Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday January, 27

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Florida State at Miami (FL)
The Seminoles look to build on their 6-2-1 ATS record in their last 9 games in Miami. Florida State is the pick (+10 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hurricanes favored by only 8. Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+10 1/2)

Game 815-816: Seton Hall at St. John's (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 58.623; St. John's 61.775
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 2
Vegas Line: St. John's by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seton Hall (+4 1/2)

Game 817-818: Michigan State at Indiana (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 70.041; Indiana 79.931
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 10; 131
Vegas Line: Indiana by 8 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-8 1/2); Under

Game 819-820: Virginia Tech at Clemson (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 55.069; Clemson 67.698
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-10 1/2)

Game 821-822: Richmond at Massachusetts (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 58.566; Massachusetts 63.167
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-2 1/2)

Game 823-824: Rutgers at Connecticut (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 61.029; Connecticut 67.474
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+8 1/2)

Game 825-826: Drake at Missouri State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Drake 56.362; Missouri State 57.501
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 1
Vegas Line: Drake by 1
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+1)

Game 827-828: California at Colorado (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 59.893; Colorado 64.631
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 4 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Colorado by 6 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: California (+6 1/2); Over

Game 829-830: Iowa at Purdue (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 68.347; Purdue 68.862
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 1; 133
Vegas Line: Purdue by 2 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Iowa (+2 1/2); Under

Game 831-832: Creighton at Southern Illinois (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 65.664; Southern Illinois 56.676
Dunkel Line: Creighton by 9; 142
Vegas Line: Creighton by 11; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Illinois (+11); Over

Game 833-834: Florida International at South Alabama (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 51.778; South Alabama 57.165
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-4 1/2)

Game 835-836: Michigan at Illinois (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 76.004; Illinois 66.506
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Michigan by 6; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-6); Under

Game 837-838: Florida State at Miami (FL) (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida State 63.307; Miami (FL) 71.196
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 8; 135
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) 10 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (+10 1/2); Over

Game 839-840: George Mason at Northeastern (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: George Mason 56.907; Northeastern 59.770
Dunkel Line: Northeastern by 3
Vegas Line: Northeastern by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northeastern (-1 1/2)

Game 841-842: Stanford at Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 63.044; Utah 58.091
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 5
Vegas Line: Stanford by 2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-2)

Game 843-844: Iona at Loyola-MD (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 58.950; Loyola-MD 61.281
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 1
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-1)

Game 845-846: Siena at Marist (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 43.422; Marist 50.014
Dunkel Line: Marist by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Marist by 4
Dunkel Pick: Marist (-4)

Game 847-848: Chattanooga at NC-Greensboro (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 42.924; NC-Greensboro 50.468
Dunkel Line: NC-Greensboro by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NC-Greensboro by 6
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (-6)

Game 849-850: Fairfield at St. Peter's (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 54.436; St. Peter's 47.712
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (+8)

Game 851-852: Manhattan at Rider (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 49.766; Rider 53.955
Dunkel Line: Rider by 4
Vegas Line: Rider by 6
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+6)

Game 853-854: Niagara at Canisius (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.821; Canisius 62.253
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 4
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-4)

Wunderdog

Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Pick: Ottawa +105

Pittsburgh heads north, sitting at 2-2 as their veteran guns haven't clicked offensively. Their defense is also ranked 19th in goals allowed. They've lost two in a row, including their last game as a -140 favorite in Winnipeg. They were beat 4-2, blowing a 2-0 lead. The Penguins are 1-4 in their last five games playing on one days rest and face an Ottawa team playing very well at fourth in the NHL in goals scored, fifth in goals allowed, fourth on the power play and eight in penalty killing. They come off their first loss giving up 6 goals to offensive-minded Tampa Bay, but the Senators are 4-1 in their last five after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game. The Senators are also 7-3 in their last ten in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and when these teams meet home ice has meant a lot. The home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings. Play Ottawa.

Marc Lawrence

Drake vs. Missouri St.
Pick: Missouri St.

When the Bears host the Bulldogs in a Missouri Valley Conference clash at the JQH Arena Missouri State will do so knowing they are 17-3-1 ATS a host in this series. With Drake in off a 5-point win as 10-point dogs, and the Bears off a 1-point loss, look for those numbers to improve here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Missouri State.

Steve Merril

Phoenix vs. Dallas
Pick: Dallas

Dallas will be playing just their second game over the last 7 days, and since they are catching Phoenix at the perfect time, we’ll back the home team in this game on Sunday night.

Phoenix is in a tough scheduling spot for this game tonight. The Suns will be playing their fourth game in five nights while playing on a back-to-back road set. Phoenix will have 2 full days off after this game so they will be looking ahead to that time off. The Suns played a terrific game in San Antonio last night as they shot 50.6% (41-81) from the field and 50% (6-12) from three-point land. Despite that, Phoenix still lost that game by 9 points (108-99) and since they have to wheel right back and play tonight on tired legs, we do not expect a repeat of that performance.

