Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February 24

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Michigan State at Ohio State
The Spartans look to build on their 8-1 ATS record in their last 9 games at Ohio State. Michigan State is the pick (+3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2)

Game 819-820: Pittsburgh at St. John's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 72.985; St. John's 65.933
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 7; 129
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 5 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-5 1/2); Over

Game 821-822: Michigan State at Ohio State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 75.413; Ohio State 71.688
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 3 1/2; 125
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 3 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+3 1/2); Under

Game 823-824: Boston College at Duke (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 61.671; Duke 76.494
Dunkel Line: Duke by 15
Vegas Line: Duke by 17
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+17)

Game 825-826: Cincinnati at Notre Dame (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 68.765; Notre Dame 65.435
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 120
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 3 1/2; 124
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+3 1/2); Under

Game 827-828: LaSalle at Rhode Island (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 64.443; Rhode Island 59.355
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 5
Vegas Line: LaSalle by 7
Dunkel Pick: Rhode Island (+7)

Game 829-830: Georgia Tech at Virginia (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 60.336; Virginia 68.111
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 8
Vegas Line: Virginia by 10
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+10)

Game 831-832: UCLA at USC (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UCLA 65.972; USC 62.892
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 3; 146
Vegas Line: UCLA by 1 1/2; 142
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-1 1/2); Over

Game 833-834: Temple at Charlotte (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 61.378; Charlotte 62.179
Dunkel Line: Charlotte by 1
Vegas Line: Temple by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+1 1/2)

Game 835-836: Northwestern at Purdue (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 58.490; Purdue 62.062
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Purdue by 7
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (+7)

Game 837-838: Illinois at Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 67.328; Michigan 74.552
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 12; 141
Vegas Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-9 1/2); Over

Game 839-840: Florida State at Virginia Tech (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 57.593; Virginia Tech 58.262
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1; 137
Vegas Line: Florida State by 1 1/2; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+1); Under

Game 841-842: Old Dominion at Hofstra (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 47.325; Hofstra 50.368
Dunkel Line: Hofstra by 3
Vegas Line: Old Dominion by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hofstra (+3 1/2)

Game 843-844: Radford at Siena (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Radford 46.421; Siena 45.204
Dunkel Line: Radford by 1
Vegas Line: Siena by 1
Dunkel Pick: Radford (+1)

Game 845-846: South Dakota at Montana State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota 43.536; Montana State 43.233
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Montana State by 4
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota (+4)

Game 851-852: Long Island at Wagner (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Island 50.897; Wagner 54.755
Dunkel Line: Wagner by 4
Vegas Line: Wagner by 5
Dunkel Pick: Long Island (+5)

David ChanFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg vs. New JerseyFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: New JerseyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Situational Analysis
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Winnipeg's achilles heel has always been its play on the road, and it's had an especially difficult time whenever playing in New Jersey, having dropped five straight in this series on the road. Most recently the Jets are coming off 5-3 loss at Philadelphia yesterday.
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The Devils are 6-1-2 at home this year. After losing 5-1 to the Capitals on Saturday, venerable goaltender Martin Brodeur is expected back between the pipes. Brodeur is 5-1-1 with a 1.84 GAA over his last seven outings, and has posted a minuscule 1.57 GAA in winning his last five starts vs. the Jets franchise.
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Statistical Analysis
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Note that Winnipeg is just 3-5 (-1.2 units) when playing against a team with a winning record.
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Note that New Jersey is 4-2 (+1.8 units) when playing against a team with a losing record.
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Pick Analysis
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The Jets are mired in an 0 for 21 slump on the power-play right now. Their penalty kill has been equally as inept of late, allowing three goals on six opportunities in the loss to the Flyers. I believe the home side takes full advantage of this tired Winnipeg team. Lay the price!

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas MavericksREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Dallas MavericksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These were once the kings of the western conference, now they are both struggling. The Lakers have been inconsistent all season long, though they have won two straight games. However, they still are just 1-5 ATS their last six games. Meanwhile, Dallas seems to be playing much better since Dirk Nowitzki returned. The Mavs are 12-6 S/U the last 18 and 16-3 ATS the last 19. The Mavs are also scoring in bunches, eclipsing the 100 point mark in six straight games and 16 of the last 18. Lakers pounded the Mavs here in Dallas back in November, but you can't count that contest as Nowitzki was out back then. Lakers have struggled against the Southwest division, going 4-9 ATS their last 13. Meanwhile, the Mavs have done well against the Pacific division, posting a 41-19 ATS mark their last 60 tries. Mavs will be looking for some payback for that beating they took on this floor last November. Don't expect Dallas to let up on the Lakers. Take Dallas.

