Sac Lawson
Fairfield -4 vs Niagara
Great revenge spot for the Stags from Fairfield this afternoon... Niagara pulled off a 9 point win against this team back in the beginning of January, and this morning Fairfield will have a chance at revenge on Senior Night! No doubt in my mind the fact that it's the final home game for a few of the Stags will play a roll in motivation and focus... In my estimation, the key player for this Fairfield club is Anthony Johnson, he happens to be a senior. If Anthony Johnson plays with the kind of fire I'd expect from a guy on his final home game then Niagara is in very very big trouble.
I've said this since day one... In fact, I know a lot of you guys know what I'm going to say before I say it. Niagara has NO POST PRESENCE. Huge difference between this years team and last years team. The first time these two teams met up Niagara was absolutely murdered on the glass, Fairfield grabbed offensive rebound after offensive rebound. That will not change this morning... Ryan Olander is a 7 footer, Anthony Johnson is a guy that plays like a 7 footer with how massive his wingspan is. These guys WILL get 10 offensive rebounds between them, and give Niagara fits in the paint. In that January game, Anthony Johnson went 4-15 from the field, he missed layups, hook shots, 10 foot jumpers, everything! I watched that game, actually, and I've watched Anthony Johnson many times this year, enough to know that game was an anomoly. This matchup is so favorable for him and Ryan Olander it's not even funny.
Sure, Niagara has amazing guards, and if they get hot they can make a run at just about anyone. But I'd much rather back the home team, on senior night, with a HUGE size/rebounding advantage, and revenge on their mind as well. Let's go Fairfield -4 for 1 Unit!
Derek Mancini
Milwaukee at ATLANTA (-7)
I'm going to read off some teams, and then let's discuss: Pistons, Bobcats, Knicks, Hornets, Pacers, and Heat. What do they have in common? Well, besides being in the lower echelon of the NBA, they make up the bulk of the Bucks current winning streak.
Guys, who cares if the Bucks have won 6 in a row, when all the teams they beat (except New Orleans) have losing records! Gamblers just watched the Bucks blowout the Heat in Miami, and are expecting a similar effort tonight. Sorry, but no, not without any rest, and not with Hawks coming off a tough home loss to Dallas.
Hawks have been a little shaky this month, but they're still 18-11 ATS at home this season. The home team is 7-2-1 ATS L10, and not surprisingly the favorite is 8-1-1 ATS L10 as well! With Milwaukee playing its 3rd road game in 4 nights (without rest tonight), and coming off a blowout win, I see a lot of potential for a letdown Sunday. Hawks are rested, and still fuming mad about that Dallas loss. Lay the points, as Atlanta exposes Milwaukee tonight.
3♦ ATLANTA
Stephen Nover
Phoenix at SAN ANTONIO (-4)
I've cashed on three of my last four complementary NBA selections and today I'll try to make it four out of five with the San Antonio Spurs to cover at home against the Phoenix Suns.
It's true that the Suns have been one of the hottest clubs following the All-Star break winning six of seven. The Suns, though, can never be an elite team giving up 106.2 points per game. Only Golden State allows more points per game than Phoenix.
The Suns' last four games - all victories - have come against Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Philadelphia and the Los Angeles Clippers. The victories against the Kings, 76ers and Clippers all occurred at home. Those three teams are a combined 44 games under .500.
Now the Suns are stepping up to play a desperate Spurs team that has yet to put it together like in previous years. The Spurs' history, though, is to step it up in March and April as the playoffs approach.
San Antonio has yet to make its move going just 5-5 in its last 10 games. Richard Jefferson has been a disappointment. Michael Finley and Antonio McDyess have disappeared. Tony Parker is in and out of the lineup. He missed the Spurs' last game - an embarrassing loss to Houston - because of food poisoning.
But it should be noted that this is just San Antonio's second home game since Jan. 31. The Spurs were forced to go on a hideous eight-game road trip because AT&T Center was being used for a rodeo.
The Spurs rarely lose big, nationally televised home games this late in the season. This is a circle-the-wagons type of matchup for San Antonio. Tim Duncan still is playing at a high level. Parker should be back in action. Gregg Popovich has had a full day to implement a specific game plan to slow down the Suns. The Spurs still have a top 10 defense.
Look for the Spurs to get this big win with superior defense and clutch play from Duncan. The Suns don't have a defender who can stop Duncan.
