Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, February 27,2011

Marc Lawrence

Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

At first glance this looks like buying a ticket into a black hole but, as Lee Corso would say, "Not so fast my friend!" A closer look shows the Cavs have come back to life after snapping their inglorious 26-game losing streak, going 4-1 ATS since. Enter the Sixers, off a same season revenge win over Detroit (3-10 ATS as favorites after the Pistons) with another same season revenge up next against Dallas. With the SIxers just 1-5 ATS on this floor when the Cavaliers show up off a SU and ATS win, look for another shocker here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Houston at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans

The Hornets have come out of the Break with back to back wins over the Clippers and Minnesota and defensively allowed just 84 PPG in the pair of wins. Here they have the benefit of catching the Rockets without rest as Houston won last night over New Jersey at home 123-108. New Orleans has already beaten their division rivals twice this season, winning twice in Houston and the Rockets are just 23-43 ATS seeking revenge for a loss where the opponent scored 100 or more points.

Rob Vinciletti

Massachusetts vs. La Salle
Play: Massachusetts +1.5

The Minutemen are 13-4 long term vs teams that allow 77 or more points per game in the second halves of the season and have been playing suffocating defense allowing 29 and 30% shooting from the field in their last 2 wins. Tonight they take on a Lasalle team that was destroyed in their last game and are 0-6 ats as a home favorite of 3 or less, 4-15 ats with revenge for a road loss and just 3-14 straight up vs winning teams. Look for U. Mass to get the cash here as a small dog.

Craig Trapp

Maryland vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -6

Revenge will be on the mind of UNC as last year Maryland gave them a real beating. This is not the same UNC team as they are now very good both on defense and rebounding. Offensively the Tar Heels struggle at times but their athleticism saves them most games. Maryland just is outmatched and UNC dominance on boards will dominate this game. UNC wins easy

LARRY NESS

Pittsburgh @ Louisville
PICK: Louisville -1

Pittsburgh is 13-2 in the Big East, 1 1/2-games up on Notre Dame and needs two wins in its last three games to ensure its first regular-season Big East crown in seven years. However, the Panthers play at Louisville on Sunday, a team which is 17-2 at home this season, including a PERFECT 7-0 in Big East play. The good news for Pitt is that Gibbs (16.4-2.9 APG) came back much sooner than expected from his injury, although he played better in the team's loss at St John’s (26 points) than he did in its win over West Va (nine points). He’s joined in the backcourt by Wanamaker (12.3-5.0-5.0) and Woodall (6.8-3.6 APG) but Louisville is one team that can match Pitt’s perimeter people. Knowles (14.3-3.7), Siva (10.2-5.0 APG), Kuric (9.8), Smith (9.3-4.6) and Marra (6.4) is one deep group. Up front, now that the 6-7 Buckles (7.2-6.5) is back to join the 6-10 Jennings (9.7-5.3) and the 6-10 Dieng (6.0-4.7), Louisville also matches up fairly well vs Pitt inside. The 6-10 McGhee (7.3-7.1) is surrounded by two excellent small forwards in the 6-6 Brown (10.8-4.4) and the 6-5 Robinson (8.8-5.2) plus the 6-9 Taylor (5.6-4.4) is solid off the bench. Here’s the key. We know “Rick’s team” loves to shoot the three, averaging a Big East-high 24.1 3-pointers per game. However, if the Cards aren’t making them, one can’t ignore the fact that Pitt ranks second in the nation in rebound margin at plus-11.3 per game. The Cards make 36.9 of their threes on the season and I’m betting, here at home, they make enough to get Louisville the win. Note that while Pitt is better-known for its defense, Pitino’s team has let just one of its last seven opponents reach 70 points and that was Notre Dame in an OT loss for the Cards at South Bend. Pitt will have to go down to the final week to clinch that Big East regular season title. Take Louisville.

Tom Stryker

Memphis @ San Antonio
PICK: San Antonio -9

San Antonio has quietly ripped off 20 straight wins inside the AT&T Center and victory No. 21 isn't far away.

Memphis enters this game off back-to-back SU and ATS victories over Minnesota and Sacramento. Respect is given to those two performances but taking on a team like the Spurs will be a difficult encore. This is an area where San Antonio has excelled too. According to my NBA database, the Spurs are a respectable 120-88 ATS provided they're matched up against an opponent that checks in off a blowout win of 10 points or more. In this role battling a foe that enters without rest, San Antonio improves to a solid 32-20 ATS including 29-14 ATS in this role priced as an underdog or a favorite of -11 or less.

