DAVE COKIN
NORTHEASTERN AT HOFSTRA
PLAY: NORTHEASTERN +7
If you’re wondering what has suddenly gotten into Northeastern, it’s a simple enough answer. Quincy Ford is back in the lineup after missing four games, all of which were Huskies losses.
Ford has now been back for four games and Northeastern has gone 3-1. Ford was okay in a loss to UNC-Wilmington. He didn’t do much more than get his feet wet in an ugly win over Towson. He was a little better in the next outing as the Huskies got past Drexel. But on Thursday night, the real Quincy Ford was on full display. He logged 52 minutes in the triple OT thriller at James Madison, and pumped home 36 points in leading Northeastern to a wild win.
Speaking of triple OT, the first hookup this season between the Huskies and Hofstra went 55 minutes as well. The Pride ended up on top in that classic. I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a rerun of sorts today.
There’s a decent long term revenge angle in play here. Road dogs that lose the first meeting at home by one, two or in overtime are a solid blind play in the rematch. Well, at least they have been until this season. The current campaign’s ledger for teams fitting this theory is now 12-15 vs. the line. There’s still a strong enough rationale in play here to suggest this angle will remain productive long term, but so far, not so so goos this season, and really bad lately.
As for the matchup, I think it’s another dynamite CAA duel. There are a number of teams in this conference that are really close, and now that Ford is back on the floor, I put Northeastern in that group.
From a historical perspective, this is a very underdog-oriented series and for whatever reason, Hofstra is a really lousy spread team at home. That’s a nice add-on, but my main take here is that I consider Northeastern a bit undervalued now that their star is good to go. The spread seems generous to me, and I’ll be taking the points with the Huskies.
Rob Vinciletti
Boston College vs. Wake Forest
Play: Boston College +8
This is a match between 2 ACC Cellar dwellers and the Eagles are getting too many points here. They are 12-3 vs losing teams, 4-1 vs teams who allow 77 or more and 7-3 ats on the road with 3+ days rest. Wake Forest has lost 11 straight after starting 10-5. They are 4-17 ats the last few years off a road game, including 0-6 ats as favorites. They are also 1-5 ats at home with revenge.
Marc Lawrence
Pelicans vs. Pistons
Play: Pelicans +5½
Edges - Pelicans: 6-1 ATS last seven games in this series; and 3-1 ATS on Sundays this season. Pistons: 0-4 ATS with one day of rest versus opponent with one day of rest. With the boys from the Bayou anxious to reverse their dismal first half doldrums starting after the All Star break, we recommend a 1* play on New Orleans.
Will Rogers
Lakers vs. Bulls
Play: Lakers +7
The Lakers come into Chicago as losers of four straight, but they've covered the spread in six straight. They are getting a generous cushion here in Chicago, and the Bulls have not been sharp, losing five of their last six. My money is on the visitors plus the points.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Lakers have covered the spread in five straight road games, and five straight when playing on one day's rest. The Bulls have failed to cover in five of their last six at home, and nine of their last 10 when playing on one day's rest.
2. Injuries - The Bulls are still missing leading scorer Jimmy Butler, and their former Defensive Player of the Year Joakim Noah is out for the season. Derek Rose is healthy, but surely he's just one wrong step away from the IR.
3. X-Factor - The Bulls are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games against teams with a road winning percentage below .400.
Scott Spreitzer
Michigan vs. Maryland
Play: Maryland -9
Former Terrapins basketball coach Lefty Driesell told the current roster they had a chance to be the best Maryland team ever. Maryland then went out and lost back-to-back games at Wisconsin and Minnesota. The loss to the Badgers is forgivable, but the "hangover" loss to the Gophers is not and I expect a refocused effort in today's homer against the Wolverines. Michigan has lost three of five, but they will have a target on their back after beating the Terps 70-67 in Ann Arbor in January. Maryland was off a 3-point win at Wisconsin just three nights prior and are in a much better "bet-on" spot this time. Also, Michigan will likely have to take the floor without leading scorer and second leading rebounder Caris LeVert again. LeVert is doubtful with a knee injury. U-M enters on a 0-6 ATS slide on the road against teams that make at least 48% of their FGA, while the Terps are on a 15-5 ATS run at home, following a SU loss as a favorite in their previous game. I expect the Terps to bounce back again.
