Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February, 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB
Dunkel

Duke at Boston College
The Eagles look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13 points or greater. Boston College is the pick (+15 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Devils favored by only 13. Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+15 1/2)

Game 821-822: Indiana at Iowa (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 68.031; Iowa 66.353
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 1 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: Indiana by 4; 154 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+4); Over

Game 823-824: Michigan State at Purdue (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 77.742; Purdue 70.046
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 7 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-4); Under

Game 825-826: Syracuse at Rutgers (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 71.874; Rutgers 64.540
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7 1/2; 117
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 10; 120 1/2
Dunkel Pick Rutgers (+10); Under

Game 827-828: Vanderbilt at Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 70.833; Georgia 63.656
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 7; 133
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 6; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-6); Over

Game 829-830: Penn State at Wisconsin (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Penn State 57.524; Wisconsin 73.615
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 16; 117
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 14 1/2; 112 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-14 1/2); Over

Game 831-832: Duke at Boston College (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 70.048; Boston College 57.219
Dunkel Line: Duke by 13; 134
Vegas Line: Duke by 15 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+15 1/2); Under

Game 833-834: South Florida at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 60.639; Pittsburgh 68.876
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 126
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 6 1/2; 121
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-6 1/2); Over

Game 835-836: Oregon at Stanford (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 66.750; Stanford 64.425
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 2 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Stanford by 5 1/2; 136
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+5 1/2); Under

Game 837-838: Boston U at Loyola-MD (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston U 49.721; Loyola-MD 59.269
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 9 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 7 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-7 1/2); Over

Game 839-840: Tennessee State at Miami (OH) (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 55.237; Miami (OH) 56.091
Dunkel Line: Miami (OH) by 1; 124
Vegas Line: Miami (OH) by 3; 128 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee State (+3); Under

Rob Vinciletti

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Minnesota
Play: Philadelphia 76ers +1

Minnesota fits a negative system here that plays against certain home teams with 1 day of rest that scored 90 or more as a road dog of 5 or more points and are now taking on an opponent that scored 90 or less as a home favorite of 4 or less. These home teams have failed to cash 8 of the last 9 times. This season teams coming off a straight up favored loss like Philly are 25-10 ats vs a team off 2+ wins. The Sixers are 4-0 after scoring 85 or less, 4-1 off a favored loss, 10-5 on Sunday and an impressive 13-2 vs teams with a losing record. Thye have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and take on a Timberwolves team that has lost 3 of 4 vs teams who allow 91 or less points per game and are 1-3 as a home favorite of 3 or less. With Minnesota just 4-9 vs non conference teams we will back Philly tonight.

Marc Lawrence

Oregon @ Stanford
Pick: Stanford -5.5

Most fowl-consuming restaurant goers prefer their duck slightly seared and glazed with a sweet orange sauce. However, we’re here to tell you that duck works just fine when presented in sandwich form… particularly the Oregon variety. That’s because OU flies south today off a monster eight-time revenger against league-leading Cal (Ducks just 6-10 ATS away from Eugene after facing the Bears) while looking ahead to a same-season revenger with archrival Oregon State next (1-6-1 ATS as pick or favorite before OSU). How’s THAT for a sandwich? Pretty darn tasty when you take a gander at Stanford’s incredible home history in this series: 20-1 SU and 15-5-1 ATS, including 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS when the Ducks own a winning record. Wow! And Oregon’s recent 17-48 SU road log versus winning foes is hardly a deterrent. A quick glance at the Cardinal’s closing schedule tells us a strong season-ending run could vault the hosts into a Top 4 finish in the conference race. Despite the fact that Stanford has won just two of its last seven Pac-12 games prior to facing Oregon State on Thursday, the Cardinal’s 22-7 SU mark at home the last two years – along with their strong series history on the Farm – commands major respect. Garcon? We’ll take another duck sandwich please… with extra meat. We recommend a 1-unit play on Stanford.

Jim Feist

Mavericks vs Knicks
Pick: Under

Lin-sanity finally came crashing down for the Knicks as New York lost at home to the lowly Hornets, 89-85. It was the first loss for the Knicks with Lin starting. Sensation Jeremy Lin had 9 turnovers and now along with the Knicks have to regroup against a hot Dallas club. And they will likely do it without star Carmello Anthony. Anthony is still nursing his sore groin and is not expected to play Sunday. Dallas has rattled-off six straight wins and is 4-1-1 ATS during that span. The defense has been very good of late for Dallas, allowing just 75 points to Philly and 84 to Denver, both very good offensive clubs. Dallas now ranks 5th in defense in the league, allowing just 90.8 ppg. Could be another tough outing for Lin and the Knicks here against a surging Dallas team. I look for a low scoring affair as Dallas keeps the Knicks scoring to a low number. Take the UNDER.

