Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 17

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Illinois vs. NorthwesternFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: IllinoisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Illini got the season off to a fabulous start with 12 straight wins and as 2012 came to a close, John Groce’s 1st-year squad was sitting chilly at 13-1. But a freeze hit when Illinois slammed the wall right after the New Year, thanks to the start of the Big Ten schedule (or was it too much New Year’s champagne in Champaign?), losing three straight games twice during a 2-7 skid, including a 68-54 loss to the Wildcats on their home floor as a 10-point favorite. However, just when things were spinning out of control, Tyler Griffey’s layup at the buzzer knocked off then-No.1 Indiana, and a tough road victory at Minnesota followed, suggesting that the season might be headed back in the right direction. Now the Illini head back to Evanston with revenge on their minds to take on the Wildcats in front of a sellout crowd, needing a victory to put them on the cusp of another 20-win season, and hopefully cementing a spot in the Big Dance. Meanwhile Northwestern is in the middle of a Buckeye/Badger revenge sandwich, where they are 3-6-1 ATS after Ohio State and just 1-8 ATS before a home tilt with Wisky. In addition the battered Cats are down to seven lives, having lost the services of F Jared Swopshire (knee) and senior Drew Crawford (shoulder) for the season. The clincher is the Wildcats’ dismal 4-10-1 ATS record at Welsh-Ryan Arena in this series. You know what to do. We recommend a 1-unit play on Illinois.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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East vs WestFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Really having to fade big totals now. In year's past we thought it was high to see a total in the 250's, now we see the 2013 number open at 289 and rise to 291 on Saturday. But does history support this? Lets look at the All Star totals since 2000. Last year's game in Orlando was the highest scoring regulation game of the 2000's with the West winning 152-149 (301 pts). But, previous to that season we have these totals: 281 (2011), 280 (2010), 265 (2009), 262 (2008), 285 (2007), 242 (2006), 240 (2005), 268 (2004), 300 (in 2 OT's, 2003), 255 (2002), 221 (2001) and 263 (2000). We have seen the total points trending upwards each year, but so has the oddsmaker. That's why we see such a high total on this year's contest. But I think it's over inflated. The oddsmaker knows people like to play All Star games over and they are going to make you pay for it. The history of the game shows this total is still too high and the value here on Sunday is UNDER.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Minnesota vs. IowaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We go back to the Big 10 for our free play after cashing Nebraska by a half point for Saturdays free play. Minnesota has covered 10 of the last at Iowa and is 4-1 as a road dog of 3 or less. They have a solid RPI Ranking at 13 and have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country and are 8-0 vs teams ranked 51 to 100. Iowa is 2-7 this season vs top 100 RPI Ranked teams and has lot 3 of the last 4 here to the Gophers. They are also 1-5 to the spread at home when the total is 130 to 135. Look for Minnesota to emerge with the win.

John Ryan

USC at California
Prediction: USC

The simulator shows a high probability that USC will lose this game by fewer than five points and has a solid shot at an upset win. In games like this where the sim shows solid projections for the upset, I have found that using a combination bet serves to increase my bottom line profits over the course of the season. In this case, consider making a 7* wager on the line and a 3* amount using the money line. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 102-55 ATS for 65% winners since 2006. Play against home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points making 4 or less 3 point shots per game on the season. Cal does not shoot well from the perimeter, especially beyond the arc. Cal ranks 333rd attempting just 12.7 3-point shots per game and 334th making an average of just 4.0 3-point shots per game. This will allow USC to pack a 2-3 zone into the box and force Cal into taking perimeter shots. US defense ranks 78th allowing 44.6% shooting from 2 point range. Take the Trojans.

Jimmy Boyd

Niagara +2

This matchup falls into a system to play against a team like Manhattan when the line is between +3 and -1 and that team is coming winning between 20-40% of their games and coming off a win over a conference rival facing a team with a winning record. This system is 55-25 ATS over the last five seasons.

Niagara is 18-6 ATS the last 24 when playing on the road against a team that has won between 20-40% of their games after the 15 game point in the season. This should be an easy opportunity for the Purple Eagles who average 74.2 PPG to improve that number because the Jaspers average only 59.1 PPG and have major issues with rebounding and turnovers.

Niagara has already handed Manhattan a loss this season and there is no reason to believe we won’t see a similar outcome in today’s matchup. The Purple Eagles are protecting their 11-4 conference record and should be well prepared to take on this weak Jaspers team.

