Charlie Scott
UCLA vs. USC
Play: Over 116.5
This is the complete opposite of the Providence/Villanova Under 174.5 Winner I gave out yesterday. I feel that these 2 teams aren't that great defensively or play at such a slow pace that it could go Over by accident at this price. Both teams have had off since last Saturday giving them time to rest and game plan. The first meeting of the year between these 2 teams was a USC win 67-46=113. However, now since these teams have matched up against one another players should know how to attack and who they can beat off the dribble since they already played. Not a great Year for either team, but both teams recruit talented players,
Larry Ness
Boston College @ Florida State
PICK: Florida State -8.5
Toney Douglas (21.5) was the lone Seminole to average more than 8.4 PPG last season and he almost single-handedly led FSU to 25 wins and an NCAA bid after three straight years of "knocking on the door." This year's FSU team is led by two sophomores, the 7-1 Alabi (12.7-7.0) and the 6-9 Singleton (10.6-7.4), plus a solid group of role players. As always, Hamilton's teams play "D" and this squad is no different, allowing 61.8 PPG while holding opponents to 37.0 percent from the floor (3rd-best in the nation). Al Skinner has led BC to seven NCAA appearances in the last nine seasons but the Eagles are just 12-12 this year, including a woeful 3-7 in the ACC. BC features four double-digit scorers in the 6-8 Trapani (14.4-6.5), guard Jackson (13.7-5.7-4.0), forward Raji (11.8-6.6) and swingman Sanders (10.9-3.1) but a .500 record is not what this team expected this year. FSU won 61-57 up in Chestnut Hill on Jan 30 and while the Seminoles have had trouble covering spreads this season, I want no part of the slumping Eagles in this one, as FSU (17-7 / 5-5 in the ACC) has an at-large bid in its sights and knows it has little margin for error with so many recent "close-calls" with the NCAA selection committee. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
Georgetown vs. Rutgers
Play: Rutgers+10½
Lot of points for Rutgers to be catching here today when they have won three out of their last four games and covered their last three against the spread. They beat Notre Dame and St. John's at home to stop the bleeding, but that isn't really that much of a surprise when you look at how this team has played at home. The Scarlet Knights are 11-4 on their home floor.
Georgetown is a good team, who has done a good job winning on the road, but with a home contest against Syracuse on deck added to the fact the Hoyas beat Rutgers by 25 at home a few weeks ago means I can't see them getting too excited to play this game.
JIM FEIST
MIAMI OHIO / BOWLING GREEN
TAKE: MIAMI OHIO
Miami Ohio looks to stretch its winning streak to six straight today against Bowling Green. The Redhawks failed to cover last time out against Toledo, however, they are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. During their winning streak they haven't allowed more than 54 points but one time. And, don't let the hawks 11-13 S/U record scare you. Miami played one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country and went 3-10. Bowling Green is 12-11 SU overall (5-6 in MAC play) and 9-12 ATS. Scott Thomas leads the Falcons in scoring with a 12.5 ppg average. The Redhawks won't be dominated in the paint either, as this club has blocked 48 shots in the last 10 games (nine different players with blocks) including eight against Kent State on Jan 12. Miami not getting much respect here as the oddsmakers installed the game at pick'em. Miami is the better team, playing better ball and has the tough non-conference seasoning on the road to win these types of games. Miami won the first meeting between these schools this season in Oxford, 64-52 and has now won four straight against the Falcons. Miami has had success during it's history playing at Bowling Green, as the birds hold a 31-26 edge. Bowling Green is 2-6 ATS at home, 1-4 ATS at home in conference play. Take Miami here on Sunday.
SPORTS WAGERS
NORTHWESTERN –1.05 over Minnesota
These two are pretty much even in terms of their respective records but the Golden Gophers offer up very little on the road. In fact, the Gophers are 2-5 on the road with the two wins coming against Big-10 bottom feeders, Penn St. and Iowa. The Gophers hosted these Wildcats back in Minnesota about three weeks ago and beat them by four points. Now the venue switches in the Wildcats favor, where Northwestern is a stellar 12-3 at home and that includes a win over #6 Purdue among others. Northwestern has now reeled off four in a row at home. Minnesota hangs around most games because of its strong defense but they’re also very vulnerable to defeat because of its poor shooting and its inability to rally from a large deficit. They’ve shown absolutely jack on the road and that’s unlikely to change here, as Northwestern is always a tough place to pick up a road victory. This is a very beatable line. Play: Northwestern –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units).
