Bob Balfe
Michigan -4
Michigan is a great home team and already got the better of the Badgers this year in Wisconsin. The Badgers looked great until they hit a slump losing 5 of 6, but now have rebounded. This team plays very well, but I don’t think they have the ability to beat the top half of the Big 10 when on the road. When Michigan gets hot being the 3 point line they are one of the best teams in the country. Take Michigan.
Colorado -3
It is obvious Colorado is not the same team without Dinwiddle, but this USC team is brutal. The Trojans have won only one game in this year of 2014. USC is just not in the same class as the Buffs. The Pac 12 is a good conference, but the bottom feeders are years behind talent wise. Colorado should have no problem winning this one. Take the Buffs.
Larry Ness
Georgetown at St. Johns
Prediction: St. Johns
Back in the glory days of the old Big East, Georgetown and St. John's games were some of the most revered. However, the conference has changed with many original members having moved on. Currently, only Villanova and Creighton (new member) are NCAA 'locks.' As Georgetown visits Madison Square Garden on Sunday to take on the Red Storm, the history book says St. John's leads the all-time series 53-47, but the Hoyas have won the last SIX meetings.
The Hoyas and Red Storm each enter on four-game winning streaks, although both schools check in at a modest 6-6 in Big East play (overall, St John's is 16-9 and Georgetown 15-9). This mid-February contest has the potential of putting the winner in a position to earn a postseason spot. The Hoyas snapped a FIVE-game losing streak with a win over then-No. 7 Michigan State on Feb 1 and haven't lost since. The Red Storm have won SEVEN of their last eight contests, with the only loss coming at then-No. 20 Creighton on Jan 28, a setback they avenged at home 12 days later.
These conference rivals met on Jan 4 in Washington D.C with the Hoyas coming out on top easily, 77-60. However, that Jan 4 meeting marked the last game 6-10 center Josh Smith (11.4-3.4 in 13 games) was on the court for the Hoyas. He will miss the remainder of the season due to academic ineligibility. The good news for Georgetown is that the 6-5 Trawick (7.6-2.6) recently returned from his injury and he's averaged 13.3 PPG in the Hoyas' four-game winning streak.
Guards Smith-Rivera (17.1-4.8) and Starks (16.8-3.7 APG) have led Georgetown all season but without Smith, the frontcourt has no dominant player, left with only the 6-9 Hopkins (6.8-5.8), the 6-6 Bowen (5.4-3.6) and the 6-8 Lubick (5.3-6.0).
The Red Storm seem to finally be finding their game, playing as a team on both ends of the floor as they begin to resemble a potential postseason darkhorse. Head coach Steve Lavin recently said, ?You want to win every game, but it's rewarding to see the development coming, given our earlier struggles. We're not satisfied and cannot afford to be complacent as we haven't accomplished anything of significance yet.?
St John's uses a seven-man rotation, led by guard Harrison (18.0-4.4) and the 6-8 Sampson (12.4-6.2). A trio of guards, in Jordan (8.2-3.2 APG), Greene (7.9) and Pointer (6.6), plus a pair of 6-9 players, Sanchez (7.0-5.0) and Obekpa (4.3-4.9), complete the group.
St John's is 6-2 ATS in its current 7-1 SU run and on the season, has won 11 of 14 at home. Expect the Red Storm to easily avenge their earlier loss at Georgetown and end a streak of SIX consecutive loss to the Hoyas.
Dave Price
Oregon -8½
The Ducks fell 80-72 at Oregon State in the first meeting, but I expect them to have their revenge at home this afternoon. Dana Altman has proven over the years that if you're lucky enough to beat his teams once, you won't be as lucky the next time around. His squads are an outstanding 74-49 ATS when seeking revenge since 1997, including 51-32 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss, 44-26 ATS when going after same-season revenge and 21-9 ATS when out for revenge for an upset loss on the road during this span. He's made it clear that giving up 80 points to the Beavers in the first go-round is unacceptable. Consider that the Ducks are 14-5 ATS under Altman when seeking revenge for a loss where they allowed 75 points or more. Oregon State is just 1-7 in its last eight true road games with the seven defeats coming by an average of 9.6 points. The Beavers lost by 10 at Oregon the last time they visited, and I expect them to suffer a similar fate here. Lay the points.
Jack Jones
St Johns -4½
The St. John's Red Storm (16-9) are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the entire country. I look for that to continue tonight as they'll be out for revenge from a 60-77 loss at Georgetown (15-9) back on January 4 when they were not playing well at all.
Indeed, the Red Storm have won seven of their last eight games overall while going 6-2 ATS in the process. Their most impressive performance could have even been in their lone loss during this stretch. They fell 60-63 at Creighton as a 12.5-point underdog. They have also beaten Marquette and Creighton at home, and Providence on the road during this span.
