Craig Davis
Today's free play is on Purdue. It's that theory that when a major player misses a game with an injury, the general public jumps all over the other team. It's no different here. Everyone I've talked to is jumping on Michigan State plus the small number, but I think that's a mistake. I think Purdue proved they are better than the Spartans when they went to East Lansing and won. Even without Robbie Hummel I still think the Boilers are better, and at home I just don't see them losing. Like I said the last time I backed the Boilers, I don't see many teams in the country that can match up with JaJuan Johnson. A 6-11 center who can step out and hit an 18-foot jumper but is also strong enough to post up and hit the short range shot is hard to match up against... and that's exactly what we have today. I like the way the Spartans crash the glass, but Purdue can rebound too and when Johnson steps away from the basket, one of the better MSU "bigs" is going with him... so the rebounding advantage will no longer be in MSU's favor. I like Keaton Grant and the way he's leading this team, and right now the Boilers can ill-afford a loss in conference play. Boilers win by 8.
4♦ PURDUE
Tony George
Bucks +7
Like the red hot Bucks getting points here in this one. They have won 6 straight, 8 out of gtheir last 10 games and are off a 23 point beat down of Miami, and Atlanta is playing very inconsistent ball, and scoring has been an issue. Have a feeling here that the Bucks come out in this one, shoot well, and have success against the Hawks who are at home but off a loss to Dallas. Milwaukee is 5-0-1 ATS their last 6 winning them all. Good scoring distribution for the Bucks and decent defense and the Bucks hit the glass very very well and should win the wear in the paint for some cheap buckets.
John Ryan
Marist vs. Siena
Play: Siena -27
3* graded play on Sienna as they host Marist set to start at 4:00 EST. Our only concern would be that Sienna has already won this game in their heads and will be treating this game like a scrimmage and giving significant minutes to the bench players. Yet, our research clearly shows that the bench players are significantly better than Marist’s starters and in our opinion, it will not matter, who starts, or how many minutes the Sienna subs and second unit may get. Also, the second unit players will be hungry for this opportunity to play and will bring their best. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Sienna will win this game by 30 or more points. Rebounding will be dominated by Sienna and Marist truly has no chance to match their talent and abilities. We see Marist having at least 10 fewer boards than Sienna. In past games where Marist had 10+ fewer rebounds than opponent they are just 1-6 ATS this season and 2-18 ATS over the past 3 seasons. Take Sienna.
Hollywood Sports
Miami Heat at Orlando
Prediction: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat (29-30) playing without Dwayne Wade who nurses a sprained left calf were embarrassed at home against Milwaukee last night as they lost by a 94-71 score. Although Wade is listed as doubtful for tonight's game, the Heat should still bounce-back with a much better effort. Miami has covered 12 of their last 17 games coming off a double-digit home loss. While Miami has now lost three games in a row, they had won five games before that (with four of them on the road). The Heat have covered four of their last five road games. And they are 5-0-1 in their last six road games as underdogs of eleven of more points. Orlando (39-20) returns home for this game after a 100-93 loss in New Orleans. The Magic have lost both their meetings with Miami this season by 104-86 and 99-98 scores. The Heat play solid defense that holds their opponents to 95 PPG on just 44.3% shooting. With their likely better effort along with getting 12.5 points (as of this writing) as the underdog, the Heat should stay well within the number. Take the points with Miami.
Freddy Wills
Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Nuggets +6.5
The Nuggets in my opinion are the one team in the West that can beat these Lakers in a best of 7 series. I think this is a huge game for the Nuggets and I still don't think the Lakers are in sync right now with Kobe still trying to get over his injury. I look for this one to be close with the Nuggets having a chance to win it in the end.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Washington Wizards -1
We'll fade the Nets in this letdown spot Sunday. Playing back-to-back and after such a huge win over Boston Saturday, look for the worst team in the NBA to fall flat on its face this evening. The Nets are 0-14 in the second half of back-to-back games on the season. Plus, it's hard not to like Washington here, as shorthanded as it may be, when you consider that road teams where the line is +3 to -3 (WASHINGTON) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a loss by 6 points or less are 62-28 ATS since 1996, including 31-11 ATS the last 5 seasons. We'll take the Wizards.
Black Widow
1* on Nuggets/Lakers UNDER 209
In a battle between the top two teams in the Western Conference, this is going to become a defensive game Sunday as the Nuggets visit the Lakers in a rematch of last year's Western Conference Finals. L.A. has clamped it down defensively as we are in the second half of the season, holding 12 of their last 14 opponents to less than 100 points. The Lakers are 22-8 UNDER (+13.2 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. Denver is 29-13 UNDER (+14.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take the UNDER 209 points.