Ray Monohan
Miami (Fla) vs. Florida State
Play: Florida State -1
The Seminoles look for a bit of revenge in this spot when they welcome in the #12 Miami Hurricanes into FSU on Sunday night. Miami shut down Florida State when these two teams met in Miami, but now the series shifts to Tallahassee, where Florida State is much better. They come in 8-2 at home and have a win over #7 Virginia to their credit. Look for Florida State to use Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon, the dynamic freshman duo, to get this team energized. Expect FSU to add another tournament resume worthy win here as they take down #12 on Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +100 over Colorado
The Avalanche have been road warriors this season by sporting a better record away from home than at home. They've also been on a bit of a roll lately by winning five of their last six away from the Pepsi Center. The Avs beat some pretty stiff competition along the way with wins in Dallas, L.A. and Detroit. However, in those three victories, Colorado was outshot by an incredible 126-55. Against Detroit on Friday night, Colorado looked like they were killing a 60-minute Detroit power-play, as they were under siege the entire game. Prior to beating Ottawa and Detroit, Colorado had dropped five of its past six games including four in a row. Analytically, Colorado is a disaster and while analytics does not count in the win/loss department, it reveals a team that has been on the radical side of good fortune. There are five basic ways that luck can influence a team's position in the standings: injuries, shooting and save percentages (which is called PDO when added together), their power play and penalty killing percentages, their record in one-goal games (regulation time only), and their record in overtime and shoot-out games. In that regard, Colorado is a deflection a game away from being about 20 games under .500. No team gives up more shots and no team spends more time in their own end than the Avalanche. In other words, who the f**k are the Avs to be favored on the road?
It's easy to look at the standings and write off this season in Buffalo as another loss. They've been all but eliminated from playoff contention and are still considered by many to be the laughing stock of the league. What we see is a team that is extremely undervalued almost every single night. You always take a risk when backing this club but they are often priced in a range that does not reflect their effort and the quality coaching they get from Dan Bylsma. The market pays very little attention to Buffalo because when you eliminate loser points and just call things wins and losses, they went 44-120 overall – including 17-65 on the road in the two seasons prior to this year. 104 of those losses occurred in regulation but this year’s edition is not that team.
Buffalo is coming off a 6-4 victory over the Canadiens. Prior to that, they lost to Philly, 5-1 but outshot the Flyers, 42-28. In its 7-4 loss to the Panthers on Tuesday, the shots on net were 35-34, which reveals that Robin Lehner had a worse night than Roberto Luongo. Prior to those two games, Buffalo lost back-to-back games to Boston but both those games went into OT. Prior to that, Buffalo had won two straight. We could just as easily be discussing a Sabres team on a seven-game winning streak here. Buffalo is not a playoff team yet but the possibilities are there that give them a great shot next season. The Sabres have had lapses but for the most part they have been very competitive all season long. The Sabres bench boss hates losing and that attitude seems to be growing on these players. This game goes at 12:30 EST and that could benefit Buffalo. Afternoon games are always their own beast and they mess with the player's routine. The puck drops at 10:30 AM Denver time and the Avs are playing their third game in four nights on this Eastern trip. It's very rare they have to play in one of these early Sunday games and even if Colorado plays well, which is unlikely, they still may lose this one. Wrong side favored.
St. Louis +127 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. Jaden Schwartz returned to the Blues lineup on Friday against the Panthers and St. Louis scored five times in a 5-3 victory. Schwartz was reunited on the Blues top line and at the very worst, he injected some much-needed energy into the lineup. We’ve been fading the Blues quite a bit this season and it’s been warranted but this is still a team that is usually in games right to the end. When a team that struggles to score goals goes off for five, it takes a weight off their collective shoulders and often leads to more outbursts. Furthermore, Biran Elliott has been outstanding since Jake Allen was lost to an injury. The Blues absolutely can win here but this one is more of a fade against Tampa than it is about backing the Blue Notes.