Nashville +1.70 over PITTSBURGH
Huge value on the Preds here, as they really have a great chance of picking up a win heading into the break. Of all the teams in the NHL, one would have to figure that the defending champs would be looking forward to not only the break but to the Olympics most. The Pens already won the Stanley Cup and the challenge now for a whole slew of players from the Penguins is perhaps their greatest and most exciting challenge to date. Furthermore, the Penguins aren’t even playing that good. In fact, they’re just 5-5 in its past 10 games and they’ve also lost three of its last four. The only team they beat over its last four was the Islanders and they were tooth and nails to do that. They went into Montreal and lost 5-3 to a Habs squad that had about half the team on the rack. So, yeah, this team needs a break more than anyone or at least they’re playing like they do and it sure doesn’t hurt that Fleury has been very shaky all year and Johnson is not far behind. As for the Preds, well, they play extremely hard every shift of every game and they’re in every game they play. They have an outstanding defense, a great goaltending duo and to beat them you must outwork them and frankly, the Pens are unlikely to show an interest in outworking them, in this last game before a herd of them head off to Vancouver. Play: Nashville +1.70 (Risking 2 units).
OLYMPICS –To win Gold
Russia +2.75
With all due respect to the Canadians, Swedes, Americans, et all, the Russians offer up some huge value and have as good a chance as the Canadians and probably better. For starters, Canada’s selection committee made some questionable choices and left out far too many quality players. They went with some aging vets that are good (I suppose they felt obligated) but are not the best the Canadians have to offer. Chris Pronger and Scott Niedemeyer on defense? Are you kidding me? These two guys are too slow and too old and they’re going to cost the Canadians some goals when Ovechkin, Malkin, Semin, Kovalchuk or somebody else skates circles around them. Any two of Jay Boumeester, Mike Green or Dion Phaneuf would serve better than Pronger or Niedemeyer. Luongo has been average in net and Brodeur could be a complete disaster. He’s been awful the past few games and way below average all season long. This guy has a ton of miles on him and he’s way past his prime. Other questionable choices include Iginla, Mike Richards, Brendan Morrow and Patrick Marleau over guys like LeCavalier, Stamkos, Dustin Penner, Shane Doan and Mike Fisher. Anybody can question these decisions after the games but I’ll do that before the games because it says here the Canadians may not even achieve silver based on some awful choices. Some may question the Russian goaltenders but Ilya Bryzgalov and Nabokov have been brilliant all year and Bryzgalov has a tremendous record in International play. Up front the Russians are loaded and behind the blue-line they have Sergei Gonchar (Pittsburgh), Denis Grebeshkov (Edmonton), Dmitri Kalinin (Salavat Ufa), Konstantin Korneyev (CSKA Moscow), Andrei Markov (Montreal), Ilya Nikulin (Ak Bars Kazan), Fedor Tyutin (Columbus) and Anton Vonchenkov (Ottawa). Sorry Canada, but the Russians are the best team in this tournament and they’re even better when they think they can win it all. If they do make it to the final, which is highly probable, you’ll likely be able to hedge this wager. Play: Russia +2.75 to win Gold (Risking 4 units).
Matt Fargo
Miami (Ohio) at Bowling Green
Prediction: Miami (Ohio)
Home and road records play a big part in college basketball as some teams are simply dominant on their home floor with others are horrible when travelling. Looking at these two teams shows opposing road and home records but they do not quite fit into the scenario mentioned above and that will be explained further down. I do not have problems taking a road team that is much better without the need to put down a lot of points and in this case, putting down nothing as this line is even across the board as of Sunday morning. Miami enters this game at 8-3 so a win will let it keep pace with Kent St. in the MAC East after the Golden Flashes had their eight-game winning streak halted yesterday. A victory will also push it a half-game ahead of Akron who is next up on the schedule on Wednesday. The Falcons have now lost three of their last four games and are 12-11 overall and 5-6 in the MAC. The last loss was most frustrating as Western Michigan never led until the final five seconds of the game when it scored the winning basket. Bowling Green is in last place in the MAC East and at 5-6, it can be argued that isn?t too bad as the East is much stronger than the West. The problem is the Falcons went 3-3 against the West while Miami went 5-1. Miami may be 2-10 on the road this season but this needs to be broken down a little bit. The RedHawks started the season 0-10 away from home so they currently are riding a two-game winning streak on the road which is always big for confidence reasons. One of MAC road losses came in overtime while some non-conference road losses included Kentucky by two points, Cincinnati by four points, Xavier by three points and Colorado by two points. Basically, Miami hung tough by losing by only 2.75 ppg in some hostile environments against four teams that are a combined 50-5 at home. I?d call that road tested. Now the RedHawks travel to Bowling Green who is 7-3 at home but besides a win over St. Louis, and even that is stretching it, there are no quality home wins on the schedule. The Falcons are 3-2 at home in the MAC but all three came against teams with losing records in the conference including 0-11 Toledo and 4-8 Northern Illinois, the two teams with the most defeats in conference action. In comparison, while Miami lost by only three points at Xavier, the Falcons lost by 44 points at Xavier and while I normally do not compare common opponents, that is simply too big not to take note of. Miami is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 55 points or fewer in its last game and it is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games in the second half of the season against teams averaging 64 ppg or fewer. 3* Miami Ohio RedHawks
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Northwestern +1
Off a poor performance at Iowa, and further motivated by an earlier season loss at Minnesota, look for Northwestern to get the job done at home here. Minnesota has really struggled away from home this season, going just 3-7 SU & 2-8 ATS. It has also struggled against the number in Big Ten play with just a 2-9 ATS record. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a 12-3 SU at home and 7-4 ATS in home lined games. The Gophers are also 8-4 ATS in Big Ten play. The Golden Gophers enter having lost 7 in a row ATS and 5 straight as a favorite. Take Northwestern for 1 Unit.
