David Banks
Lakers / Timberwolves Under
The Los Angeles Lakers (11-8, 8-11 ATS) 15-game winning streak against the Minnesota Timberwolves (9-10, 12-7 ATS) will be on the line Sunday night when the teams clash at the Target Center in their first meeting of the season; take this one in live on NBA League Pass at 7:00 ET.
The Lakers will be forced to play this one on no rest after battling the Bucks in Milwaukee last night; LA checks in 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS on no rest to date. The changing of the guard in Tinseltown hasn’t gone as smoothly as Jack Nicholson and the rest of the celebrity faces that pack the Staples Center every home game would have liked. While Coach Mike Brown’s squad has only gone down twice as a host in 12 tries, the squad has been wretched on the road where it’s compiled 1-6 SU & ATS marks heading into Saturday night. Los Angeles still plays a solid brand of defense giving up an average of just 90.5 PPG (#5) and a 41.5 opponent shooting percentage (#5), but only Kobe Bryant, Paul Gasol, and Andrew Bynum check in as the double-digit scorers with the team scoring 92.5 PPG (#20) while shooting a wretched 27.0 percent from downtown (#30).
While the probability of the Timberwolves competing in the highly competitive Northwest Division is highly unlikely, the franchise finally finds itself back on the NBA map after Coach Rick Adelman’s squad won nine of its first 19 games. Through 19 games last season, the Timberwolves had earned just four wins and stood 8-11 against the closing pointspread. However, with the addition of Spanish sensation Ricky Rubio to the Wolves starting line-up, the squad has flourished and sits just a game under the breakeven point heading into tonight’s clash. On top of it, Minny has lined its betting backers’ pockets with some green having covered in 12 of their lined contests. Offensively, this squad attacks the glass and gives itself numerous second chance opportunities, while at the other end of the court, the squad ranks amongst the top 15 in all pertinent defensive categories. Minnesota’s gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS as a home chalk this season.
As already stated, LA has flat out owned the Timberwolves winning each of the L/15 overall meetings while covering the closing number in eight of those games. The teams split ATS in their four meetings last season with both meetings in Minnesota combining to go ‘under’ the total; the ‘under’ is 7-1-1 in the L/9 overall confrontations. LA has covered six of its L/7 trips to the Twin Cities, but has only gone 2-7 ATS its L/9 versus Northwest Division opposition. The Timberwolves have covered seven of their L/10 against +.500 opponents, but check in just 6-14 ATS the L/20 times they took on a sub .500 road team.
Andrew Lange
Montana at Portland State
Play: Portland State +4
Montana gets somewhat of a break by having two days in between conference road games but I still feel this is going to be a difficult spot for the Grizzlies. The second game of back-to-back road tilts is particularly tough in the Big Sky because schools are spaced out and they don't have the luxury of top notch travel. There are some great examples of letdowns in these situations: Earlier this season, Montana won at Northern Arizona and two days later lost by 16 at Weber State. Weber State, the best team in the Big Sky, won by 15 at Sacramento State on Thursday but turned right around and lost at 6-14 Idaho State yesterday. Montana State upset Portland State on Thursday and guess what took place on Saturday? The Bobcats lost by 17 at Eastern Washington. With only the top six teams in the Big Sky making the conference tournament, this is a very important game for Portland State (4-4). The Vikings have as much talent as anyone in the league and I'll back them in a price range where a win isn't necessary (though wouldn’t be surprising) in order to cash a ticket.
Scott Delaney
My free winner is in the mid-major Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, as I'm playing the suddenly surging Manhattan Jaspers in their quest for a season season-series sweep of the Niagara Purple Eagles in Lewiston, New York on Niagara's home court. These two just met on Jan. 22, and Manhattan took care of business in Riverdale, New York, 71-64.
Manhattan (15-7, 8-2 MAAC) made 83.3 percent of its free throws (25 of 30), including 20 of 21 in the second half to pull away and seal the win after building a 31-24 lead at halftime. The Jaspers held Niagara to just 8 of 28 from the field (28.6 percent), while the Purple Eagles (9-13, 4-6) finished shooting 38.3 percent (23 of 60) and were outrebounded 38-31 by the MAAC's top team in both those categories. Niagara is in after a second-straight loss, a 69-57 setback to Loyola (MD), while the Jaspers won their sixth straight with a 78-66 victory at Canisius.
Though Manhattan is outscoring opponents by a somewhat slim 69-63 final this season overall, it has increased its intensity on offense during its hot stretch, making life complicated for their conference foes. I saw the highlights of its last game, and once last-place Canisius gave Manhattan a scare for 20 minutes, and took a 35-33 lead in to the locker room, the Jaspers erupted with a 45-point second half to put the Griffins in check.
