David Banks
Nets / Celtics Over 193
Two teams heading in opposite directions in the Atlantic Division square off on ESPN Sunday evening when the red-hot Brooklyn Nets (19-22, 20-21 ATS) take the short trip to visit to the reeling Boston Celtics (15-30, 22-22-1 ATS) at TD Garden in Boston at 6:35 ET. The Nets may be three games under .500, but they have won four games in a row and are 9-1 since their 10-21 start to move to within 2 games of the first place Raptors. The Celtics recently welcomed back Rajon Rondo, but they have lost 13 of their last 15 games overall and are 1-4 since Rondo came back with the win coming in the only game he missed since his return.
With all of that said, the Nets have not been the most reliable of favorites this season, a role they will undoubtedly be cast in here, going just 9-12 ATS as chalk with a losing 10-11 straight up record, as worst of all, they have gone 2-6 both straight up and ATS as road favorites! However, the 'under' could be worth a look here as Brooklyn seems like the only one of these teams capable of scoring points right now. The Nets have topped 100 points in all four games of their current winning streak but the 'over' and 'under' split 2-2 in those games with their defense allowing an average of just 96.5 points. Brooklyn has now climbed into the top half of the league in both points against (14th) and field goal percentage allowed (13th), and they appear to have a good chance to continue that defensive improvement vs. what has been a struggling offense for most of the season that has looked even worse while trying to get Rondo back into game shape.
The Celtics are 26th in the NBA in scoring at just 95.1 points per game and 23rd in field goal percentage at 43.8 percent, and the excitement surrounding Boston when Rondo returned after missing nearly a year with a torn ACL quickly waned when it became apparent that he is nowhere near where he was before the injury yet. Rondo has averaged only 5.0 points in his four games back, although his 5.2 assists while averaging 22 minutes are commendable and can be seen as a positive sign. Still, the bottom line is that the Celtics as a team have averaged 91.0 points in his four games back after losing 101-83 Friday to a Thunder team that played without both Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook for the first time in its history since moving to Oklahoma City. And Boston has no choice but to keep playing Rondo as that is the only way that he will get back in shape, even if it means giving away more games in what looks like a lost season under first year NBA coach Brad Stevens.
The 'under' is 9-3 in the Celtics' last 12 games following an ATS loss, 6-2 in their last eight games vs. teams with losing straight up records and 5-0 in their last five games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. The 'under' is also 4-1 in the Nets' last five games vs. teams with losing straight up records and 3-1-1 in their last five road games.
Jimmy Boyd
Spurs/Heat Under 204
The total for this game has been set way too high considering this matchup features two very talented defensive teams. The Spurs are holding opponents to a mere 94.3 points per game on the road this season. They are up against a Miami team that is allowing 98.5 points per game. San Antonio has gone under the total in three of its last four games. While Miami may not have that same trend right now, you also cannot ignore the fact that three of their last four totals have been set well under the mark set in today's matchup.
You should play the under when the total is 200 points or more, the home team is making over 47.5 percent of its shot attempts overall, they have made over 50 percent of their attempts in two straight games, and they are facing an average defensive team allowing a shooting percentage between 43.5 to 45.5 percent. This system identifies games where the oddsmakers set the bar too high on the total. The under has a 41-11 (79%) record in this scenario. These teams share two of the best records in the league because of their outstanding defensive play this season, and I expect this game to stay well under the posted total.
Steve Janus
Utah Utes +15
Arizona is simply overvalued right now due to their No. 1 ranking. As good as the Wildcats are, asking them to win by 15 points against a talented Utah team is a little much. The Utes may be just 3-4 in conference play, but could just as easily be 7-0. Each of their four losses have come by 4-points or less. In fact, Utah hasn't loss all season by more than 4-points, as their only non-conference defeat was a 2-point loss at Boise State.
Utah is 18-8 ATS after playing their previous game as an underdog, 8-2 ATS following a contest where they covered the spread, and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 after covering the spread in 2 straight. Arizona on the other hand is 17-37 ATS in home games after a non-cover where they won outright and just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 following a conference home win.
