Ken Thomson
Middle Tennessee St -2.5
Will play Middle Tennessee State at home where they are ( 4-0 ) in Murfreesboro vs. CUSA opponents and are ( 10-1 ) on the season with the lone loss by 6 points to a solid VCU squad out of the A-10.
In the first game of Conference play these two teams met back in Birmingham and UAB won by a 78-67 final. Middle Tennessee blew a 42-30 halftime lead were only down one with 5:19 to play before being outscored 14-4 down the stretch.
In that game, Blue Raiders leading scorer Giddy Potts did not play. Potts averages 15 points a game and is an even 50% behind the arc at ( 59 for 118 ). The Murphy Center will be rocking as Middle Tennessee State can take over first place with the home win. Reggie Upshaw & Darnell Harris combined for 37 points in the first meeting for MTSU and if they can come close to those efforts with Potts now in the line-up the Blue Raiders could roll.
UAB has lost 2 of last 4 on the road at Western Kentucky & at Louisiana Tech. The others were both 3 point wins at Marshall which was solid but they barely beat lowly Southern Miss in double overtime, a game they trailed pretty much the whole second half.
The Blazers are the pre-season favorites and have clutch players in Chris Cokley ( 14ppg/7RB ), Robert Brown ( 13 ppg ) who shoots 40% from three & PG Nick Norton who get better than 5 assists per contest. All in all it's the biggest game in Murfreesboro,TN in years and I expect Middle Tennessee to be up to the challenge. I like the Blue Raiders by 7-11 points today!
Jesse Schule
Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Pick: Wisconsin
After going all the way to the NCAA Championship game last year, the Badgers are in danger of missing the tournament. They've gone on an incredible run, winning seven in a row before coming up short at Michigan State on Thursday. Now they host bottom feeders Illinois, in a must win game. They need to make a statement here, and you can expect them to come out focused from the opening tip off.
Wisconsin certainly has history on it's side, winning nine straight versus the Illini. Their last three home wins in this series have come by an average margin of 22 points. They are only asked to cover a number half that size here tonight.
Going back even further, the Illini are just 5-15-1 in the last 21 meetings, and they've failed to cover in five straight in Madison. The Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, and they've covered the spread in seven of their last eight versus BIG10 teams.
The Badgers held the Illini to just 55 points on 18-of-50 (36%) shooting in a win at Illinois earlier this season. Expect a similar story here tonight, with the home team winning in a rout!
Brandon Lee
Jazz vs. Blazers
Play: Jazz +3½
This line is going to appear like a gift from the books with Portland laying just 3.5-points at home against the Jazz, but don't let the small line fool you. Whenever something looks this obvious, it's a wise move to look the other way and that's exactly what I'm doing. This is a HUGE letdown spot for Portland off a shocking 32-point home win against the Warriors. They simply aren't going to be able to bring that same intensity against the Jazz, who they beat by 14-points at home earlier this season as an identical 3.5-point favorite. Utah has been playing extremely well of late, winning 8 of their last 10, and I look for them to pull off the upset on the road.
Wunderdog
Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo
Pick: Pittsburgh -125
Pittsburgh is getting its act together, on a 6-3-1 run, improving on offense, and still strong on defense. They come off a loss to Tampa Bay last night, but Pittsburgh had a whopping 39-20 shot advantage. The Penguins are sitting in the Eastern Conference's last wild-card spot and are 37-17 on the road against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Rebuilding Buffalo is #27 in the NHL in goals scored and #17 in goals allowed. The Sabres are on a 15-36 run at home and are 10-41 against a team with a winning record. The Penguins have averaged 4.14 goals during a seven-game winning streak over the Sabres, part of a stretch of 16 wins in their last 20 games against Buffalo. And the Penguins are 42-19-4 in the last 65 meetings.