The Lighting are on the Wild Card bubble right now. They lead the Wild-Card race but they have at least three teams knocking on the door. They need wins badly but something isn’t right with this team and hasn’t been all year. Perhaps it’s the anticipation of their Captain bailing after this season. That appears to be inevitable now. Whatever it is, we do not like what we’re seeing. The Bolts are coming off a 4-3 OT win over the Preds on Friday but credit Pekka Rinne for Tampa’s win, as Rinne allowed four goals on 28 shots for a save percentage of .857. Prior to that, Tampa allowed nine goals against combined in back-to-back losses to Montreal and Ottawa. A study of each NHL team's set of records from 2007 until the present found that a team's winning percentage in games decided by two goals or more was far more useful in predicting its future than a team's record in one-goal games. In two goal games, the Bolts are 4-9 for a winning percentage of .308. Only the Maple Leafs are worse. The Bolts have allowed three goals or more in four straight. They have allowed four goals or more in four of their past eight games. Ben Bishop is our next Pekka Rinne. We’ve never really liked him much and still do not. He covers the entire net because he’s a giant but he’s slow and good shooters bury pucks on him. The Bolts are leaking badly and things appear to be getting worse instead of better.
Philadelphia +155 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included.The Rangers are in second place in the Metropolitan Division and third place in the Eastern Conference. They enter the contest with a five-game point streak. New York has won five of its last seven games (5-1-1) and seven of its last 10 games (7-2-1). The Rangers have earned at least one point in 14 of their last 20 games so we can understand why the market is behind them. The Rangers also have a score to settle here with Flyers forward Wayne Simmonds, who suckered punch Captain Ryan McDonagh on February 6 and knocked him out of action. However, if the Rangers are set on revenge and this game becomes chippy/physical, they'll be playing right into the Flyers hands. When a team is focused on settling a score, it takes away from their game so we’re hoping that is the Rangers focus here. What we know for sure is that the Flyers are dangerous as hell in this price range and that they have played the Rangers nose-to-nose this season.
Tonight's game is the fifth of five meetings between the Rangers and Flyers, and the second of two meetings between the two teams at MSG. The Rangers have posted a 2-1-1 record (0-1-0 at home; 2-0-1 on the road) against Philadelphia. Three of the first four contests between New York and Philadelphia have been decided in a shootout. Do you really want to lay big lumber with the Rangers under those conditions? We think not. The Flyers have outscored their opponents 16-9 in the third period over the past 14 games and have at least one third period goal in all 14 of those games. The Flyers have scored the game’s first goal in 13 of their last 17 games, which is huge because teams that score first have a high win expectation. If we’re sticking to playing games based on value alone, Philadelphia is a must play in this price range.
DETROIT -½ +114 over Boston
Regulation only. We played against the Bruins yesterday in Minnesota and given the opportunity, we would make that same bet again. You see, Boston was outshot yesterday in Minnesota, 33-19 but scored four goals on Darcy Kuemper. On Thursday, the B’s scored three times on their first 11 shots in an eventual 6-3 win over Winnipeg. On Tuesday, Boston allowed Los Angeles to fire away 57 shots on goal and the game before that, Boston gave up 38 shots on net to the Sabres. Boston will travel for the third time in four days after playing in a different time zone yesterday afternoon. They have scored 10 goals over their past two games with seven of those goals occurring on 30 shots on net. They will not have that same luck here against Petr Mrazek, who is perhaps the best goaltender in the game. The Bruins are giving up a ton of scoring chances lately and if Bergeron misses this game like he is projected to, those scoring chances for the opposition will increase even more. Boston’s luck over the past two games has run its course.
Detroit was on the other end of that spectrum on Friday when they dominated Colorado (they held a 74% to 14% edge in time spent in the offensive zone) in a 3-2 OT loss. Prior to that, Detroit won three in a row while outscoring the opposition, 11-2. Detroit has held its last three opponents to 23, 23 and 21 shots on goal and has held of its last opponents to 23 shots on net or fewer. The Red Wings are rested and playing well. Their speedy and talented offense figure to get a plethora of scoring chances here and they also figure to dominate the time spent in the offensive end as well, as the B’s will be running on fumes. At the end of the day, Detroit will very likely dominate this game and if we get bit by the Bruins good fortune, so be it. This could very well be the best bet on today’s board and we are absolutely not going to miss it.