Dave Price

Iowa -1

First off, Iowa has been great at home where it is 12-2 this season. The losses came to Indiana and Michigan State, by 4 and 3 points respectively, in games the Hawkeyes easily could have won. Iowa is an impressive 20-8 ATS in its last 28 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Secondly, Iowa will be very hungry today. It gave a game away late at Minnesota earlier this month and will be out for some serious revenge. This is also a big game for the Hawks in terms of its NCAA tourney chances as it is currently 5-7 in conference play. Iowa is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games versus teams with a winning percentage above .600, and it is 8-1 ATS in all games this season versus teams that carry a winning percentage of .600 to .800. Iowa won last season's home meeting by 4 points, and I expect a similar outcome here. The Golden Gophers have dropped 4 straight on the road and will have a tough time ending this skid in Iowa City.

Alex Smart

Kings / Blackhawks Under

Blackhawks expected starting goalie today vs the LA Kings is Ray Emery 4-0-0. The backstop has allowed nine goals (2.21 GAA) in his starts Chicago as a team owns a brilliant 1.86 GAA. Meanwhile .Jonathan Quick is expected to be in goal for LA, . He brings a 3-4-2 record and 2.70 goals-against average with him. Last season, Quick's GAA was 1.95 and once again hes capable of becoming stingier as the season progresses behind a tough defense, that coincidentally allowed just 13 shots on goal in their last tilt. These teams despite of being able to light the cage up on a consistent basis , are still defense first teams, and Im expecting thats what translates onto the ice today and the final score.

Jack Jones

USC Trojans +7

The California Bears are way overvalued tonight as a 7-point home favorite over the USC Trojans Sunday. I look for this game to go right down to the wire and to be decided in the final few possessions.

USC comes in playing its best basketball of the season. It has won four straight with road victories over UCLA as a 10-point underdog and Stanford as a 9.5-point dog. It also beat Washington State and Washington at home during this streak.

Cal if also playing well coming in, but that's why it is overvalued here. It has won four of its last five with two of those victories coming by a combined 7 points. Off a road win at Arizona and a home triumph over UCLA, and with Oregon on deck, this is clearly a big letdown spot for the Bears.

Cal is 11-25 ATS in home games after covering 5 or 6 of its last 7 against the spread since 1997. The Trojans are 54-27 ATS after a win by 6 points or less since 1997. The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

USC is a perfect 5-0 ATS in its last 5 meetings in California. It will be the more motivated team heading into this one to try and revenge a 64-72 home loss to Cal on January 5th in their first meeting of the season. This is a completely different Trojans team now than it was a month ago. Bet USC Sunday.

Bruce Marshall

James Madison at Delaware
Pick: Delaware

Expect a bit more from Delaware this afternoon in New-ARK than what the Blue Hens produced in their first meeting vs. JMU back on Jan. 23 when shooting a paltry 28.9% from the floor and getting outrebounded by a whopping 46-28 margin in a 64-50 loss at Harrisonburg. U-Dee can turn the tables at home , however, as Blue Hens enter on a 3-game win streak and are finding other scoring options to supplement star 19-ppg scorer Devon Saddler (G Jarvis Threatt contributed 20 points in midweek upset win at Northeastern). Play Delaware

SPORTS WAGERS

CALIFORNIA -7 over Southern Cal

Both teams have identical 7-5 conference records so it might make these points being offered look rather appealing. Not so, as identical in talent they are not. The Trojans are imposters. Their 7-5 record is the result of them beating every team below them in the standings. USC has played five ranked teams this season and were defeated by all of them. Its best win this year came against UCLA in OT by four points. This visitor doesn’t excel in any area and we can’t even say they’re good in any one area. They’re a pedestrian team with an unimpressive résumé.

The Golden Bears résumé is much more impressive than USC’s. They’ve won four of their past five games with three of those victories occurring against the top three clubs in the PAC-12. California defeated #10 Oregon by 4, they went into #7 Arizona and won by eight and capped it off with a 13-point win over UCLA. Suddenly, they’re a bubble team and if they run the table, the committee has to consider them for an at-large bid. The Bears are also a threat for an automatic bid should they win the conference tournament. The Golden Bears went into Southern Cal on January 5 and defeated the Trojans by eight points. The Bears were not in top form at that time but they are now. With the stakes higher and Cal on a roll, they should have little trouble disposing of this inferior opponent.