In case you haven't noticed, the Spurs enter this contest off three consecutive pointspread losses. That works in their favor too. When taking the floor off three or more ATS blemishes, San Antonio owns a solid 73-48 ATS record including a stunning 24-9 ATS in this role matched up against a division foe.

As a single digit division road dog, Memphis has struggled posting a weak 29-45-1 ATS mark including just 6-15 ATS in this set matched up against a foe that checks in off two or more straight up wins.

In their quest for a franchise-record 21st straight home win, the Spurs won't be denied. Take San Antonio.

Dave Price

1 Unit on San Antonio Spurs -8.5

Can't see Memphis sticking with the Spurs without Rudy Gay and his 19.8 ppg in the lineup. The Spurs are 27-2 at home this season, where they are winning by an average of 10.5 points. The Spurs are also an impressive 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Lay the points with San Antonio.

Info Plays

3* Memphis +9

Reasons why Memphis will cover:

1) Play on road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points, hot team - having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season, as its 65-32 over the last 5 seasons.

2) Memphis is 18-9 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season, and are 14-6 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game this season.

3) San Antonio is just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Jack Jones

Providence +10

The Providence Friars are showing excellent value Sunday as a double-digit underdog to Marquette. The Eagles are way overvalued here due to their big overtime victory over Connecticut on Thursday. Providence is coming off a 1-point loss to Notre Dame, resulting in a sour taste in their mouths that they will want to get rid of Sunday. They lost that game despite 52 points from Marshon Brooks, who is arguably the best player in the country.

Providence is 20-6 ATS in road games after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread since 1997. A big reason why this line is so inflated is due to five straight losses by the Friars, but they have played four ranked teams during this stretch which includes a 2-point loss at Georgetown and a 1-point loss against Notre Dame. Marquette is fighting to stay alive for the NCAA Tournament, which is another reason for the inflation. The Friars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 90 points in their previous game. The Eagles may win Sunday, but not by double-digits. Take Providence Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +3

The T-Wolves enter Sunday's contest having lost seven straight games. They have also dropped each of the season's first two meetings with Golden State. And yet this is a solid spot to back the Wolves.

Consider that plays on home underdogs out to avenge two straight losses to an opponent, provided that foe is coming off a home defeat of 10 points or more, are an impressive 76-38 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation are only losing by an average of 0.6 points. If the opponent was favored in the game that it endured the double-digit defeat, as was the case with Golden State, this system tightens up to an impressive 58-27 ATS. And it is also worth noting that the play on team is now winning by an average of 0.1 points in this spot.

In addition, the Warriors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. Plus, coach Smart's teams are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games off a home loss by at least 10 points, losing these contests by an average score of 101.1 to 92.8. Lastly, the Warriors are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. We'll take the Wolves in the home dog role Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Maryland +6.5

Maryland has made a habit of giving UNC fits. The Terrapins have won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5 against the Heels, covering the spread in each of those 5 meetings. Plus, Maryland has been a tremendous investment on the road, where it is 13-5 ATS in all lined games the last 2 seasons. It is also worth mentioning that the Terrapins are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. Take the points here.

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Lakers -1

The Lakers have seemed to get their act together since the All-Star break as they have won three straight games since their embarrassing loss to Cleveland. The Thunder are still in a state of transition since trading away Jeff Green to the Celtics. Nate Robinson will play today for Oklahoma City, Kendric Perkins is still out due to a sprained knee. Not having Perkins is a problem for the Thunder against the size of the Lakers front line, and I think its too much for them to overcome. Lay the points.

Black Widow

1* on North Carolina -6

The North Carolina Tar Heels are quietly going under the radar this season. That's hard to believe for such a storied program, but it's the truth. UNC is 21-6 this season and they've won 8 of their last 9 games overall, with their only loss coming at Duke after they blew a 43-29 haltime lead to lose by six. The Tar Heels are 12-1 at home this season and winning by 12.8 points/game, while Maryland is 4-7 on the road. UNC is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. The Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games this season. UNC is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game after 15+ games this season. North Carolina is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games after covering 8 or more of their last 10 against the spread since 1997. Take the Tar Heels and lay the points.

Brent Brooks

Xavier, Ohio -3

Early in the season, the Musketeers were a one man show. Tu Holloway scored a bushel of points or the X-Men simply didn't win. Since then several players have improved their game (Dante Jackson, Mark Lyons, Kenny Frease) and Xavier is a much more balanced team.

Dayton has won the home game in this matchup the last two years. Looking at home court and revenge might lend a play to the Flyers here. However, Xavier has dropped all of one conference game and are playing at a very high level right now. They are winning tough road games (ie Duq) in the A10 which can't be ignored.

I look for Xavier to pull away late in the second half of this one. A 1* Free Play.