Lenny Del Genio

Dallas Mavericks at New York Knicks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

By all accounts, Knicks forward Carmelo Anthony will NOT return here and that should spell trouble for the home team here as they welcome in defending champion Dallas, winners of six in a row. "Linsanity" is all the rage right now, but the Knickerbockers have played the weakest schedule of any team in the league over the last two weeks. This will be the toughest test since Lin moved into the starting lineup. New York is 1-5 ATS Off a SU Loss as a favorite. Take Dallas.

Rocketman

Milwaukee Bucks vs. New Jersey Nets
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -2

Milwaukee is 30-7 ATS the past 3 years against Atlantic Division opponents. Milwaukee is 17-7 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. New Jersey is 29-50 ATS last 3 years when playing against a team with a losing record. New Jersey is only 3-11 SU at home this year. New Jersey has lost 8 straight games overall. Milwaukee is 7-0 SU and ATS overall vs New Jersey the past 3 years including 3-0 SU and ATS at New Jersey. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!

Stephen Nover

Charlotte @ Indiana
Pick: Charlotte +11

As bad as Charlotte is - and the Bobcats are the worst team in the NBA right now - Indiana doesn't deserve to be a double-digit favorite right now.

The Pacers are 1-5 in their last six games. The lone victory during this span was against hapless New Jersey. The Pacers have failed to cover the last eight times they've been favored. They are 0-7 in their past seven home contests.

Charlotte has really missed starting point guard D.J. Augustin. He had missed 11 games, but came back two games ago playing 32 minutes in the Bobcats' last game this past Friday, a 98-91 road win against Toronto.

That loss snapped a 16-game Charlotte losing streak and should give the Bobcats a much needed does of confidence. The Bobcats' scoring should rise with the return of the underrated Augustin along with Corey Maggette being back in the lineup. Rookie Kemba Walker has done a nice job, too, for the Bobcats. Walker gives Augustin two scoring options.

Only once in their last 18 games have the Pacers won by more than 11 points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit 76ers/Timberwolves Over 190.5

Minnesota has been an overs machine of late, finishing over the total in 12 of its last 17 games. The T-Wolves have played to the over in 4 of their last 5 while combining with their opponents to average 198.2 points during this stretch.

Even with back-to-back unders, Philly has still played to the over in 5 of its last 8. Following a pair of poor offensive performances, I expect the 76ers to bounce back with a strong offensive showing this evening.

The Sixers have played to the over in 5 of their last 6 on the road. This comes as no surprise considering they're averaging 97.4 points away from home on the season. It is also worth noting that they have played to the over in 11 of their last 13 games as a road underdog of 4.5 points or less and in each of their last 7 versus the NBA Northwest division.

When these teams last met in March, we saw 211 total points scored. In fact, these two have combined to average 208 points over the last four meetings. The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings and 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Minnesota. We'll take the Over.

EZWINNERS

Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5

This is the fourth game in six days all on the road for the Kings who are just 3-15 away from home this season. Sacramento has to be a bit deflated after letting a big effort from Demarcus Cousins go to waste in their last loss to Detroit in a game in which they were leading for most of the game. The Kings should get a very focused effort from the Cavs who were embarrassed in their last game by LeBron and the Heat. The Cavs are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen games against a team with a losing record and I expect the Kings road woes to continue. Lay the points.

Razor Plays

Pittsburgh Penguins -130

Sabres started out the year great but have since fallen back to their regular lackluster play. Penguins mean while are still getting points without Sid and are still a threat. The last time these 2 teams played Pit left with a 8-3 win. Yes 8-3. Buffalo is on a 4 game skid right now and they would love nothing more than to snap it against this foe. However we're not entirely sold that they can do that.

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim +105 over FLORIDA

In its most important game of the year hosting Washington on Friday night, the Panthers were outshot 41-23 and lost 2-1. In its last three wins, Florida managed 23, 20 and 19 shots on net. The Panthers are creating less scoring chances than just about anyone over the past month and things don't figure to get better until they get a whole slew of healthy bodies back. Three of Florida's top d-men remain out and it shows, as their makeshift defense is not moving out of the zone in an efficient manner. This offensively challenged team will now have to face one of the hottest goaltenders in the game in Jonas Hiller and the hottest team in the league too. The Ducks come in on a 14-2-3 run. They were robbed in New Jersey on Friday night when a goal in OT was overturned, not to mention two goalposts in OT and one in the shootout. That's not sitting well with them and they'll be ready to take it out on the Panthers. Despite that loss, the Ducks are playing outstanding hockey under Bruce Boudreau and have picked up points in eight straight. As a result of their hot streak, suddenly a playoff birth is a reachable goal and it's doubtful the Panthers get in the way. Play: Anaheim +105 (Risking 2 units).