Info Plays
3* on Ohio State -1.5
Reasons why Ohio State covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - Road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (OHIO ST) - excellent ball handling team - committing <=12 turnovers/game, after a game committing 8 or less turnovers. This is a 105-56 ATS System hitting 65.2% since 1997. This System is 13-8 this season.
2.) There's no question Ohio State is the better team in this this match-up at 19-6 this season. The Buckeyes have won 5 straight games, all by 8 points or more. They are hitting stride as we near tournament time, and they'll take another step forward today against Illinois. The Fighting Illini are 2-10 ATS as a home underdog of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. Bet Ohio State on the road.
Jeff Benton
For Sunday’s free play in college basketball, I’ll grab the points with St. John’s at Notre Dame.
Notre Dame kissed its NCAA Tournament hopes goodbye with Thursday’s 90-87 loss at Seton Hall, not only because that defeat dropped the Irish to 17-8 overall and 6-6 in the Big East, but because they lost their best player (sharpshooter and rebounding beast Luke Harangody) to a knee injury that will sideline the senior forward indefinitely. Good luck replacing those 24 points and 10 rebounds per game.
That double-whammy of losing at Seton Hall and losing Harangody will undoubtedly be lingering tonight when Notre Dame entertains St. John’s, which should enter this contest with a lot of confidence. That’s because the Red Storm are coming off easily their best performance of the season, a 74-55 beat-down of Louisville as a 5½-point underdog Thursday.
That victory snapped St. John’s five-game SU and ATS losing skid. It also was the third time in the last five games that the Red Storm topped 70 points (after being held to 68 or less in their first six conference games). The offensive uptick is a big deal for St. John’s, because Notre Dame does not play defense (the Irish give up 72 ppg overall and they’ve surrendered 77.4 ppg in their last seven contests).
Notre Dame has cashed just twice in its last seven games, going 1-3 ATS as a favorite – and that was with Harangody. The Irish are also just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with the Red Storm. Yes, that one cover came in Notre Dame’s 22-point home win last year, but guess who had 31 points and 12 rebounds in that win? Yep, Harangody. Take the points.
8♦ ST. JOHN'S
Stephen Nover
Taking a look at the MAAC contest between Niagara and Marist today.
Expect a huge letdown from Niagara following the Purple Eagles' huge 87-74 home win this past Friday night against Siena.
That loss halted the Saints' 15-game winning streak, which was the longest streak in the nation.
It's going to be hard for Niagara to get up for lowly Marist.
Yes Marist is terrible. But the Red Foxes were leading the MAAC in three-point percentage and were second in the league in 3-pointers per game, which can keep them safely in pointspread range.
Marist has covered in four of its last five road games when facing a team with a winning home mark.
2♦ MARIST
Scott Delaney
St. John's at Notre Dame
Home town choice, as I like the Catholics from South Bend over the ones from Queens in this one.
This is a cheap number tonight with Notre Dame, which probably needs to go at least 3-3 down the home stretch to have a chance for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.
And it's games like this the Irish most certainly cannot afford to lose.
I know that Irish star Luke Harangody is out with a bone bruise to his right knee, but there is enough talent on this 17-8 team to outwork and outclass the 13-10 Red Storm.
St. John's, which is in off a surprising home thrashing of Louisville, has still lost five of its last six and is 1-6 on the road. The Storm will suffer the letdown loss today, as Notre Dame is much more talented.
St. John's is mired in ATS slides of 6-15 on the road and 1-5 overall, while the chalk is 4-1 the last five times these two have met.
