Bobby Maxwell
Boston at DENVER (-4)
Hit two FREE winners on Saturday as both Utah and Texas Tech got within the number in their respective games to improve my comp record to 55-23-1 with my last 79 selections. Today I have an NBA winner coming on the Nuggets as they host the Celtics.
The Nuggets are back inside the Pepsi Center in Denver for the first time in the second half of the season and they need a big game to erase that ugly memory from Friday when they lost at Washington 107-97 as six-point road favorites.
That was the classic “sandwich” game for Denver who had just beating the Cavaliers in overtime in Cleveland the night before and was looking forward to coming home to face the Celtics. But how good did the Nuggets look in Cleveland on Thursday, getting contributions from everyone on the roster with five players in double digits, including Carmelo Anthony’s 40-point performance. The Nuggets outrebounded the Cavs and turned the ball over just five times in 53 minutes.
Boston has been busy since the break, winning three straight games on the West coast, including Friday’s 96-76 blowout of Portland, cashing as a three-point underdog. This is the last game for the Celtics before heading home and there might not be the complete focus on this one, plus you’ve got some tired legs that have played three games in four nights.
In this series, the home team has won seven of the last nine and the winner seemingly has to get to triple-digits as the winner has hit 100 in nine of the last 10 meetings. Boston is just 1-4 ATS in their last five visits to the Mile High City.
The Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-8-1 against the Western Conference, 1-5-1 after getting a day off, 4-11-1 overall and 3-7 after a straight-up win. Meanwhile, Denver is on ATS runs of 5-1 at home against teams with winning records, 18-6 against Atlantic Division teams and 7-1 after a non-cover.
Lay the chalk and play the home team Nuggets today as they want to showcase their talents for the nation to see. Play Denver.
4♦ DENVER
Chris Jordan
Boston (+4) at DENVER
Now that you've read Big Bob's write-up, let me give you the winner in this one.
As tempting as it might be to side with the Nuggets in this one, I am sticking with the red-hot Celtics, who have had a night off and shouldn't be too affected by the Mile High altitude.
Since opening this five-game road trip with a loss in New Orleans, the Celtics have won three straight on the West coast, knocking off the Kings, Lakers and Trail Blazers.
And since the C's came into Denver last season, just around the same date (Feb. 23, 2009) and won 114-76 - the worst home loss for the Nuggets since Feb. 2, 1998 - without Kevin Garnett, I believe the surging beast of the East could very well steal this one outright.
Garnett, who dealt with injuries earlier this season, is seemingly finding his groove right now, and has increased his scoring output in every game this trip. He made his first six shots and scored 16 points in a 96-76 win at Portland on Friday.
Ray Allen, who is averaging 23.5 on 53.2 percent shooting in four games against Denver since joining the Celtics, has also had the shooters' touch on this trip, averaging 22.5 points on 65.5 percent shooting in his last two games.
Boston is on ATS runs of 10-2 when catching points in this range, 4-1 versus the Northwest and 43-18 as an underdog. On the flipside, the Nuggets are on ATS slides of 6-13 when in on one day's rest, 5-16 when laying points in this range, 1-4 when installed as the favorite and 1-6 on Sundays.
Grab the points here.
1♦ CELTICS
Jeff Benton
How about that 5♦ free-play winner on Oklahoma State over Baylor on Saturday? I’m now on runs of 25-11, 15-5 and 12-4 and 6-1 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday, I’ll shift to the NBA and play the Nuggets minus the points against Boston.
Yes, the Celtics have come out of the All-Star break and three straight wins, all on the road. But look at the competition: the crappy Kings (and Boston barely held on for a three-point victory), the Lakers (who didn’t have Kobe Bryant, and Boston barely held on for a one-point victory) and the Blazers (Boston won that impressively by 20 points, but the Blazers have been struggling and point guard Brandon Roy still isn’t 100 percent).
Regardless, this is the Celtics’ fourth road game since Tuesday, and if you follow the NBA, you know four road games in six nights is a tough task for any team, let alone one with all the miles on the legs of Boston’s veterans.
As for the Nuggets, they’re coming off that disappointing 10-point loss at Washington, when they completely imploded in the fourth quarter. But the previous day, Denver knocked off LeBron and the Cavs in Cleveland, and they’ve defeated the Spurs, Lakers, Mavericks and Cavs (4-0 ATS) since Jan. 31. One more reasons to love the Nuggets: They closed out 2009 with three straight losses, but haven’t lost consecutive games since (a span of 23 contests). They’ve also had consecutive non-covers just twice in those 23 games.
