Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 26

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Clemson at North Carolina
The Tar Heels come into today's contest against Clemson with a 4-0-1 ATS record in their last five games against the Tigers. North Carolina is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-7)

Game 817-818: Fordham at Massachusetts (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 51.402; Massachusetts 65.426
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 14
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 15 1/2; 152
Dunkel Pick: Fordham (+15 1/2)

Game 819-820: Georgia Tech at NC State (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 57.968; NC State 65.620
Dunkel Line: NC State by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NC State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-5 1/2)

Game 821-822: South Florida at Memphis (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 54.019; Memphis 72.361
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 17; 148
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-17)

Game 823-824: Detroit at WI-Green Bay (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 49.018; WI-Green Bay 66.898
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 18
Vegas Line: WI-Green Bay by 13
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay (-13)

Game 825-826: Ball State at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 44.100; Western Michigan 61.326
Dunkel Line: Western Michigan by 17
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 12
Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (-12)

Game 827-828: Bradley at Evansville (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bradley 50.283; Evansville 56.573
Dunkel Line: Evansville by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Evansville by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (-4 1/2)

Game 829-830: SMU at Houston (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 66.328; Houston 59.571
Dunkel Line: SMU by 7
Vegas Line: SMU by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-3 1/2)

Game 831-832: Illinois at Indiana (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 62.438; Indiana 64.249
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 2
Vegas Line: Indiana by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+5 1/2)

Game 833-834: Cincinnati at Temple (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 68.577; Temple 63.992
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: Temple (+6 1/2)

Game 835-836: Harvard at Dartmouth (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 57.280; Dartmouth 51.377
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 6
Vegas Line: Harvard by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+11 1/2)

Game 837-838: Stanford at USC (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 63.990; USC 60.798
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 3
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6
Dunkel Pick: Southern California (+6)

Game 839-840: Minnesota at Nebraska (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 64.660; Nebraska 66.887
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 2
Vegas Line: Pick; 132
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska

Game 841-842: Kent State at Toledo (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 50.204; Toledo 63.318
Dunkel Line: Toledo by 13
Vegas Line: Toledo by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-9 1/2)

Game 843-844: Clemson at North Carolina (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 60.489; North Carolina 69.835
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 7; 132
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-7)

Game 845-846: Oregon at Washington State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 66.313; Washington State 58.445
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 8
Vegas Line: Oregon by 6
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-6)

Game 847-848: Utah at Arizona (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 62.700; Arizona 80.263
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 15; 132
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-15)

Game 849-850: California at UCLA (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 67.593; UCLA 76.301
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: UCLA by 6; 150
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-6)

Game 851-852: Siena at Fairfield (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 49.657; Fairfield 53.397
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-1 1/2)

Game 853-854: Iona at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.022; St. Peter's 50.390
Dunkel Line: Iona by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 6
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-6)

Game 855-856: Marist at Canisius (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 48.325; Canisius 60.516
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 12
Vegas Line: Canisius by 10
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-10)

Game 857-858: Quinnipiac at Manhattan (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Quinnipiac 50.798; Manhattan 64.318
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-10 1/2)

Game 859-860: Monmouth at Rider (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 49.132; Rider 53.105
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4
Vegas Line: Rider by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Monmouth (+7 1/2)

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Portland Trailblazers vs. Golden State WarriorsSERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Golden State Warriors -5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Trailblazers got the better of the Warriors the last time it visited the Bay Area thanks to a 113-101 win but I expect we see a different story this time around. While Portland played just last night at home against a strong Minnesota team at home, the Warriors had the day off and are licking their lips to get back in the winning column. Note that Golden State is 4-2 ATS and 6-1 SU revenging a home loss to an opponent. Portland is just 9-15 ATS against teams averaging 99 more points. Warriors head coach Mark Jackson said this after his teams’ mores recent loss: "There is not one guy that is doing their job defensively.” I think we his team pull together for a strong win at home as it knows Portland is nothing to sniff at home. Lay the short points with Golden State.

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Cincinnati vs. TempleFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Cincinnati -7FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The rubber band finally snapped for Temple. After finding a way to hang in vs. most opponents, the Owls lost by 24 at UConn. That is now a 0-7 SU start to AAC play and a record of 5-12 SU, 5-10 ATS for the season. With only 1 RS from last year, this is a far different team than one who has recorded 125 victories in the last five years. In the first meeting of the year between these two, the Bearcats toyed with the Owls in a 69-58 victory. But, this is a Bearcat team that has a far greater margin of victory than previous contingents. They are also 7-4 ATS as favorite. A notable departure from recent seasons. With Justin Jackson and Rubles stepping up to compliment Kilpatrick on the offensive end, this team has more offensive cohesion than in recent seasons. But it is the role of Defensive Dandy which finds Cincinnati allowing just 56/38/33 with a +5 rebound margin that continues to be the key to their success.

