Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday February, 25

Marc Lawrence

Cincinnati at South Florida
Prediction: South Florida

When the Bulls host the Bearcats in a pivotal Big East battle in Tampa early Sunday USF will take the court with revenge on its mind from being knocked out of the conference tourney by Cincinnati last season, a loss that ended an 8-0 ATS series win skein by the Bulls. Meanwhile the Bearcats check in off a win over Louisville knowing they are 1-4 SU and ATS away after the Cardinals, while also having a revenger up next against Marquette. With that look for the Bull to improve to 7-1 SU and ATS at home with revenge this season here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on South Florida.

Rob Vinciletti

Oregon vs. Oregon State
Play: Oregon State -3.5

Oregon St is better than in previous seasons and has won 10 of 14 at home this season and already has a big win at Oregon earlier in the year. The Beavers are 7-1 straight up and to the spread as a home favorite of 3 or less and 7-2 ats off 3+ losses. They have a full week of rest, a role in which they have covered 4 of the last 5 in. Oregon is an anemic 3-14 straight up with home loss revenge and 2-6 vs teams who score 77 or more in the 2nd half over the last 3 seasons. Even worse is their 5-14 road record when the posted total is 150 to 155. Finally Oregon has lost and failed to cover 3 of the last 4 times as a road dog of 3 or less. Look for Oregon St to get the win and cover.

Ben Burns

Canucks @ Stars
PICK: Over 5

I won with the Canucks to go "under" the total on Friday. That proved to be a fairly easy winner, as the final score was 2-1. However, that was vs. New Jersey and the O/U line was 5.5. I expect a considerably higher-scoring affair here. Yet, the O/U line has fallen from 5.5 to five. While we do have to lay a little extra juice to play at five, I still feel that's providing us with very fair line value.

Looking at the last dozen meetings between these teams and we find that they ALL had O/U lines of 5.5. Note that NINE of those 12 games produced at least five combined goals, including each of the last five. Those five games produced an average of 6.4 combined goals, most recently a 5-2 Vancouver victory on 2/19.

Even with the low-scoring game at NJ, three of the Canucks' last five games have still finished above the number, each of those producing a minimum of seven combined goals. Meanwhile, seven of the Stars' last 11 games have produced a minimum of five goals.

The "over" is 12-5-8 the last 25 times that the Canucks played a road game with an O/U line of five, including 3-0-5 their last eight in that situation. Consider the "Over 5."

Jim Feist

North Texas vs Denver
Pick: North Texas

Final regular season game for both these Sun Belt clubs on Sunday. North Texas is 16-12 on the season and Denver is 20-8. North Texas already has a bye in the first round of the Sun Belt tournament. The Mean Green can be fourth or fifth seed in the tournament depending on today's game. A win over Denver and they grab the No 4 slot and will face Denver in the conference tournament. A loss and they will be No 5 and face La Tech. The Mean Green has done well against Denver, winning seven of the last eight meetings. North Texas beat Denver at the Super Pit earlier this season, 75-74 in OT. The Mean Green has been very good defensively of late, holding their last three opponents to under 33% from the field. North Texas has been great for bettors, going 13-1 ATS in their last 14 games. Moreover, on the road, the Mean Green is an amazing 10-2 ATS. I really don't see any reason Denver is a 10 point favorite here. With NT having done so well against the Pioneers of late and covering just about every game they play, I'm taking the points with the visitor.

Vegas Experts

Chicago Blackhawks at Anaheim Ducks
Play: Anaheim Ducks

This shapes up as a very bad spot for the visiting Blackhawks as not only are they off back to back losses, including a 4-0 shutout at the hands of the Kings last night, but host Anaheim has also had two days off and enters with triple revenge. The Ducks are 10-1 SU at home w/ triple revenge while Chicago is 2-8 off a road loss by 3+ goals. This is the Hawks third game in four nights and they are just 4-11 SU this season when off back to back losses. Lay the juice