Finally, even though the Celtics went to Denver last year and stunned the Nuggets 114-76, they had been 0-4 SU and ATS in their previous four trips to Denver, losing by 21, 10, 11 and 6 points. In fact, the home team is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine meetings.
6♦ DENVER NUGGETS
Stephen Nover
I'm playing Orlando over Cleveland in NBA action.
This is a huge statement game for the Magic.
Orlando has a chip on its shoulders fed up that the Cavaliers already seem destined and anointed to meet the Lakers in the finals.
Yes, Cleveland helped itself at the trade deadline stealing Antawn Jamison from the Wizards. But this is just Jamison's second game with the Cavaliers and he's struggling to find his way alongside LeBron James, Shaquille O'Neal and Co.
Jamison couldn't have had a worst debut missing all 12 of his shots from the field in Cleveland's 110-93 loss to the Bobcats on Friday. Keep in mind, too, that point guard Mo Williams just recently returned to the Cavaliers lineup after being out a month with a shoulder injury.
The Cavaliers haven't been playing good defense. Their past five opponents are shooting a combined 51 percent from the floor. The Cavaliers have allowed more than 100 points in all but one of those five games.
Until losing to the Nuggets and Bobcats in their last two games, the Cavaliers had put together a 13-game winning streak. However, eight of those victories were achieved against the Heat twice, Timberwolves, Pacers, Clippers, Grizzlies, Knicks and Nets.
This isn't to say the Cavaliers aren't a very good team because they are. They do stand an excellent chance of winning the Eastern Conference.
But this isn't the right time to back the Cavaliers. The Magic have double revenge against the Cavaliers. They'll be sky-high at home for this nationally televised matchup. The Cavaliers are playing for the third time in four days and are not helped by a very early start time.
3♦ MAGIC
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Ohio State Buckeyes. Everyone in the world is going to be on Michigan State today because it would appear they have more to play for with Purdue's win yesterday. I disagree. I think the Buckeyes have every bit as much to play for today. If they lose, they drop into a third place tie with both Wisconsin and Illinois in the Big 10 with only a few more regular season games to go. With a win they stay a game behind Purdue for first place and MSU will drop into a second-place tie with the Bucks. So please don't tell me the Spartans have more to play for... this is a HUGE game for both teams. And let's also remember something... the road team in this series has covered 8 of the last 10 while the underdog is 7-3 ATS over that same span. This game should come right down to the wire, and I'll be glad to back the team catching the points today... that's Ohio State.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Brett Atkins
I'm 5-2 with my last seven free plays and today I'm scoring a comp winner for you in the Pac-10 as I go with Arizona State on the road at rival Arizona.
This has been a strange rivalry lately, as a clearly better Arizona State team got drilled at home back on Jan. 23. Now they get to go to Tucson and exact some revenge.
Arizona State had won five in a row before that loss in January, cashing in four of those five. Last year they went to Arizona and won 53-47 as a 2 ½-point favorite and have actually won two straight in Tucson.
The Sun Devils have kicked up the defensive intensity lately, limiting teams to 37.3 percent shooting over the last five. I like that kind of defense. Play Arizona State to get this rivalry winner.
3♦ ARIZONA STATE
Joel Tyson
Easy Saturday comp play winner on Clemson crushing Virginia.
On to Sunday, and since Golden State's wins these days are few and far between - just 2-11 straight up last 13 - I will side with the Hawks to pick up a road win and cover.
The Hawks just lost on Friday at Pheonix, and do conclude this road swing with a stop in Utah, so this is the game they must nail down.
Atlanta has been able to win and cover 5 of the last 7 in this East-West series, and they are a positive 15-11 against the spread on the road this season.
Off that road loss in the Valley of the Sun, and with a tough road stop in Utah tomorrow night, expect the Hawks to handle their business tonight against the 15-39 Warriors.
