Free NCAAB Release for 2/19: Iowa +4 over the Indiana. Iowa is showing excellent value as a home underdog to the Hoosiers. As good as Indiana is this season (#20, 78.4 points/game, 49.2 FG%), they still havent impressed us on the road where they're just 4-5 SU, and allowing their opponents to 71.8 points/game. Today the Hoosiers face an Iowa team that plays their best basketball at home, no doubt about it. Iowa is 11-4 SU at home this year, where they're averaging 76.9 points/game on 45% from the floor while holding opponents to just 67.6 points/game. The Hawkeyes enter this game coming off of two straight road losses, and will be hungry to right the ship where they play their best ball. Iowa is a solid 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in this series. They lost by 14 points three weeks ago in Indiana and will be looking to serve up some home revenge here. Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home dog. Indiana is just 2-6 ATS in their last eight coming off a SU win, 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. And more importantly, the Hoosiers are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven trips to Iowa. We'll side with the home dog here, Iowa +4. Our free plays are now 164-87-1 all-time. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive the best free picks on the internet via email. Thank you, and good luck.
NHL Predictions
Detroit Red Wings -144
The Sharks are a solid 31-18-7 on the season, but have lost 5 of their last 7 games and are just 13-9-5 on the road this year. The Sharks played back to back road games on Thursday and Friday losing to both Tampa Bay and Carolina. The Sharks are in the middle of a big road trip, and have lost 4 of 5 to start it off, and are now facing the leagues best home team playing their 3rd game in basically 3.5 days with the afternoon start time. The Red Wings have won 22 straight home games (a league record) and are now 25-2-1 on home ice this season and 40-17-2 overall. Joey MacDonald has taken over for an injured Jimmy Howard and is 5-1-1 with a 1.61 GAA and .933 SV% in his 7 appearances. He has won 5 straight starts, where he has allowed just 7 goals against. Antti Niemi will start for the Sharks after being called out following his 4th loss in 5 starts. Niemi allowed 6 goals against in an OT loss in Tampa Bay and has allowed 19 goals against in his last 5 starts. With the Sharks on short rest, the Red Wings playing better hockey and getting better goaltending I don't mind laying some chalk on the home team looking to win their 23rd straight game at home. Take the Red Wings.
David Banks
Nuggets / Thunder Under
The Northwest Divisions top two teams are set to go at one another Sunday Night in the OKC where the Thunder (23-7, 17-13 ATS) will host the slumping Denver Nuggets (17-14, 18-13 ATS); tip-off from the Chesapeake Energy Arena is set to go live on ESPN at 8:00 ET.
Times have been very tough for Head Coach George Karls squad who has been a shell of its former self having dropped nine of its L/12 overall games (4-8 ATS). Denver at one point led the division by a couple games, but now finds itself 6.5-games back after dropping a tough 103-102 decision in Memphis on Friday night. Injuries have played a major role in the Nuggs downfall, as stud Danilo Gallinari has been sidelined with a severe ankle injury and missed each of the teams last six games; his return to the line-up is yet to be determined. If thats not enough, the squads big man Nene Hilario has also been sidelined in the teams last 3+ games after straining a calf muscle. Those two absences have forced Denver to go at its opposition minus an average of 30+ points per game. The Nuggets have dropped four of their L/6 road games and enter with 9-7 SU & 11-5 ATS overall records away from the Pepsi Center.
Owners of the best overall record in the Western Conference, the Thunder are firing on all cylinders entering tonights game having just scored a blowout 110-87 victory over the Golden State Warriors. The home win improved the Thunders record in front of the hometown faithful to 11-1 SU & 7-5 ATS for the year. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook form one of the most explosive duos in the league with the former scoring an average of 26.8 PPG and the latter right behind him with 22.6 PPG. Sixth Man of the Year candidate James Harden is the only other player to average double-digits (17.0 PPG), but the Thunder is a very deep team with seven other players averaging at least 4.0 PPG. Along with possessing the leagues third highest scoring offense (101.6 PPG), OKC has only allowed its opposition to shoot 42.2 percent from the field. If the team could limit its league worst 17.1 turnover average and not send their opponent to the free throw line with insane regularity, the Thunder would be even better than they already are.
This will be the first meeting between these division rivals this season. They last met in the quarterfinal round of the 2011 Playoffs with the Thunder winning the series in a quick five games. The road team is 3-1-1 ATS the L/5 meetings, but the Thunders covered the closing number seven of the L/10 times they hosted the series. Denvers 22-7 ATS its L/29 on the road, but checks in just 1-5 ATS its L/6 versus +.500 opposition. OKCs covered five of its L/7 against the Western Conference, but has failed to cover each of its L/6 versus a +.500 road team. The under is 3-0-1 in the L/4 meetings and 5-2 the L/7 times these teams went at one another in Oklahoma City.