There's also a key system favoring Utah. Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (ARIZONA) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season are just 49-70 (41.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
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Chicago Blackhawks -1.5 +132FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Jets escaped the Leafs last night after blowing a late lead. It was a big victory for Winnipeg over the Leafs, but they face a tougher task tonight against the Hawks. It is a tall order to ask from the Jets, as they must be feeling quite good after winning last night. We see it often where a team has a big win the night before and then puts up a dud the next night. The Jets will also need to make the long trek from Winnipeg to Chicago to face the stingy Blackhawks. The Hawks are particularly good at home. The United Center always boasts a raucous crowd that makes things on the opposition. Chicago is 18-3-7 at home compared to the Jets record of 11-14-1 on the road. The Jets have been hot, don't get me wrong, winning five of their last six games with the most impressive coming against the Ducks. However, this is a perfect opportunity to fade them. I view this as a letdown game for Winnipeg after last nights win. The Blackhawks should be able to find some offensive firepower in this game, as they have averaged 3.47 goals up to this point in the season. I find some value to be had in the -1.5 at +132. If the Jets pull this one off they may build a Paul Maurice statue in Winnipeg. I don't see it happening, though. I think the Blackhawks win by at least two goals so the puck line looks attractive to me.
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Utah at ArizonaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: ArizonaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We're still not convinced Arizona is the best team in College Basketball (we DO believe they are deserving of their current #1 overall ranking), but they have certainly played well recently and kept their unbeaten record in tact while others have been dropping by the wayside. We think the Wildcats perfect season will come to an end soon, but not tonight and we'll back them at home to win big against an overmatched Utah side.
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Utes have played just four games away from their home court this season - going 0-4 straight up while scoring just 61 ppg. That includes a 57-point effort at Washington and a 46-point effort at Washington State, and against a very good offensive Wildcats squad that plays great defense at home (53 ppg allowed in 13 home games), we don't see how the Utes can stay close. Arizona stays perfect with another blowout win tonight!
Dave Price
Detroit Pistons +6½
The Mavs are being overvalued at home where they are 2-6 ATS in their last eight and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 versus teams that have a losing road mark. While Dallas has a respectable 14-7 home record, it is just 9-12 ATS in these games, largely because it has given up an average of 102.7 points in them. The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games versus teams that carry a home winning percentage greater than .600. They are also 10-1 ATS in road games played in the second half of their schedule the last three seasons versus teams like Dallas that give up an average of 99.0 ppg or more. In addition, in a matchup between teams that allow 102.0 ppg or more, you want to back the team (Detroit) that has scored 100 points or more in four consecutive games. That's because doing so has produced a 71-37 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.
Rickie Robbins
Brooklyn Nets vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Boston Celtics +155
With nine wins in their last 10 outings, the Nets have went from being the most disappointing team in the league to being the hottest team in the league. On Friday, Joe Johnson scored just five points while Paul Pierce had just 12, but it was Mirza Teletovic to the rescue as he made seven three pointers on his way to 34 points. However, the real icing on the cake was the play of Deron Williams who played 35 minutes off the bench and finished the game with 18 points and 11 assists. With the win, Brooklyn improve to a league-best 9-1 record since Jan.1 and 12-9 at home where they've won their last seven.
Meanwhile, the Celtics have lost 13 of their last 15 games but received a real break on Friday when they received news that Kevin Durant would not suit up for the Thunder. However, other than Jeff Green and Gerald Wallace who had 16 and 13 points respectively, no one else could really put up enough points to keep up with the Thunder who shot over 53 percent from the field. Rajon Rondo had just five points but made eight assists as he continues to work himself back into shape but the fact is that the loss drops the Celtics to 15-30 overall and 9-13 at home.
In ATS trends, the Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last six games against a team with a losing record and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall, while the Celtics are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a loss and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
Head to head, the Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings and the road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
It's hard to go past the red-hot Nets against the Celtics here, but I am on the home team.
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Minnesota vs. NebraskaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Minnesota -1FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Nebraska beat Ohio State on their own court last time out so they are clearly capable of beating the elite in the Big 10, but then they could not beat Penn State on the road. Facing Minnesota on Sunday is a different challenge and I think Minnesota's extra day of prep will clearly benefit them in this game. They have no look ahead game as they host Northwestern in their next game meanwhile Nebraska has Indiana up next. Minnesota is playing much better in conference play and I think they will get a big win on the road in the Big Ten.