Dallas comes into tonight’s game off a 113-107 home loss to San Antonio on Friday night. The final score was misleading as the Mavericks were thoroughly out-played in that game and they trailed by 20 points late in the fourth quarter. Off that bad performance, we expect Dallas to bounce back with a strong effort tonight. Prior to that loss, the Mavericks had won five of their previous six games with their lone loss coming in overtime by just 3 points to Oklahoma City. The Mavericks have also covered the pointspread in 6 of their last 7 games which shows they are undervalued in the betting market. Dallas will be playing just their second game over the last 7 days, and since they are catching Phoenix at the perfect time, we’ll back the home team in this game on Sunday night.

Bruce Marshall

Creighton vs. Southern Illinois
Pick: Creighton

Creighton in a puzzling funk at the moment after two straight defeats have knocked the Bluejays down several notches on the rankings ladder. But can’t think of a better Valley foe to get well against than SIU, which has dropped 8 of its last 9 SU for flustered new HC Barry Hinson. Saluki bench production (or lack thereof) has become acute in recent weeks, and note the pair of near-identical 19-point wins by Creighton in this series last term, when Bluejay star F Doug McDermott hit 71.4% from the floor over the two meetings.

David Chan

New Orleans vs. Memphis
Pick: Memphis

New Orleans is 14-29 SU and 23-20 ATS; it's coming off a 100-82 loss vs. Houston as a 2.5 point fav on the 25th. The Hornets are struggling once again, and have failed to reach the 100 point plateau in their last eight vs. Memphis. They really struggled vs. the Rockets, shooting just under 39% from the floor, and were a deplorable 3 for 20 from behind the arc.

It's interesting to note that New Orleans is 0-3 ATS this year vs. good defensive teams that allow 91 points or less per contest.

Memphis is 28-14 SU and 25-16-1 ATS; it's coming off a 101-77 win over Brooklyn as a 4 point favorite on the 25th.

The Grizzlies are firing on all cylinders right now, both on the defensive and offensive ends of the floor, and they'll be looking to win for their fifth time in six games tonight.

Memphis has been getting it done all year with tough defensive play, allowing 89.2 PPG; it's been even better of late, allowing just 79.4 over its past five.

One person you'll want to keep your eyes on is Rudy Gay who has averaged 26 points on 57.1% shooting in his last three vs. the Hornets.

Note that not only is Memphis 14-7 ATS in front of the home town crowd, but it's also 19-11 ATS as a favorite this year.

No need to overanalyze this selection as these two teams are clearly moving in opposite directions. Expect the home side to take full advantage of the struggling Hornets, and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover!

Jesse Schule

Philadelphia vs. Tampa Bay
Pick: Over

After losing three straight to start the season, the Philadelphia Flyers have now put together back to back wins in their last two games. Philly won in a blowout over Florida on Saturday, scoring seven goals on 26 shots, and winning 7-1.

The Flyers had the best powerplay in the NHL last season, and they scored a pair of goals on the man-advantage against Florida.

Philly will play in Tampa in their second game in as many nights, taking on the Lightning on Sunday. Ilya Bryzgalov has been fantastic in his last two starts, allowing just two goals in his last two games, and stopping 30 shots against the Panthers. Bryzgalov will perhaps give way to Michael Leighton in this back to back situation, allowing Leighton to make his first start of the season.

The Lightning are off to a great start to the season, with a record of 3-1 so far. Tampa Bay has been lighting it up on offense, scoring 19 goals in their first four games. They still have some serious questions regarding their goaltending though, as Anders Lindback has allowed eight goals in his last two starts, and he has a goals against average of 3.67 in three games.

Tampa has taken two of the last three meetings with Philadelphia, and each of those games saw the total goals scored go over. With Philadelphia playing their second game in as many nights, they might be a little sluggish in this game, and could find it difficult to slow this high octane Lightning offense.

We should see these two teams light the lamp early and often on Sunday night.

Chris Elliott

Buffalo vs. Washington
Pick: Buffalo

The Capitals have really struggled to start, winless in 4 games while the team is completely 1 dimensional with F Alex Ovechkin averaging over 23 minutes per game which is an unsustainable amount of time for any forward. The team lives and dies on the back of Ovechkin and with 1 assist, no wonder they are at the bottom of the league in points while being outscored 8-17. Ride the wave, take the Caps to lose.

The Buffalo Sabres are currently tied for 3rd spot in the Northeast Division with a record of 2-2. After beating Philadelphia and Toronto in their first two games of the season the Sabres have dropped back to back games to the Carolina Hurricanes. Forwards Thomas Vanek (9 points) and Jason Pominville (8 points) have had a great start on offense while goaltender Ryan Miller has been sharp, registering a 1.67 GAA along with a .952 save %. Overall the team is scoring 2.8 GPG and has the 4th highest shots per game total at 33.8. Buffalo has given up 12 goals on the young season, almost half of them coming when backup Jhonas Enroth was shelled for 5 goals vs Carolina.