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Phoenix Suns at Cleveland CavaliersFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Phoenix SunsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Rookie Head Coach Jeff Hornacek definitely a contender for Coach of the Year the way he has turned around this Phoenix club. And lately, the loss of star guard Eric Bledsoe was expected to derail this team, but Hornacek has got them going strong again with wins over Denver and the NBA's top team, Indiana. Swingman Gerald Green has filled the void left by Bledsoe, averaging 13.5 ppg. The Suns have also been good to bettors on the road, covering 14 of their last 20 away contests. As for Cleveland, well the addition of Chicago Bulls star Luol Deng was supposed to infuse some sparks into this team, but they are just just 6-12 S/U and 9-9 ATS their last 18 contests. And the Cavaliers also have seen their #1 draft choice, UNLV's Anthony Bennett, be a total bust so far this year. Bennett has struggled greatly this year, averagin just 10.5 minutes a game and 2.4 points and 27.7% from the field. In fact, the Cavaliers are considering sending Bennett to D-League Canton Charge so he can get some quality minutes and maybe regain the form that made him the overall first pick in the NBA draft. The Cavs best draft choice has been Mathew Dellavedova, an undrafted rook out of St Mary's. Dellavedova has averaged 16.1 minutes a game, compared to just 10.5 by Bennett. The road team has done very well of late in this matchup, covering each of the last seven meetings. In addition, the Suns are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Cleveland. Too many question marks still remain for this Cleveland club. The Suns are playing well, even without Bledsoe, and are the much better team.

Doug Upstone

Quinnipiac vs. Manhattan
Play: Quinnipiac +11

Quinnipiac beat Manhattan by five just over two weeks ago despite having the lower FG%. If they can control the glass like they have done to many opponents this year, they have a chance at an upset here on the road. Take the 11 points with the Bobcats.

Rob Vinciletti

San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat -4

We want to play on home favorites with rest off a home favored win and spread loss at -5 or more and scored 100 or more, vs an opponent off a road favored win and cover and scored 100 or more points and covered the spread by 10 or more points. These home teams are winning by an average 15 points and cashing over 90% long term. Miami has covered the last 3 when playing off 3 spread losses. The Spurs are 0-5 ats as a road dog with rest off a road favored win and cover by 10 or more points, while scoring 90 or more. The Spurs have lost 6 of 7 here and are 2-6 ats after allowing 85 or less. Look for Miami to get the win and cover.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

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Ball State vs. Western MichiganFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Western Michigan -12FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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DAVE COKINFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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UTAH AT ARIZONAFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: UTAH +15.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When trying to build a case for one side against another, it’s usual form to extol the virtues of the side you’re on while picking apart the weaknesses of the team being faded. I think I’ll pass on that formula here and just focus on why I like the underdog in the Utah-Arizona game.
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The Wildcats are the top rated team in the nation. Aside from some shaky free throw shooting, there’s just nothing to find fault with on this team. Arizona does everything well at both ends of the court, and their chemistry on the court is as strong as on any team I’ve seen all season.
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But there’s also a lot to like about Utah. Larry Krystkowiak took over a program in some pretty dire straits, and it’s more than a little impressive to see how quickly he’s gotten them back to respectability. They’re sitting at 14-5 and when you break down the results, they’re apparently not a fluke that has just been sneaking up on teams.
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The Utes are literally just a handful of buckets away from being 19-0. The four-point loss the other night at Arizona State was their largest of the season. The five defeats have been by a combined total of 13 points and they’re getting more than that from Arizona today.
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I’m certainly not calling for an upset in this game. Arizona is playing at an exceptionally high level and Utah probably can’t beat them. But based on their body of work, it’s also tough to see the gritty Utes getting crushed. They’ve been undervalued all season and with the number as high as it is, that might well be the case again today. I’ll side with Utah plus the points.

Jack Jones

Dallas Mavericks -6½

Off back-to-back losses, I look for the Dallas Mavericks (25-20) to respond in a big way with a blowout home victory over the Detroit Pistons. The Mavs are 14-7 at home this season and clearly need to make a push to assure that they aren't on the outside looking in come playoff time.

Detroit (17-26) is one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. It added big-name free agents Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings this offseason, but the result has been a disaster. These are two of the more selfish players in the league, and the team chemistry just hasn't been there.

The Pistons have lost three in a row coming in. They even fell to league bottom feeder Milwaukee, while also losing to a New Orleans team that is without two of its best players in Jrue Holiday and Ryan Anderson during this stretch.