The Sports Boss
Jazz at Blazers
Play: Jazz
In some late night West Coast NBA action we are backing the visiting Utah Jazz plus the points against the homestanding Portland Trailblazers. You know how well and how the Blazers likely partied after last nights big win over Golden State which should set up rival Utah well to pull off the upset here - especially in a series where the road team has traditionally played well. Backing Utah plus the points tonight.
Harry Bondi
PORTLAND (-3.5) over Utah
While most every team in the NBA is rested and healthy right now because of a week-long All Star break, the Jazz, because of a re-scheduled game due to a winter storm in January, are playing their third game in four nights tonight, including two road games and one all the way on the East Coast vs. Washington. The Trailblazers, meanwhile, are playing just their second game in 10 days, and are fresh off a confidence-building blowout win at home over Golden State, and that's even better news since the team is 24-10 ATS the game after winning as an underdog the last three years. Portland has also dominated this series at home, winning 31 of the last 45 meetings on this floor, and it gets another easy win tonight against a tired Jazz team.
Bruce Marshall
Toronto -7.5
Marc Gasol's season-ending foot injury has a variety of worrying implications for Memphis, which also stands to lose a first-round pick that would revert to Cleveland if Griz miss the playoffs. As for Toronto, its focus is finally getting beyond the first round of the playoffs, which is why GM Masai Ujiri was working hard (to no avail) at the deadline add an extra weapon at the "four" spot since Luis Scola's unexpected shooting accuracy (43.2% from beyond the arc!) is going to be bonus if it endures. Since Ujiri kept his powder dry at the deadline, he's looking to instead ride his All-Star Lowry-DeRozan backcourt and to getting DeMarre Carroll back to full health in time for the postseason. As for this matchup, a Gasol-less Memphis does not have us enthused.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is the Mustangs of SMU to name the score against the Pirates of East Carolina.
The Pirates are just 10-16 on the season, and bring a 5-game losing streak into this contest in Dallas.
SMU is 21-4 on the season, and two of those losses have come over their last 3 games. My feeling is the Mustangs are about ready to right the ship and get a blowout cooking for the home fans.
SMU has won the past 3 series meetings, and 5 of the last 7 overall. Included is a 79-55 rout at East Carolina earlier this year, as the Ponies have now covered in 2 of the last 3 showdowns.
Look for SMU to take out the frustrations of their loss at UConn on Thursday with a solid home blowout today.
Take SMU.
1* SMU
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 18-8 runwith complimentary plays: Detroit at VALPARAISO (-14)
The STORYLINE in this game today - Valparaiso already clinched a share of the Horizon League regular season title for the fourth time in five years with Friday’s win over Oakland. Now the Crusaders can take the next step and secure the outright title with a win today against Detroit at the Athletics-Recreation Center. I'm laying the points with my free play, as I think Valpo is the play here.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor is incentive. The Crusaders, who have won their final home game of the season in five of the last six years, would clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the Horizon League tournament with a win today against the Titans. It would also give the Crusaders a double bye in next month’s tournament and all but assure Valparaiso, at the very least, an NIT bid next month.
BOTTOM LINE is - It's also Senior Night for the Crusaders, so they'll be looking to send seniors Keith Carter, E. Victor Nickerson, Darien Walker and Vashil Fernandez out in style, as they play their final game at the ARC. Lay the home chalk here.
5* VALPARAISO
Chris Jordan
Wichita State doesn't care about the rankings. The Shockers know it's all about which team shows up to play in March. But they also know that the more impressive the wins, the better the seed they may get. And so they need to take advantage of teams like this, and win big.
I see this game the same way the UNC-Miami game ended up. I was wrong on that total, as it soared because the Tar Heels roasted the Hurricanes. I think the same happens here.
Wichita State defeated Indiana State 82-62 in Wichita on Jan. 17, and while I don't expect it to hang with the Shockers for a win, I think we're going to see Wichita State force an uptempo game and we'll gradually build this total.
The Shockers will get into the 80s again, while Indiana State will help us get there by creeping close to 70.
