Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 29

Marc Lawrence

Bulls at Heat
Play: Under

The best the Eastern Conference has to offer squares off at American Airlines in Miami when the Bulls and Heat battle as Chicago looks to avenge last year's playoff loss. If there is one staple we can rely on in games involving playoff quality teams its defense and both of these teams bring it to the table. That's confirmed by the fact they have gone UNDER the number in 10 of the last 13 games in this series. With The Bulls having stayed UNDER the total in five of their last six games on Sundays to boot, look for another low-scoring playoff intensity tussle here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the UNDER.

Rob Vinciletti

Oregon St vs. Oregon
Play: Oregon -1

The Ducks have owned the Beavers here at home winning 13 of the last 14 in the series here of late. The Ducks are 11-2 here this year and have won 5 of 6 in January. When the total is 150 1555 they have won 3 of 4. Oregon St is 0-5 straight up the last 15 years on the road when the total is this high at 150 to 155. They are 5--1 off a win and have dropped 23 of 28 on the road. In the Civil war hoops style we will back the Home team. Take Oregon Tonight.

Bryan Power

L.A. Lakers @ Minnesota
PICK: L.A. Lakers +1.5

Having lost last night in Milwaukee to fall to 1-7 SU on the road (I was on the Bucks), look for the Lakers to take this game w/ Minnesota very seriously and thus pull out the victory. LA has beaten the T'wolves 17 straight times now and has covered in each of their previous three trips to the land of 10,000 lakes. The Timberwolves are probably "feeling a bit too much of themselves" after wins over Dallas and San Antonio. I don't see them being mature enough to defeat such a desperate and focused Lakers team. This is some amazing value w/ LA actually being a slight dog here. Take note that Minnesota is 1-5 ATS following consecutive SU dog wins. Take LA Lakers.

Sean Murphy

Marist @ Fairfield
Pick: Fairfield -15

Fairfield has been a bankroll-burner lately, going 1-6-1 ATS over its last eight games, but I don't think there's any reason to get too down on the Stags right now.

Consider that they've faced a brutal schedule. Since taking care of business in a blowout win over Canisius on New Year's Day, the Stags have faced Siena, Manhattan, Loyola-Maryland, Rider, St. Peter's, and Iona in consecutive games. Only the matchup with St. Peter's was a gimme, and Fairfield had little trouble in a 75-63 win on that night.

All told, the Stags have gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS against the MAAC's weakest teams this season. Today's opponent, Marist, certainly falls into that category.

The Red Foxes have dropped six games in a row, both SU and ATS, with their only win since the start of 2012 coming against St. Peter's (they had to fight tooth and nail for a four-point decision).

Marist has done nothing but regress in conference play, particularly over the last few weeks. The Red Foxes are averaging only 59.8 points per game on a miserable 32.1% shooting over their last five contests.

Defensively, they haven't been much better, giving up 76 ppg on 47.6% shooting over that period.

The last time these two teams met, Fairfield cruised to a 55-31 victory in last year's MAAC Tournament. Since the start of 2010, the Stags are 3-1 ATS in this series, with all three of those wins coming by at least 15 points, which happens to be the current posted number today.

After a disappointing home loss against Iona on Friday, which dropped it to 5-4 in MAAC play, I'm confident we'll see Fairfield take its frustrations out on Marist this afternoon.

Jim Feist

Manhattan vs Niagara
Pick: Manhattan

Manhattan on a hot streak, winners of six straight games. But what I like about this club is how well they have covered spreads this season. Not only are they 6-1 ATS in the last seven, but they are 15-5 ATS on the season and a astonishing 11-2 ATS on the road. These clubs met just 7 days ago and while Manhattan was the straight up winner (71-64), the Jaspers didn't cover the 8 1/2 points spread - their only non- cover in the last 7 games. Now they visit Niagara on Sunday. Niagara is coming off a home loss to Loyola Maryland, 69-57. The Purple Eagles trailed almost the entire game to Loyola. It was Niagara's second straight loss after a three-game winning streak. I like teams who prove they can cover spreads and that is just what we have today with Manhattan. I don't usually like laying points on the road in conference, but this Manhattan team has been good as gold for bettors. Take Manhattan on Sunday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Oregon St +109 over OREGON