Mike Lundin
Grizzlies vs. Raptors
Play: Under 202½
I think we're in for a low-scoring contest when the Toronto Raptors host the Memphis Grizzlies Sunday night. The under is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings in the series and Memphis' Marc Gasol who averaged 24.0 points in last season's two meetings will most likely miss this game and the rest of the season with a broken foot. The Raptors may have struggled defensively of late giving up a total of 233 points through their last two games, but they were both on the road and they're holding opponents to an average of 96.8 points per game home at Air Canada Centre where the under is 13-2 in their last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Memphis is averaging just 95.9 points per game on the road while surrendering 97.5, and the under is 14-3 in the Grizzlies last 17 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Jim Feist
California vs. Washington St
Play: Over 143½
California's defense is suspect away from home, on a 7-3 run over the total, as well as 4-1 over in the Golden Bears last 5 games following a straight up win. Washington State's offense clicks best at home and the Over is 10-2 in the Cougars last 12 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Over is 10-2, including 5-0 over the total in the last 5 meetings in Washington State.
Jimmy Adams
Monmouth vs. St. Peter's
Play: Monmouth -7½
We cashed a ticket earlier in the week playing against Monmouth, and we'll go right back to the window, this time on their side. The Hawks will be looking for a bounce back win after losing at home 83-67 to Iona in their latest contest. Monmouth has been extremely efficient on the offensive side of the court this season, ranking 28th in the country in scoring. Prior to the Iona game the Hawks had won 8 straight. That was also their first home loss. This game will be played on the road but you have to think that they'll be fired up and ready to get back on track, wanting to get that much closer to a conference championship.
St. Peter's comes into this game with just a 12-14 overall record, and they were absolutely stomped earlier in the season when they played the Hawks. Another big factor in the game is that the Peacocks had to play a make up game against Manhattan this week, meaning they'll be playing their 3rd game in just 4 days. That's not common for a college team, and at this point in the season fatigue is already taking its toll on a normal schedule. St. Peter's offense is anemic. In fact, they rank 318th in the country in scoring. You can obviously see the disparity between these two teams which is why we'll look for the Hawks to cruise to a double digit victory.
MMA OddsBreaker
Strickland vs. Garcia
Pick: Sean Strickland
Sean Strickland and Alex Garcia are in the same weight class, but you wouldn't know it by looking at them standing next to each other. Strickland is taller, longer and has the physical edge just about everywhere that can be measured, while Garcia is a bit more powerful and is quicker in short bursts. Garcia is dangerous early in the fight, but if he can't put his opponent out quickly on the feet, he fades and resorts to his wrestling, but that's an area where Strickland shines. I expect Strickland to utilize all his physical advantages in this contest and take over late as Garcia begins to gas out. The fight is near pick'em but I see value in Strickland.
Raphael Esparza
Webb (-220) over Coy
This fight goes pretty early in the card, and I highly recommend jumping on this price quickly. Nathan Coy has dropped 3-Straight MMA fights (two in Strikeforce - one in UFC) and his first UFC fight he lost in the first round to Danny Roberts by submission. Wouldn't shock me to see this fight go the distance, but if Jonavin Webb can establish his striking early we could see him end this first in the mid-second round. Either or, I don't see Nathan Coy winning this fight and Jonavin Webb getting some redemption after his loss in May of 2015. Hurry up and grab this number because wouldn't shock me to see this number close around -250 or higher.
John Ryan
Jazz vs. Blazers
Play: Jazz +3½
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Utah will win this game. Given this favorable projection I always like making these DOGS combination wagers comprised of a majority of money placed with the line and a smaller amount placed on the money line. For this play consider making a 7.5* play using the line and a 2.5* play using the money line.
Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 80-38 ATS mark good for 68% winners since 2010. Play against home teams (PORTLAND) in a game involving two average teams (+/- 3 PPG differential.), after a blowout win by 15 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Snyder is 52-22 ATS (+27.8 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent as the coach of Utah; 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) when they attempt 23 to 28 free throws in a game over the last 2 seasons.
Power Sports
California vs. Washington St.
Pick: Washington St.