Georgetown has only played six true road games all season, going 2-4 in them. All four losses came via blowout at Kansas (64-86), Providence (52-70), Xavier (67-80) and Creighton (63-76). St. John's is a solid 11-3 at home this season with its only three losses coming to Syracuse, Villanova and Providence by a combined 13 points.
The Hoyas are 2-8 ATS ofter playing a game as a home favorite this season. The Red Storm are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Georgetown is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Bet St. John's Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
Evansville +13
Playing against undefeated favorites of 10.0-19.5 points that have won 8 consecutive games or more has resulted in a 76-50 ATS record the last five seasons. Evansville is on an impressive 24-14 ATS run when catching 10 points or more. Plus, it's on a 7-0 ATS run in home games off a win against a conference foe and a 6-0 ATS run in home games off an upset win over a conference foe. Clearly, the Purple Aces are at their best with momentum on their side. Wichita State is one of the best defensive teams in the country, but Evansville has been able to hold its own against such teams. It is 22-5 ATS the last 3 seasons versus teams that allow 64.0 ppg or less and 7-0 ATS the last 2 seasons 15+ games in versus teams giving up just 64.0 ppg or less. The Purple Aces have won these 7 games by an average of 2.1 points. Evansville has given the Shockers more problems than anybody, winning or losing by fewer than 13 points in 9 of the last 11 meetings. Grab the points.
Joe Duffy
SMU -8
Southern Methodist is the best spread betting team in the country at 15-6 for +4.8 margin of cover (or sweat barometer as renamed by others). Admittedly, this has not been as great of a season as others when it comes to exploiting the MOC angle, but SMU has been great.
Temple has not been competitive at all at 6-17 straight up, 8-12 to the number including four straight setbacks. They are allowing 46.6 percent shooting against teams normally getting just 44.5 and 78 points per game to teams normally allowing 72.7.
Temple is playing this game less than 48 hours after getting crushed by powerhouse Louisville, while SMU is off a win to weak sister Rutgers. In fact, for the first time in program history, Temple is facing five nationally ranked teams in a row, not yet covering. So it is the massive underdogs who have a much tougher bounce back situation.
We have SMU 11 points better and they are in a better situation. The Owls’ top four scorers have accounted for 83 percent of the team’s points. Such lack of depth will crush them playing two games in three days.
Steve Janus
Oregon -8½
This may seem like a lot of points to be laying in this in-state rivalry matchup, especially considering the Ducks lost at Oregon State earlier this season. However, I look for Oregon to come out an make a statement against their rivals. The Beavers have struggled on the road, where they are a mere 3-8 this season. Despite their struggles of late, Oregon is still a solid 10-3 at home and last time they took the floor at Matthew Knight Arena, they crushed USC by 22-points.
There's plenty of reason to believe the Ducks can turn an 8-point loss on the road to a double-digit home win. Oregon shot just 38% from the field and 21% from behind the arc in the first meeting. The Beavers on the other hand shot 53% from 3-point land. All Oregon has to do is shutdown Roberto Nelson and force the rest of the Beavers to beat them. A similar strategy to that of what Arizona used in their 22-point win over Oregon State.
Oregon is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after back-to-back contest where they covered the spread. Altman (head coach) is 14-5 ATS revenging a loss where the opponent scored 75 or more points and 21-9 ATS in his career revenging a straight up loss to an opponent as a road favorite.
Dennis Macklin
Saint Peter's vs. Quinnipiac
Play: Quinnipiac -7
This is a nice revenge spot for the Bobcats thanks to a 74-67 St Peter's win in Jersey City back on January 12th. In that game, Quinnipiac shot just 33% from the field which is not likely to happen again versus a Peacock defense that allows a tick under 43% from the field for the season. Quinn is 7-1 at home this year and looking for payback from a team that has lost six of eight overall and its last four roadies by a combined 45 points. Lay it with Quinnipiac.
Alex Smart
SMU -8
The Mustangs defeated and pounded Temple on Feb. 6 by a lopsided 75-52 count Now they face a Temple side that is in a big time funk and has lost its last four outings by an average of 19.3 points.The Owls have also lost 12 of their last 13 games overall and are now in last place in the AAC. These teams continue to perform at the opposite end of the proverbial performance spectrum, and not much has changed l since their first meeting. Considering the matchup data , it makes sense that that the Mustangs can once again come out with a win and cover in todays meeting. Its all about Southern Methodist stays focused.