Lay the points here.
1♦ NOTRE DAME
Karl Garrett
DePaul at SETON HALL (-14)
It is an overall 22-19 comp play run from the G-Man my last 41 selections.
For Sunday, I figure there has to be a reason the Pirates are laying this kind of number to the Blue Demons, so I am going to go ahead, and lay it.
Seton Hall just took care of Notre Dame, and while they didn't cover, they were in front pretty much all the way. I like that they are at home once again and facing a conference foe that has gone just 2-10 straight up on the road this season.
DePaul has won just once in their last 12 games, but they have been able to cover a whopping 6 in a row with the points. I have to believe the linemakers know this fact, and are baiting you into backing the Demons in this spot.
Don't do it!
Seton Hall has won 3 of the last 4 series showdowns, with the last meeting showing a 72-49 Pirates drub-job last February.
Go ahead and lay the double-digits, as the Hall steps up big on Sunday.
5♦ SETON HALL
Chuck O'Brien
Louisville at SYRACUSE (-8)
Take Syracuse and lay the points against Louisville in Big East hoops action Sunday as I look to improve on a 7-3 run with comp plays.
Can’t trust the Cardinals right now, not after that putrid performance at St. John’s on Thursday when Louisville went in as a 5½-point favorite and left with a 19-point loss. In retrospect, it was a result we should’ve seen coming, as news broke earlier in the day that coach Rick Pitino was putting out feelers about the New Jersey Nets job. Think about it: Your 18, 19, 20 years old and a report hits that your coach is interested in returning to the NBA to coach a team that has four wins this year! Doesn’t exactly make you feel confident that your coach believes in you, right?
With the setback at St. John’s, the Cardinals have now dropped five of their last eight games and they’re 2-7 ATS in their last nine. Their conference record is now a mediocre 6-5 and 4-7 ATS. And since knocking off Providence in their first Big East road game, Louisville has now lost four in a row on the highway against league rivals.
Syracuse is 24-1 on the season, including 15-1 at home and 11-1 in the rugged Big East. And the Orange have one of the top ATS marks in the nation at 15-6 (they’re also 15-5 ATS in their last 20 conference games and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 at home). One last point: Syracuse, which beat UConn by five points on Wednesday but came up short as a 10-point favorite, hasn’t had back-to-back non-covers the entire year.
3♦ SYRACUSE
Derek Mancini
Georgetown at RUTGERS (+11)
Mancini here, and I'm roaring back Sunday with a solid Free Play out of the Big East, as Rutgers hosts Georgetown. I'm seeing significant public action on the Hoyas, which is of course to be expected. However, gamblers aren't accounting for a Scarlet Knights team that's really come together in recent weeks, winning 3 of their L4 SU, cashing in all 3 lined contests!
The key has been the combined play of pure scorer Mike Rosario and 7-foot pogo stick Hamady Ndiaye. Those two players give Rutgers an ability to match up with almost any lineup, especially one featuring a talented big man like Greg Monroe. Just ask the Irish's Luke Harangody how tough a match up Ndiaye is, limiting him to 8 of 26 shooting and just 6 boards, in Rutgers 74-73 upset win January 30th!
With a win over Villanova, followed by a "non-letdown" at Providence, gamblers have never been more hot for this Hoyas team... And that's precisely when you get screwed by Vegas! It makes no difference to me that Georgetown already beat Rutgers by 25 points Jan. 23rd, because this is a much more confident Rutgers team now, that also happens to be playing on their home court.
Ride the public favorite, and you'll get burned by the public favorite, much more than the other way around. Take the points and grab the live home dog in this contest, as Rutgers brings home the cash Sunday!
3♦ RUTGERS
Chris Jordan
Georgetown (-11) at RUTGERS
The Hoyas are a solid road choice tonight, as they should have no trouble outclassing Rutgers, even in Jersey.
The seventh-ranked Hoyas have already gotten nipped once this season, looking ahead, so I am not too concerned it will be looking ahead to Syracuse today.
G'Town comes in off an impressive showing against Providence, shooting 51.7 percent while limiting the Friars to 34.4 percent. And since the Hoyas showed little trouble stifling Rutgers last month, 88-63 on Jan. 23, I don't see them having much of a problem in Piscataway.
I know the Scarlet Knights have won three of four, but they're coming off a 70-62 victory over Division II Caldwell College on Tuesday - not exactly the type of competition that compares to the seventh-ranked team in the country.
The Scarlet Knights are 0-5 against ranked opponents this season, losing by an average of 23.0 points, while Georgetown has won eight straight over the Scarlet Knights.
Lay the road chalk.
1♦ GEORGETOWN