Dallas has won eight of its last nine meetings with Detroit. The Mavericks are 27-12 ATS versus poor defensive teams that allow a shooting percentage of 46% or more over the last two seasons. The Pistons are 3-18 ATS in their last 21 games versus teams who average 9 or more steals per game.

Detroit is 8-27-1 ATS in its last 36 games vs. Western Conference opponents. Dallas is 27-11 ATS in its last 38 games vs. a team with a losing record. The Mavericks are 40-17 ATS in their last 57 games following a loss. Bet the Mavericks Sunday.

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Coyotes at CanucksFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Canucks are slumping once again, and their offense seems to have disappeared in recent games. Vancouver has scored just 11 goals while losing four of their last seven. The defense remains solid however, with the #3 ranked penalty killing unit, and an opponent's scoring average of just 2.5 goals per game, good enough to rank 7th in the league. Roberto Luongo has been having one of the best year's of his career, which is quite amazing when you think that just over a year ago his days in Vancouver were all but done. They will need Bobby Luo to be on top form tonight, as they host the Coyotes, in a matchup with massive playoff implications. The Coyotes are playing their third straight game on the road, after splitting their two games in Alberta, losing to the Flames and beating the Oilers on Friday. Take away a pair of road wins in Edmonton (the last place team in the conference), and Phoenix has lost five straight on the road. These teams have a tendency to play low scoring games, with each of the last five games in this series going under, and eight of the last 10. The Canucks have trended toward the under at a rate of 6-3-1 over their last 10 games.

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Denver Nuggets at Sacramento KingsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Denver NuggetsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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There are emerging players all over the league, but these two teams offer some of the best examples. Kings F DeMarcus Cousins has recorded a double-double in 14 straight games, as the Kings went 7-7 since December 20th… plus he’s played better defense while staying out of foul trouble. With backcourt mate, Isaiah Thomas (not Zeke, but also diminutive in size) having a breakout year averaging 19.5 PPG and 6.2 assists, things seem to be moving in the right direction for new coach Mike Malone. For Denver, Ty Lawson is getting serious consideration for an All-Star nod with Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook on the shelf, as Lawson has put forth an outstanding effort since the first of the year trying to get an invite to New Orleans. Averaging 18.5 PPG and 11.7 APG in the 10 games of 2014, the former North Carolina star has led the Nuggets to a 6-4 mark. So which way to roll in this matchup? Only one way in our minds. The Kings are coming in off a revenger with the Pacers (7-20 ATS after Indiana, including 2-12 ATS versus avenging foes), and have a same-season revenger with the Jazz on deck (long-time lousy 18-39-1 ATS mark in games before Utah). Now, Wednesday night’s Achilles injury leaves Rudy Gay in question for this game. We noted in an earlier newsletter that his trade from Toronto was actually addition by subtraction for the Raptors, but he has been a big contributor for the Kings, averaging 22 PPG over the last ten contests. Finally, the Nuggets have owned this series, winning nine straight meetings until this year’s season opener, a 90-88 loss in Sacramento back in October. Denver is 11-5-1 ATS with same-season revenge when the Kings are under .500, so expect the Nuggets to strike gold in this payback. We recommend a 1-unit play on Denver.

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Miami Heat -4 & Under 203FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Well, this is just a regular season game w/ two banged up teams, so I don't think that the "revenge" spot for SAS will make any different regarding the final outcome of this contest.
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In my opinion, what really matters is that the Heat enjoyed 2 full days off to rest and prepare the following game for the first time in more than 10 days! (01/15 game @WAS was their last "good physical spot"). MIA defense hasn't been good this season and w/ fatigue being a major problem for them lately, they really couldn't rotate properly on the defensive end.
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This might change today w/ more time to rest and w/ D. Wade back because as inconsistent as Wade is on defense, he is really a big upgrade over R. Allen.
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SAS is having some problems in taking care the ball as they've committed 15, 17 and 22 TO's in L3 games and this is a big concern when facing the Heat's ball pressure defense, so I expect MIA to finally having a decent defensive performance today.
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The real X factor for this contest is related w/ LeBron James! SAS is playing without K. Leonard & D. Green - their two best defensive perimeter players! LeBron James is almost impossible to be stopped, but for today he will have a great matchup advantage to explore and this will be good enough for MIA b/c LeBron will (as always) make the right plays.
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I expect this contest to be a relatively slow paced game and this will make the difference w/ Totals IMO. My fair line for this contest is 200 points so besides playing the Heat, I'm also playing the Under in here as well as my Single Dime Play.