SPS Investors
Miami-Florida vs. Florida St.
Pick: Florida St.
At this point in the season, as teams make a push towards the upcoming tournaments, motivation plays a big part in the handicapping process and we believe that will play a factor in this contest tonight. The Miami Hurricanes have all but cemented their status as a potential #3 seed the upcoming NCAA tournament and there isn't much room or them to move up or down. The same cannot be said for their opponents in this contest. The Florida State Seminoles are still lingering somewhat on the proverbial bubble and still needs to compile those resume building wins to ensure their chance to punch their tickets to the Big Dance. A win over their in state rivals will surely do that.
Florida State had their 4 game winning streak snapped as they fell to the Syracuse Orange on the road in their last contest. They will no doubt be looking to have a bounce back performance in this contest and have a great chance to do so now that they are back at home at the Tucker Center. Florida State is an impressive 8-2 at home this season and has all of the tools and playmakers needed to put points on the board. Offensively, Florida State is averaging 78.7 ppgpoints per game on 46.2% shooting from the field and 33.9% shooting form beyond the arc. They are scoring the ball at a rate of 110.6 points per 100 possessions which ranks 53rd in the country.
Miami is certainly not a team that many can look past as they have proven that they are one of the best in the ACC, however we believe that they are in for a bit of a letdown in this contest. They narrowly escaped with a victory over Pittsburgh on their home court as they scored the game winning basket with just over 1 second remaining on the clock. We don't believe they will be as fortunate in this contest. Miami has struggled on the road this season going just 2-3 on the highway in conference play. Their offensive production also takes a hit as they are averaging just 66 points per game on the road. We don't believe that will be enough in this contest. Florida State has an extremely potent offense and a defense that has shown their ability to create turnovers. We expect them to frustrate the Hurricane players in this contest and come away with a big win over their rivals.
Jim Feist
Arizona State -2.5
UCLA is struggling, 2-5 on the road. Arizona State is home and flying high, after knocking off USC, 74-67. The Sun Devils played a stout brand of defense, limiting the Trojans who entered the game statistically as the second-best three-point shooting team in the conference (.388) to just 18.2 percent (2-11) from downtown. Capitalizing on 17 USC Trojan turnovers, Arizona State would notch 20 points on takeaways. With the victory over ranked USC, the Sun Devils now have two top-25 wins to their credit, having defeated No. 15 Texas A&M, 67-64 Dec. 5. The team is 10-2-1 ATS and the Bruins are 1-4-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Arizona State.
OC Dooley
Evansville / Loyola Chicago Over 132
In the entire Missouri Valley Conference there are only TWO players have who have recorded more than one “double double” (points and rebounds) this season and both are involved in this late afternoon ESNU tilt thus getting rare national visibility. Evansville big man Egidijus Mockevicius is actually tied for for most “double doubles” (21) in the entire nation. Meanwhile Loyola big man Montel James has produced 4 different “double doubles” in league play. Since the Ramblers midweek won a defensive oriented gem (54-43 triumph) today’s total has dropped from the opening figure of 133 points and I am taking advantage. The Loyola RESERVES have averaged near 40 points per game in the last “eight” contest while Evansville currently has 3 red hot starters including SENIOR guard D.J. Ballentine who has put up 15 points per pop in the past four outings. Evansville has another backcourt standout as Adam Wing ranks #2 in conference field goal percentage (54.9) and has been even better from behind the arc (58 percent). The last four times Evansville has faced Loyola in this “series” they have nailed a hefty 55-PERCENT of their shots from the field including a 57% effort earlier this campaign. Here is an UNDEFEATED season long angle as when up against quality defensive opposition (permitting a shooting percentage of less than 43 on average) Loyola-Chicago has gone an eye opening 7-0 OVER the total