2♦ SPURS
Nelly
Milwaukee + over Atlanta
The Bucks are red hot with six consecutive wins and covers and this is a team moving towards solid playoff positioning. The Hawks meanwhile have cooled considerably from a hot early season pace and now have lost four of the last seven games Atlanta maintains one of the best ATS marks in the league, particularly at home which keeps this price high on the Hawks as home favorites. Milwaukee has been even better against the number however including 20-11 ATS on the road this season. Atlanta enters this game coming off a difficult home loss to Dallas in an overtime game on Friday and the Hawks have failed to cover in each of the last three home contests. Milwaukee has covered in ten of the last eleven road games and the Bucks have become a complete team exhibiting a great defensive presence of late. Over the last five games the Bucks are allowing just over 86 points per game and for the year the defensive numbers for Milwaukee are much stronger in comparison. The addition of John Salmons has provided a boost on both ends of the court and the transition has been smooth while taking some pressure off rookie Brandon Jennings who was asked to carry an unrealistic burden early in the season. With Andrew Bogut emerging as one of the elite centers in the game and several veteran role players fitting together nicely Milwaukee will be a tough out every night out and this should be a good situation for the underdog coming off a big win yesterday in Miami.
Tom Freese
Duke at Virginia
Play: Duke
Virginia is 14-12 overall and 5-8 in League Play. Guard Sylven Landesberg scores 17.4 points while shooting 41% from behind the arc. Forward Mike Scott scores 12.8 and 7.2 rebounds a game. Guard Sammy Zeglinski scores 9 points a game. No other player scores more than 7 points a game. The Cavaliers score 67 points a game. Virginia is 3-7 ATS their last 10 home games as underdogs and they are 0-4 ATS their last 4 games overall. Duke is 24-4 overall and 11-2 in Conference Play. Guard Jon Scheyer scores 18.8 points a game while shooting 40% from behind the arc. Guard Nolan Smith scores 17.9 points a game while shooting 42% from behind the arc. Forward Kyle Singler scores 16.9 points and 7.2 rebounds a game. No other player scores more than 5.8 points a game Duke scores 79.7 points a game and they shoot 76% from the foul line. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS of an ATS loss and they are 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 Sunday games. PLAY ON DUKE
Scott Spreitzer
Duke at Virginia
Those who have followed me know that I have been on a nice run in Virginia Cavalier games. I went with Virginia in their close cover at Virginia Tech on Feb. 13, and went against them twice since. The postponement of their originally scheduled game against Maryland really threw this team off kilter. Due to the rescheduling of that contest, the Cavs were forced to play three games in a five day period, and a total of five games in 11 days. Definitely not an easy task when you consider they're doing so against solid ACC opposition. Also making it tougher is the fact that new coach Tony Bennett is attempting to change the team's method of operation. Bennett has brought the same type of game plan that he utilized at Washington State. It worked in Pullman, and I believe it'll work in Charlottesville sooner rather than later. But right now he has a tired team, trying to learn a new system. And while they started the conference season quite well, they have faded in a hurry. Virginia enters today's contest on a 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS slide. Their last four losses have come by an average of 18.3 ppg. Meanwhile, Duke is on a red-hot run, and their players have said they cannot take a minute off. Lance Thomas even said this is a game they have to "take care of." That shows they're focused for the Cavaliers...which spells trouble for the home team. Duke didn't cover last time out, (an 18 point win over Tulsa), and they're on a 6-0 ATS run off a spread loss. Duke remains focused while worn out Virginia continues to fade.
Play on: Duke
VEGAS EXPERTS
Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
Good spot to play on the host Hawks here as they come off an outright loss to Dallas Friday night. This season, Atlanta has gone 10-2 against the number when coming off an outright loss and they're facing a Milwaukee team that's just 38-61 ATS when coming off three consecutive victories. In their last visit to Atlanta, the Bucks were crushed by 30 points.
Play on: Atlanta
BEN BURNS
Canada @ United States
PICK: Canada
I didn't play the first game between these teams, a 5-3 win for the Americans. I have gone 3-0 with games involving the Canadians though. I backed the Canadian men when they beat Russia by a score of 7-3. I also successfully played on the 'under 6.5' when the Canadian men beat Slovakia by a 3-2 count. Additionally, I backed the Canadian women when they beat the American women (2-0) for the gold medal. This afternoon, in the final game of the 2010 Olympics, I'm going back to the well one last time and backing the favored Canadians.
Yes, the Americans won the earlier meeting. Give them credit for doing so. However, those who watched that game would have seen that Canada had an edge in shots on goal and that the primary reason for that outcome was that US goalie (Ryan Miller) outplayed the Canadian one, future Hall-of-Famer, Martin Brodeur.