Final notes & Key Trends: Mustangs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games overall.Mustangs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 vs. American Athletic Conference. Owls are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games. Owls are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Doug Upstone
Hofstra vs. Drexel
Play:Hofstra +10½
On Sunday, Play Against Home favorites of 10 to 19.5 points like Drexel after scoring 60 points or less, against opponent (Hofstra) after two straight games when both teams score 65 points or less. How this free pick works is Hofstra is unlikely to be involved in a third straight low scoring game and favorites like Drexel are just 17-44 ATS in this situation, plus we also find the Dragons are just 1-7 ATS at home this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
Wisconsin +4 over MICHIGAN
The Wolverines went into Wisconsin on January 18 and defeated the Badgers by seven and they did so without Mitch McGary, who was injured 10 days earlier. That was Wisconsin’s second loss of the season at the time after the program opened the year 16-0. The wheels came off for the Badgers after that, as they went on to lose three of their next four games and suddenly went from 16-0 to 17-5. The Badgers have regrouped somewhat with three wins in a row but two of those victories occurred against Illinois and Minnesota, not exactly the cream of the crop. The other victory was more impressive, as they defeated the Spartans by two points. Wisconsin commits a turnover on 13 percent of its possessions, the third-lowest rate in the nation and they hardly ever foul, which figures to serve them well in this rematch.
Michigan made an impressive run to the national championship game last March, but its Big Ten campaign was not without big hiccups. Much like they did this season, the Wolverines rolled through the first half of the 2012-13 season, going 7-1 straight up and 6-2 against the spread in their first eight conference games. Once they started playing rematches, however, the Wolverines struggled mightily in the back half of conference play. They covered only one point spread in their last 10 tries. Frankly, we wouldn't be shocked if John Beilein's overachieving squad goes through another second-half point spread slump in 2014, as they are showing signs of it already. Furthermore, this game for the Wolverines is sandwiched between Ohio State and Michigan State on deck next weekend.
Wunderdog
Colorado -3.5
Both teams are off losses, but only one is good at bouncing back. Colorado is 27-13-1 against the spread following a spread loss, while USC is 15-31-1 ATS after a straight up loss. USC has been losing a lot this season, losing 10 of their last 11 games. USC is the worst defensive team in the Pac 12, and riding a 3-8-1 ATS run. Colorado has won three of the last four games, the only loss at UCLA. Colorado does a lot of things well, fifth in the Pac 12 in shooting, fourth in field goal shooting defense allowed, sixth in free throws, and scoring defense. USC has been a Pac 12 money-burner for a while, 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 against the Pac 12, so grab the hungry/bounce back visitors. Play Colorado.
River City Sharps
SMU -8
We have had the opportunity to see this SMU team when they played here against Louisville, as well as seeing at least five other games they have played. We have not seen Temple play much until their Friday night game with Louisville, where they were completely blown out of their own place! We did not pull the trigger on Louisville Friday because we felt like Temple might be better than we thought. Boy were we wrong! They are a decent offensive team, but they are seriously one of the worst defensive teams we have watched all season. Now they play a disciplined, confident Larry Brown team that scores the ball and will defend you for 94 feet. The last four teams that Temple has played at home have all shot 51% or greater from the field! The Owls have lost 12 of 13 games and are just 2-8 at home this season. In the first game between these two in Dallas, Temple had one of their worst performances in a 75-52 loss, a game in which SMU outshot the Owls 54.4 to 30.3%. We have been impressed with SMU as they continue to get better and we think that Brown's experience and his team's confidence is enough to get us to a double-digit win.
Cajun Sports
Villanova vs. Creighton
Play: Villanova +3.5
Villanova travels to face Creighton on Sunday evening with tipoff set for 5:00 PM Eastern Time. Villanova will be looking to avenge an earlier loss on their home floor to the Creighton team, it was not just a loss they suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of this Blue Jays team. Villanova has been playing well since that loss posting a 6-0 SU mark with a money-making 5-1 against the spread record over that span. Nova is 11-1 SU on the road this season covering the spread at a rate of 9-3 ATS in those contests. Creighton has been perfect at home SU going 13-0 but their spread record has not been as effective as their SU record with a mark of 7-4 against the number at home. A check of both teams performance against common opponents we see that Villanova holds a decisive advantage with a record of 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS while Creighton has gone 9-2 SU and just .500 against the spread with a 6-6 ATS mark in those games. We will take the points on Sunday with Nova as they surprise the Jays and win this one straight up. Take the points
Michael Alexander
Colorado vs. USC
Play:Colorado -3½
When the conference rivals last met, the Buffaloes still were dealing with the shock of losing their most versatile and valuable player, Spencer Dinwiddie, to a season-ending knee injury in their previous game. The win over the Trojans was sandwiched between a pair of two-game losing streaks, but Colorado then began to find its way by winning three straight prior to the loss to the Bruins on Thursday. Colorado starters Askia Booker and Xavier Johnson, who both are from Los Angeles, have elevated their games in Dinwiddie’s absence. USC has ended a lot of Pac-12 losing streaks this season, and Colorado attempts to become the latest team to get a bounce-back win against the last-place club.