Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 20,2011

Marc Lawrence

St. Bonaventure at Richmond
Prediction: St. Bonaventure

Six-foot-nine junior forward Andrew Nicholson (20.5 PPG) is carrying 14-10 St. Bonaventure to new heights this season. The Bonnies haven’t recorded a winning season since 2001-2002 but led by Nicholson, the former A-10 Rookie of the Year, that’s all about to change. Not only have the Bonnies delivered the green on the road this season (7-3 ATS), they own a respectable 6-5 SU mark, including wins at George Washington and St. John’s. We’ll look for that success to continue this afternoon in Richmond as St. Bonaventure is a more-than-comfortable 3-3 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in six lifetime visits to the Robins Center. With the Spiders off a pivotal revenge match at Temple (0-3 ATS home after the Owls), this is a nice spot for a hungry dog to step in and add to its post-season tourney resume. It’s a shocker in the Web as the Bonnies improve to 5-1 ATS on the Atlantic 10 highway. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Bonaventure.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Wisconsin Badgers -11.5

As if Wednesday's loss at Purdue isn't enough to get Wisconsin's blood boiling, a quick recollection of last month's defeat at Penn State should do the trick. The Badgers have been unstoppable at home for years now, and this year has been no exception. Wisconsin is 14-0 on its home floor in 2010-11, winning these contests by an average of 19.2 points. Penn State knows the difficulties of winning at Wiscy all too well. The Nittany Lions have dropped 11 in a row on the road in this series dating back to the 1997-98 season, losing these contests by an average score of 73-55. In addition, Penn State hasn't fared well on the road this season. It is just 1-7 when playing away from home, and it has lost its last two at Illinois and at Michigan State by an average of 17.5 points. Going back to the beginning of last season, Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS at home when out to avenge a loss to a team that held them to less than 60 points. We'll back the Badgers in this revenge spot.

Frank Jordan

Clemson vs. Miami Florida
Play: Clemson

These two teams met back on January 8th and Clemson came away a home winner 79-72, but this time around the game is in Miami. Miami FL is just 4-7 in ACC play but are 10-3 at home. On the road Clemson is 2-6, but are 6-6 in conference play. This will be a drag down brawl of a game that will go down to the final tick with Clemson coming away a winner when the dust settles getting over the .500 mark in ACC play. Play Clemson

Rob Vinciletti

Georgia Tech vs. Duke
Play: Duke -20.5

Duke should be able to name the score here in a game that could get ugly early. GA. Tech is 0-4 straight up and ats as a road dog of 12.5 or more the last 3 years and 2-7 ats on the road this year. Duke is 90-59 ats since 1997 as a home favorite of 12.5 or more since 1997. When the total is 145 to 150 in their home games they are 10-1 ats. Duke has controlled this series winning 24 of 27 going 19-8 ats in the process. Take Duke to Dominate.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Purdue Boilermakers -1

Purdue enters Sunday's contest with plenty of confidence following wins over Illinois and Wisconsin. That confidence will serve this team well as it looks to avenge last month's brutally embarrassing loss at Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been escaping by the skin of their teeth on the road in Big Ten play. They were lucky to win at Iowa, Michigan, Illinois and Northwestern before finally falling at Wisconsin. They face another tough task playing at Purdue, where the Boilermakers are a perfect 14-0 this season. Incredibly, Purdue is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season. The Boilermakers are crushing these opponents by an average score of 74.5 to 59.0. Motivated by last month's crushing defeat at Ohio State, and playing with the home court advantage, look for the Boilermakers to have their revenge Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Duke -20.5

Georgia Tech, which lost by 17 at Kennesaw State, is no match for the Dukies today. The Yellow Jackets' last road defeat came at VA Tech to the tune of 25 points. Expect Duke to hand Tech another beating. Even if the Yellow Jackets move the ball well and limit turnovers, there is a good chance they will still get blown out of the water. Consider that Duke is an impressive 6-0 ATS the last 3 seasons versus poor shooting teams making 42% or less of their shots. The Blue Devils have destroyed these foes by an average of 36.8 points. I believe the total gives us a good indication as to what the odds makers are expecting as well. Duke is 7-0 ATS in home games when the total is 145 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons, winning these contests by an average of 31.3 points. Lastly, Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. We'll lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

