Dave Cokin
Niagara +10.5
First things first, Niagara is not good at all. That means there’s always an element of risk asking the Purple Eagles to do something positive. The team is 6-20 this season and they’re now 21-68 since Chris Casey took over as head coach. So anytime I’m considering this outfit, it’s strictly hold your nose time.
But today, I’m playing against Rider. This is an awful spot for the Broncs. They’re off one of the craziest games I’ve seen all season. Rider put together a stirring second half rally to get what looked like a sweet upset against MAAC frontrunner Monmouth on Friday evening. Rider was up 14 inside the four-minute mark. But they fell apart down the stretch, and I put the blame squarely on the coaching.
This absolutely drives me wild. It’s the college basketball version of the football prevent defense. In this case, it’s prevent offense. Team gets ahead and rather than run the offense that got them ahead, they start milking the clock WAY too soon, end up with horrible percentage shots and allow the other team an opportunity to catch up. When I rant about overcoaching, this is the prime example of what I mean.
In any event, Rider blew the entire lead and then after going back up two, they got burned by a Justin Robinson three and it was game, set and match. Great win for Monmouth when it looked like they were dead, and a truly brutal beat for Rider.
I don’t know how the Broncs get fired up for this game. They’re going from the all-out effort and throughly demoralizing loss against the MAAC leaders to a rematch against a bottom feeder they already handled on the road just nine days ago. It’s always somewhat of a guess to assess what a team’s mindset is going to be, but I just can’t see Rider being razor sharp here. I might not be in love with the idea of taking the downtrodden Purple Eagles, but I feel as though this is a solid play against spot for the Broncs. I’ll take the double digits with Niagara.
Bruce Marshall
Arizona -9
Lots of payback on the table for Arizona after its bitter 4-OT loss at the Galen Center last month. Indeed, some Pac-12 sources believe the Cats might have been slightly overlooking UCLA (imagine!) on Thursday as they were peeking ahead to this revenge battle vs. SC. The Trojans have lost their last four Pac-12 road games outside of the L.A. city limits, while Arizona is 31-16 its last 47 at McKale Center chalk. Big game for Cats' BC transfer F Ryan Anderson (16.9 ppg), who scored a season-low 5 points in the first meeting.
Marc Lawrence
Evansville vs. Loyola-Chicago
Play: Evansville -4½
Edges - Aces: the visiting team is 10-1-1 ATS In this series; and 6-1 SUATS last seven games here. Ramblers: 4-9 ATS at home this season. With the Aces off an embarrassing 10-point home loss as 10-point favorites, we recommend a 1* play on Evansville.
Brandon Shively
Washington St vs. Utah
Play: Utah -15
I’m expecting this game to get ugly...quick...Utah is laying a hefty number, but the Utes are shooting 56.4% from the floor over their last three games, good for No.3 in the nation. So we have a team that we can count on to put up a large amount of points. Playing on their homecourt, Utah is averaging 85.4 ppg this season. The good news is they are playing a Washington State team that has been horrendous on the road this season. I don’t see any motivation for them after going into double overtime only to lose to Colorado. They shot 50% from the floor which was their best shooting game in the last ten games. My point is chances are they will not shoot nearly as good today. Washington State is 0-5 SU on the road in PAC 12 play. Four of those losses have been by 11 points or more, three of them by 20 points or more. The biggest spread for them this season was when they were a 18 point road dog at Arizona and they lost by 24 points. My point being here is they aren’t capable of putting up a fight when inserted as a big underdog.
Utah beat Washington State by 21 points last month on the road. Now playing at home, I can only see this score being somewhat of the same if not worse. The last two home meetings in this series, Utah has won by 18 and 22 points, covering both spreads. With two road games on deck for Utah, I expect a solid effort from them at home here as they have scored 90 and 96 points their last two home games.
Tony Stoffo
Syracuse vs. Boston College
Play: Syracuse -11½
Michael Gbinije is Syracuse’s leading scorer with 17 points, 4.4 assists per game. Syracuse is allowing 64.5 points per game, good enough to be tied for 26th in the nation in scoring defense. Syracuse is holding their opponents to just 40.4% from the floor this season. Syracuse is 4-1 ATS in their last five after an ATS win, 31-8 ATS in their last 39 on the road after at least three straight at home and 6-2 ATS in the Orange's last eight overall.
The Eagles are shooting only 40.9 percent from the floor as a team while averaging 64.7 points per game and as a result are 0-11 in ACC play . Boston College is 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. ACC, 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 after a straight up loss and 1-4 ATS in the Eagles' last five after an ATS win.
Jim Feist
West / East Over 317½
Last year the West won 163-158. The East has plenty of offensive talent in LeBron James and Dwyane Wade, but is short of big, defensive players. West coach Gregg Popovich gets to unleash Kobe Bryant, in his last All-Star game and he is surrounded by so much young offensive talent and depth with Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Klay Thompson, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins.
Bob Harvey
St Louis vs. Tampa Bay
Play: Tampa Bay -131
The St. Louis Blues go for a sweep in the Sunshine State when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning. St. Louis has won the last four meetings, including a 6-3 triumph at Tampa Bay last season and a 2-0 victory at home on October 2.
