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(9) Ohio State (20-7, 13-14 ATS) at (11) Michigan State (21-6, 10-16 ATS)
Michigan State goes after its third straight victory when it welcomes Ohio State to the Breslin Events Center in East Lansing, Mich., for a Big Ten battle between ranked squads.
Ohio State’s six-game winning streak came to an end Wednesday as it fell 60-57 to Purdue as a 3½-point home favorite. However, the Buckeyes have won four straight Big Ten road games (3-1 ATS) after losing their first three conference roadies (0-3 ATS). For the season, Ohio State is just 5-6 away from home (4-7 ATS), and even though it shoots 45.1 percent and hold opponents to 42.3 percent on the highway, the Buckeyes get outscored 64.9 points per game to 64 ppg.
The Spartans started out the conference season with nine straight victories – part of a 10-game overall winning streak – then dropped their next three in a row, including a 76-64 home loss to Purdue on Feb. 9, their first defeat of the year at the Breslin Events Center. However, Michigan State has since rebounded with a pair of impressive road wins at Penn State (65-54 as a 6½-point favorite last Saturday) and Indiana (72-58 as an 11½-point chalk on Tuesday). Those two spread-covers come on the heels of a 1-7 ATS slump.
Michigan State is 13-1 at the Breslin Center, but even though they’re outscoring visitors by 14 ppg (76-62), they’re just 4-9 ATS as a host.
The Spartans swept the regular-season series from Ohio State last year, winning 67-58 at home (failing to cover as an 11-point underdog) and 78-67 on the road (easily cashing as a three-point road chalk). However, the Buckeyes got revenge in the Big Ten tournament, rolling 82-70 as an eight-point underdog. OSU has cashed in five of the last seven meetings, all as an underdog, going 3-0 ATS in its last three trips to East Lansing. In fact, the ‘dog has covered in seven of the last 10 series clashes, while the road team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight.
The Buckeyes have covered in five of their last seven against winning teams, but they’re just 3-5 ATS in their last eight overall and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on Sunday. Michigan State has cashed in six straight Sunday outings, but otherwise Tom Izzo’s team is in pointspread funks of 3-7 overall (all in the Big Ten), 0-4 at home, 0-5 versus teams with a winning record and 2-5 after a SU victory.
Ohio State has stayed under the total in four straight games overall, 15 of 22 on the road, 19 of 26 on Sunday and 11 of 14 after a non-cover. Similarly, the Spartans are on “under” runs of 9-4 overall, 18-7 in the Big Ten, 8-2 after a SU victory and 7-0 after a spread-cover. Conversely, the over has hit in three of the last four meetings after a 4-1-1 “under” run in this series
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
(3) Villanova (22-3, 16-8 ATS) at (19) Pittsburgh (20-6, 13-8-2 ATS)
The Wildcats return to the court for the first time since suffering their first home loss of the season as they travel to Petersen Events Center looking to upend resurgent Pitt.
Villanova went into Monday’s game against UConn as a 9½-point home favorite but got clipped 84-75, going down for the first time this season on their own court. The Wildcats have followed up an 11-game winning streak – including nine straight victories to start the Big East campaign – by splitting their last four contests (1-1 at home, 1-1 on the road). Also, they’re 1-4 ATS in their last five after cashing in 15 of their first 19 contests.
In its most recent road game, Villanova knocked off West Virginia 82-75 as a 5½-point pup, improving to 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS in road/neutral-site affairs. The Wildcats average 84.4 ppg on the highway (48.5 percent shooting) but surrender 79.6 ppg (42.8 percent).
The Panthers kicked off the conference season 4-0 – part of a seven-game overall win streak (5-0-1 ATS in lined games) – but then hit the skids in dropping four of their next five, all in the Big East. They’ve since rebounded to win four in a row, going 3-0 SU and ATS in Big East contests. That includes Thursday’s 58-51 upset win at Marquette as a six-point road underdog.
Pitt has won 35 of its last 36 at home, the only blemish being a 74-66 loss to Georgetown as a one-point favorite back on Jan. 20. This year, the Panthers are 13-1 SU and 6-4-2 ATS at Petersen Events Center, putting up 71.3 ppg (47.6 percent shooting) and limiting opponents to just 58.1 ppg (37 percent).