CHICAGO -½ -104 over Pittsburgh

The Pens are getting way too much credit for being able to compete with quality teams when in fact they cannot. Pittsburgh is 2-2 over its last four games and that helps to keep this number way lower than it should be. Those two wins came over the Kings in a game that L.A. dominated from start to finish. The Pens other win came against an Av’s club that has now lost 10 in a row and has more casualties than Pittsburgh. The Penguins resemble a minor-league club. Every serious offensive threat they have is on the rack. They’ve scored three goals in three successive games but even Chris Angel would have a hard time making that illusion work again. The Pens will also play their fourth road game in succession before returning home to meet the Caps tomorrow so don’t be surprised to see back-up goaltender Brent Johnson in net here and Marc Andre Fleury tomorrow. Chicago is in desperation mode. Losing this game is not an option. The Blackhawks are four points out of a playoff spot but they have to climb over three teams to get there. They’re also just a point up on the Jackets and two points up on the Blue Notes. Conceivably, they could fall into 13th place in the conference by their next game should they drop this one. That’s not going to happen against a minor-league club. Play: Chicago -½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

PURDUE –1 over Ohio St.

On the final day of Bracket-Buster week and on a Sunday afternoon with no NBA games, the oddsmakers have made Purdue a favorite over the former #1 team in the country that’s now ranked #3. Ohio State is 25-1 and on Jan 24th they beat the Boilermakers by 23 points. The Boilermakers are just 6-4 in their last 10 and that, too, adds to the Buckeyes appeal to the general public. The Buckeyes can virtually lock up the Big-10 title with a victory here, as Purdue is two games back and a loss here would drop them three back with four games left. Bracket-Buster week has a history of ruining bankrolls and it’s games like this that contribute to that. With March Madness and Selection Sunday just around the corner, this is the weekend that college basketball begins to attract a lot of money, as thousands begin to follow the sport from this point on and they also start wagering. A ton of money has been coming in on the Buckeyes and don’t think for a second that the oddsmakers are surprised. They’re not and fully expected that when they offered up points to this highly ranked guest. What we know for sure is that by playing Purdue, we’re on the same side as the house and that’s the side to be on during this final day of Bracket Busters. Play: Purdue –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

CALIFORNIA –105 over UCLA

This game was off the board at the time of this writing due to the unknown status of Bears freshman guard Allen Crabbe. We expect the game to be a pick’em and we’ll update this as soon as the line comes out. UCLA might even be a one or two-point favorite but regardless of whether Ctrabbe plays or not we’re on the home side. Cal has lost four in a row for the first time in three seasons and they need to string together a couple victories just to be in the conversation for the NIT. A third straight trip to the NCAA tournament is a faded dream. UCLA has a legit shot of an invitation or an automatic bid should they win the conference tourney. They’re just 1½-games back of Arizona with a game in hand and this is that game. The Bruins have won six in a row and 10 of its last 11 and just like the Buckeyes, they, too, will attract plenty of attention here. Despite losing just one game since Jan. 9, UCLA is hardly overpowering opponents. They won 69-65 at Stanford on Thursday, its sixth single-digit victory in its past 10 wins with most of those victories being at home against some very weak Pac-10 opponents. When they played Cal back on Jan 20 at Pauley Pavilion, they won by a bucket on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Pac-10 is not strong this year. None of these Pac-10 clubs can be trusted on the road and we see evidence of that every week. UCLA has already lost at USC and they also needed overtime to win at Arizona St (2-12) by a point. The Bears are more than capable of beating this intruder and would love nothing more to ruin the Bruins chances of not only winning the division but also of being invited to the dance. Play: California –105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

MARYLAND –10½ over N.C. State

Rarely will you see us endorsing a 10½-point favorite in a conference game between rivals that have almost identical records. Maryland is just one game ahead of the Wolfpack in the ACC and both teams are under .500. Why then, are the Terps such a big favorite? The oddmakers are begging you to take the points. Don’t bite. Despite being close in the standings, these two are not close in terms of talent. The Terps had an incredibly tough out-of-conference schedule that saw them play Penn State and ranked teams, Pitt, Illinois, Temple and Villanova. They’ve also faced both Va Tech and Duke twice. The Terps are one of the top offensive clubs in the nation and when they win they usually win big. The Wolfpack also played a decent out-of-conference schedule but they’ll play their third road game in their last four and fifth road game in their last seven. The kicker here is that they return home to play the Tar Heels and no doubt that game means the world to them. N.C. State has just two road wins in nine attempts and the line says they’re very likely to get destroyed here. Play: Maryland –10½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

EZWINNERS

Purdue Boilermakers -1.5

Ohio State has a great team this season, but this Purdue team has the talent to play with anyone in the country. The Boilermakers were embarrassed earlier this season in a 23 point loss by the Buckeyes in Columbus, and I look for them to get revenge in this rematch. Purdue is 14-0 at home this season and I expect them to play with a lot of intensity this time around. In the first meeting Purdue coach Matt Painter said that his team lacked intensity but I expect to see it today. Purdue is making a push for a number one seed in the NCAA tournament and a win here would go along way to achieving that goal. Lay the points.

