than spotting one with the struggling Padres and that stiff they’re sending out today. Play: Los Angeles +109 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis -103 over MILWAUKEE

The Brewers finally won a game yesterday when Zack Greinke shutout the Cardinals. Unfortunately for them, Randy Wolf is not Zack Greinke. Only twice in his career, 2002 and 2009, did Wolf manage an ERA beneath 3.50 and a WHIP under 1.20 and in eight of his 13 seasons he has had an ERA above 4.00 and a WHIP higher than 1.30. Last season, Wolf outpitched his xERA for third straight year. That’s some good fortune that will eventually run out. His skills are just middling, especially the past two years. His quality starts/disaster starts split reveals a pitcher more adept at avoiding failure than exhibiting real dominance. Beware this inning-eating Wolf in an above-average starter's clothing. Lance Lynn is another one of those potentially solid starters that the Cardinals seem to find every year. Lynn posted a 2.56 xERA and showed sound skills in 35 relief innings in 2011. In those 35 frames, he struck out 40, had a 57% groundball rate and he carried those skills into a successful spring. He has much more upside than down and he’s a better option than Wolf. Play: St. Louis -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Pass NBA

JR O'Donnell

SF Giants -121

Today's matinee game has the first pitch slated for 4:10 PM EST as the San Francisco Giants visit the Arizona Diamondbacks. We are going for win #7 OUT OF #8 in a row for this young 2012 season. We like the road warriors here, and here's why! SFG's Matt Cain has just signed a HUGE 112.5 million dollar five year deal with the G-Men. He has just completed a "5" year run where he went for 200+ innings pitched each year, and last year only surrendered "9" home runs. At the age of "27" he is just entering his prime, and for the last "5" years he has had a 3.26 ERA, averaged 175 K's a year plus "11" wins! His mound opponent Josh Collimenter hasn't been quite as consistent. He does have a career ERA of 3.38, and was 10-10 last season, but that's where the comparison really fades! Last year 47.5% of the balls hit off him were for fly balls, and that doesn't always bode well! This put him #4 for that percentage in the majors. He just made the fringe of the starting rotation, and it is precarious at best. Cain is out to prove he is worth the money, and has prepared himself to make a move to be one of the quality, durable pitchers in the bigs.

Harry Bondi

Philadelphia (+4) over Boston

We went with the Celtics on the phone service last night and won easily as they destroyed Indiana 86-72 as two point underdogs. But the aging Celtics have not played in the second of back to back games this season and they do not match up well with Philadelphia as this years two previous games has shown. Philadelphia has not only won the previous two contests but have hammered the Celtics by 30 and 13 points. Lets back the 76'ers as your Free Winner on Easter.

The Sports Capper

Chicago (-2) over New York

Chicago has covered the spread in 9 of the last 10 road games when the total posted is between 180 and 184.5 points and they have also covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games coming off two or more OVER the totals. Chicago has covered the spread in 36 of the last 55 games when the line posted is between +3 to -3 and they are only allowing an average of 88 points a game on defense this season.

Jack Jones

Houston Rockets -3

The Houston Rockets are showing solid value as a mere 3-point road favorite over the lowly Sacramento Kings Sunday. Houston is playing their best basketball of the season of late to jump up to the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference. However, the Rockets are only 1.5 games ahead of ninth-place Phoenix, so they're not about to let their foot off the gas.

Houston's two best wins this season have arguably been in their last two contests. They went on the road and beat Chicago 99-93 as an 8-point underdog, followed by a 112-107 win at the Los Angeles Lakers as a 6-point dog. This will be just their 2nd game in 6 days, so the Rockets come in well-rested.

The Sacramento Kings (19-37) appear to have finally packed it in. Sacramento is just 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Unlike Houston, this is a very tired team right now. The Kings will be playing the second of a back-to-back, their 3rd game in 4 days, and their 5th game in 7 days.

The Rockets are 20-5 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. The Kings are 10-31 ATS when playing 9 or more games in 14 days since 1996. Sacramento is 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5. Houston is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5. Bet the Rockets Sunday.

Wunderdog

Minnesota Twins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Play: Minnesota Twins

Minnesota has better offensive talent than we've seen so far. It will help to face a pitcher with average stuff, like they face here in Jason Hammel. Picked-up from Colorado, Hammell went 7-13 with a 4.76 ERA. He allowed more hits than innings pitched, but most alarming was his 68 walks in 170 innings. He puts a lot of guys on base, which was why he was 3-9 with a 5.30 ERA at home. Speaking of throwing strikes, that's what Twins starter Anthony Swarzak does best, walking just 13 batters in 63 2/3 innings last year. Swarzak started two games during spring training (both wins) and permitted only one run over a span of 9 2/3 innings. He also posted six strikeouts. The Twins are 5-1 in Swarzak's last six starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Play the Minnesota Twins.

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Chicago Bulls to cover against the New York Knicks.

The Knicks have been a resilient bunch as they keep posting wins even after losing Jeremy Lin and Amare Stoudemire.

Now Tyson Chandler is dealing with a hand injury. He is listed as probable. If he can’t go, that is a big problem for the Knicks.

Even if Chandler does play, the Knicks will have their troubles with the Bulls.
Derrick Rose is expected to be back in the lineup. The Bulls have gotten by without Rose, but they have lost two of their last three games.

With Rose back, those fortunes will change.

On the road, the Bulls are an impressive 21-7.

The Bulls have won their two previous meeting this season. They won at home on March 12, 104-99. They also won in New York, 105-102 on Feb. 2.

The Bulls continue their winning ways.