The Wildcats defeated Pitt twice last year, winning 67-57 as a 3½-point home underdog in the regular season, then gutting out a 78-76 victory as a two-point underdog in the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament, a win that sent Villanova to the Final Four. Prior to last year, the Panthers had been on a 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS roll in this rivalry. The underdog has covered in five of the last six meetings (including four outright upsets), but the host has gotten the money in eight of the last 10.
The SU winner is 13-3 ATS in Villanova’s last 16 contests, 6-0 ATS in Pitt’s last six lined games and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this rivalry.
With the exception of their current 1-4 ATS slump, the Wildcats are on pointspread upticks of 6-1 on the highway, 8-1 on Sunday, 5-2 after a SU loss and 11-5 versus winning teams. Pitt is riding ATS hot streaks of 11-3-1 overall, 7-1-2 at home, 9-3-1 in Big East action, 12-3-2 versus winning teams, 7-2-1 after a SU victory and 5-2-1 on Sunday.
Villanova is on “over” runs of 15-4 overall, 5-0 on the road, 9-3 in the Big East, 4-1 on Sunday, 7-1 after a SU defeat and 5-0 after a non-cover. Also, Pitt has topped the total in four of five at home, four of five on Sunday and four of five after a SU win. However, prior to last year’s NCAA Tournament meeting, the previous six clashes between these schools stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Virginia Tech (21-4, 10-9 ATS) at (6) Duke (22-4, 16-8-1 ATS)
Virginia Tech, which has won five in a row (all in the ACC), faces its stiffest challenge of the season when it invades Cameron Indoor Stadium for a conference battle with the sixth-ranked Blue Devils.
The Hokies are coming off a pair of narrow home wins over Virginia (61-55 as a 6½-point chalk last Saturday) and Wake Forest (87-83 as a 5½-point favorite on Tuesday). The two non-covers follow a three-game ATS surge for Virginia Tech, which has now won eight of its last nine games overall, going 7-1 SU (4-4 ATS) in ACC play during this stretch. All four of the Hokies’ defeats this year have come away from home, where they’re 7-4 SU and 6-4 ATS, outscoring teams by just 2.2 ppg (69-66.8).
Like Virginia Tech, Duke rolls into this contest on a five-game winning streak (3-0-1 ATS), with three of those victories coming on the road. That includes Wednesday’s 81-74 come-from-behind win at Miami, as the Blue Devils erased a 12-point halftime deficit by outscoring the Hurricanes 56-37 over the final 20 minutes. Still, they were only able to push as a seven-point road favorite. During its five-game winning streak, Duke is outscoring opponents by 12 ppg (74.8-62.8), and it is actually shooting better from beyond the three-point arc (45.4 percent) as opposed to overall (40.9 percent). Take away a 12-point non-conference loss at Georgetown, and Mike Krzyzewksi’s club has won seven straight ACC games (5-1-1 ATS).
Duke has been dominant at Cameron Indoor this season, winning 14 straight games by an average of 27.6 ppg (88.7-61.1) while outshooting visitors by a 49.3 percent to 38.9 percent margin (43.6 percent to 28.4 percent from three-point range). Going back to last year, the Blue Devils have won 16 in a row at home (11-4 ATS).
Duke is on a 3-0 SU and ATS run against Virginia Tech, with two of those victories coming in Blacksburg and the other being last year’s 69-44 rout at home as a 17-point favorite. The SU winner has covered the spread in seven of eight meetings since the Hokies joined the ACC in 2004-05, including the last five in a row. The favorite – which was Duke –cashed in four of those five, but the visitor is 5-1 ATS in the last six.
Va-Tech has failed to cover in five of its last six on Sunday, but it is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the highway and 4-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover. The Blue Devils are on pointspread tears of 3-1-1 overall, 13-3 at home, 5-1-1 in ACC action and 5-0 on Sunday.
The under is 4-1 in the Hokies’ last five contests overall and 25-10 in Duke’s last 35 ACC games. However, Virginia Tech has topped the total in 15 of 22 after a SU win and eight of 12 on Sunday. Finally, the under was the play in last year’s two meetings between these teams after five of the first six conference clashes went over the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DUKE
NBA
Cleveland (43-13, 28-27-1 ATS) at Orlando (37-19, 28-27-1 ATS)
The Cavaliers, who have followed up 13-game winning streak with back-to-back losses, try to get back on track when they trek to Amway Arena in search of their third victory over the Magic this season in as many tries.