The Washington Capitals have not looked good to start the year, going 0-3-1 to sit last in the Southeast division. Offense has been a big problem for the Caps, with superstar Alex Ovechkin still looking for his first goal of the year and sitting on just a single assist through the first four games. Washington is averaging 2 GPG on offense to sit 24th in the league at this point. Young goaltender Brayden Holtby, who excelled for Washington in last years playoffs has struggled to rekindle that magic again this season, posting a 5.03 GAA and a .863 save % in two starts this year. Defensively the Capitals have been terrible, ranking 30th in the league with a 4.3 GAA. the team has had with special teams as well, killing penalties at a mere 66.7% clip.

The Sabres won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Capitals last season. Expect Washington's troubles to continue on Sunday as they struggle to find their game in the early stages of the season. Take the Buffalo Sabres to win.

Sam Martin

Iowa at Purdue
Play: Purdue

Iowa and Purdue look to be an even matchup on paper, with each team being a bit underrated in our opinion but struggling against the powers of the Big Ten Conference. Home court advantage is huge in this matchup, and as a result we'll back the Boilermakers in this contest. Purdue is just 2-6 straight up on the road this year, but are 8-3 here on their home court including an outright win against Illinois (back when the Illini were on fire) as well as a 27-point blowout win against West Virginia in their most recent home game. Iowa allows five more ppg in conference play and own a losing road record on the season. Home court advantage ends up being the deciding factor in a Boilermakers victory!

Tony George

Oklahoma City -3.5

It is what it is. The Lakers flat out suck. The ONLY reason this line is not 6 or 7 is because it is the Lakers at home! This is not a trap line, not a sqaure bet...did I mention the Lakers suck? It used to mean something when the Lakers were at home, but it does not now. The Lakers are a hot mess and OK City one of the top teams in the NBA- No Brainer, it is what it is...OK City by 8.

Jimmy Boyd

Atlanta Hawks +5½

We played on the Knicks last night in Philadelphia and they bit us, but today I think there is some value in fading New York. They are playing off a back-to-back where they lost a divisional game the night before, so that's always tough to get up for the game the following night. The other reason I don't love them right now is they are shooting so poorly, hitting 38.6% of their shots Thursday against Boston and 34.6% last night in Philadelphia.

Atlanta on the other hand has shot well the last three games, and it's no surprise that they have won all three. They have played pretty well since the embarrassing 59 point showing at Chicago back on January 14th and I see no reason that doesn't continue here today against New York.

John Martin

Detroit Pistons +2

Any time the Orlando Magic are favored it's worth a look into fading them. Orlando has lost 15 of its last 17 games overall, and it should not be favored against the underrated Detroit Pistons Sunday. The Magic have lost four straight coming in, including a 100-106 home loss to the lowly Charlotte Bobcats, and a 90-105 road loss to these same Pistons. Detroit has gone 9-6 SU & 9-6 ATS in its last 15 games overall as it is clearly playing its best basketball of the season over the past month. Orlando is 1-9 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The Magic are 1-8 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a losing record this season. Orlando is 1-8 ATS as a favorite this season.

Jack Jones

Los Angels Clippers -7.5

After blowing a 6-point lead over the final minute to lose 100-101 at the Portland Trail Blazers last night, the Los Angeles Clippers will be highly motivated for revenge tonight. I believe they get it in blowout fashion in this home-and-home situation.

Los Angeles also comes in motivated to put an end to its 4-game losing streak. This team is still 32-13 on the season even with this recent rough stretch, and it remains one of the best squads in the league. Simply put, the Clippers will want this one more and they'll be giving 110% to get it.

Portland is just 7-13 on the road this season. It will be up against a Clippers team that is 19-5 SU & 15-9 ATS at home this year. Los Angeles is outscoring opponents by an average of 11.0 points/game at home this season.

The Blazers are 2-15 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. Portland is 16-33-2 ATS in its last 51 games following an ATS win. The Blazers are 8-22-1 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. The Clippers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Bet Los Angeles Sunday.

Freddy Wills

Utah +3

Stanford is just 1-4 on the road and they will be looking ahead to Oregon who they'll host on Wednesday. Stanford has not been able to score on the road and their defense has not been very good with a -10% margin. In conference play they have actually been worst with a 37.9% and they are not shooting poorly because they are being fouled as they are -10.6 FTA too. I expect Utah to win this game they are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 following a SU loss and 9-4 ats in their last 13 home. Coming to play at elevation is no easy task and that's why Utah has covered many of these home Pac 12 games.