4* Wichita St/Indiana St Over
Brad Wilton
Sunday's comp play winner will be to take the Cavaliers as the small underdog at Oklahoma City.
Didn't like what I saw from OKC on Friday when they let Indiana come back on them at home in a 101-98 loss. Perhaps the Thunder got caught peeking ahead to this showdown game, but perhaps the Thunder just doesn't have the killer instinct they need to close out games against the better teams in the league.
Whatever the case, I like the points as Cleveland is 4-1 against the spread this season when listed as the road underdog, and the Cavaliers did defeat Oklahoma City in the first meeting of the season, 104-100 back on December 17th.
The Cavs own a 5-1 spread mark the last 6 series meetings, so jump on Cleveland plus the small impost to take care of business.
2* CLEVELAND
Matt Fargo
Wisconsin -11½
Illinois picked up its fourth conference win on Tuesday but it came against Rutgers, its second win over the Scarlet Knights this season, which is 0-14 in the Big Ten while a third win came against 1-13 Minnesota. Two of those actually took overtime on top of it which makes the fourth conference victory against Purdue by 14 points remains a mystery. Overall, the Illini are just 2-5 on the road and going back, they are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight up win. Wisconsin meanwhile is coming off a 12-point loss at Michigan St. which snapped a seven-game winning streak that included impressive victories against Michigan St. in the first meeting as well as Indiana and Maryland. The Badgers are just 11-5 at home this season but have won five of their last six here with the lone loss coming against Maryland by just three points on a last second three-pointer. They are 9-3-1 ATS in the conference this season and while they are currently projected to make the NCAA Tournament, a loss like this could be detrimental. Look for a big bounce back winner from Wisconsin.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls -7
We're getting the Chicago Bulls at a discount tonight at home against the lowly Los Angeles Lakers. The betting public wants nothing to do with the Bulls right now since they're without Jimmy Butler.
They also don't want anything to do with the Bulls considering they have lost five of their last six coming in. But they just beat the Raptors by 10 at home last time out, and they should make easy work of these Lakers tonight.
Los Angeles has lost four straight and 14 of its last 16 games overall. The Lakers are 11-45 on the season and 5-26 in road games, getting outscoring by 11.3 points per game in the process. The Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Chicago.
SPORTS WAGERS
Chicago -108 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild are coming home after a three-game sweep in Western Canada over Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. Combined, that trio has gone 4-18 over their last 22 games combined. In other words, the timing for Minnesota’s hiring of John Torchetti was perfect to get him off to a great start but things are likely to take a turn for the worse here. Minnesota scored five goals in each of the three games on their Western trip and it marked the first time in franchise history they were able to do that. This is an offensively challenged group to begin with so that outburst in Western Canada is nothing but fool’s gold, as they faced three weak defenses and three weak goaltenders. Furthermore, this is the first time the Wild will play outdoors and that’s an adjustment that the Blackhawks are very familiar with, as no team in the NHL has played outdoors more than Chicago.
Aside from all the distractions the host has to deal with for an outdoor game, the Wild players also have to deal with media and a ton of ticket requests from friends and family. For the visitor, it’s much more routine playing outdoors, as they go from the hotel to the stadium, just like they do in every road game. For the host, the distractions are numerous. It is very noteworthy that in 16 outdoor games since the Stadium Series was introduced, the road team is a whopping 12-3-1.
Chicago figures to come in with a bit of a chip on their shoulders, as they are 0-2 against Minnesota this season. Furthermore, the Blackhawks are rested and they have several warm shooters at the moment too. Chicago has scored five goals or more in four of its past seven games but unlike Minnesota’s outburst, the ‘Hawks outburst is legit. You don’t need us to inform you of the firepower that the Blackhawks bring to every game. The Blackhawks PP is on fire too, having scored seven goals in their last 11 opportunities. The Blackhawks are a true power that figures to be focused and jacked up to go. Minnesota figures to be jacked up as well with 60,000 fans expected but the problem for them is that they are the host of this event and their new coach is taking a huge step up in class from Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver. Let’s not forget that Minnesota has the NHL’s worst record since January 1 and it wasn’t all because of Mike Yeo.