I'm banking that was a wake-up call for the Jaspers. And even if Niagara challenges for the win in the contest, fact is Manhattan is arguably the hottest team in the MAAC. It's going to be another late finish for the Jaspers. Lay the chalk.
1♦ MANHATTAN
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is in ACC action, as North Carolina hammers Georgia Tech all day long at the Smith Center.
Do you realize that North Carolina is actually on a four game straight up and against the spread losing skid versus Tech?
That's right, G-Tech has been the straight up and against the spread winner the last four times they have faced Roy Williams' team. That will change today, as Tech first-year mentor Brian Gregory tries to rebuild the Yellow Jackets brand this season.
Tech has taken some big lumps of late in conference action, losing their last four conference games, including rather ugly defeats at the hands of Virginia (32-point loss), and Miami-Florida (15-point setback). Expect this one to get away from the Rambling Wreck pretty quickly, as there are not too many schools out there that own four straight series wins over the Tar Heels.
North Carolina just toyed with N.C. State on Thursday night, and they also handled Virginia Tech the game before by double-digits, as it looks like UNC has shaken off that ugly loss to Florida State just over two-weeks ago.
This one gets ugly, lay it with North Carolina as they snap the four-game series losing streak in convincing fashion today at home.
4♦ NORTH CAROLINA
Derek Mancini
Today I'm siding with South Florida over Providence in Big East action. It's the classic offense vs. defense argument, as the Friars are all offense, while the Bulls have the best scoring defense in the conference.
I'm backing the Bulls and their defense here, which allows just 56 ppg on 41% shooting at home this season. They're coming off an embarrassing ass-whipping at the hands of Marquette and I suspect they'll be highly motivated in their return home today. Remember guys, this is the same team that upset Seton Hall and whipped St John's in their last two home games.
Providence meanwhile is struggling, losers of 7 of their L8 (2-6 ATS), and they have no one to blame but themselves, surrendering 73 ppg on 43% shooting (41% shooting from 3-point) over their L5 games. They may have 4 double-digit scorers, but that means nothing if you allow the opposing team to have the night of their life on the other end. Bulls shoot a solid 46.5% at home, so given the opportunities (which they will have) they can bury this Friars team.
Finally, from a match up standpoint, there's some serious mismatches in the frontcourt. Sure, Council and Cotton are great in the backcourt, but the Friars are going to need balance if there going to keep this game competitive, and I just don't see that happening. Bulls defense is good enough to slow down this Providence backcourt, but the same cannot be said about the Friars. Long story short, lay it with South Florida over Providence Sunday.
2♦ SOUTH FLORIDA
Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. The Nets may be playing well (winners of 3 of their L4 SUATS), but I'm not ready to just assume they're going to cover what appears like a "gimme" here. Oddsmakers are well aware that the public is going to fade Toronto, especially with Bargnani out, and yet the line is still begging for Nets action. Not buying it.
New Jersey is still too inconsistent to trust in this spot, and while the Raptors aren't any better, at the very least they delivered outright wins in two of their L3 road games. Yes, I'm well aware that Bargnani is out, but how many times have I told you not to make a knee-jerk bet based on an injury. The guys in Vegas already factored in his absence. Moreover, don't be discouraged by their recent loss at Denver, that was an awful match up, but today's is much more favorable.
Obviously, the Nets are dealing with their own injuries at center, making it a better spot for Aaron Gray. Not to mention, Klieza, Calderon, and DeRozan all played terrible against Denver, and should be highly motivated to bounce back against a very beatable Nets D (allow 99 ppg on 48.5% shooting at home this season).
Finally, not a lot of positive trends for either team, but the Nets have been especially suspect at home, going 3-11 ATS in their L14 home games. Also, they're just 1-5 ATS in their L6 games following a SU win. All in all, small play on Toronto plus the points over New Jersey Sunday.
1♦ TORONTO
Chris Jordan
My free winner comes out of the Big Ten Conference, as one of the biggest rivalries in college sports is renewed in Columbus, Ohio, as the 22nd-ranked Michigan Wolverines visit the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes. And even though the Scarlet and Gray appear well on their way toward a No. 1 seed in March's big ball, that doesn't justify giving two touchdowns to an arch-rival that has enough talent to get to the Sweet 16.
I know Ohio State has won five straight meetings in this series, not to mention seven of the last eight, but Michigan has covered six straight - four of the last five which have been double-digit spreads. The fifth had the Buckeyes laying -9 to Michigan. The average margin of win during Ohio State's win streak is 6.4 points per game. That in no way equates to the Buckeyes suddenly earning the right to laying -14 points in this game.