3♦ BULLS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the New York Yankees to get in the win column against the Tampa Bay Rays.

Phil Hughes, before spring training, looked to be the odd man out in the Yankees rotation. But he had a solid spring training and won a spot in the rotation for now.

Look for him to continue to have a good outing in the first part of the season before the inconsistent Phil Hughes shows up. Hughes should fare better than the first two pitchers the Yankees have started. And the Yankees should continue to score in this contest.

The Rays are starting Jeremy Hellickson, who has had a below-average spring training. He allowed 20 runs in 20 innings of work.

He had an impressive rookie season, but could be having a sophomore slump. When all said and done, I expect Hellickson to have a solid season, but it may take him a few starts to figure things out.

Look for the Yankees to take advantage of that with this start.

Take the Yankees.

2♦ YANKEES

DEREK MANCINI

For today's Free Play, I'm laying it with the Heat over the visiting Pistons. Look guys, I'm well aware of the Pistons recent surge, winning 5 of their L7 games SU (4-3 ATS). That being said, wins over Washington (twice), Cleveland, Charlotte, and an incredibly inconsistent Orlando team don't really impress me and they shouldn't impress you either. They took advantage of some bad teams, but they're about to take a major step up in competition today in South Florida.

To say the Heat are motivated is an understatement. They just had their 17-game home winning streak snapped, and have had their desire called into question by media pundits around the country. Look for them to make an example out of Detroit today, as the Pistons simply do not have the personnel to match up.

Speaking of match ups, Prince and Maxiell are going to get eaten alive by James and Bosh. While there's no way in hell an "offense-only" player like Ben Gordon can cover Wade (which is why Hinrich used to cover Wade when they were both on the Bulls several years ago). Monroe is the Pistons lone edge, but even he'll have trouble against a very good Miami defense, that now has some added depth with Turiaf. This is a nightmare match up for Detroit and if you need any proof, check out their last meeting.

Bottom line, lay the points with a pissed off Heat team looking to make a statement tonight at home. No question the Heat were suffering from a little bit of a hangover following that hugely emotional win over OKC. Look for them to refocus and drop the hammer on the Pistons in this one. Lay it with Miami over Detroit Sunday.

2♦ MIAMI

Expecting good things from Jordan Zimmerman this season, now two years removed from his Tommy John surgery. His 3.11 ERA last season showed plenty of promise, despite his sub-par 8-11 record. Granted, he's 0-2 with a 6.00 ERA against the Cubs, but the line is telling us a much different story. I was curious to see how Zimmermann would pitch in the Spring and he didn't disappoint, posting a 3.38 ERA, including a solid 6 inning shutout of the Mets March 28th.

On the flips side, I'm not nearly as confident in Jeff Samardzija, who cracked the Cubs rotation following a rock-solid Spring and an impressive season in the pen last year. That being said, I remember clearly his last campaign as a starter back in 2010, when he went 2-3 with a 7.77 ERA. Granted, you expect he'll fare better this time around now that he's had some seasoning, but I'm still not convinced.

Even though its very early, if you're a Cubs-backer you have to be a bit concerned about how Marmol and Wood have started the season. They'll get there, but for the time being, the Nats can take advantage of a pen that's suddenly not as good as some thought they'd be. The fact Washington has come from behind in both wins this season, has to be a bit exasperating for the Cubs, and now they face a very good third starter in Zimmermann. All things considered, take Washington with Zimmermann to break out the brooms against the Cubs and Samardzija this afternoon.

2♦ WASHINGTON

JEFF BENTON

Your Sunday freebie is to take the points with the Raptors as they play at Oklahoma City this Sunday evening.

Doubtful the Toronto Raptors will win this game outright, but Toronto has been playing some highly competitive basketball now that they have some healthy bodies on the court, while Oklahoma City is most definitely in a bit of a back-slide coming into action this Sunday.

The Thunder return home mired in a three game straight up and against the spread losing streak, and they have also lost the last pair, and three of the last five series meetings to the Raptors straight up.

As for Toronto, they come into this game having won three of their last four straight up, and five of nine overall straight up. The Raptors have also collected a 16-11 road spread mark in their 27 played in the United States.

I say take the points, as Toronto proves a sticky shake-off for the struggling Thunder.

3♦ TORONTO

MATT RIVERS

Your NBA free play is to ride the rolling Spurs to make it 11 straight with the win and cover over Utah.

That's right, San Antonio has now won their last 10 games, and 11 of their last 14 overall straight up to pull into a dead-heat with the Thunder for the overall #1 spot in the West standings.

Can't see Utah offering too much resistance, as the Spurs have kept the Jazz at heel the last five times the teams have met, and have covered in four of the five victories.

San Antonio is a money-making 19-7 against the spread at home this season, while Utah is a money-burning 11-17 against the spread away from home this year.

The Jazz is on a 3-5 straight up slide their last eight, and just 2-6 against the spread in those eight games.

Not much changes tonight, take San Antonio to keep their winning ways in tact.

4♦ SAN ANTONIO

Your baseball comp play winner is to take the Over in the Yankees-Rays series finale today at Tropicana Field.

Thus far these two division rivals have been bruising the pitchers, as Friday's season opener saw a combined 13 runs cross, while last night's contest saw 14 combined runs come home.

Obviously both the starting pitching and the relievers have not been getting the job done, so there is no reason to suspect that either Phil Hughes of the Yankees or Jeremy Hellickson of the Rays will be going out there today and mowing them down for extended stretches.

The hitters have been having their way, and I expect another day of raking between both teams, as the bullpens get extended once more.

Take the Over in the Yankees-Rays game.

3♦ OVER