4♦ ATLANTA
Tom Freese
Sacramento at Phoenix
Phoenix is led in scoring and rebounding by Amare Stoudermire and 21.4 points and 8.7 rebounds a game. Point Guard Steve Nash scores 17.7 points and 11.1 assists a game. Shooting guard Jason Richardson scores 14.6 points a game. Center Channing Frye scores 11.6 points a game. Grant Hill scores 11.2 points a night. The Suns score 109.3 points a game and they allow 106.8 points a game. NBA Double Digit favorites are 47-81 ATS this year. The Suns are 0-4 ATS their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Sacramento point guard Tyreke Evans scores 20.2 points and 5.3 assists a game. Center Jason Thompson scores 12.8 points and 8.8 rebounds a game. Small forward Omri Casspi scores 12.2 points a game. Point guard Beno Udirh scores 11.9 points a game. Center Spencer Hawes scores 10.4 points a game. The Kings are 10-3-2 ATS their last 15 road games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60% and they are 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 games as road underdogs of 11 or more points. PLAY ON SACRAMENTO +
Matt Rivers
Arizona State at Arizona
There’s not much rocket science here with this one. Arizona State was absolutely whacked about a month ago at home by Arizona and now travels to Tucson and will get their revenge.
Herb Sendek’s team is the definite superior team even if the Wildcats have been better than most believed they would be. The Sun Devils lost a ton after least season as both Harden and Pendergraph were bona fide studs but there is still a lot of game left on this team.
Derek Glasser is your typical Chris Corchiani guy who can run the point (not as good as Corch but a similar mold) and guys like Abbott, Kuksiks and Boateng are quality as well.
ASU just played back-to-back ferocious defensive games against Oregon State and Oregon limiting those teams to a combined shooting percentage in the low 30’s. Sendek always preaches that end of the court and things right now appear to be going fairly smoothly as the Devils have won three of four on the road and certainly will be geeked for this game against their in-state rival.
I give Sean Miller a ton of credit because the Wildcats are clearly better now than they were earlier in the season when they needed a ridiculous late shot to beat lowly Lipscomb. This team was a mess for the first 5 or 6 weeks but now are at least somewhat formidable. It was actually the upset win at Tempe which seemed to help the confidence of this team as they stepped things up a ton but recently the ‘Cats have regressed a bit losing three of four.
I do expect a tight game but in revenge and being the better team should have the visitors get their revenge.
Pick: Arizona State
Matt Fargo
Arizona St. at Arizona
Prediction: Arizona
Neither team has played in a week so we have two rested teams playing a huge game for Pac Ten regular season title implications. Arizona had a great run going with four straight wins before going on a 1-3 run over its last four games. This included two road losses as well as a home loss against Oregon St. which was inexcusable. Still the Wildcats are 9-4 at home this season and after an uneven start this young team is coming on under the direction of new head coach Sean Miller who I consider one of the best young coaches in the game. This is a revenge game for Arizona St. who lost at home against the Wildcats by 19 points and that was definitely a shocker. However I do not think that should make the Sun Devils the favorite here especially with them owning a 3-4 record in true road games. Arizona St. is a solid team and it needs this win to remain just a half-game behind California for first place in the conference. This is a huge game for the Wildcats as well though as a win puts them just a game back of the Golden Bears. Their next game is in Berkley so first place could be on the line this coming Thursday but it will be meaningless unless they hold serve on their home floor. 3* Arizona Wildcats
Hollywood Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks
The Atlanta Hawks (34-19) must have left their offensive in the lockerroom at halftime on Friday as they managed only 30 second-half points in Phoenix on their way to an 88-80 loss to the Suns. The Hawks shot under 40% overall in this game. But the Golden State Warriors (15-39) may be just what the doctor ordered as their pourous defense allows 48% shooting which produces 110.8 PPG. Atlanta should bounce back here as they have covered the spread in eleven of their last fifteen games coming off a loss. The Hawks take care of business against the weaker teams in the league as they have covered their last four games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. And Atlanta has covered four of their last five road games as a favorite in the 5-10.5 point range. The Warriors are, once again, a mess as they have now dropped eleven of their last thirteen games. Atlanta should bounce back to dominate this game as they refind their offensive touch with plenty of open looks against the "defense is optional" Golden State Warriors. Lay the points with Atlanta.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
As hard as it may be to believe, we're calling for the Cavs to lose three straight. After heading into the Break on a 13-game win streak, the team made a trade for Antawn Jamison, which was supposed to solidify its status as the team to beat in the Eastern Conference. So far, they're 0-2 with an OT loss at home to the Nuggets, followed by their worst loss of the season to Charlotte on Friday. Jamison was 0 for 12 in his team debut in that game. The Magic, who eliminated Cleveland from the playoffs last year and have consistently given them trouble, have double in-season revenge. In both previous meetings, Orlando was playing in the second night of back to backs.