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Clemson +7.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two good defenses going at it today in Chapel Hill. UNC owns a top 25 defense but Clemson is a top 50 offense rebounding team who should get quite a few second chances. Clemson scores 22% of their points from the line where they hit at a clip of 75%. KJ McDaniels should cause some matchup issues for UNC. If UNC has a great defense than Clemson is amazing as they rank in the top 10 in most defense categories. The most important aspect of their defense is their shutdown man defense against shots inside the arch. UNC scores 64% of their points from inside and it will have difficulty hitting that many shots against the Clemson inside defense which is a top 15 unit. UNC 60 Clemson 58
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Cincinnati -6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Another great defense team in Cincy will be taking the floor against a Temple team that has really disappointed this year... Cincy is a top 8 offense rebounding team who gets a second chance on 40% of their possessions with Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles owning the offense glass. Temple is a very lazy and uninterested team on the defense glass and are going to struggle against Rubles and Jackson. Cincy's offense is nothing prolific but is a top 140 offense going up against a bottom 240 defense. Cincy's strength is on the defense end where they are top 5 overall defense. Cincy does an excellent job at turning teams over ranking in the top 5. Justin Jackson is top 35 in steals and top 6 in blocks and should cause problems for Temple. Temple scores 56% of their points inside and Cincy's interior defense is top 5. Cincinnati 72 Temple 60
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SMU -3.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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SMU is a top 75 offense and their true strength is top 35 offense rebounding unit going up against a team that struggles on the defense glass Houston ranking in the bottom 230. SMU scores 60% of their points from inside and besides Thomas Houston really does not have any bulk inside. SMU is a top 15 defense and does not allow second chance points. Additionally, SMU does an excellent job at turning teams over ranking top 50 in blocks and steals. SMU owns the top 2 point defense in all the land going up against a Houston team who scores 55% of their points inside. The matchup between Markus Kennedy and TaShawn Thompson should be awesome! SMU 75 Houston 65
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Oregon -5.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon is a struggling team who is 1-5 in conference play and the losers of 5 straight. This Oregon team is not as bad as their record shows and as a result we are getting a great price against Washington State. If this matchup would have occurred before this run by Oregon this number would have been close to double digits. Oregon is a serious risk of missing the tournament if they don't turn their season around and Washington State is a great team to do that. Oregon still owns a top 20 offense that gets to the line where they really excel shooting 78%. Washington State is a good defense rebounding team but really doesn't limit teams inside or outside the arch. Washington State is a bottom 270 offense and can't rebound on the offense glass. Washington State also shoots a lot from beyond the arch but shoots 32% which is the reason why Washington State doesn't score points. I don't think they will be able to keep up against Oregon. Oregon 78 Washington State 68
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UMass -15.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Early Noon start today at the Mullins Center as Fordham brings their 8-10 record in to take on an angry bunch of Minutemen. UMass is still stinging after a 3-point loss at Richmond this week and there's not way to get back in the saddle than a game with the Rams. Fordham is coming off a 6-point win over George Mason last time out, but this is a tall order today for the Rams. This team really struggles to shoot the ball from the outside, only shooting 40% for the season. UMass is going to want and get up and down the floor and start shaking off the negative vibe from the Richmond game. The Minutemen roll here today!
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SMU -4FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Really nice spot here today for the visitors and we are going to take full advantage. Larry Brown has the Mustangs playing really, really good basketball and they travel to Houston to take on a team playing with limited scholarship players right now and will be outmanned here today. The Cougars come home off a 23-point pounding to Memphis and while we think this game will be tight for awhile, we feel very confident that SMU pulls out an 8-10 point victory. They have been pretty good on the road, going 5-4 and were awfully competitive in losses to Louisville and Cincy. This is our biggest play of the day.
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UCLA -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cal Bears invade Pauley Pavilion for a matchup of two of the best teams in the Pac-12 right now, both trying to chase down Arizona. Cal enters this game playing really well at 14-5 overall, but they are just 4-5 on the road this season. For UCLA, home has been a very good place to be, where they sport a 12-1 record and are averaging almost 85 ppg. Anderson and Adams have been playing out of their minds for the Bruins and give UCLA a great 1-2 punch, while Cal is going to look to Bird for most of their offensive production now that he is back and healthy. We saw Cal play in Maui and get absolutely manhandled by an everage Dayton team. While we know that was an early game, they really struggled to compete on the glass and we think the same thing holds true today.