Michigan has a stingy defense that ranks third in scoring, allowing just 60.6 pooints per game, and will be relentlesss in keeping the Buckeyes quiet while trying to pull the outright upset. Whether or not the Wolverines can do so with the Buckeyes sporting a 15-0 home mark, that remains to be seen. But Michigan is on ATS win streaks of 17-4 in conference play, 12-3 on the road and 21-7 as a road underdog and 4-0 in Columbus.
Give me the points.
1♦ MICHIGAN
Matt Rivers
Sunday's comp play winner will be to definitely go against the Orlando Magic as they play host to the Indiana Pacers.
The Magic are owners of a decent 12-7 straight up record, but that loss to Boston on Thursday - you know, the one in which they led by 27-points and wound up losing by 8-points - has had some aftershocks, as Orlando was hammered on Friday night by 26-points in a loss at New Orleans.
Indiana comes into this one having dropped two of their last three straight up, but the Pacers have made good on two in a row, and three of their last four when installed as the underdog, and with Orlando obviously reeling from that loss to Boston, I think today is the perfect day to back the Pacers as they look to end a string of six straight losses to the Magic.
Orlando's overall slide of 2-4 straight up, and 2-5 against the spread coupled with their 3-8 spread mark their past 11 versus the Central Division does not bode well for a play on the home team.
Pacers my Sunday comp play winner in the NBA.
1♦ INDIANA
Dom Chambers
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Minnesota Timberwolves against the Los Angeles Lakers.
These Lakers may have Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, but there is something wrong with this group of Lakers.
Saturday night, their offense disappeared and the Milwaukee Bucks was able to come away with a 100-89 victory.
On a back-to-back situation, the Lakers must face the feisty Minnesota Timberwolves. With Kevin Love providing the front-court power and rookie Ricky Rubio providing the backcourt spark, the Lakers will have a tough time keeping up.
Teams with a fast point guard have given the Lakers troubles and Rubio will have an edge over Derrick Fisher.
The Lakers are 1-7 straight up and ATS on the road. In the Lakers’ last five games, they are only averaging 86.4 points a game, while giving up 89.8 points a game.
The Timberwolves have turned things around, winning five of their last seven games. They are averaging 95.1 points a game. They give up 93.5 points, but the Lakers will be hard-pressed to keep pace with the T-Wolves.
Take Minnesota.
3♦ MINNESOTA
Larry Ness
Michigan +14
Ohio State won all three from arch-rival Michigan last season but I'm betting the gap has closed quite a bit between these two since then. The Buckeyes lost three key players from LY's team, three-point shooting guard Diebler (12.6 PPG / 114 made three-pointers), "do-everything" swingman Lighty (12.1-4.0-3.3) and the "ultimate teammate" in the 6-8 Lauderdale. Meanwhile, Michigan head coach John Beilein continues to 'grow' this Wolverine program. Freshman guard Burke (14.1-3.7-5.0) is even better than advertised and joins now sophomore Hardaway (15.2-3.6), who leads the team in scoring. Novak (9.5-4.8) and Douglass (7.6) have been around "forever" and are now seniors, giving Michigan a terrific perimeter group. Size is a little bit of a problem, as the 6-9 Smotrycz (8.9-5.7) and the 6-8 Morgan (7.6-5.0) will have their hands full with Ohio State's Sullinger. There is no doubt that Sullinger (17.3-9.3) will be the best big man on the court but the Buckeyes are NOT a deep team. Fellow freshman turned sophomores like the 6-7 Thomas (14.7-4.3) and guard Craft (8.1-3.1-5.0) are quality players but other than senior guard Buford (15.2-4.7-3.3), the Buckeyes are a 'little light.' Note that while Ohio St made it a 3-0 sweep last year, NONE of the three were decided by more than NINE points. Match that with Michigan's 20-5-1 ATS record as an underdog since the beginning of last year and you have a 'take' with the Wolverines in this one!
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Ohio State/ Michigan Under 127: This is a huge rivalry game and to me that should translate into these teams really playing a slow pace, while looking for that open shot. The Michigan Offense is average at best, putting up just 68.9 ppg, but on the road they have struggled some, putting up just 63.6 ppg. OSU doesn't have those problems on off as they come in averaging 78 ppg overall and 79.8 ppg at home, but they will be facing a tough defense today. Michigan has allowed 69.6 ppg on the road this year, but just 62.4 ppg overall and 60.6 ppg within the Big 10. OSU knows a little something about defense, as they come in allowing just 55.9 ppg overall, but a mere 52.3 ppg at home, including that same 52.3 ppg in their conference home games. The way the Wolverines have played defense this year i really expect them to hold OSU in the mid to upper 60's at best, while this tough OSU defensive team should keep Michigan around 55.