Brent Brooks

Miami / Clemson Over 131

While Clemson plays better defense than Miami, they both are perimeter oriented, free-wheeling offenses. I have this game capped in the high 130s and it may eclipse 140. Grab it early as I expect this total will only go up.

Matt Rivers

Georgia Tech +21

Reasoning: This write-up is actually going to be pretty funny because all signs will point to me liking Duke. Georgia Tech is inferior in every single category bar none and it’s not even close. But the problem with this game is that the number is just too much, even for a regressing Georgia Tech team that has next to nothing going for them right now.

Nolan Smith has been awesome and the Dookies overall are heads and shoulders better than the Yellow Jackets, there is zero debate at all there. Paul Hewitt is turning into an underachieving disgrace and without Brian Oliver the boys from Hotlanta are one of the worst teams in the entire ACC right now. I would say that only a dismal Wake Forest team is worse.

Smith, Kyle Singler, the Plumlee brothers, Seth Curry and the rest of Coach K’s squad may be up going away by 20 at the half. After all Virginia Tech last week raced out to the huge lead and pummeled these same Jackets. So if anybody believes that Tech has any sort of a chance to keep this thing close then I would say that they are beyond crazy. With that said though everybody seems to somewhat get up for Duke and I do not believe that this current version of the Blue Devils is truly all that. These guys were outplayed at home last week by a good but nothing more North Carolina team and truly are not as great as the 24-2 overall mark would indicate.

Iman Shumpert has been playing some lights out ball for the Jackets and even though his team stinks they did at least come into this thing off of the victory against Chattanooga and to get three touchdowns plus in-conference, even at Cameron Indoor, is going to prove to be a few too many.

This may not be a fun game to back the dog in because they have no shot whatsoever to even keep it relatively close. We may see a 55-35 laugher at some point but even so this gargantuan number should just still be too much in the end.

Michael Alexander

NC State vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -10.5

NC STATE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) as an underdog this season

NC STATE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) versus excellent teams - shooting >=45% with a defense of <=42% this season

MARYLAND is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons

David Malinsky

St. Joseph's / Temple Under

We are not going to see pace either early or late in this one, with several key factors in play. With a young and short-handed group Phil Martelli has been going out of his way to slow tempo when out-manned this season, including a lot of “four corners” looks, and as such the Hawks have played 5-0 to the Under when taking double figures, with those games falling a significant 54.5 points below the projections. And in all Atlantic 10 games as an Underdog it has been an 8-1 run to the Under. Yet we are not seeing the markets make much of an adjustment – this is basically the same line range as the 132.5 these two teams closed at when they met at the Palestra three weeks ago (the game fell 126).

Meanwhile Fran Dunphy is in a “win and move on” mode here, off of a key conference win over Richmond on Thursday, and with a major showdown at Duke coming up on Wednesday. Even without those distractions he would not go out of his way to embarrass Martelli, but keeping the pace slow and the minutes for the key cogs manageable is even more of an issue with Scootie Reynolds, who leads the team in minutes played, and is second in scoring, in conference action, sitting out today. That leaves a thin rotation even tighter.

Look for St. Joe’s to slow this to a waltz in the early stages to try to compete, but an offense shooting just 40.2 percent in the conference will find scoring difficult vs. this defense, much like they did in the first go-round (54 points on 37.5). Meanwhile Temple will be content to work the clock with a lead in the second half, and this one should not b close enough for us to have to worry about any late-game shenanigans.

Jack Jones

Old Dominion -5

Old Dominion gets the call Sunday as a 5-point home favorite over Cleveland State in this Bracket Buster game. There is a very good chance that the winner of this game goes to the NCAA Tournament, and I'll gladly side with the home team. ODU is 21-6 this season, and 12-2 at home where they are outscoring opponents by 11.3 PPG. Old Dominion has been playing some of the best defense in the nation this year, giving up 57.8 PPG overall and 55.1 PPG on 39% shooting at home.

Cleveland State is 0-6 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. Old Dominion is 8-1 ATS in home games after 3 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less over the last 3 seasons. They are winning in this spot by a whopping 20.0 PPG. Better yet, ODU is 11-1 ATS in home games after 4 straight games where both teams score 70 points or less since 1997. Cleveland State is 1-9 ATS in road games versus bad pressure defensive teams - forcing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games since 1997. I have no problem backing a team like ODU who plays sound defense for 40 minutes. Bet Old Dominion Sunday.