SPORTS WAGERS

MINNESOTA +130 over San Jose

If the Sharks somehow find some energy and outplay the Wild, which is highly doubtful, we still have a significant edge between the pipes with Niklas Backstrom over Antti Niemi or Thomas Greiss. Niemi started in Nashville last night and was pulled after allowing three goals. San Jose lost 6-2. Now this physically and mentally drained team will play the final game of a grueling nine-game trip less than 24 hours after getting whacked in Music City. San Jose will play its fifth game in seven nights, third game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs. The Sharkies have won twice on this trip in eight tries. They beat the reeling Caps and were lucky to beat the sinking Maple Leafs. They finally return home on Tuesday and play the Flyers. In the last six games on this trip, they've allowed five goals or more in half of them. The Lightning and Jackets combined to score 11 goals against them. The Sharks goaltending is a mess, the defense is an even bigger mess and losing is a lot more draining than winning. As a road favorite in this spot, the Sharks offer up nothing but grief. We'd talk about the Wild if it were relevant but it's not, as this is all about taking back some weight against an extremely fragile guest in an extremely vulnerable spot. Play: Minnesota +128 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Islanders +133 over OTTAWA

It was just six days ago when the Senators went into Long Island and whacked the Islanders 6-0. Different circumstances here. First, the Islanders were forced to go with third string goaltender Kevin Poulin. They're a different team with Evgeni Nabokov in net and he'll be today's starter. Secondly, the Sens were in dour full days of rest in that game and came out with plenty of energy. This time they'll play the second game of back-to-backs in less than 24 hours after a rather intense affair with the Bruins in Ottawa last night. A late third period rally had the Sens within one when they pulled the goalie and just fell short. That certainly had to take something out of them. Now it's the Sens that are forced to go with their back-up goaltender in back-to-back games for the first time this year, as Craig Anderson remains out and Alex Auld played last night. They could even lean to monor league call-up, Robin Lehner here. The Islanders come in rested after a nice win over the Rangers in Nabokov's first game back from the flu. Statistically, the Islanders are superior on the power-play, the penalty kill and goals allowed. Expect a much better effort from them in response to that 6-0 humiliation they took just six days ago. Play: N.Y. Islanders +133 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Cincinnati +2½ over SOUTH FLORIDA

The Bulls are warm with four wins in their last five games. Their only loss came in their last game at Syracuse in which they lost by eight but gave the Orange a serious scare. South Florida is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games overall, 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games, and 4-0 against the spread against a team with a winning record. In other words, its stock is high and it sure doesn't hurt that they own the best defense in the Big East with just 58 points allowed per game. However, this is a matchup problem for them. The Bearcats have four players averaging double digits. They've quietly won five of six and they have some nice road wins recently too. Cinci has recent wins at Georgetown, UConn and St. John's. They have a “good” OT loss at WVU. Additionally, Big East teams have not fared well the game after playing Syracuse and USF backers really have to be concerned about the Bulls 314th ranked offense, as the Bearcats play outstanding defense too. Lastly, the Bearcats have played the tougher schedule, their have more signature wins than the Bulls and they average 10 more points per game. Play: Cincinnati +2½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Florida State +1.5

Motivated by Thursday's loss at Duke, expect Florida State to bounce back strong against a Miami team it has defeated 6 straight times by an average of 5.5 points. The Seminoles have been one of the premier defensive teams in the country in recent years, and strong defensive efforts have led to their winning streak against the Hurricanes. The Noles rank 3rd in the nation in field goal percentage defense (37.2%) and 40th in scoring defense (61.3 ppg). They have held Miami to an average of 60.5 points on 38.7% shooting during their winning streak in the series. Miami ranks 108th in field goal percentage defense (41.7%) and 177th in scoring defense (66.9 ppg). Expect FSU's "D" to once again be the difference Sunday. The Seminoles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 6.5 points or less. The Hurricanes are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings, and the road team is 10-3-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. Also, the Seminoles are 6-1-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Miami-Florida. Take FSU.

Free picks now 167-88-1 overall.

Free NCAAB release for 2/26: South Florida -2.5 over Cincinnati. The Bulls are showing excellent value against the Bearcats at home today. Note that the home team is 8-0n straight up in the last eight meetings between these two schools, winning by an average of 11.25 points per game. South Florida is playing great defense lately, holding opponents to 50.6 points/game on a very low 33 FG%. The Bulls average 67.9 points a game at home this year on a very solid 47.9% from the floor. They'll be hungry to right the ship today at home (where they are 12-1 on the season) after coming off of a tough loss on the road to Syracuse. The Bearcats are 5-1 SU in their last six, but just 3-5 ATS in their last eight. Cincinnati is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win, and only 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. South Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record, 5-0 ATS in their last five overall, and a solid 8-2 ATS in their last 10 at home. We'll lay the small number on the home chalk in this one, taking South Florida -2.5. Our free plays record is 167-88-1 all-time. Sign up today to receive the best free basketball picks on the internet at www.iseewinners.com. Thank you, and best of luck today.