That result was seemingly just what the doctor ordered for the host country though, as they've been much improved ever since. The dismantling of a very good Russia team was particularly impressive. Perhaps most importantly, the loss to the Americans caused the Canadians to make a change between the pipes. Brodeur has been relegated to the bench and local hero (he plays for Vancouver) Roberto Luongo is in. While Brodeur will go down as one of the best goalies in the history of the NHL, I believe that Luongo is currently a better goalie. I won't say that he's better than Miller - but at least he shouldn't be outplayed by him, the way that Brodeur was.
Without the big advantage in goal that they enjoyed in the earlier game, I expect the Americans to have some trouble scoring goals. I believe that the Canadians have the stronger lineup, from top to bottom. (In terms of average NHL salary, the Canadians make $3 million more per player than the Americans.) The Olympics have already been a success for the US hockey team, regardless of today's outcome. Conversely, anything less than a win today will be considered a failure for Canada. As the women did before them, I look for them to ride the emotion of the home fans and entire country to the gold medal. Consider laying the wood.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan State +4
With Michigan State out to avenge a prior loss to Purdue, and with the Boilermakers short their best all-around player (Robbie Hummel), I'll take the Spartans catching a couple buckets today. With a win, Michigan state puts itself right back in the Big Ten title hunt. The Spartans will be extremely well prepared having not played since last Sunday, and extremely hungry coming off a loss to Ohio State. The big key here is that the Boilermakers are only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite. We'll fade them in that role today.
SPORTS WAGERS
Indiana +6 over Iowa
There is definitely some risk involved in betting games that don’t matter but that doesn’t mean bettors should completely ignore them. Iowa and Indiana have been at the bottom of the Big Ten all year – the result of years of incompetent coaching/recruiting and early NBA departures. There was talk at the start of Big-Ten play that Iowa could go winless in conference play and in that case the 3-12 record isn’t that big of an embarrassment. Traditional power Indiana meanwhile is on an ugly nine-game losing streak that began against this very Iowa squad on January 24th. However, the Hoosiers have still played hard and scared teams like Purdue and Illinois in recent weeks, signifying that Tom Crean still has the ears of his players. In an irrelevant game like today’s, that’s extremely important. Also as important is the fact that Indiana has exactly one senior on its roster and that means the players must give 100% these last three games. We saw this ugly phenomenon in College Football where teams completely quit on their coaches in the final games of the season because seniors tuned out their coaches but you can rest assured that won’t be the case with this Hoosiers team. Lastly, who exactly wants to lay six points with a team that ranks dead last in the Big 10 in defensive efficiency and next to last in offensive efficiency? Laying points with dreadful teams is never a good idea, especially against an opponent with a player like Maurice Creek who needs all the good games he can get if he wants to declare early for the draft. This is a weak line in our favor. Play: Indiana +6 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
Pass on Sunday's NBA
DUNKEL INDEX
Milwaukee at Atlanta
The Hawks look to take advantage of a Milwaukee team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 meetings in Atlanta. Atlanta is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8)
Game 801-802: Phoenix at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 119.295; San Antonio 126.011
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 209
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-4); Under
Game 803-804: Denver at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 121.333; LA Lakers 126.392
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+6); Over
Game 805-806: Milwaukee at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 115.041; Atlanta 124.643
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 8; 190
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-8); Over
Game 807-808: Washington at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 116.292; New Jersey 112.423
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 4; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under
Game 809-810: Miami at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.331; Orlando 128.625
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 12 1/2; 179
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 12; 183 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-12); Under
Game 811-812: Toronto at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.380; Oklahoma City 122.963
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4 1/2; 215
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+7 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: LA Clippers at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.166; Sacramento 111.579
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 3 1/2; 203
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+3 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: New Orleans at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 118.788; Dallas 122.267
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 200 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+8 1/2); Under
NCAAB
Louisville at Connecticut
The Cardinals look to build on their 10-3-1 ATS record in their last 14 games as a road underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Louisville is the pick (+4) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+4)
Game 817-818: Northwestern at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 62.370; Penn State 68.639
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-2)
Game 819-820: Marquette at Seton Hall
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 69.622; Seton Hall 67.434
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 2
Vegas Line: Seton Hall by 2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (+2)
Game 821-822: Richmond at Xavier
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 63.884; Xavier 73.343
Dunkel Line: Xavier by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Xavier by 7
Dunkel Pick: Xavier (-7)
Game 823-824: Louisville at Connecticut
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 68.669; Connecticut 66.693
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 4
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (+4)
Game 825-826: Temple at LaSalle
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 63.679; LaSalle 57.016
Dunkel Line: Temple by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Temple by 8
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+8)
Game 827-828: UC-Riverside at UC-Davis
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 48.667; UC-Davis 54.272
Dunkel Line: UC-Davis by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: UC-Davis by 2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Davis (-2)
Game 829-830: Indiana at Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 56.338; Iowa 64.566
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 8
Vegas Line: Iowa by 6
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (-6)
Game 831-832: Clemson at Florida State
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 70.421; Florida State 70.638
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Florida State by 4
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+4)
Game 833-834: Duke at Virginia
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 76.441; Virginia 70.142
Dunkel Line: Duke by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+9 1/2)
Game 835-836: Niagara at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.983; Fairfield 59.139
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 4
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+4)
Game 837-838: Manhattan at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 52.040; Loyola-MD 51.694
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+4)
Game 839-840: Canisius at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 51.426; Rider 51.209
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: Rider by 3
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+3)
Game 841-842: Iona at St. Peter's
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 53.914; St. Peter's 58.948
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 5
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-1 1/2)
Game 843-844: Marist at Siena
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 38.972; Siena 63.627
Dunkel Line: Siena by 24 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 27
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+27)
Game 845-846: Weber State at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 56.712; Portland State 55.661
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 1
Vegas Line: Weber State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+1 1/2)
Game 847-848: Michigan State at Purdue
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 68.124; Purdue 77.085
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 9
Vegas Line: Purdue by 4
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-4)
Chris Jordan
Denver (+6') at L.A. LAKERS
Here's your Western Conference Finals preview boys ...