After California won at Washington last Thursday, the Golden Bears looked like they may have become the favorite to win the Pac-12. Then Cal lost at Washington State on Saturday. Enter Oregon. The Ducks followed up an impressive road win over Arizona last week with a pair of wins over USC and UCLA. With four wins in a row they now sit tied with Cal, just a half game back of Washington atop the conference standings. The Ducks are 6-2 in Pac-12 play and 15-5 overall but we're not buying in and neither are the books, who have made Oregon a very enticing -1½-point favorite at home. To emphasize a little more how the books aren't buying Oregon's success, consider that the Beavers are 3-5 in the conference and have lost 13 straight conference road games. However, this time of year, overvalued and overrated teams get exposed very quickly and the Ducks are far less talented, individually and combined, than their in-state rivals. The Beavers are so much more dangerous with the 5th most points scored per game in the country compared to the Ducks 157th ranking. In assists per game, the Beavers rank 6th while the Ducks rank 151st. In rebounds per games, the Ducks rank 240th. This is an Oregon team that has somehow managed to win a lot of games with ugly numbers and many flaws and it's simply unsustainable. The Ducks are perceived to be the better team by the betting public when in fact, they're not and what we get here is a road hungry and superior visitor taking back a small tag. Play: Oregon State +109 (Risking 2 units).

NIAGARA +3 over Manhattan

We'll stick with our philosophy here of selling high and we endorse that philosphy even more against teams on the road. The Manhattan Jaspers have won six in a row to shoot up the MAAC standings into a tie with Iona and Loyola. The Jaspers are now 8-2 in the conference and 15-7 overall. Meanwhile, the Purple Eagles are just 4-6 in the conference and 13-9 overall. Niagara went into Manhattan last Sunday and lost by just seven in a game with some interesting notes. First, the Jaspers outscored Niagara by 17 from the stripe and that's not going to happen again in a road game. Secondly, Niagara had less turnovers, more steals and outscored the Jaspers by 10 on the floor. The Purple Eagles are a nice home and cover team. They're now 17-7 against the spread (ATS) in last 24 conference games and they're 10-1 ATS in last 11 against Manhattan. The Jaspers will play their third road contest in past four games and tail end of back-to-back road contests after playing in Canisius on Friday. With two home games on deck this coming week including a showdown against Iona, the Jaspers are ripe for the taking. Play: Niagara +3 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Vegas Experts

Iowa at Indiana
Play: Indiana

The Hoosiers have been headed in the wrong direction of late, losing four of five. In comes Iowa and that should put the recent worries to bed. The Hawkeyes arrive into Bloomington also having lost four of five, but their losses have been far uglier and IU will be eager to end a 0-4 SU/ATS run in this Big 10 rivalry. Lay the points.

Scott Rickenbach

Notre Dame @ Connecticut
PICK: Notre Dame +9

With +9 now becoming available with the Fighting Irish, it's go time with this one. Connecticut is expected to have freshman Ryan Boatright back in action for this one but, simply put, the Huskies are overpriced here. UConn has lost four of their six games in January. The Huskies also are dealing with a week-long layoff here. There is likely to be some rust for UConn due to the long layoff plus there will be an adjustment period for working Boatright back into the rotation. Making it even more difficult for Connecticut to build up much of a margin in this one, note that Notre Dame has been playing very well. The Fighting Irish knocked off then #1 Syracuse last Saturday and they followed that up with a big road win (by a double-digit margin) at Seton Hall Wednesday. Notre Dame has been playing phenomenal defense and note that they're facing a Connecticut team that has failed to score more than 67 points in any of their games this month. It's simply going to be very tough for the Huskies to build much of a margin in this one and yet, they're laying big points. Yes, Connecticut won the first match-up between these teams by 14 points but much has changed since then! Consider a small play on Notre Dame plus the big points on Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Indiana Hoosiers -11.5

Indiana has dropped 4 of 5 since its 15-1 start, which is enough motivation alone for it to take things up a notch against an Iowa team with less talent. But if those 4 recent losses don't light a fire, a 4-game losing streak in this series certainly will. Indiana has been nearly unstoppable at home, where it is 12-1 and winning by an average of 21.6 points. Iowa is just 2-5 when playing away from home, losing those games by an average of 12.2 points. When odds makers have valued the Hoosiers as a favorite of 10 points or more, it has been for good reason. Indiana has laid double digits 6 times since the beginning of last season and is a perfect 6-0 ATS in those games with an average winning margin of 25.3 points. We'll lay the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit Evansville -4.5

The Purple Aces have been undervalued by odds makers all season and enter Sunday's contest at 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a result. The Indiana State Sycamores, meanwhile, have been overvalued, entering this contest on a 1-10 ATS slide. The Sycamores are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and 0-4 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Evansville lost by just 2 points as an 8-point dog on the road in the first meeting on Jan. 10, and I like it to have its revenge here. Lay the points.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit North Carolina -21

Georgia Tech has lost 8 of 9 but North Carolina isn't about to show any mercy. The Yellow Jackets have managed to win 4 in a row in this series, and that's not sitting well with the Tar Heels. Tech is really struggling and a 25-point loss to Alabama and a 32-point loss to Virginia this month clue us in that this one could get ugly in a hurry. The Heels are 13-0 at home where they are winning by an average of 25.8 points. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, and the Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 13.0 points or more. Take North Carolina.