WUNDERDOG

Niagara at Marist
Pick: Marist -1

Marist is 9-4 at home and playing well at the right time on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. In fact, they are 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Having a big frontcourt helps with 6-10 sophomore Adam Kemp and freshman Chavaughn Lewis. The Red Foxes trail national leader Kentucky, who blocks 9.1 shots per game, and are tied with Oklahoma State and Harvard with 4.6 rejections per game. Defense has keyed this late run as Marist's points allowed average in the past seven games is 62.3 while winning five of those seven games. They face a Niagara squad that is 5-9 on the road and riding an 0-5 ATS run. The Purple Eagles are also 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings at Marist. Play on Marist.

Jack Jones

Ohio State -9

Ohio State is showing solid value today as a single-digit home favorite over Wisconsin. I believe the Badgers are one of the most overrated teams in the country and that has certainly shown of late. This is a Badgers team that has lost to Iowa twice, and they just aren't in the same class as the Buckeyes talent-wise.

Ohio State is 23-5 on the season, and 18-1 at home this year. They are absolutely killing opponents at home this season. The Buckeyes are scoring 77.8 points and allowing 54.9 points at home this year, winning by a ridiculous 22.9 points/game. They trail the Michigan State Spartans by one game in the loss column, so they will certainly be motivated to try and win a Big Ten title.

Ohio State is 18-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, including 6-0 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. The Badgers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Buckeyes are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. Bet Ohio State Sunday.

Nelly

Oregon + over Oregon State

Oregon State won in Eugene earlier this season so this should be a huge revenge game for the Ducks, a team that is still a fringe bubble candidate for the NCAA tournament. The Ducks need a strong finish and this is win that they simply have to get. Oregon State enters this game coming off four consecutive losses and the Beavers are just 5-10 in Pac-12 play compared to an inverse 10-5 record for Oregon. Statistically Oregon State is a strong offensive team that pushes the pace of games but the defense has been rough, allowing 74 points per game on nearly 46 percent shooting and the opposing teams are shooting nearly 39 percent from 3-point range against the Beavers. The numbers don’t go down much in Corvallis and starter Eric Moreland is a question mark this game after leaving last week’s game versus California. Oregon is 8-3 ATS in road games this season and the Ducks have six S/U road wins and this is a g that Oregon simply needs more.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Ohio State/ Wisconsin Over 120.5:(Added) Google News Play. The Badger defense may be tiring a bit down the stretch, especially on the road, where they have allowed 68 ppg in their last 2 road games. Now they face an Ohio State squad that has averaged 75.2 ppg overall and 77.8 ppg at home on the year. I really feel that OSU can get at least 65 in this one. On the other side we have a Badgers squad that has put up 66 and 65 points in their last 2 games, so the offense may be opening up a bit. The Badgers do average just 59.7 ppg on the road and while OSU has allowed just 54.7 ppg at home overall, they have allowed 69.7 ppg in their last 3 games at home. I see the Badgers as having an excellent shot at 60 points in this one. This game should finish at 125 or higher, with both teams scoring in the 60's in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

North Texas +10.5 over DENVER: (Added) When I originally saw the line my inclination was to take Denver, but in going over the game I will be heading the other way. This is the last regular season game for both teams and both teams already have a first round bye in their conference tournament all sewn up so what really is their to play for, especially for the home team. Denver has been a solid team at home this year as they have gone 13-2 overall and 9-5 ATS, but North Texas has been tough to blowout this year on the road as they are 9-1-1 ATS away from home, despite the 5-7 SU mark. The Mean Green Eagles have 6 losses in the Sunbelt this year, but not one of those losses were by more than 5 points and 4 of them were by 3 or less. North Texas may not have a lot to play for either, but I don't expect them to roll over and get blown out here either. They are behind the Pioneers in the standings and would like nothing more than to make a game out of this one. I do like the play, but after the bad day yesterday I didn't make it a top play. Oh and the final nail in the coffin for this pick is that the "Sharps" are on the other side (0-4 last 2 days in Betting First Look) and we know what I feel about them. LOL

1 UNIT PLAY

Wisconsin +9.5 over OHIO STATE: (Added) The Badgers are a great road team as Bo Ryan prepares them well for their away games. Ohio State should get this game at the pace they want, but Wisconsin's offense has come around a bit lately and they should be able to score in this game. Laying nearly DD is tough when your playing against a good defensive team and I feel in the end the Badgers will come up with a few stops late to keep this one close.