This certainly looks like a bit of an inflated line to me. I say that based on the fact that California just picked up only its second road win of the year Thursday night (at Washington) and is now being favored by double digits to win another. Granted, Wazzu has been struggling a bit. But I say take the points.
Though currently in a logjam in the middle of the Pac 12, Cal's NCAA Tournament hopes now look quite good, assuming they can finish the season strong. They've won and covered four straight, but as mentioned above, the road has generally been unkind. Thursday was just the second time this season that they won outside of Berkeley, the other being at Wyoming back in early December, and the two wins have come by a total of nine points. You can see then how them being asked to lay double digits here would qualify as "putting the cart before the horse" so to speak. It took Washington shooting a woeful 32.9% Thursday for the Bears to pull out just a three-point victory.
Now, Washington State clearly has issues that extend beyond just the road. The Cougars have lost 12 in a row, the latest coming at home Thursday to Stanford. That was a 72-56 final, but interesting is the fact they were only 2.5-pt dogs there. I'm not sure that Cal is that much better than Stanford, plus Wazzu is a respectable 8-8 SU here in Pullman. This is more points than what they were taking vs. Arizona, the best team in the Pac 12, earlier in the year. Good value on the home dog in this situation.
Jimmy Boyd
Washington State +10
The Cougars are showing great value here as a double-digit home dog against the Golden Bears. Cal comes into this game having won 4 straight. The first three wins in this stretch all came at home, but the Golden Bears were able to go on the road and beat Washington 78-75 for just their 2nd road win of the season, as they are now 2-8 away from home.
I believe this is going to be a tough spot for Cal to emotionally get invested against a Washington State team that has lost 12 straight and coming off a 16-point home loss to Stanford. Getting up for this game will be an even bigger challenge when consider the schedule the Golden Bears have left. After this game they have to host UCLA and USC in a span of just 4 days and close out the season with back-to-back road games at Arizona and Arizona State.
The key here, is while Cal is in a bad scheduling spot, we can count on Washington State coming out extremely motivated playing at home off an ugly home loss, plus this will be the Cougars final home game of the season, which almost always provides an emotional lift.
Cal is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games against teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers/game, 5-15 ATS in their last 20 after playing 4 or more consecutive games as a favorite and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after playing their previous game as a road favorite.
3G-Sports
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Play: Wisconsin -12
Wisconsin can play excellent basketball when they keep the game in their flow. Nigel Hayes makes great decisions when on offense and defense, his scoring and offensive rebounding will be imperative. Illinois have been very lax against the inside game, and it will get exploited here. Meanwhile, their deep ball game has been solid, with Jalen Coleman-Lands, but it still won't be enough. Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games. Wisconsin wins and covers giving the points
Larry Ness
Philadelphia vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas
The Dallas Mavs are 29-27 after losing FIVE of their last six. The slump leaves the Mavericks a half-game over current No. 7 Portland and with just a one-game edge on two teams virtually tied for eighth in the Western Conference playoff standings, 28-28 Houston and 27-27 Utah. The team’s recent rough stretch has increased the urgency of an upcoming season-high six-game homestand which begins tonight against the 8-46 Philadelphia 76ers. The Mavs weren't playing especially well entering the All-Star break and were sluggish coming out of it, falling behind by 21 points late in the first quarter Friday in Orlando. They then tired late in losing 110-104 in their third straight overtime game and league-high NINTH this season.
Dallas overcame its early deficit behind a franchise-record 19 three-pointers but couldn't hit shots down the stretch, going 7 of 24 in the fourth quarter and overtime while being outscored 31-17 over the final 14 minutes of regulation. "It's a long game and you've got to outlast a team like this and we were unable to do it," said Dallas coach Rick Carlisle. "Frankly the group we have is not doing a good job finishing games." The Mavs now need to take advantage of playing NINE of their next 10 at American Airlines Center. As noted, the six-game homestand begins with Philadelphia, which comes in with an NBA-worst 3-25 record on the road this season and takes the court tonight having lost SEVEN of its last eight, overall.
Philadelphia is last in the league in scoring (95.5 PPG) but while the team is a woeful 3-25 SU on the road, the 76ers are 14-14 ATS. However, the 76ers have lost six straight to the Mavericks overall and NINE in a row in Dallas since a 93-89 win back on Jan 29, 2005. I’m going to lay the points.