Steve Janus
Vanderbilt -6
I have no problem laying 6-points on Vanderbilt at Georgia on Sunday. The Commodores went on the road and absolutely crushed Mississippi 102-76 as a 4.5-point favorite last Thursday and are a remarkable 8-1 ATS in road games after a win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Vanderbilt has been one of the best teams to back on the road as they are 13-4 ATS in road games over the last 2 seasons.
Georgia has been a solid home team this season, but their only conference home win came against Arkansas, who simply doesn't play well on the road. The Bulldogs suffered a heartbreaking 56-57 loss at South Carolina their last time out. That was a game they really expected to win and I look for them to struggle to bounce back today. Georgia was able to cover the spread in that game, but they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
Georgia is also just 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Jack Jones
Tennessee State +3
Tennessee State should not be an underdog to Miami (Ohio) today in college hoops. Tennessee State is one of the best teams in the country that nobody knows about. Miami (Ohio) is clearly in a rebuilding year.
Tennessee State is 18-10 on the season. They are on the only team to beat 21st-ranked Murray State this year, doing so on the road. That win was part of their current 8-game winning streak and I have no doubt they'll make it nine in a row today.
Miami (Ohio) is 1-9 ATS as a favorite this season. Tennessee State is 8-1 ATS off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons. The Red Hawks are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 home games. Miami (Ohio) is 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. Bet Tennessee State Sunday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Wisconsin -14
Thursday's disappointing loss at Michigan State, the Badgers will show no mercy to a Penn State squad that is 0-7 on the road in Big Ten play. While this may look like a hefty number, consider that those 7 road losses have come by an average of 16.9 points. The Nittany Lions are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games in which they have been valued as a road underdog or pickem. They've lost these contests by an average of 17.0 points. The Nittany Lions are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 13.0 or greater. The Badgers are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games as a home favorite of 13.0 or greater. Lay the points.
GoodFella
Detroit Pistons +5.5
I like the Pistons at home here. I tweeted out some info on this game already this morning, and while yes this is a "payback game" for Boston, who lost at HOME to these Pistons by 10 pts just 4 days ago, they were coming off a home win over the Bulls the previous game....Well, we have the same scenario here today, as the Celtics are again coming off a game vs the Bulls, 2 days ago. Toss in that Boston plays at Dallas tomorrow and I do like scheduling situation we have here for the Pistons. Detroit has been playing much better ball (6-2 SU L/8), & I do think this team is a bit undervalued in general. Big fan of the backcourt duo of Knight and Stuckey and of course the Pistons play much better ball at home. Yes, Boston has had L/2 days off, & Detroit had yesterday off, so both teams will be fresh, as Detroit has been home for the last 4 days. I like Detroit to give Boston a battle, and can definitely see them winning this game outright too. We will grab what I see as a nice live home dog here and grab the +5.5 and play on the Pistons.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Knicks/ Dallas Under 186: Google News Play. The Knicks have been playing much better offensively of late, but for me i will be looking at their defense, which has played well all year long. The Knicks come in allowing just 93.9 ppg, including just 89.6 ppg in their last 8 games. They have allowed 95 pg at home but that's ok as the mavs come in averaging just 91.6 ppg on the road. Speaking of the Mavs, they have played great defense this year as they come in ranked 5th in points allowed (90.8) and 1st in defensive FG% (41.4%), while in their last 5 games they have allowed just 88.4 ppg on 38.1% shooting. This is a team that ois locked in defensively right now and should be able to keep Linsanity and the rest of the Knicks down, while New York's defense does the same vs a Mavs team that struggles to score on the road. I say go with the Under in this one.
Nelly
Philadelphia / Minnesota Over
For the season Minnesota has been a slight 'under' leaning team but after the 'under' opened 11-2-1 in the first 14 games the 'over' is 12-5 in the last 17 games. At least one team has hit triple-digits in 14 of the past 17 games for the Wolves. Rick Adelman has coached many high scoring teams after a bit of a transition early in the year this team is emerging as a dynamic offensive threat, averaging 97.7 points per game on the season including 99.4 points per game over the last five contests. Minnesota has been struggling defensively, allowing nearly 99 points per game over the last five contests and for the year at home the Wolves are surrendering nearly 45 percent shooting. The Wolves have been one of the worst defensive teams in the league against 3-point shooting, allowing over 36 percent shooting from beyond the arc and the 'over' has hit in seven of the last nine meetings between these teams. Technically Philadelphia has allowed the fewest points per game in the entire league, surrendering just 87.2 points per game but the schedule has played a role as the 76ers have faced one of the lightest slates in the league so far this season. The 76ers have allowed 87 or more points in six of the last nine games however and on the road Philadelphia is allowing 93 points per game. The 76ers have been the ultimate 'under' team at home with the 'under' going 14-5 but in road games the 'over' is 8-4 on the year. Look for high numbers in this match-up as Minnesota will force the tempo and the fading 76ers will have trouble living up to the season defensive numbers.