The Blues (31-17-5, 23-34 PL)had managed just 10 goals in its previous seven contests but recorded a 5-3 victory Friday over the Atlantic Division-leading Florida Panthers. It was the Blues third win since the All-Star break thanks to the play of Vladimir Tarasenko who scored for the second time in three games Friday to push his team-leading totals to 27 goals and 49 points.
The Lightning (31-17-5, 20-34 PL)have won 11 of their last 14 contests - and nine straight at home. Steven Stamkos rescued Tampa Bay with a final-minute power-play goal en route to a 4-3 overtime win over Nashville on Friday that snapped a two-game slide. Stamkos, who scored for only the second time in 11 games, is tied with Nikita Kucherov for the team lead in goals with 22 but trails the Russian (47) by five points for first on the club.
The home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings. St. Louis is 4-0 in the past four meetings and 4-0 in its past four outings vs. the Western Conference.
Tampa Bay is 4-0 in its last four against the Central Division and 6-0 past six vs. the Western Conference.
The OVER is 4-0 in Tampa Bay’s last four games and 5-1 in the last series meetings.
Rob Vinciletti
Miami Florida vs. Florida St
Play: Miami Florida
The Hurricanes are 7-1 vs teams ranked in top 50 RPI and Florida St is just 2-6 in these games. Miami is 5-1 as a road favorite and already beat the Seminoles by 13 this year. The Canes are 7-0 vs teams who score 77 or more per game and 4-0 ats when the total is 150 to 160. Florida St is 0-3 vs teams who average 77 or more per game and 1-4 after allowing 80 or more in their last game. Look for Miami to win this one.
Dave Essler
Canisius +2
Matchup and semi-revenge issue here, IMO. I say "semi" because it's road revenge which isn't quite as high on the list - but Canisius was hammered at home. The matchup issue is that although St. Peters' has the "overall" better defense, it's mainly interior, which is not where Canisius likes to do their damage.They'll shoot three's and DO get to the line a fair bit. The one thing Canisius does do is create turnovers, and St. Peters hasn't been the Fort Knox of protecting the ball. The Griff's defense isn't great,but neither is the Peacocks offense. Fading the home team with the precedent of losing to Cornell and RIder (badly) at home - betting on the road team that's won four Conference road games and had an extra days'rest. We'll see what happens. I do know the line we bet isn't widely available anymore, although Bookmaker actually has +3 - but I think the Griff's win the game.
Will Rogers
Avalanche vs. Sabres
Play: Over 5
The Buffalo Sabres managed to put an end to a four-game slide as they defeated the Habs 6-4 Friday. I think they'll struggle to make it back-to-back wins tonight though as they host a Colorado Avalanche team looking to complete three-game trip with a perfect record.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Situational - The Avs defeated the Sens 4-3 at Ottawa Thursday before claiming a 3-2 shootout victory at Detroit the next day. This might look like a rough spot at first glance, but the Avs are 5-0 in their last five in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and they've won five of their last six on the road. The over is 3-0-1 in Avalanche last 4 road games.
2. Home Woes - The Sabres have won just two of their last 11 home at First Niagara Center and they've dropped five straight when playing host to Colorado. These teams have gone over in four straight at Buffalo.
3. X-Factor - These teams have gone over in seven of the last eight meetings.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Iowa
Pick: Iowa
The Hawkeyes should be in quite the surly mood Sunday evening given that they're off a rare loss, one that saw them fall into an early hole that was too deep to climb out of in Indiana. Fortunately, it's a much lesser opponent tonight, that being Minnesota, a team who has yet to win a single Big 10 contest. Lay the points.
Perhaps you may recall that I went against Iowa in their loss Thursday. They were actually a slight dog in that one, but then again, it was a road game and all five of the team's losses have come away from home. However, here in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes are a perfect 12-0 straight up, winning by an average margin of 18 PPG. This will actually be one of the lesser opponents they've welcomed into Carver-Hawkeye all season.
Off its only other Big 10 loss this season, Iowa came back the next game and beat Northwestern by double digits. The spread is high here, as it should be considering how poor Minnesota has been this season. The Gophers lost their last road game, by 24 points, and are off a home loss to Michigan earlier in the week. They are 2-6 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in the previous game.
Allen Eastman
Michigan State (-7) over Indiana
There will be no love lost between these two teams on Valentine's Day! Michigan State has been back playing at its elite level since getting Denzel Valentine back healthy and I think that they are going to tear apart Indiana here in Michigan. Sparty has won its last four games by an average of 23 points per game! That includes big wins over Michigan and Maryland. Indiana went on an excellent 12-game winning streak in December and January. But they are just 2-2 in their last four games and have that bad loss at Penn State over last weekend. The Hoosiers host Iowa on Thursday in Bloomington and I think that win or lose they are going to have a letdown on Sunday. Michigan State won this matchup at home by 20 points last year and they have really had the upper hand against the Hoosiers during the Tom Izzo era. This looks like another big blowout winner.