Cleveland’s 13-game run ended with Thursday’s 118-116 overtime loss to Denver as a 6½-point home favorite, and it followed that 24 hours later with a 110-93 setback at Charlotte as a 4½-point road chalk. The Cavaliers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games, a slump that follows a 6-0 spread-covering run. However, their last spread-cover came in a 115-106 rout of Orlando as a six-point home favorite on Feb. 11, which capped Cleveland’s 13-game winning streak.
Orlando came out of the All-Star break on Wednesday and destroyed Detroit 116-91 as an 11-point home favorite, but failed to build on that momentum as it lost 95-85 to the Mavericks on Friday as a seven-point home chalk, getting outscored 30-16 in the fourth quarter. The Magic are still 11-4 in their last 15 games, but just 8-7 ATS. They’ve also won eight of their last 10 at Amway Arena, going just 5-5 ATS (1-3 ATS in the last four).
In addition to pounding the Magic by nine points 10 days ago in Cleveland, the Cavaliers own a 102-93 win in Orlando as a one-point underdog that came way back on Nov. 11. Those two victories follow last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, which the Magic won in six games (5-1 ATS). Orlando, despite failing to cover in both meetings this year, is still 15-4 ATS in the last 19 series meetings, including 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes in Florida.
The Cavs’ current 1-4 ATS slump is offset by positive pointspread streaks of 17-8-1 against winning teams, 37-18 after a SU loss, 22-6 following a double-digit defeat, 10-3 on Sunday, 7-1 when playing after one day off and 4-1 against the Southeast Division.
The Magic have failed to cover in five of seven against winning teams and 36 of 52 following a double-digit home defeat, but they’re otherwise on ATS runs of 6-2 against the Eastern Conference, 4-1 against the Central Division, 4-1 after one day of rest, 4-0 following a non-cover and 4-0 on Sunday.
Cleveland carries “over” trends of 5-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 against the Eastern Conference, 3-1-1 versus the Southeast Division and 5-0 versus winning teams. However, the under is 41-15-2 in the Cavs’ last 58 Sunday contests. Meanwhile, Orlando is on “under” runs of 15-6 overall, 7-3 at home, 22-8 after a defeat, 36-15 following a non-cover, 40-18 when playing on one day of rest and 10-2 on Sunday.
Finally, going back to last year’s Eastern Conference finals series, the over has hit in the last five meetings between these teams, and four of the last five battles at Amway Arena have also cleared the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ORLANDO
Boston (35-18, 21-31-1 ATS) at Denver (36-19, 25-27-3 ATS)
The Celtics conclude a five-game Western Conference road swing when they pay their only visit of the season to the Pepsi Center to face the Nuggets.
Boston’s journey started back on Feb. 10, when it blew a second-half lead at New Orleans and fell 93-85 as a five-point favorite. The trip resumed following the All-Star break, and the Celtics have ripped off three straight wins, topping Sacramento 95-92 on Tuesday (failing to cash as a 5½-point favorite), the Lakers 87-86 on Thursday (as a 2 ½-point underdog) and Portland on Friday 96-76 (as a three-point pup). Prior to covering the spread in its last two games, Boston had been in a 2-11-1 ATS freefall.
One day after stealing a 118-116 overtime win in Cleveland as a 6½-point underdog – ending the Cavaliers’ 13-game winning streak in the process – Denver went to Washington and took a nine-point lead into the fourth quarter. But everything fell apart for the Nuggets in the final 12 minutes, as they got outscored 34-15 and lost 107-97 as a six-point underdog. Denver has been struggling with consistency, as it has split its last 10 games (4-5-1 ATS), alternating SU wins and losses in its last eight. This comes on the heels of an eight-game winning streak.
The Celtics continue to sport one of the NBA’s best road records at 20-9, but they’re just 15-14 ATS. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have won 23 of 28 home games, going only 14-13-1 ATS. They’ve followed up a nine-game home winning streak by losing two of their last three at the Pepsi Center.
Last year, Boston – in the fifth game of a six-game Western Conference road trip – went to Denver as a one-point favorite and destroyed the Nuggets 114-76, ending a four-game SU and ATS losing streak in the Mile High City. The road team took both of last year’s matchups after the host had won the previous seven in a row SU and ATS. The winner has covered the pointspread in each of the last 17 meetings.
