Harry Bondi
ST JOHNS (-4.5) over Georgetown
Revenge for the Red Storm tonight! Johnnies got blasted by Georgetown in the first game when they forgot to get off the bus for the first half and trailed 42-16 at half! They outscored the Hoyas by 9 in the second half but it was not enough and they lost in embarrassing style to their long time rival 77-60. Lavin's boys remember that thumping and there is no way the offensively challenged Hoyas can match their 9-13 three point shooting or that they will get hosed by the referees at home like they did in DC when Georgetown outscored the Red Storm 22-10 from the free throw line. Take St John's.
Joe Gavazzi
Villanova +2.5
A true handicapper's conundrum when asked to make a decision between the 60-7 SU home court of Creighton, 12-0 SU this season, and the revenge motive of the No. 1 team in the league playing with lone loss revenge for a 96-68 beat down. You will recall that was the Monday night, where Wragge and McDermott led a contingent of Blue Jays, who knocked down 20+ triples at Wells Fargo, many coming in the first 8 minutes of play. The Wildcats have since gone 6-0 SU ATS, lead Creighton by a game in the loss column, and have lost to only Syracuse in road or neutral games. 13th year Villanova HC Wright has made all the right moves in adjusting to the rule changes to return to his 4 guard roots, surrounding interior force Pinckney, to create a Wildcat team reminiscent of his Big Dance appearances. In an under the radar type of way, the Wildcats have held their last 4 league opponents to just 58 PPG. When Wright's teams enter a game following consecutive defensive performances of 65 or less points, they are 42-23 ATS. Siding with embarrassing lone conference revenge, an improving defense, and the better balanced offense against a Creighton team who may have peaked a bit early, if their recent 0-4 ATS log is to be believed.
Dave Essler
St. John's -4
Not sure what this line will do. I suspect waiting will get us a better number, but it is what it is and that's information. The Hoyas have indeed won four straight, but since their neutral court win over Michigan State, they haven't beaten a good team. Conversely, St. Johns has, beating Creighton, as well as Providence and Seton Hall on the road. Huge confidence wins. G-Town wants to play inside, which of course plays right into the teeth of the St. Johns defense, which leads the nation in block percentage, and of course we love the fact that St. Johns has done a great job of not turning the ball over. Remember, this is a Hoya team that has been beaten badly on the road, and has lost at home to Seton Hall. I do think regression happens here, not to mention that G-Town kicked the shit out of St. Johns earlier this season. St. Johns should ramp up the pace, which should pay it's dividends in the 2H since their bench is shorter, IMO, and the Red Storm shoot FT's well enough to cover at the line should it come to that. Don't most of them?
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Michigan State/ Nebraska Under 135: The Spartans are favored by 13.5 in this game and Nebraska averages 57.1 ppg on the road, so unless the Spartans score 80+ I don't see how this game goes over. In the Big 10 it has been even worse for the Nebraska offense as they have averaged just 55.1 ppg in their Big 10 road games, while scoring more than 57 points in those games. The Husker have played good defense in their Big 10 road games, allowing just 67.3 ppg in those games and they should easily keep the Spartans, that are missing Appling, out of the the 80 point range in this one. The Spartans havn't been as great defensively as in years past, but they do allow just 64.8 ppg at home and I can't see the Nebraska offense really approaching that. The Huskers will slow it down and the Spartans will play great defense, which should keep this one in the 120's
2 UNIT PLAY
Michigan/ Wisconsin Under 138: Just can't see this game being that high scoring. The Under is 9-4 the last 13 meetings and while the last 3 in the series have gone over, we note that those games averaged just 133.6 ppg, and that includes one of the games going into OT. Both teams come in playing very good defense, as the Wolverines have allowed just 64.8 ppg in their last 5 games and 58 ppg at home on the year. The Badgers have been clicking defensively of late, allowing just 62.2 ppg in their last 6 games, while also allowing just 61.8 ppg on the road this year. Both teams play at a medium pace, but just too much defense in this one for it to go Over the total.
Brian Edwards
Villanova at Creighton
Play: Creighton -2.5
Creighton has failed to cover the number in four consecutive games because it has been overpriced. However, in today's home game vs. Villanova, the price is right for a play on the Bluejays, who are 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Wildcats. Greg McDermott's team is undefeated in 13 home games this season with a 7-4 spread record. Creighton has been a single-digit home 'chalk' three times, posting a 2-1 ATS mark. When these teams met in Philadelphia on Jan. 20, it was all Creighton from the jump. The Bluejays put on a show, setting school and Big East records by draining 21-of-35 attempts from 3-point range. They led by 40 – that's right, 40! – with more than six minutes remaining. Ethan Wragge scored a career-high 27 points thanks to nine treys on 14 attempts. With eight 3-balls in the first 16 minutes and change, Wragge surpassed his previous career high of 22 points before halftime. Doug McDermott was steady as usual, producing 23 points on 8-of-13 shooting from the field. Austin Chatman dished out 10 assists, while Jahenns Manigat finished with 19 points. Now obviously, I'm not expecting another shooting show like we saw in the City of Brotherly Love. Villanova will have revenge on its mind and if anything, what happened in the first encounter could be advantageous for the Wildcats. I'm expecting a tight game that will likely be decided at crunch time, but that's when McDermott is at his best. With McDermott delivering when it matters most, I think Creighton gets some separation in the last two minutes to win by 6-8 points and hook its backers up with a winning ticket. It's going to be a 16th straight home win for the Bluejays in Sunday's Big East showdown in Omaha.