It's bound to happen, the Nuggets challenging the Lakers to a seventh game in a couple months, with the winner representing the Western Conference in the NBA Finals.
I can see it, can't you?
One catch ... it might be the Lakers having to play catch up, and forcing that seventh game, as the Nuggets have owned the Purple and Gold this season, and absolutely deserve more respect than a touchdown-like point spread today.
Denver has blown out the Lakers in both meetings this season, and with a win today at Staples Center, it can lock up the season series against the defending champions.
I honestly don't think the Nuggets are going to win this game, but it's a contest I believe that will be decided by the final possession, and a guy named Kobe will have a lot to do with it.
2♦ NUGGETS
Michael Cannon
Clemson at FLORIDA STATE (-4)
Take Florida State for the home win and cover over Clemson.
The Seminoles know they have to win out at home to secure a tournament invite. Their 10-point loss at Clemson on Feb. 10 was one of their worst performances of the season, in their words.
Florida State responded by winning three straight, crushing Boston College at home and Virginia on the road by a combined 34 points. The Seminoles then scored a 10-point road win over North Carolina on Wednesday.
Clemson is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 overall, and 0-6 ATS on the road in conference play.
Take Florida State minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.
3♦ FLORIDA STATE
Jeff Benton
I enter today on runs of 29-14, 19-8, 16-7 and 10-4 with plays that I’m giving away! For Sunday’s freebie, I’ll head to the NBA and lay the chalk with the Lakers at home against the Nuggets.
Statement game for Los Angeles, which has gotten embarrassed by Denver twice this season, losing 105-79 in Colorado in mid November and 126-113 in L.A. three weeks ago. The Lakers know that Denver’s really the only threat to them in the Western Conference, and you can bet that Phil Jackson and Kobe Bryant want to send a message today that essentially says, “Hey, we’re still the champs and you’re still a bunch of chumps – don’t forget it!”
The good news for L.A. is that the Nuggets have to be gassed coming into this game. Since returning from the All-Star break on Feb. 18 (a rugged two-point overtime win at Cleveland), Denver has played five games in five cities, going from Cleveland to Washington to Denver to Golden State and then back to Denver. So this marks the Nuggets’ sixth game in six cities in the last 11 days. In fact, fatigue began to surface Friday when Denver needed to rally in the fourth quarter to beat lowly Detroit by just five points at home.
The Lakers have failed to cash in five straight games since returning from the break, meaning there’s value in this number (L.A. would’ve been laying at least nine if this game had been played a week ago). Finally, the Lakers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games when laying 5 to 10½ points at home, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight on Sunday, and they’ve cashed in 12 of their last 16 games when hosting the Nuggets in L.A.
4♦ LA LAKERS
Scott Delaney
Michigan State at Purdue
The Spartans hobble into this one with only two wins coming against Big 10 Conference cupcakes, over a six-game stretch. Now they're have the tough chore of visiting first-place Purdue.
I know the Boilermakers lost Robbie Hummel to a season-ending knee injury Wednesday, keep in mind the Spartans have lost their past three trips to Mackey Arena, and five of their past six.
And since there's an outside chance the Boilers could make a jump to the No. 1 slot, I think they're going to be at their best. Top-ranked Kansas and second-ranked Kentucky lost.
Purdue is No. 3.
After this blowout win, I think there won't be any question it is No. 1.
1♦ PURDUE