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Colorado vs. AnaheimFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ducks will host the Avs on Sunday night, and Colorado is coming off a loss yesterday afternoon versus the Kings. The Avs couldn't get anything going offensively, scoring just once after failing to score in regulation in their last game, a 1-0 win over the Blues.
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It's not going to get any easier for Colorado tonight, playing on the back end of a back to back, versus Anaheim team that has limited opponents to two goals or fewer in four straight games.
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Jonas Hiller has returned from injury to get back into the Ducks lineup, and he was solid in his last start, stopping 25 of 27 shots in a 3-2 win over Columbus. Hiller might struggle to hold on to his job as the starter though, as rookie Victor Fasth is 8-0 with a 1.78 GAA so far as the #2. It should be Fasth between the pipes tonight, and that's not good news for a Colorado team that has only scored once in their last two games (barring overtime and shootouts).
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The Ducks have won five in a row, and nine of their last 10, and they should be in a good spot to earn a victory against the offensively challenged Avs tonight. Colorado is still plagued by injuries to key players, and their leading scorer from last season Ryan O'Reilly remains unsigned.
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The Avs have lost nine of their last 11 visits to Anaheim, and they have seen the total go under in four straight meetings overall. Colorado has trended toward low scoring games when playing on back to back nights, with the total going under at a rate of 7-2-1 in such situations.