With Friday’s victory in Portland, the Celtics have now covered in four of five against Northwest Division opponents. Other than that, they’re in ATS funks of 4-11-1 overall, 2-8-1 against the Western Conference, 3-7 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-5-1 when playing on one day of rest.
Denver is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven on Sunday and it has failed to cash in 13 of 19 after one day off. From there, though, George Karl’s club is on pointspread surges of 4-0 after a SU defeat, 7-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 against the Eastern Conference, 18-6 against the Atlantic Division and 3-1-1 versus winning teams.
Boston has stayed under the total in six straight games overall, five in a row on the road, six straight against the Western Conference and 11 of 15 on Sunday, and the under is 39-19-1 in its last 59 games following a double-digit win. The under is also 5-1 in Denver’s last six games when playing on one day of rest. Conversely, the over is 4-1 in the Celtics’ five against the Northwest Division, 7-2 in Denver’s last nine against the Eastern Conference and 6-2 in the last eight Celtics-Nuggets eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER
Utah (35-19, 33-18-3 ATS) at Portland (32-25, 30-26-1 ATS)
The streaking Jazz attempt to complete a perfect four-game road trip when they return to the Rose Garden for a Northwest Division showdown against the inconsistent Trail Blazers.
Utah is 3-0 SU and ATS on its current road trip, knocking off Houston on Tuesday (104-95 as a three-point favorite), New Orleans on Wednesday (98-90 as a four-point favorite) and Golden State on Friday (100-98 as a five-point chalk). The Jazz are the hottest team in the NBA, having won 17 of their last 19 games while going 15-2-3 ATS. They’ve also won and covered six straight road games, the last five as a favorite.
The Jazz have scored 100 points or more 16 times during their 17-2 run, and they’ve held 17 of their last 21 opponents under the century mark. Over its last five games, Jerry Sloan’s squad is yielding just 93.8 ppg (41.6 percent shooting).
Portland’s modest two-game SU and ATS uptick ended in ugly fashion Friday, as it fell 96-76 to Boston as a three-point home favorite, even though All-Star point guard Brandon Roy played 34 minutes, his most extensive in more than five weeks as he had missed 14 of the previous 16 games with a hamstring injury. The Blazers are just 5-7 SU and 6-6 ATS in their last 12 games, including 3-5 SU and ATS at home.
During Utah’s 17-2 hot streak and Portland’s 5-7 slump, these teams have met twice – once in each team’s gym – and the Jazz took both games by scores of 106-95 (as a 2½-point road chalk) and 118-105 (as a 7½-point home favorite). Throw in a 108-92 rout as a five-point home chalk on Nov. 28 in Salt Lake City, and Utah has won and covered all three meetings this season.
Despite last month’s result in Portland, the home team is still 9-1 SU and ATS in the last 10 series clashes, with Utah going 1-6 ATS in its last seven trips to the Rose Garden. Also, the favorite has cashed in each of the last nine meetings and is 18-6 ATS in the last 24, while the SU winner is 14-0 ATS in the last 14.
The Jazz are on a slew of positive pointspread streaks, including 19-6-3 overall, 15-5-1 on the road (6-0 last six), 20-7-2 as a favorite, 5-0 as a road chalk, 12-2-2 against the Western Conference, 2-0-2 against divisional rivals, 8-1 when playing on one day of rest and 18-6-3 versus opponents with a winning record.
Portland is on ATS upticks of 31-14 as a home underdog, 22-10 as a home pup of less than five points, 4-1 on Sunday and 8-2 after a SU defeat. On the flip side, the Blazers have failed to cover in four of their last five against Northwest Division opponents and nine of 13 after a double-digit home loss.
Utah is on “under” runs of 4-0 overall (all in the Western Conference and all as a favorite) and 13-6 as a road chalk of less than five points, while Portland has stayed low in five of six overall, five of six at home, four straight as an underdog and four of five as a home pup. Conversely, the “over” is on stretches of 5-0 for the Jazz against winning teams, 4-1 for the Jazz on Sunday, 13-3 for the Jazz versus Northwest Division foes, 4-1 for Portland in divisional battles and 5-0 for Portland against winning teams.
