Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 13,2011

Marc Lawrence

Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons
Prediction: Detroit Pistons

When the Pistons host the Trailblazers at the Palace in Auburn Hills Sunday evening they will do so off a 14-point home loss against Miami Friday evening. That's good news for the Men from Motown considering they are 5-0 SU and ATS at home this season in games off a home loss. In addition, Detroit is 3-0 ATS this campaign when playing with revenge off a SU and ATS loss against an opponent off a win. With Portland 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four tries as road chalk against Eastern Conference opposition, we'll stay at home in the Palace with the Pistons here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Craig Trapp

Providence vs. Connecticut
Play: Providence +10

UCONN is just not playing well losing 3 of last 4 and 0-4 ATS. The Friars have not been winning many but against top teams they are 3-0 ATS last month. Walker looks like he has run out of steam. Plus Friars can score in bunches will be tough for UCONN to win this one by more than 5. Friars cover easily.

Rob Vinciletti

Siena vs. Manhattan
Play: Siena -5.5

Siena is a perfect 16-0 vs losing teams in the second half the last 3 years and already owns a win vs Manhattan this season. Manhattan is just 2-9 vs Winning teams and 2-1 off 3 or more losses. They are 1-5 straight up and against the spread as a home dog in this range and 0-6 revenging a road loss. Lay the number with a better Siena team.

Info Plays

3* Portland Trail Blazers

Reasons why Portland will cover:

1) The Pistons haven't been all that great at home this season, and go up against an underrated Portland team that has really turned it on lately. The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.

2) Portland is 19-8 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons, and are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

3) Detroit is just 43-65 ATS in home games over the last 3 seasons, and only 14-27 ATS in home games against the Western Conference over the last 3 seasons.

Brent Brooks

Iowa PK

The funny thing is - if Iowa goes on to win this game it will count as a top 25 win for their program. However, its unlikely Minnesota - losers of four straight - will be in the top 40 when next week's rankings come out. The Gophers are reeling right now and Iowa's three conference wins have come in their last three home games. Look for Melsahn Basabe to have another double/double as the Hawkeyes get their fourth conference win and the Minny woes continue at least one more game.

James Patrick Sports

Thunder vs. Warriors

Kevin Durant's and the Thunder are (5-1) in their past (6) contests while Durant has scored (34.7) PPG and Durant has also lit up the Warriors in three seasons with OKC, scoring (32.8) PPG with (9.2) RPG. Golden State has had two days rest, as opposed to none for Oklahoma City, in preparation for this contest. We look for a pair of high scoring teams to light it up in a Bay Area Shoot-Out. Your Sunday Night NBA complimentary selection is #815 Oklahoma City - Golden State Over the Total.

Cajun Sports

Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Selection: Memphis Grizzlies -2

Denver and Carmelo could blame the fact he has been involved in trade talk to not only the Knicks but lately even the Lakers for a poor performance but they haven’t and probably won’t. Although they may not mention it as a distraction to the team, it has to have some effect on their team chemistry not only on the court but off the court as well. The Grizzlies have quietly put together a nice run against the spread covering fifteen of their last twenty-three games overall. They are also 17-8 straight up at home this season posting a record of 14-10 ATS mark in those contests. Memphis gave the Nuggets all they could stand in a meeting at the Pepsi Center back in December losing by one-point 108 to 107. The Grizzlies are 20-10 ATS revenging a loss and 17-8 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Two key angles tell us they are 20-9 ATS versus teams that score at least ninety-nine points per game and 9-1 ATS when facing Northwest Division opponents. The Denver Nuggets are 0-10 ATS failing to cover the spread by 8.1 points per game with two or more days of rest off a home win in which they trailed at the end of the third quarter. A check of our database reveals a powerful league-wide system that tells us to Play ON an NBA rested team (not a favorite of more than 3 points or underdog of more than 1 point) vs. an opponent favored in the last 15 matchups and not off an underdog straight up win. These rested teams are 24-3-1 ATS covering by an average of 6.9 points per game since 2004. Take the host here as the Grizzlies grab a big victory over the Nuggets on Sunday night.

Matt Rivers

Miami Heat -2 at Boston

Reasoning: Doc Rivers' Celtics are a mentally tough team that has certainly been able to step it up at times recently in big spots but I just don't see them getting it done today. First place in the Eastern Conference is on the line and with the way LeBron and his teammates have struggled at times it's quite astounding they can be in this position.

The Heat have not been the greatest team ever which some believed they would be but for them to still be at the top of the conference with all of the early losing shows truly how great this team is. King James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are as good of a threesome as there is out there. Boston isn't chopped liver with Rondo, Pierce, Allen and Garnett that's certainly for sure but they are not as talented as the Heat and after blowing that last game to the Lakers should be up against it tonight.