ILLINOIS STATE -2 over Wichita State

We’ve previously talked about the Redbirds of Illinois State being one of the most undervalued squads in the country. Even with a mediocre 7-7 conference mark and 16-10 overall record, that still holds true. The Redbirds are now a small home favorite over Missouri Valley leader Wichita State, a team that defeated ISU back on January 16 by 12 points to put the Redbirds in a 0-6 hole in its first six MVC games.

What a difference a month can make. The Redbirds now sit at 6-7 in Valley play. One of their recent wins came at #16 Creighton as an eight-point dog. Over their past seven games, the Redbirds are scoring more points per possession than any team in Division I basketball. Jackie Carmichael and Tyler Brown are thriving as an inside-outside combination, one that is proving very challenging for opposing defenses to slow down. Out of 347 Division I schools, the Redbirds rank 24th in the nation in points scored, 25th in assists per games and 39th in FG percentage. Illinois State’s only chance of reaching the NCAA tournament consists of winning the Missouri Valley tournament (held annually in St. Louis). That's going to be a tall order but they’re playing the best basketball of any Valley team right now and this bargain price appears to be unaware of that.

Pass CBB

JR O'Donnell

Washington +140

Plus the nice +140 as the Wash Capitals are improving nicely in a nasty nasty dog role here as we will go 2 fisted on the Caps Sunday late late tipper..... Riding a sweet high here as Nebby + 9.5 late winner and Washington U cruised by the Ore State ball club last night .... #'s are strong with these Caps tonight as they invade the Garden ..let's hammer home the Dog here to steal 1.... Capitals will go for the 4th consecutive victory on Sunday when they visit Madison Square Garden to face the New York Rangers.

Joe Gavazzi

Illinois St. -2

Who is the hottest team in the Valley? It certainly isn't the league leaders. Entering the weekend, Wichita was on a 2-3 SU run, Creighton was on a 0-3 SU (1-8 ATS) slide, and Indiana St was just 2-2 SU (1-3 ATS) of late. Hello Redbirds! After a mind boggling 0-6 SUATS beginning in league play, first year HC Mullins (Stallings disciple), has turned things around in Normal. Today they enter on a 7-1 SU run, having won and covered each of their last four games. Including an upset of Creighton, 75-72 as +10. The sixth game of their season opening losing streak was a 74-62 loss at Wichita. These Redbirds will be as dangerous as any team come tourney time. In the recent 4-0 SUATS run, they have covered by 50 points, indicating there is plenty of upside available. Following a miraculous road favorite cover at Bradley on January 6th, this bureau and others anointed sixth year Wichita HC Marshall as one of the best road coaches in the nation. At that time, it was backed up by a 19-4 ATS road chalk mark. In the last six weeks however, the Shockers have gone 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS as road chalk, including losses at Evansville, N. Iowa and S. Illinois. None of whom is anywhere near as good as these Redbirds. Momentum and revenge is a profitable situation to back.

Frank Jordan

Miami Florida vs. Clemson
Play: Miami Florida

On Saturday three top 25 teams lost #2 Duke, #16 Pittsburgh, and #21 Notre Dame what do all those losses have in common they came on the road. Today Miami Florida the #3 team in the land head on the road to ACC rival Clemson. The biggest loss of yesterday came in ACC play with Duke losing at Maryland. This loss gives 20-3 Miami Florida a big leg up to pass Duke if they can hold on as the Blue Devils fall to 22-3 and now 9-3 in the ACC. Miami Florida is a perfect 11-0 in ACC play. Look for the trend of Saturday to stay there as the Hurricanes continue to roll through ACC opponents as they win in Clemson on Sunday evening and looking to jump ahead of Duke in the top 5 in tomorrows rankings. Play Miami Florida

David Chan

Wichita St. vs. Illinois St.
Pick: Illinois St.

Situational Analysis

Wichita State is most recently coming off a 71-56 win over Drake on February 13th. Fred VanVleet had 17 points off the bench. However, this is a "revenge game" for the home side after it lost 74-62 to the Shockers on January 16th.

Illinois State comes into this game with plenty of momentum after hammering Bradley 79-59 on February 13th. Jackie Carmichael had 27 points and 13 boards. Tyler Brown added 22 points, eight boards and five assists. And it was the way the Redbirds closed the game which leads me to believe they'll continue strong tonight, finishing on a 24-4 run.

Statistical Analysis

Note that Wichita State is just 3-6 ATS on the road this year.

Note that Illinois State is a perfect 4-0 ATS this month, and 9-8 ATS when playing the role of favorite.

Pick Analysis

"Revenge" is a powerful motivator. Look for the Redbirds to take advantage of home court, and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night!