Finally, the over has cashed in five consecutive meetings between these rivals.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
DUNKEL INDEX
Cleveland at Orlando
The Cavaliers look to build on their 6-0-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Cleveland is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Cavaliers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2)
Game 801-802: Cleveland at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.558; Orlando 125.353
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 1; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 195
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2); Over
Game 803-804: Boston at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.215; Denver 127.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 11 1/2; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 4; 198
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-4); Under
Game 805-806: San Antonio at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Detroit 115.484
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 187
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 186
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-5); Over
Game 807-808: Memphis at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 115.375; New Jersey 109.686
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 5 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-4 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Houston at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 119.475; New Orleans 121.047
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+2); Under
Game 811-812: Oklahoma City at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.784; Minnesota 118.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 6 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: Atlanta at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 120.105; Golden State 114.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5); Under
Game 815-816: Sacramento at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.264; Phoenix 122.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 213
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 11 1/2; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+11 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Utah at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 122.837; Portland 123.195
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 1; 192
Dunkel Pick: Portland (+1); Over
NCAAB
Villanova at Pittsburgh
The Wildcats look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Villanova is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-2)
Game 819-820: Villanova at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 75.950; Pittsburgh 69.324
Dunkel Line: Villanova by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Villanova by 2
Dunkel Pick: Villanova (-2)
Game 821-822: Dayton at Duquesne
Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 67.446; Duquesne 65.001
Dunkel Line: Dayton by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Dayton by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duquesne (+4 1/2)
Game 823-824: Northwestern at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.370; Wisconsin 79.451
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 17
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 12
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-12)
Game 825-826: Marquette at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 66.729; Cincinnati 69.586
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1 1/2)
Game 827-828: St. Louis at Massachusetts
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 55.680; Massachusetts 60.037
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-1)
Game 829-830: St. Bonaventure at LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: St. Bonaventure 51.992; LaSalle 55.796
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 4
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Bonaventure (+4 1/2)
Game 831-832: Arizona State at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 66.100; Arizona 61.932
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 4
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 1
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-1)
Game 833-834: Virginia Tech at Duke
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 67.252; Duke 82.146
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15
Vegas Line: Duke by 13
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-13)
Game 835-835: Ohio State at Michigan State
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 70.268; Michigan State 74.584
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 4
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+4 1/2)
Triple Threat Sports
Play Portland over Utah
This is Utah's fourth road game in six days and they are catching a Portland team in an angry mood after a bad loss in their last outing. Blazers are 40-15 SU in their last 55 games after a SU loss, and 4-1 SU as series host. Sort of surprised the home team is the dog here, and they get the call.
Marc Lawrence
Marquette at Cincinnati
Prediction: Marquette
When the Golden Eagles battle the Bearcats in Cincinnati Sunday afternoon in this Big East battle at the Fifth Third Arena they will do so knowing that Marquette is 7-1 ATS as a visitor in this series. Off an upset hoe loss to Pittsburgh earlier this week, look for the Eagles to send Cincinnati to 0-5-1 ATS at home in revenge affairs today.
BIG AL
Saint Louis at Massachusetts
Prediction: Massachusetts
The Billikens come into Sunday's game off five straight wins, including the last four as underdogs. But College Basketball teams have been dreadful on the road off three or more upset wins, if their last victory was by 4+ points, and they are not an underdog of 15+ points. In that situation, our 'play-against' teams are 28-62 ATS since 1990. With St. Louis in off a 62-57 win as a 3-point underdog to Rhode Island, and installed as a 1.5-point underdog at UMass, the Billikens fall squarely within our negative 28-62 system. The Minutemen have also been playing good ball, and have covered four straight games heading into this Atlantic 10 affair. St. Louis is 0-6 off back-to-back home wins, and we'll fade Rick Majerus' men today.
Sam Martin
Ohio State at Michigan State
We’re fading the Buckeyes after their nine-game conference winning streak was snapped earlier this week at home against Purdue. That was a tough loss for the Buckeyes, who started the game flat, and nearly came back all the way, but had a game-tying three-pointer hit the rim and fall off as time expired. That is a crushing blow to Ohio State, who now have to try to regroup and play a tough Michigan State team on the road. Spartans have lost only once this year on this court, and while they are always a good rebounding team, we really like their rebounding ability against a zone defense Ohio State loves to play. Michigan State owns the boards, and takes this one late!