Boston -½ -108 over MINNESOTA

You've heard of dead man walking. Well, this is dead team skating here, as the NHL has not seen futility like this Wild bunch in a long, long time. Minnesota lost to St. Louis yesterday 4-0. They've scored one goal or less in six of its last eight games. Its only win over that span was a 1-0 victory over Colorado. In 16 of its last 27 games, Minnesota has scored one goal or less. A Junior-A team could produce more than that. They managed 13 shots on net yesterday. Now the Wild will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. They also picked the wrong time to face the Bruins. Boston has just three wins in its last eight games and as a result, its stock is low. It's for that reason we get such a favorable line. However, the score doesn't always tell the story. Despite going 3-3 in its last six, Boston has not been outplayed in any of them. They completely dominated the Rangers in that 3-0 loss. Against Montreal and Winnipeg, both on the road, they played two strong games and deserved more than the two points. The best news is that the Bruins are not feeling complacent. They're taking some heat from the press and that's a good thing, as they'll come in here determined not to lose to this sick host. This is a mismatch of mammoth proportions and frankly, we can't see how the Bruins don't dominate from start to finish against a tired, demoralized and talentless group. Play: Boston -½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Sacramento +114 over CLEVELAND

Usually we don't put a lot of emphasis on key players being out because it's figured into the line. However, Anderson Varejao out for the Cavaliers is a huge blow because he's the heart and soul of the team and the defense. Minus Varejao, the Cavs' defense goes from decent to lousy in a heartbeat. Antawn Jamieson and Omri Casspi play no defense and this high scoring act from Sacramento should be able to come in here and get terrific looks all day. The Kings have lost four straight but they played in New York and Chicago and lost by just six to the Bulls. Prior to that they had won four of five and that includes a win over the Thunder. All five starters for the Kings can put up double digits. If two guys are cold, three others are not. This is as good an offense as any in the league right now and we just don't see how the Cavs are going to defend them without Varejao or keep pace with them. What makes this dog so appealing is that if Varejao were in, the Cavs would be about the same price. Oddsmakers have this one incorrect. Play: Sacramento +114 (Risking 2 units).

RUTGERS +10½ over Syracuse

The Orange has lost one game this season. That one loss occurred about a month ago in Notre Dame. Syracuse comes in ranked #2 in the country, on a six game winning streak and having beaten Rutgers 10 straight. Overall, Rutgers has dropped four straight and six of seven. Three of its last four losses have been by double digits. All this doesn't make for an easy case of pulling the trigger on the home team. However, you're going to pay a premium for wagering on the Orangemen today and that seldom comes recommended. We've seen this situation far too often. That being a ranked team laying significant road points in a conference matchup and not covering. Syracuse is coming off that very fortunate win over Louisville. They were also fortunate to beat both Georgetown and West Virginia. They're good, but they've also had every bounce go their way. The Scarlett Knights have underacheived. They were supposed to be better than this. They're loaded with bigs and they've played tremendous defense from time to time. The problem is too many minutes of unfocused basketball. This is a game they should have no problem getting up for and staying focused for 48 minutes. The Scarlett Knights have had a lot of good games this year that include a 2-point loss at Georgetown, a double OT loss to Florida, and wins over Cinci and UConn. This is the perfect spot for another strong showing. Play: Rutgers +10½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Penn State +15 over WISCONSIN

The Badgers are ranked #17 in the country but we're not convinced that's accurate. They're ranked 17th because of their defense only. In terms of their offense, Wisconsin is one of the worst in the country among major programs. The Badgers rarely blow out anyone. Of their last seven wins, six have been by seven points or less. They've lost every big game they've played this season (North Carolina, Marquette, Michigan State (twice), Michigan, Ohio State and they even lost to Iowa. Penn State is not going to come in here and win. The Nittany Lions offense is actually worse than the Badgers. Penn State has recently lost eight of nine but they're feeling a whole lot better after consecutive wins over Nebraska and Iowa. PSU is certainly out of this thing. With no pressure on them whatsoever and confidence higher than its been in a while, expect the Nittany Lions to hang around for most of the game. With a total of just 112 and with Wisconsin having lost two of three, grabbing the points here makes sense. Play: Penn State +15 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Vegas Experts

LA Lakers at Phoenix Suns
Play: LA Lakers

We know the Lakers have struggled on the road, but this number is not nearly high enough against a poor Phoenix team they just beat 111-99 Friday night. Pardon the pun, but the "Sun" is definitely setting on the Steve Nash era and the home team is just 4-16 ATS when playing with revenge for a double digit loss. Phoenix has lost four in a row overall while the Lakers come into the desert on a three-game win streak. The Lakers are simply much better than the Suns right now and that's not reflected with this NBA betting line.

Dave Price

1 Unit Cleveland Cavaliers -2

We'll fade the Kings on the road as they are just 3-15 away from home this season. The Cavaliers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Lay the deuce.