Play on: Orlando
LARRY NESS
Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets
PICK: Denver Nuggets -4.5
Boston went just 5-8 heading into the All Star break (32-18) but has returned to win the first three games of its four-game West Coast swing, including an 87-86 win at Staples Center vs the Lakers this past Thursday. The Nuggets own an impressive win at LA this month as well, winning 126-113 at Staples back on Feb 5. Prior to Boston winning in LA a few days ago, the Nuggets ended Cleveland's 13-game winning streak (longest in the NBA this season) by beating the Cavs 118-116 (OT), in the first game of TNT's doubleheader. Anthony scored 40 points, including the winning basket in the final seconds of OT (LeBron had 43-13-15). Anthony (29.3-6.4) and Billups (19.7-6.1 APG) are the heart and soul of the Nuggets but this team is pretty talented. Nene (14.0-7.9), Martin (12.2-9.6) and Afflalo (9.0) round out the starting lineup with Smith (14.7), Lawson (9.3-3.4 APG) and Andersen (6,.1-6.3) providing outstanding play off the bench. Chris Andersen went to the locker room while holding his back in the fourth quarter against the Cavs and didn't return, then sat out the next night at Washington (Nuggets lost by 10) and is listed as questionable for this one with back spasms. Boston has a familiar starting five with its "Big Three" plus Rondo (14.0-4.4-9.7) and Perkins (11.1-8.2). Wallace (10.0-4.2) was the team's major off-season acquisition and now Nate Robinson will be the team's 'sparkplug' off the bench rather than House. However, Doc Rivers is not expecting Robinson to make his debut until Tuesday night when the Celtics return home to face the Knicks. These teams haven't met this year but in last season's meeting in Denver, the Celtics beat the Nuggets 114-76 without KG. The 38-point margin of defeat tied for the second-biggest home loss since Denver joined the NBA in 1976. The Nuggets lead the Jazz by just a half-game in the Northwest division and a win here vs the Celtics (added to their Feb wins at the Lakers and Cavs) will be a nice boost to the team's confidence. Lay the points with the home team.
SEAN MURPHY
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
PICK: Under 192
All three matchups between these two teams have played over the total this season, and as a result, we’re seeing a total north of 190 here tonight.
That number is high in my opinion, especially when you consider the recent changes to the Blazers lineup along with their recent offensive performance.
Portland was one of the big players at the trade deadline, receiving a major defensive upgrade in the form of Marcus Camby in exchange for Steve Blake and Travis Outlaw.
The problem with inserting Camby into the lineup is that he disrupts the offensive chemistry. Also keep in mind, the Blazers just got Brandon Roy back after an extended absence. It’s not unusual to see a team struggle to round back into form with such a shake-up.
The Jazz have been away from home for a while now, and have had plenty of success recently.
They’ve gotten stronger defensively as the trip has gone on. Utah has really done a number on its last two opponents, holding them to under 40% shooting combined. In their first game following the All-Star break they came up big at the defensive end when they had to, holding the Rockets to just four points over the game’s final 4:41.
We can expect the Blazers to ratchet up the defensive intensity tonight after getting blown out by the Jazz in Utah earlier this month. This is a team that got away from its identity last month and struggled, but has since returned to form, playing hard-nosed defense. Portland has held five of its last six opponents under 100 points.
These two teams are more than familiar with one another with this being their fourth meeting this season. The offensive has flowed freely in those games, but given the situation tonight, I expect to see more of a defensive tone. This number is a few points too high. Take the under.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Northwestern Wildcats +12.5
Northwestern may only be 4-5 on the road this season, but it has been very competitive as it is 7-2 ATS in those games. Off a bad loss to Penn State, and out for revenge after losing to Wisconsin earlier this season, I look for the Wildcats to keep this one within the number. Northwestern is 12-3 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game this season, winning these games by an average score of 68.1 to 67.9, while Wisconsin is just 6-16 ATS versus good teams outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons, losing these games by an average score of 58.7 to 58.9. We'll take the points.