Jack Jones

Minnesota Timberwolves -1.5

The Los Angeles Lakers are one of the worst road teams in the league. They should be catching a lot more points Sunday, but instead it's basically a pick 'em. I'll gladly side with the home favorite because of it.

The Lakers are 1-7 on the road this season. It's seriously embarrassing to watch them away from home because they play so bad. L.A. is only scoring 89.6 points/game on the road behind 42.6 percent shooting.

The Lakers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Timberwolves are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Sunday games. Minnesota is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. Western Conference. Bet the Timberwolves Sunday.

SPORTS WAGERS

NEW ORLEANS +120 over Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks are 14-6 and remain one of the most overvalued teams in the Association. It's only a matter of time before they start losing more games than they win and this is the perfect spot for that to begin. The Hawks pulled a rabbit out of their hats on Friday night in Detroit with a win in OT after trailing by 11 at the half and hitting a miracle 3-point buzzer beater to send the game into extra time. The Hawks trailed by six with 34 seconds remaining. Atlanta will now play its fifth road game in nine days and sixth game overall over that same span. Atlanta's bench still looms as a major weakness and with this relentless schedule, that weak bench will start factoring into results. The Hornets are 4-15 and that looks really ugly on paper. However, they play as hard as any team in the league and they've also had the NBA's fourth toughest schedule. New Orleans is coming off a solid 93-67 win over Orlando to snap a nine game losing streak. The Hornets are definitely deeper, they're a better rebounding team than Atlanta and their defensive numbers against much tougher competition is also better. The Hawks winning with smoke and mirrors ends here. Play: New Orleans +120 (Risking 2 units).

NEW JERSEY -5 over Toronto

We often talk about overlays but let's switch gears and talk about an underlay that exists here. New Jersey has played 20 games this year and have been favored twice. They won and covered both times they were favored and chances are this will be its easiest of them all. The Nets have won three of four and that includes a win in Philadelphia followed by a win in Cleveland. Deron Williams is playing the best basketball of his career. Williams had 34 points in Philly and followed that up with 27 points and 10 assists against the Cavs'. Anthony Morrow is also coming on with one of the sweetest shots in the game. The Nets catch the Raptors in an almost impossible spot. Toronto will play the final game of a five-game trip. It started in Los Angeles last Sunday and carried on into Phoenix, Utah and Denver. After playing in the high altitide of Utah and Denver, the Raps come back east now to play their fifth road game in seven days without the services of Andrea Bargnani. It's no coincidence that the Raps two wins on this trip came with Bargnani in and the two losses occurred with him out. We can't stress enough what a different team Toronto is without Bargnani. Not only is he a great shooter and rebounder, the whole offense goes through him. He demands double teams and that opens up everything else. Without him, the Raps are simply lost out there. With Toronto wrapping up a tough trip and without Bargnani, they're in big trouble against a team that is hot and playing with confidence. Under the outstanding tutelage of coach Avery Johnson, who demands careful attention to details and does not tolerate anyone not playing 100% all of the time, the Nets strong play continues here with an easy win. Play: New Jersey -5 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

MINNESOTA -1½ over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers have one win in eight road games. On three days rest they embarked on a two-game trip beginning yesterday in Milwaukee against the Bogut-less Bucks. They lost by 11 as a five-point choice. On the road on zero days rest the Lakers are 1-4. On one day rest, the Timberwolves are 7-3. Minnesota has won two in a row over Dallas and San Antonio. Rick Adelman has taken a young and very talented team and has them believing. Kevin Love, Michael Beasley and Ricky Rubio could instantly crack any lineup in the league. Rubio is one of the most unique players this league has ever seen. He's scary good and he's getting better with each passing game. The T-Wolves are a team that has had so many high draft picks over the past few years and we're starting to see the payoff now. The Target Center will be absolutely rocking for this one and once again, as they have been all year, the Lakers are getting far too much respect for a team that can't win on the road. Play: Minnesota -1½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Free NCAAB Play for 1/29: Oregon State Beavers +2 (-110, JustBet) over the Oregon Ducks. Oregon State is the better team this year, pure and simple. Oregon State moves the ball around really well, and outranks Oregon in points, assists, and rebounds per game. You can bet the Beavers enter this game with motivation. They have dropped two straight (both last year) to the Ducks, and thirteen of their last fourteen trips to Oregon (getting the W in 2010). This game is the perfect opportunity for the better team to avenge the losses. What better revenge scenario than in enemy territory. The Ducks are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games because they are over rated this year. The Ducks are also only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win. We'll side with the Beavers to pull out the "upset" in today's match-up. Oregon State +2. Our Free Picks are now 153-81-1, 9-1 L10. Sign up today to receive all of our free plays via email.