CAROLINA -105 over Tampa Bay
OT included. The Bolts played in Pittsburgh yesterday and won 4-2 while being outshot 39-20. On Thursday, Tampa hosted the gutless Jets and won 6-5 after being outshot, 41-26. Not only were the Lightning outplayed on their own ice by Winnipeg but they blew a three-goal lead in that game and allowed four third period goals. Prior to that, the Lightning had lost four of five with only victory occurring against Nashville in a game they trailed 3-2 with 30 seconds remaining. Although the Bolts are on a very misleading two-game winning streak, we could easily be talking about a team on a seven-game losing streak because that’s how poor they are performing right now. A poor effort versus the Hurricanes is not likely going to get it done and even a strong one may not.
Carolina remains one of the most undervalued teams in the NHL. They get very little public support because so few watch them and they just don’t get the coverage that most others do. However, since Day 1, we have been insisting how good this team is and now we’re insisting that they’re getting better. The Hurricanes would have one of the NHL’s best records had their goaltending held up this season but it has not. Eddie Lack has been awful all year while Cam Ward was awful for the first three months. However, Ward has found his game and looks much stronger lately. He’s looking like the Cam Ward of old and that makes the Hurricanes one of the NHL’s toughest outs. Carolina is coming off a near flawless 5-2 victory over the then red-hot Sharks. They dominated puck possession and they dominated the shots on net in that game, 37-24. That’s not uncommon for the ‘Canes, as they often dominate both those areas. Carolina leads the league in face-offs won and in taking the fewest minor penalties. They are also second in shots allowed per game. The Hurricanes have recent wins over the Islanders, Chicago and San Jose among others and they have picked up points in eight of their past 10 games. They have also put themselves in the thick of the playoff race and now sit just two points back of Pittsburgh for the final slot. The New Jersey Devils won Stanley Cups playing the style that Carolina plays only this edition of the 'Canes has perfected that style even more. If the Hurricanes goaltending holds up, they’ll win this game too because they are the most fundamentally sound team in the entire league while the Bolts have become sloppy and/or lost the passion they played with all of last season.
BUFFALO +120 over Pittsburgh
OT included. If you're a frequent reader of this space then seeing the Buffalo Sabres on our board should be of no surprise. They are a young, hard-working and well-coached team. It's been a long time since anyone talked about the Sabres in a positive light, as they have missed the playoffs four straight years and it can take a while to get that stink off. The Sabres are headed in the right direction and we’ll continue to back them as long as they provide us with value. Today, they’ll host the first game of a nationally televised double header on NBC. The Sabres are playing pretty good hockey right now, winning three of their last four. They're scoring goals with 14 lamp lighters in those victories. The Sabres young stars are contributing too, as Jack Eichel has a four-game point streak going and Sam Reinhart has scored two goals in the last three games to take the team lead. Sabres bench boss Dan Bylsma took the hit for the Penguins recent playoff failures and now Blysma gets the Penguins in his own barn for the first time. The players are always aware of how much it means to the coach to defeat the team that let him go and these players absolutely love Blysma so everyone will be jacked up in support of him. The Penguins have owned this series by winning seven straight, which just gives the Sabres a little more motivation to come up with a strong effort this afternoon.