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N.Y. RANGERS -107 over New JerseyFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Devils are within one point of a playoff spot. There is a log jam in the East as eight teams, separated by an incredible two points, battle for three playoff spots. Every game is crucial and the Devils have as good a shot as any of them of making the playoffs proving they stick with Cory Schneider as their #1 goaltender. Schneider was #2 for most of this year but that has recently changed because anyone with any hockey knowledge knows that he’s a far better option than Martin Brodeur. However, Brodeur gets the call for this game because as Peter DeBoer and Lou Lou Lamoriello stated, “he’s earned this right”. In other words, this is a courtesy start for another “Winter Classic” at Yankee Stadium. Brodeur’s .905 save percentage is one of the worst in the league and it’s even worse when you consider that he’s faced fewer shots on net per game than any goalie in the league. Over his last dozen starts, Brodeur has save percentage games of .889, .893, .792, .818, .783, .875, .824 and .818. Playing outdoors in frigid temperatures against one of the hottest teams in the league is a recipe for disaster.
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The Rangers have won seven of 10 and have picked up points in eight of 10. Over their past nine games, the Rangers have allowed two goals or fewer eight times. Overall, the Rangers have allowed just 16 goals against over their past nine games. Rick Nash is playing at another level right now and has never looked better since joining the Blue Shirts. With goaltending being as significant as the starting pitchers in baseball, the Rangers have a huge edge in this game. We once again turn to Peter DeBoer, who started the following, “It really is an easy decision from a right thing to do perspective,'' he said. ''His career, 20 years with the Devils and what he's done in being the face of this franchise.'' DeBoer’s decision to start Brodeur makes our decision of backing the Rangers in a pick ‘em game an easy choice for us too.
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CHICAGO -1½ +129 over WinnipegFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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For the first time this season, we’re spotting 1½-pucks in an NHL game because this is the perfect spot to do so. Winnipeg has played some fine hockey since changing coaches with five wins in six games. The Jets only loss over that span occurred against San Jose on Thursday night. However, fatigue set in last night, as Winnipeg blew a 4-1 lead over the Maple Leafs before winning in in OT. After playing in Anaheim on Tuesday, San Jose on Thursday, and back home last night against the Leafs, the Jets will now travel again for the fourth consecutive game in six days in three different time zones. Winnipeg is in no position here, physically or mentally, to do battle with Chicago.
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The Blackhawks are coming off back-to-back losses for only the third time this season. Previously, after losing two in a row, Chicago responded with a 5-1 victory over Minnesota and a 6-2 victory Florida. The other time they lost consecutive games, they ended up losing three in a row but that fate does not await them here. The Blackhawks are an offensive juggernaut. Their 189 goals scored is tops in the NHL and they’ve outscored the Jets 15-5 over the last three times they’ve played them. This is the Jets worst scheduling date of the season. They are in a letdown spot after three emotional games, capped off by last night’s OT win over the Maple Leafs in front of a packed and enthusiastic house. Winnipeg could not have hand-picked a worse time to face the Blackhawks, a rested squad in a foul mood.

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Detroit +6½ over DALLASFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit is somewhat of an enigma with some outstanding individual talent but a season of inconsistent play sees them battling for a playoff spot when they should be sitting comfortably in one instead. Case in point was Detroit’s 103-101 loss to New Orleans on Friday at the Palace. The Pistons used a 30-4 run to turn a 10-point deficit into a 16-point lead and subsequently lost the game. Three of their last six losses have been by four points or less. The Pistons’ stock is low right now with three straight losses and that includes a loss against the dreadful Bucks on Wednesday. Detroit has also lost nine of its past 12 games but it has been much better on the road with 10 wins in 21 games and this is another winnable road game.
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The Mavericks are a careless team that turns the ball over far too often to be spotting points with. Those turnovers become four-point swings very quickly. Dallas also returns home after a three-game trip and after playing five of its last six on the road. The Mavericks have to be at their absolute best to win games. Unlike other powers in the West, Dallas is too soft defensively to withstand anything other than a 100% full out effort. They have also shown a propensity for allowing the opposition big runs almost every game and that’s another difficult thing to overcome when spotting points. The Pistons like the road very much so taking back significant points in a game they have a distinct chance of winning outright is the prudent way to go.
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SACRAMENTO over DenverFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Line is off board Sunday morning but it’s a game worth playing and we’ll post the number as soon as it becomes available. The Nuggets played Portland on Thursday and had Friday off before hosting Indiana Saturday night (they beat Indy). That’s two Class-A teams in back-to-back games. After playing the Blazers and Pacers in their previous two contests and playing three games in four days, the erratic Nuggets don’t figure to be very sharp here.
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Sacramento is likely without Rudy Gay but that’s fine, as it allows us a better line in a favorable spot. The Kings have been outstanding at home with three wins in four games with only loss occurring against Indiana in OT. We'll update both the analysis and line soon.
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