Play on: Michigan State
Frank Jordan
Villanova vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Villanova -2
Villanova is tearing it up at 22-3, but going into Pitt and facing a number 21 ranked team will not be an easy task to complete. Pittsburgh 14-1 on the year at home and have won each of their last four games. Will Villanova coming off a surprising loss at home to UCONN they will have some fire in their bellies and the look of determination in their eyes to get the job done to show the Big East is theirs for the taking. Play Villanova
John Ryan
Virginia Tech vs. Duke
Play: Duke -13
3* graded play on Duke as they take on Virginia Tech set to start at 7:30 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Duke will win this game by a minimum of 14 points. Simply said Duke is better at all of the facets of the game and we do not see even one part of the game siding with V-tech. The model shows that Duke will hit between 31 and 37% of 3-point shots attempted and will hold V-tech to less than 40% shooting. In past games against similar opponents and results, Duke is 7-1 ATS this season ad 17-6 ATS the past 3 seasons when the hit 3-pointers at a 31 to 37% clip. They are also 8-1 ATS this season and 16-5 ATS the past 3 seasons when they hold their opponent to less than 40% shooting. Va-tech is a strong defensive team as defined by many of their season team statistics, but Duke plays their best against similar teams. Note that Duke is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games versus good defensive teams allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take Duke.
DAVID CHAN
Canada @ United States
Pick: United States +1.5
Home ice is worth something, but it’s not worth 1.5 goals. Both these teams pushed past Norway in the third period; both made heavy lifting out of beating Switzerland. Going into the Tournament the Canadians were the team to beat. That still might be the case. But until Canada blows the doors off quality opposition, it cannot be asked to cover much more than the fifty cents that home ice yields.
Looking at shots on goal, Canada’s margin over Switzerland (47-23) was more impressive than the USA’s (23-15). The Norway numbers were harder to separate: Canada outshot Norway 42-15 while the USA dominated 39-11. In both those comparisons, though, the USA yielded fewer shots. That’s one thing to look for when seeking out a live dog.
Canada wins this game 60 percent of the time, but let the number do its job: one-third of those wins will be by a single goal. That makes Canada only 40% against the number, and the USA an attractive play.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Duke Blue Devils -13
Duke has been sensational at home this season, going a perfect 14-0 SU and 10-3 ATS in lined games. Duke is coming off a down performance at Miami so it will not be lacking any motivation this evening as it looks to send a message to one of its closest competitors in the league. Duke is the best team in the ACC this season by far. We watched the Blue Devils send a message to Maryland with a 21-point home win recently and we expect them to make another statement here. When VA Tech visited Duke last season, the Blue Devils handed the Hokies a 25-point defeat. VA Tech's claim to fame is its defense, but Duke is 8-1 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams allowing 64 or fewer points per game over the last 3 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 81.4 to 57.3. Our Free Play goes on Duke today.
JIM FEIST
OHIO STATE / MICHIGAN STATE
TAKE: OHIO STATE
Michigan State has spent a lot of time on the road, considering today's contest against Ohio State will be just the team's second home court contest in February. MSU just completed a stretch that saw the club play six of eight games on the road. Turnovers have been an issue for the Spartans, in fact MSU is averaging 16.0 turnovers in their six losses. Ohio State (20-7) trails Michigan state by one game in conference play as the Spartans have 11 wins in Big 10 play compared to Ohio State's 10. Head coach Thad Matta has lead Ohio State to at least 20 wins in each of his 10 seasons. In addition, Matta teams have won at least 10 Big 10 regular season games in each of hte last five years. The Buckeyes lost last time out to Purdue, 60-57, as it was the club's first loss in the last seven games and only their second in 11. The defense has been very good, hodling four straight opponents to 60 points or less. In fact, Ohio State is 19th in the country in points allowed (60.19). Matta teams have gotten the money against Michigan State, covering the last five of seven including the last four of five as a dog at Michigan State. The Buckeyes good defense should force Michigan State into turnover here again and that has been a Achilles's heal for the Spartans. Take the points on Sunday with the underdog Buckeyes.