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Cincinnati -6.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Bearcats of Cincinnati(18-2) travel to Philly to take on the Temple Owls(5-12) these teams are heading in the opposite direction, as Temple has lost their last 7 games and are 0-6 in conference play. The Bearcats on the other hand have won 11 in a row and are 6-0 in conference. The Bearcats get it done on defense holding opponents to just under 56 a game and only 38% shooting. Temple is avg 75 a game, so will be a good test for this bearcat defense, but the Owls also allow 76 a game. The last time these 2 met, Cinci walked away with an 11 pt victory. The line seems a little fishy, but we are biting here and will side with the Road team.
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HOUSTON (+3.5) over SMUFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Larry Brown has SMU playing great basketball but Houston has owned this series. Cougars have won 12 of last 15 games against SMU, winning the last three by 11,4 and 3 points. Houston has also played well at home going 9-4 ATS their last 13. Cougars have beaten Connecticut at home and their only conference home loss was to Cincinnati by a point. Take Houston over SMU.
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the biggest college basketball underdog on the card, as I like the South Florida Bulls plus the points at Memphis.
These two met once already, and yes I know the Tigers won by 15 at South Florida on New Year's Eve, but we're going to see a bit of a challenge in today's American Athletic Conference's showdown.
While the Bulls come into today's game on a three-game losing streak, with their only league victory coming on the road at Temple, something tells me the Tigers are going to overlook South Florida.
There's no look-ahead game, as lowly Central Florida is on deck, and the Tigers are coming off of an 82-59 win over Houston on Thursday night, and have won 13 of their last 16 games. So I'm not sure if Memphis can stay focused long enough to cover this game.
In the first meeting, Memphis had a 16-point lead at halftime, and went up by as many as 29 in the second half. The Tigers dominated in fast break points 21-8. So how serious will the Tigers take the Bulls tonight.
Everything points to a blowout, and that's when you get yourself in trouble at the books, when everything looks too good to be true. Take the underdog.
4♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Jeff Benton
Sunday freebie is the Detroit Pistons plus the points at Dallas.
Both teams mired in losing streaks, as the Pistons have lost 3 straight and 10 of their last 13 straight up, while the Mavericks have lost their last pair and 4 of their last 6 overall.
Who gets the win on Sunday? Mavs likely, but cannot lay this many points with a team that has not been winning outright lately, Not only that, but the points have been too tall for Dallas in 4 of the last 6 series meetings against the Pistons, as Detroit is actually 6-4 now the past 10 series meetings with the points.
Dallas stops their losing streak straight up, but it is Detroit that will get the cover with the points.
1♦ DETROIT
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the Portland Trail Blazers in the second of back-to-back games. After pulling away from Minnesota in the 4th quarter last night for a 115-104 victory, the Blazers will battle a high-scoring team that was beaten by the T'Wolves the night before.
The funny thing about the Blazers is the fact that they were considered a home-only team the last few years and even at the beginning of this year.
However, things changed in December and the Blazers actually have a much better road record than you might think. In fact, their road record is actually better than Golden State's home record, and while I believe the Warriors are going to eventually make the playoffs and probably make some noise.
Having said that, I believe the Blazers are the better team right now and I don't see how Golden State is going to keep Portland from dominating inside.
Dating back to 2009, these teams are taking turns trading three victories apiece. I know, strange huh? But if you look back at their history, the Blazers win three then the Warriors win three, etc. Golden State won the last meeting last season to finish up their three games. To start this season the Warriors won... and owe me two more.
Take the Blazers plus the points at Golden State as your free play of the day.
3♦ PORTLAND
Scott Delaney
Now, while you ponder making money with my top play in the NBA - the total in the Lakers/Knicks game - I'm also giving you a late total in the pros, as I like two of the top Western Conference teams to soar. Portland and Golden State will put on a show in Oaktown, as I like this number to land high tonight.
Four of the last five meetings have gone over when these two have played, and with the Trail Blazers looking to maintain their status in the Western Conference, they know they need to keep the pressure - and tempo - on high when they play a team like the Warriors.
Portland is 0-2-1 with totals (two unders and a push) in its last three, but it's also played Minnesota, Denver and Oklahoma City in those contests. This one being on Golden State's home court, the feeling will be mututal, as Steph Curry and the Warriors will be looking to run the game just as high.
The Warriors are 3-1-1 in their last five games, and they're averaging 105.9 points per game at home. The Blazers shouldn't feel too intimidated since they're averaging 109.7 points on the road.
Portland has gone over in five straight in Pacific Division play and in 14 of its last 19 on the road. Golden State, meanwhile, has gone over in five of its last six against Northwest foes and four of five overall.
3♦ Trail Blazers/Warriors Over