Dr. Bob
Sunday NBA Opinions
MIAMI (-9) over Orlando
Both of these teams are playing well, as Orlando has won and covered 4 straight games while Miami has won and covered in 5 straight games since losing 89-102 at Orlando on the 8th. Miami is just 6-19 ATS when favored by more than 8 points against teams with a win percentage of .334 or higher but the Magic also apply to a very good 88-28-3 ATS home favorite momentum situation that I rarely pass on. I will pass on that angle this time, but I’ll lean with Miami at -9 or less to get their revenge.
Charlotte (+11) over INDIANA
Charlotte ended a 16 game losing streak with a win at Toronto on Friday night and that win sets up the Bobcats in a 33-3 ATS subset of a 88-34-2 ATS situation that plays on bad teams after a confidence boosting upset win. The Pacers also broke a losing streak with their 5 point home win over the Nets, but Indiana has now dropped 8 straight games to the spread, so I don’t mind going against them here. Charlotte is better with D.J. Augustin back in the lineup, as they’re only 8.6 points worse than average in the 19 games Augustin has played, compared to their overall rating of -12.7 points. However, my ratings still favor Indiana by 12 points using only the Bobcats’ games with Augustin. I’ll lean with Charlotte at +11 or more based on the strong situation and I’d take Charlotte in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.
WUNDERDOG
St. Louis at Chicago
Pick: Under 5.5
The pace in this one will be slow, which is what St. Louis is able to do on the road. The UNDER is 31-10-12 in the Blues' last 53 game overall, including 16-6-4 UNDER the total in their last 26 road games. Chicago had to play yesterday and they are home after a brutal nine-game road trip, so they will be happy with a slow-paced game. The UNDER is 11-1 in the Blues' last 12 games as an underdog, 10-1 UNDER in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 20-5-7 UNDER in the Blues' last 32 games following a win. And for Chicago, the UNDER is 5-1 in the Blackhawks' last six games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Play this one UNDER the total.
OC Dooley
Orlando Magic +9
Miami just returned from an outstanding six-game road swing where they dominated 5 different opponents including a 111-87 romp Friday night in LeBron’s second visit to Cleveland since spurning the franchise. On the road swing the Heat became the first NBA team since way back in 1970 to record 3 double-digit road triumphs in a 3-night span. But the lone setback on that road swing just happened to be in Orlando in a contest where superstar Dwight Howard (25 points, 24 rebounds) dominated the Miami defense along with Ryan Anderson who lit up the scoreboard with a 27 point effort. Anderson nailed 12 of Orlando’s 17 different successful three-point shots from behind the arc as the Magic set an all-time team record with 42 attempts. Orlando actually matches up well with Miami since the two teams sit atop the Eastern Conference statistically in three-point field goal percentage. It also must be pointed out that Miami has a winning overall ROAD record (8-5). In this series when played in South Beach the Magic have stayed even recently going 2-2 both straight up and against the spread. The following may come as a shock but the mighty Heat are only 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games. In the past three years Miami is a horrible 4-14 ATS/HOME after successfully covering the spread 5 times in a six-game span. In general it has been a high percentage wager to play “against” a team like Miami in their first game at home following a lengthy road swing
Tony Stoffo
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves +1
NBA Free Play - Philadelphia at Minnesota Here we have a Reverse money move - as the public is on Philadelphia here with 77% of all straight bets - plus 75% of all parlays and teasers bet. Yet the odds makers had to make a move downward on the 76ers - as the Sharp money has started to come in on the Timberwolves. Plus add in this solid trend favoring Minnesota here only adds to a solid play on the Timberwolves in this spot. Play against - Road underdogs (PHILADELPHIA) - after failing to cover 4 of their last 5 against the spread, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season. This solid situational trend has gone 52-24 hitting at a 68% clip over the past 4 seasons.
Ben Burns
Vancouver @ Edmonton
PICK: Edmonton +1.5
Getting an extra +1.5 goals could easily come into play here. While last night's game was a "blowout," the Canucks have still seen 13 of their last 17 games decided by a single goal.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have seen six of their last 10 decided by a single goal.
Three of the last four in this series, have also been decided by a single goal.
This will be just the second time that the Canucks will have played the second of b2b games in 2012. The previous time that they did so? You guessed it. Another one goal game.
The Oilers have been at their best on Sundays this season. With the schedule and venue in their favor, consider laying the wood and taking them @ +1.5 goals.
Eric Williams
Dallas Mavericks vs. New York Knicks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -2½
Take the Dallas Mavericks today at New York despite the ongoing Linsanity!
The Mavs have won six straight and would like nothing better than to make a statement today on national TV.
Dallas has gone 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against NBA Atlantic Division teams while also compiling a very consistent 18-7-1 ATS mark in their last 26 road games overall.
The Knicks are coming off a narrow loss to New Orleans the last time out and just aren’t quite as good as the defending-champion Mavericks despite their improved play as of late.
The Knicks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog and 2-5 ATS in their L/7 home games versus a team with a winning road record.
Last but not least, the Mavericks are 5-0 ATS in the last five road games against New York and 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings against the Knicks overall.