The Penguins need no introductions. Even with Evgeni Malkin out they are still loaded with big name talent. Crosby, Kessel, Letang, Kunitz and Fleury are all staples in this league and it's hard to remember a time when the Pens haven't been in the discussion as a Stanley Cup contender. They've made the playoffs nine straight years and they have arguably the league's most popular player in Sidney Crosby. We always preach about playing value and after nearly a decade of dominance, you will still be paying a premium to back this popular intruder. On the ice, Pittsburgh’s already weak defense group will be without Ben Lovejoy today as he left yesterday’s 4-2 loss to Tampa with an upper body injury. The Pens were also without Marc Andre Fleury between the pipes, as he was a late scratch because of an illness. Jeff Zatkoff did not have a very good outing in his place, giving up those four goals on just 20 shots. We’re not sure who will be in net for this one but it does not concern us. What we know for sure is that Buffalo outshot the Pens in Pittsburgh, 53-29 in the only other meeting this season. Buffalo deserved better than a 4-3 loss but it’s just an example of how badly these Sabres want to beat Pittsburgh for their beloved coach. The Sabres should have won the first time but now they have a hot goaltender going and the true desire to finish the deal this time around. We trust they’ll do exactly that.
ANAHEIM -1½ +161 over Calgary
OT included. The Ducks return home from a long and grueling seven-game road trip that started on February 8th in Pittsburgh and ended this past Thursday in Vancouver. All they did was pick up 11 out of a possible 14 points and that’s after losing the opener. One of those victories on the trip was in Calgary, where the Ducks scored six times in a 6-4 victory. Trust us when we tell you that Anaheim’s win in Calgary was their second weakest performance of the trip. They had little energy and got outplayed but buried a bunch of shots past Jonas Hiller. There is always a danger of playing a team returning home from a trip but it does not concern us here, as the Pond will be packed and the Ducks figure to feed off what should be an electric atmosphere with a house full of appreciative fans. You see, the Ducks are 18-4-2 since the Christmas and we highly doubt that Jonas Hiller and his .889 save percentage is going to get in the way of the Ducks rewarding their fans with another victory. The Ducks have scored four goals or more a remarkable 10 times over their past 16 games and three goals or more 14 times over that span.
Brad Treliving is the Flames GM but Brian Burke (Flames President of Hockey Operations, whatever that means) was in Toronto last night scouting the Maple Leafs and Flyers. If you are a fan of the Flames, you had better hope that Treliving does not take Burke’s advice on anything. The Flames sending Burke to scout players for the deadline is a disaster waiting to happen. When Burke arrived in Toronto he immediately picked up Martin Gerber off waivers on March 4th, 2008. Gerber went 6-5, and the Leafs went 9-9 overall with three additional points for getting to O.T after the pickup and ended up being slotted in the 7th pick for the draft when they otherwise could have easily picked fourth. Burke should have just let the team he didn’t even build lose and it cost the Leafs Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Had the Leafs lost just one more game, OEL would have been theirs. The Maple leafs had five first rounders in the 2009 draft. They picked up Nazem Kadri, but went on to acquire Peter Holland, Tim Erixon, Phillipe Paradis and Carter Ashton. That summer Burke also acquired Colton Orr, Exelby, Brent and Gustavsson, all who would be non-factors in anything but Burkie wasn’t done, as he sent Anton Stralman, Colin Stuart and a seventh round pick to the Flames for Wayne Primeau and a second round pick.
Burke kicked off the 2009-2010 season in style, making a blockbuster trade for Phil Kessel, famously sending draft picks that would end up being Dougie Hamilton and Tyler Seguin. Today, the Leafs have none of those players but they do have Nick Spalding, who scored his first goal in 60 games last night against Philly. Burke has an ego as big as Donald Trump’s. That’s bad when you combine his ego with his complete inability to recognize talent. Burkie made a bunch more bone-headed moves that set the Leafs back five years or more.
This has nothing to do with the game tonight but in reality it does, as Calgary regresses and the deadline is close. We can assure that whatever trade the Flames make it will benefit the other team because Burke is involved. Calgary is coming off a 5-2 win over the reeling Canucks but the Ducks are an entirely different animal than Vancouver. Prior to defeating the Canucks, Calgary had surrendered 23 goals over its previous five games and at least four goals against in all of them. The Flames are 9-18 on the road this year with their goal differential away from the Saddledome being the third worst in the league. The Flames have the NHL’s worst goaltenders, they are not going to make the playoffs and they are about to enter a gunfight with a dull blade.