Erik Spoelstra's boys are flying high right now and are the best team in the NBA. Playing in Beantown at the Boston Garden against this experienced Boston team is not going to be easy at all but at this near pick-em price it's still a deal.

The crowd will be rocking for this litmus type test and I think that the C's will compete for the duration. But the bottom line is that Miami is the class of the NBA and the Heat should be able to beat anybody anywhere right now and to get them and pretty much only have to win the game in order to grab the cash is a bit too good to pass up, period.

Tom Freese

Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: Phoenix Suns

Sacramento is 12-38 straight up this year. The Kings are 2-5 ATS their last 7 games when their starting five combined for more than 160 minutes in their last game. The Kings are 2-7-1 ATS their last 10 NBA Pacific games. The Kings are 1-8 ATS their last 9 meetings in Phoenix. The Suns are 26-25 this year. The Suns are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games following a straight up win. The Suns are 12-5-2 ATS their last 19 Sunday games. The Suns are 7-3 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Suns are 17-8-1 ATS their last 26 games as home favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on LA Lakers +1

The Lakers are rolling. They have won 4 in a row SU and ATS, and I expect them to keep rolling Sunday. All this team needed was a little confidence boost, and it got it with Thursday's win over the Celtics. That boost of confidence helped propel LA to a dominant performance against the Knicks Friday. The Lakers are one of the few teams in the NBA with the length to disrupt Dwight Howard. Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom all have the length to disrupt Howard's shot whether they are matched up against him or helping on him off the ball. The Magic are 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games when matched up against a team with a winning record. The Lakers, meanwhile, are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games when matched up against a team with a winning home record. Also, the Lakers have dominated this series from the standpoint or the point spread. They are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Orlando. Plus, the road team is 5-0-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings, and the underdog is 11-1-1 ATS in the last 13 meetings. This is a statement road trip for the two-time defending champs. After defeating the team they took down in last year's NBA Finals, look for them to make another statement by beating the team they defeated in the 2009 NBA Finals. Take the Lakers.

Tom Stryker

Miami @ Boston
PICK: Miami -1.5

In a same-season double revenge mode and with a dismal 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS record in the last 19 meetings against Boston, it's time for Miami to take a stance in this series. The Heat makes the trek to Beantown playing some of their best basketball of the season and they need to let the Celtics know that they can win a game especially on the Garden floor.

Currently on a nifty 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS run, LeBron, Wade and Bosh are in a zone right now. Miami has performed well as road chalk too notching a respectable 25-12 ATS record in its last 37 games. In this role facing a team that enters without momentum off a straight up loss, the Heat improves to a sensational 13-4 ATS!

Off back-to-back straight up losses to Charlotte and the LA Lakers, Boston takes the floor right now looking to keep pace in the Eastern Conference standings. Unfortunately, the Celtics aren't exactly at full strength. The Shamrocks bench will be missing Shaq, Jermaine O'Neal, Delonte West and, possibly, Nate Robinson. Taking on the new-look Heat is a tall order for any NBA team. Doing it without a bench and a number of aging veterans on the floor is just asking for trouble.

This isn't the greatest technical spot for Boston either. Surprisingly, at home checking in on a losing streak off two or more straight up losses, the Celtics are a soft 28-49 ATS Also, as a non-division home dog matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage of .698 or better, the Shamrocks have struggled posting a weak 14-38 ATS mark

With the top spot in the East on the line, the Heat will look to send the Celtics a message on Sunday afternoon. In a double revenge mode and at full strength, James, Wade and Bosh will get it done. Take Miami.

Telly

Providence 9.5

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Detroit Pistons +2

Coming off a 14-point home loss to Miami, this is a phenomenal spot to back the Pistons. That's because Detroit is flawless 8-0 ATS in its last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Pistons have also been a tremendous investment in the small dog role. In fact, they are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. Portland's last 2 road wins over Cleveland an Toronto are hardly impressive. And even with those wins over two of the worst teams in the NBA, the Blazers are still just 11-17 on the road this season. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in this series, and I expect this trend to continue here. Take the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Lakers/Magic UNDER 195

The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams with none of those games exceeding 190 total points scored. The Under is 8-2 in the Magic's last 10 home games and 4-1 in the Lakers' last 5 road games. Going back to the beginning of last season, the Lakers are 18-6 Under as a road underdog. We have only seen an average of 191.2 total points scored in these games. These are 2 of the finest defensive teams in the league. Expect this nationally televised game to have a playoff feel as both teams really get after it on the defensive end today. The result will be a 5th straight Under in the series.