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Pittsburgh vs. St. John'sFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. John'sFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When looking at the Panthers’ contributions to the NBA over the years with well-known glass-sweepers like Charles Smith, Jerome Lane and DaJuan Blair, Pitt’s glorious tradition of great rebounding cannot be questioned. Along with teamwork and defense, it is also the hallmark of Jamie Dixon’s career as Panther head coach. So imagine his horror last time out when Notre Dame’s 40-25 advantage on the boards helped wipe out an early 16-point Pitt lead over the Irish and contribute to the Panthers’ second consecutive defeat. In fact, Pitt has been out-rebounded in each of its seven losses this season, surprising for a team that is ranked as the second-best team in the Big East in the rebounding margin category. Dixon needs to turn things around with the Big Dance quickly coming into view and he’ll need to do it on the road at Madison Square Garden, where the Red Storm hold the upper hand with a 7-2 SUATS advantage. On top of that, St. John’s will be looking for revenge from last year’s Big East tourney KO by the Panthers – and the Johnnies are especially prolific in such LTKO situations with a 4-1 SU and 4-0-1 ATS mark if their win percentage is over .575. Finally, Pitt finds itself in a rather dubious revenge sandwich coming off the confidence-sapping quadruple revenger versus the Irish, and a double revenger up next against South Florida. Johnnies outright in the Garden. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. John's.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Antonio vs. PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhoenixFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Spurs are coming off a 107-101 OT loss at Golden State on Friday, and I believe will suffer another setback tonight. San Antonio looked sluggish down the stretch, and shot just under 39 percent from the floor, which included going 4 of 22 from 3-point land (interestingly, San Antonio is just 10-11 ATS this year vs. poor defensive teams that allow 99 plus points per contest, and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven when playing against a team with a losing record). Phoenix will be looking to make amends for a listless 113-88 loss to the Celtics on Friday. "This is one you just want to put behind you as fast as possible,'' Phoenix forward P.J. Tucker said afterwards. One player you'll want to track is Goran Dragic who is averaging 18.3 points and 12.7 assists over his last three games (Phoenix is 29-25 in its last 54 following a loss by 10 points or more). This is definitely a revenge game for the Suns after they lost 108-99 in San Antonio on January 26th. In fact, Phoenix has lost five straight in this series. I fully expect the Suns to give this complacent Spurs team everything it can handle, keeping it a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston College vs. DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DukeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When Duke was nearly ambushed at Chestnut Hill on Feb. 10, it was in a classic “sandwich” situation off a revenge battle vs. NC State and with bitter rival North Carolina on deck Not so in the rematch, as the Blue Devils seek to rehabilitate their case for a top regional seed in the fast-approaching Big Dance. The smallish Eagles still appear a poor fundamental matchup against Blue Devil C Mason Plumlee (19 & 10 first meeting; 17.6 ppg this season), and they lack the defensive presence on the perimeter to slow the explosive Duke backcourt led by G Seth Curry. BC has also consistently lost touch away from home this season as lack of reliable scoring options other than F Ryan Anderson has proven a hindrance for Steve Donahue's troops.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Northwestern +6½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Purdue is 4-11 ATS against teams holding opponents to 42% or less shooting from the field. The Northwestern Wildcats may not be having a great season, but it is not from a lack of defense. They have held opponents to 61.9 points per game on the road and an average of 41.9% shooting overall this season.
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Always play on a team that has failed to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games like Northwestern in a matchup involving two teams that are winning 40-49% of their games on the season. This system is 54-23 (70%) ATS over the last five seasons.
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Northwestern beat Purdue by 5 points earlier this season. They are playing on three days of rest which is just the right number to stay sharp, but not be rundown. The Boilermakers have averaged 17 turnovers in their last two games compared to 10.5 from Northwestern. This should be a close game between two evenly matched teams and the value play is taking the points.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Ohio State -3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tom Izzo will be telling his players they can't let Indiana beat them twice, but that's easier said than done after a heartbreaking loss to the top-ranked Hoosiers. Even if Michigan State doesn't suffer a letdown, it will have a hard time leaving Columbus with a win. The Buckeyes are 14-2 on their home floor and will be hungry to avenge a three-point loss in the season's first meeting. The Buckeyes enter with a ton of confidence after completing mopping the floor with Minnesota. It has been wise to back the Buckeyes at home when they're beaming with confidence as they are 9-2 ATS in home games after a blowout win of 20 points or more over the last 2 seasons. They are a reliable 76-54 ATS in all games as a home favorite or pickem under Thad Matta. It is also worth noting that Michigan State is a soft 15-29 ATS as a road underdog of six points or less or pickem under Izzo. They have lost these games by an average of 5.7 points. Bet the Buckeyes.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Temple at NC CharlotteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TempleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte has a solid record and I am sure they are going to be all out to get revenge today as the 49ers host Temple. But matchup stats tell the story here. Charlotte cannot take care of the ball. This team is dead last in the A-10 in turnovers per possession. Meanwhile, the Owls are the most protective possession team in the entire league on percentage. If I'm going get likely extra possessions with Temple, I'm in. I also like the fact that Charlotte just cannot his threes at all, which could be a killer late if that's what's needed. The downer here is that it's revenge for the hosts from a very close loss in the prior meeting, and the Owls are traveling off a crucial win over Big Five rival La Salle. But the big key to me is in the numbers, and that's why I will be backing Temple as today's free opinion.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cleveland +13FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami is playing great. I acknowledge that. But this is an excellent spot for an improving and motivated Cavaliers squad to cover what I see is an inflated number.
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The Heat just finished a perfect 4-0 road trip last night at Philadelphia. They are returning home - with all of the Southern Miami distractions - without rest. This marks Miami's fourth game in five days. The Heat don't have a strong bench and could be missing Mike Miller again.
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Cleveland is playing well. The Cavaliers have covered six of their last eight. They, too, played last night on the road rolling past Orlando, 118-94. It was the Cavaliers' most lopsided victory of the season. Cleveland coach Byron Scott was able to rest his starters the entire fourth quarter.
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It was the seventh time in the last eight chances the Cavaliers have covered versus an Eastern Conference team.
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Cleveland still has a chip on its shoulders about LeBron James departing to Miami. This should ensure a full effort. The Cavaliers historically have played the Heat tough in Miami covering during six of their last eight visits. The Heat just nipped the Cavaliers by two during the first meeting this season.

Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia 76ers +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I'm not ready to trust the Knicks, who are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games, laying this many points. The 76ers were kicked by Miami yesterday but are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Plus, they are on a 52-30 ATS run as an underdog of 10 or more points and a 48-25 ATS run as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The road team is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings, and the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Look for these trends to continue.

JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte +1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Charlotte @ home vs a Temple team that is a 2 player hap hazard ball club.... No Respect here for the home team and we feel an over lay off that Big 5 season series win 82-74 home win over La Salle on Thursday night.... Yes K Wyatt is a stud..but now they take the show to the home town Halton Arena (18-7, A-10: 6-5 Niners), They have had a huge huge edges on the Defensive/ Glass and a 8 day lay off ... last team to have the rock wins..Power Rated @ Niners - 1.444 points

Tony GeorgeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Philadelphia 76ers +10½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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No Way the Knicks who are on a epic losing streak and playing terrrible defense should be laying this type of number to anyone. Too many points here and I like the Dog in this one to make a game of it. Mello has not been scoring lights out and as Mello goes, so goes the the Kinicks.