Larry Ness
Southern California vs. Arizona
Pick: Arizona
USC climbed back into the AP top-25 last Monday at No. 23. The Trojans are one of the top turnaround stories in college basketball this year. Third-year head coach Andy Enfield guided Florida Gulf Coast's "Dunk City" squad to a surprising Sweet Sixteen run in 2013 before leaving for USC a few weeks later and said prior to USC’s two-game trip to the state of Arizona that he wants to see how his team handles success after entering the top-25 rankings for the second time in just seven years. The first time was last month before the Trojans went on the road and were swept by Oregon and Oregon State. "Now we're ranked again and we're on the road again, so we will see if we have learned anything from last time," Enfield told reporters. "You can easily lose on the road in this conference whether you're ranked or not, whether you're overconfident or not, because the road is so hard in this league."
The Trojans have SIX players averaging in double digits and while USC shot 51.9 percent Friday night in Tempe vs Arizona St, the Trojans set season lows in three-pointers made (two) and attempted (11), I losing 74-67. That point total was well below the team’s seasonal average of 83.3 PPG (ranks 14th in the nation). The 6-11 Jovanovic had 25 points and 15 rebounds in the loss and leads the team in scoring (12.8) and rebounding (7.4). He starts up front with 6-10 freshman Boatright (11.5-5.3), who fouled out in 14 scoreless minutes at ASU. 6-11 freshman Metu (7.0-3.6) and the 6-7 Clark (2.8-4.8) add frontcourt depth.
Four backcourt players average in double digits, McLaughlin (12.6-3.6-5.1), Jacobs (12.3-5.2-5.7) and Reinhardt (12.3-3-1) plus sixth-man Stewart (10.6-4.0). Stewart had an ‘ugly’ game against the Sun Devils, making ONE of seven shots for two points, missing all FOUR from beyond the arc. "We just didn't play well," coach Andy Enfield said. "We played hard at times. We just didn't play well enough. A 31-game schedule, you are going to have bumps in the road." USC now tries to avoid another 0-2 road trip, just like the least time the team popped into the top-25, earlier this year.
This visit to Tucson presents MANY problems. The 17th-ranked Wildcats (20-5 / 8-4 in the Pac 12) are out to avenge last month's quadruple-overtime loss to the Trojans. USC (18-6, 7-4 Pac-12) served notice that it is a contender for the conference crown by outlasting Arizona 103-101 at home Jan 9, a contest which remains the nation's only game this season to go four overtimes and the only one in Wildcats history. Arizona isn't saying whether it has bitter memories of losing to Southern California. "I can't tell you how talented USC is," Arizona coach Sean Miller said. "When we played them the first time in L.A., it felt like a video game. It felt like the first 20 minutes we could not stop them."
Arizona comes in averaging 81.2 PPG (22nd), despite losing FOUR starters from last year, including 6-7 swingman Stanley Johnson (13.8-6.5) plus a pair of excellent forwards in Ashley (12.2-5.2) and Hollis-Jefferson (11.2-6.8). However, the 6-9 Anderson (a transfer from BC) became eligible this season and he leads the team in scoring (16.0) and rebounding (10.5). The 6-9 Tollefsen is a senior transfer from San Francisco (14.0 PPG last season) and he’s chipped in 8.1 & 3.4. That duo joins the the 7-0 Tarczewski (9.9-8.6) and the 7-0 Ristic (8.0-4.2), so don’t feel too sorry for the Wildcats up front. Senior guard York (14.7-3.4), freshman guard Trier (14.5) plus returning PGs Allen (8.3-3.1-3.8) and Jackson-Cartwright (5.5-3.6 APG) man the backcourt.
The McKale Center is one tough venue and just like USC went to Tempe and lost for the EIGHTH time in its last nine trips on Friday, the Trojans visit Tucson having lost SIX straight times to the wildcats in the McKale Center. lay it.
3G-Sports
Miami Florida vs. Florida State
Play: Miami Florida +1.5
Miami has not struggled with getting the game pace in their direction, like many of Florida State's previous opponents have. G Angel Rodriguez is going to find his shooters on the wing, and they will do what they always do. When the Hurricanes start getting the game moving fast, Florida St. can get slowed down by the speed of the guards. Sheldon McClellan and Ja'Quan Newton are a lot to handle. Seminoles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record Miami-Florida wins giving the points
Tony George
Indiana vs. Michigan St
Play: Indiana +7
This line surprised me, and although winning on the road in conference action is difficult for anyone this time of year, this is a battle of 2 very good teams and the only thing missing for Indiana's "Do List" this season is a win over a ranked opponent on the road. Much like KU/OU yesterday, this is a battle between ranked teams where th spread is too high.
Bear in mind that Indiana just knocked off #4 Iowa which may mean in the books mind this is a let down spot for the Hoosiers. Sparty is off an OT loss to Purdue and although they swept Indiana last year, that plays into a double revenge scenario for IU and with the Hoosiers ability to score on offense, I like their chances of keeping this a nail biter to the buzzer.