Jeff Scott Sports
2 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Miami Over 191: (Google Play) Not really worrying about the Bulls scoring points as they just have a lot of depth to do that with, but without Deng they will lose a defensive presence and that should allow the Heat to get plenty of points of their own. The Heat are 2nd in then league in scoring as they come in averaging 104.2 ppg overall and 105.8 ppg at home. Wade looked excellent vs the Knicks and with him healthy that just gives them one more weapon. The Heat really look to push the ball at home and will look to to that here vs a Bulls team that has been weakened a bit at the defensive end with the loss of Deng. Miam also shoots 50.4 % at home and 43.9% from long range, while the bulls have allowed teams to shoot for 44.8% overall and 39.8% from long range. The Bulls have averaged 99.1 ppg on the road this year and if Miami pushes the tempo like I expect they will then the Bulls are more than capable of hitting at least 95 points in this one, while Miami should be good for no less than 97 on their home floor here. This one may hit 200, so go with the Over.
WUNDERDOG
Indiana at Orlando
Pick: Orlando -3
Orlando has lost three of its last four games, and the most recent was a 93-67 blowout defeat to the awful New Orleans Hornets on Friday night. That's the game Dwight Howard slammed his own teammates. "I look at guys and they don't look like they want to play," Howard said "I told them at halftime, “If you don't want to play, just stay in the locker room, because it don't make sense for a team who we should beat to just demolish us." So this is their first game since that debacle and this is their first home game since blowing a 27-point lead to Boston. There's a LOT on the line for the Magic, including trying to keep Howard from leaving town via a trade. Orlando has been a great bounce back team, as the Magic is 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 games following a loss of more than 10 points. Indiana comes to town and the Pacers are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog of +0.5 to +4.5, 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of +0.5 to +4.5. And the Pacers are just 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings with Orlando. Play the Magic.
Steve Janus
Dallas Mavericks -5.5
The Mavericks are expected to get back Dirk Nowitzki for today's game against the Spurs, and are without question worth a small play as a 5.5-point favorite. The Spurs have won just two road games all season, and are just 3-14 ATS in their last 17 road games. The Mavericks are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games overall and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
South Florida/ Providence Over 122.5: I know that South Florida plays a slow down pace and they have played good defense this year, but the friars can score and they don't play good defense. 7 of teh Friars 8 conference games have hit at least 123 points and if ya take out the 89 points that were scored in the Georgetown game then their other 7 games have averaged 147 ppg. The Friars come in averaging 69.6 ppg overall and 66 ppg in the Big East, while on the defensive end they have allowed 72 ppg on the road, 74.4 ppg in the Big East and 81 ppg in their last 3 overall. Even a mediocre Bulls offense should be able to score on these guys, as they have proven it by putting up 75 on a bad Depaul Defense a few games a go. The Bulls at the defensive end have been solid, allowing just 58.9 ppg overall and 56.1 ppg at home and While i don't expect the Friars to be held below 60 points, should they at least notch 68 then we will be golden cause i expect no less than 65-70 form the Bulls. I expect a bit of a faced paced game that will put at least 130 points on the board.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Montana/ Portland State Over 144: (Added) Running a bit behind today so iIl be kinda brief with this one. Montana is not a faced paced offense, but they do put up 69.1 ppg in conference play, which is also what they averaged overall and on the road. Montana's offense has been very solid of late as they put up 74 points or more in 6 of their last 8 games, while averaging 74.3 ppg over that span. Thos numbers should not drop in this one as PSU has allowed 74 ppg overall and 76 ppg in conference play. On the other side we have a PSU squad that has averaged 76.1 ppg in conference play and they should be able to put some points up on this Grizzlies squad that has allowed 65 pg on the road. Both teams should easily hit 72 points in this one. KEY TREND--- PORTLAND ST is 14-4 OVER in home games versus teams who average 33 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+games since 1997.
3 UNIT PLAY
Iowa +11.5 over INDIANA: (Added) Iowa really has just 2 bad losses in the conference (Mich State and OSU), and they do come in just 2-4 in their last 6 games, but this team is not playing all that bad. Iowa's other 2 Big 10 losses were by just 6 and 3 points, while they have beaten Michigan at home and Wisconsin and Minnesota on the road, so I do believe they can play with the Hoosiers here. The Hoosiers had a great start to their and have pulled some major upsets along the way, but they are still a very young team that has also played down to their competition as well, like losing at home to Minnesota, losing at Nebraska and beating Michigan by just 2 at home. Neither teams has been winning that much of late, but I feel that Iowa has more than enough to stay with a slightly overrated Indiana squad here. KEY TREND---INDIANA is 3-12 ATS after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.