SPORTS WAGERS
Czech Republic +1 –1.10 over Russia
The Russians look like anything but the power they were supposed to be. They didn’t look sharp in its opener against the Norwegians and they looked way out of sync against the Slovaks. Yeah, they ran into a hot goaltender but the Russians have no excuse for losing to that team and there is no denying the fact that they have to be feeling a little skittish about this one. Instead of getting traffic in front of the net the Russians are all looking to get open to let it go and it’s just not working. In that 2-1 loss to the Slovaks, Ilya Bryzgalov had to make numerous big saves to keep it tied. Meanwhile, the Czechs look very solid. They beat the Slovaks 3-1 and they put away Belarus in the games first six minutes on Friday by jumping out to a quick 3-0 lead. Talent wise, they’re the second best team here but it’s not the best team that wins it’s the team that’s playing the best and right now the Czechs are playing much better than the Russians. There is still a lot of NHL talent on the Czechs and Tomas Vokoun is capable of a huge game. Based on what has transpired thus far, the Czechs have to be considered a strong play getting a goal, as they can surely win this outright. Play: Czech Republic +1 –1.10 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
USA +2.50 over Canada
This one pretty much falls into the same category as the one above. The Canadians were overvalued coming into the tournament and they haven’t done anything to prove they’re an overwhelming favorite to win it all. Against Switzerland and Norway the Canadians have not outscored the opposition in three of the six periods played. They just squeaked by the Swiss by the hair on their chinney-chin-chins and had they lost it would have set the country into a tailspin. Canada’s play thus far has raised a lot of questions and don’t think for a second that the players aren’t feeling the pinch. Now for the first time they’ll play a team that can score some goals and thus, Brodeur or Luongo is going to have to come up big and frankly, based on their play this season, neither can be trusted to do so. The Americans played the same two teams the Canadians have and beat both of them but was not issued a scare by the Swiss. Ryan Miller in net gives the Americans a great chance to win this one but that’s not all the US has to offer. They also have some great goal scorers and guys that are willing to play tough and crate traffic in front of the net. This is a team that was put together well while the Canadians were not and there is no doubt whatsoever that this one will be very close and the Americans have just as good a chance to win as the Canadians. Big overlay. Play: USA +2.50 (Risking 2 units).
EZWINNERS
New Jersey Nets +5
After a very strong start to the season that had Memphis thinking playoffs, the Grizzlies are now a struggling team. Memphis has lost eight out of their last ten games and they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games as a favorite. The Nets are having a terrible season and have only won five games all year. One of those five wins did come against the Grizzlies, and they are a solid 8-3-1 against the spread in their last 12 games as an underdog. The Grizzlies should not be laying points on the road. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Ohio State vs. Michigan State
Thad Matta (Ohio State) and Tom Izzo (Michigan State) have met (11) times in their careers as head coaches of two of the Big Ten Conferences premier basketball programs with MSU leading (6-5) in the (11) meetings to date. One constant these head coaches share is stifling defensive philosophies and this Big Ten rivalry at the Breslin Center on Sunday should feature just that as a lot is on the line in pursuit of the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State has gone Under the Total at a (19-7) ATS rate in Sunday action and (15) of their past (22) road games have gone Under as well. The Spartans return most of the Final Four team but lost the services of Big Man Goran Suton and we expect the Spartans to struggle with the Buckeyes inside strength that will give the Green & White a bit of a problem. MSU is Under the Total in (18) of (25) Big Ten games and (9-4) ATS their past (13) games overall. Defense wins championships and that is just what is on the line here. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday selection in Big Ten Conference action is Buckeyes - Spartans Under the Total.
Chuck O'Brien
Virginia Tech at DUKE (-13)
Take Duke and lay the points against Virginia Tech in Sunday’s college basketball action.
Both teams have won five straight games coming into this one, and both have near identical records (Duke is 22-4; Virginia Tech is 21-4). But what’s most important here is what the Blue Devils have done on their intimidating home court: They’ve won all 14 home games, and only one team came within single digits of Duke (80-71 loss). Including that nine-point win, Duke is averaging 88.7 ppg at home and holding opponents to just 61.1 – that’s an average margin of victory of more than 27 ppg.
Despite laying inflated pointspreads at home, the Blue Devils have still cashed in 10 of 13 games, including going 6-0 ATS when hosting ACC opponents. Those six conference home wins were by margins of 21 points (Clemson), 20 points (Boston College), 20 points (Wake Forest), 14 points (Florida State), 19 points (Georgia Tech) and 21 points (Maryland). Not only is that impressive for consistency reasons, but five of those six aforementioned teams have been ranked at some point this season!
Virginia Tech is 7-4 on the road, but 2-3 in ACC road games (one win came in overtime at Virginia; the other came at N.C. State, the worst team in the league). Last year, when the Hokies went to Duke, here was the result: 69-44. In fact, the Blue Devils are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three.
4♦ DUKE