Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, January 30, 2011

Tom Freese

New Orleans Hornets at Phoenix Suns
Prediction: New Orleans Hornets

Phoenix is 21-24 straight up this year. The Suns are 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as favorites. The Suns are 2-7 ATS their last 9 games as home favorites. The Suns are 0-4 ATS after allowing less than 75 points in their last game. New Orleans is 31-17 straight up this year. The Hornets are 9-0 ATS their last 9 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Hornets are 18-7-1 ATS their last 26 games as underdogs. New Orleans is 11-5 ATS their last 16 games and they are 4-1 ATS with no rest.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Washington State +4

The Cougars bring back a solid group of players that remember last season's losses to rival Washington all too well. Those defeats will fuel a strong performance Sunday evening. The Huskies are rolling with 3 straight explosive offensive performances, but I expect Washington State to slow them way down today. The Cougars are very disciplined and fundamentally sound on the defensive end and are allowing just 58.7 ppg on their home floor as a result. This virtually impenetrable "D" has led to a nice 8-2 home mark. It is also worth noting that Washington is a lousy 1-10 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in 3 straight games under coach Romar. It is also worth noting that the Cougars are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games. Lastly, plays on home teams checking in off an upset loss to a conference rival, provided they are up against an opponent that scored 80 points or more in a win over a conference rival in its last game, are an impressive 64-32 ATS since 1997. This 66.7% success rate is plenty good enough to warrant a small play here. Take the points.

Charlie Scott

N Iowa vs. Missouri St
Play: Over 122

I'll play this game over the low total ! With a Total this low the only way to play it is Over, the oddsmaker doesn't leave much room for error figuring even on an off night, we're looking at a minimum 110 points scored. My Total Power Ratings made this game 128 and 132. Tonight's game is the Missouri Valley game of the week on ESPNU, meaning we will get both teams best effort. N Iowa 3-1 OVER last 4 games, Missouri st 4-0 Over their last 4.

Rocketman

Rhode Island vs. Massachusetts
Play: Rhode Island +1.5

Massachusetts is 8-19 ATS since 1997 and 1-5 ATS last 3 years as a home favorite of 3 points or less or a pick. Rhode Island is 10-3 ATS at Massachusetts since 1997. Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. Rams are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Massachusetts. Road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Rhode Island today!

Rob Vinciletti

Washington U vs. Washington State
Play: Washington U -4

The Huskies have controlled the series of late with Washington St. They have won and covered the last four over the last 3 years. The Huskies are also a solid 6-1 straight up and ats as a road favorite from -3.5 to -6 the past few years. In games vs winning teams they have covered 7 of their last 10. Washington St struggles with teams who can score as evidenced by their 0-8 straight up and ats log vs teams who score 77 or more in the second half of the season the last 2+ years. When installed as a home dog in this range they are 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ats. When the posted total is 150 to 160 they have lost and failed to cover in 4 of 5 games. Look for Washington to take another from their in state rival.

BIG AL

Washington @ Washington State
PICK: Washington -4

This is a big rivalry game, of course, so the highly-ranked Huskies won't be looking past the Cougars tonight. And Washington comes into this game off an 88-75 victory eight days ago vs. Arizona State. In that game, U-Dub shot 54.4 percent from the floor for its 3rd straight double-digit win, and sixth double-digit win in its last seven games. I don't expect much to change on Sunday, as conference road favorites of less than 14 points are a super 227-148 ATS off a win, if they are playing with at least 5 days of rest. And the Cougars are a poor 11-22 ATS off a straight-up loss. With Wazzu in off a 65-63 defeat to Arizona, we'll lay the small number with the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. And don't miss any of my big Basketball Winners on Sunday, including an Elite Info play out of a 63-20 ATS System.

DAVID MALINSKY

AFC @ NFC
PICK: Over

No, we are not going to make a full play here. But there have been enough requests for a break-down of this “stand alone” that we can offer something worthwhile, if played at the right level. If you must have some entertainment, there is genuinely enough here to make a small play.

The silliest All Star games are the NFL and NHL, largely because contact is a major part of those sports, and contact disappears in these showcases. So naturally the oddsmakers make the Totals higher, but in this case still not high enough – there have already been 11 Pro Bowls in this millennium, and seven of them have topped this Total. We would not be surprised to see another.

Here is the base – in these modern times, pass defense is all about blitzing and disguising coverages. It just so happens that the best two defenses in the NFL are meeting for the Vince Lombardi Trophy next week and how do they do it? Plenty of blitzes and changing looks from their 3-4 schemes, trying to keep the opposing QB’s out of rhythm. But that disappears here. Defenses are forced to run a 4-3 at all times, no blitzes are allowed, and there can not be more than four DB’s on the field at any time. QB’s are also allowed to throw the ball away without risk of intentional grounding being called. So the rules aid the passing game, and the oddsmakers try to adjust accordingly. But not quite enough, in this instance.

Here is the added edge this time. Because of the Super Bowl, Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Nick Collins, Clay Mathews, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are missing from the defenses. They will also be without Nnamdi Asomugha, Lance Briggs, Dwight Freeney, Ed Reed, Asante Samuel, Ndamukong Suh, Brian Urlacher and Patrick Willis because of injury. Yes, the offenses are also missing some key cogs, but not nearly to this extent. So if you need the action, there is nothing wrong with a 2* wager here, in a game in which it would be no surprise at all if the losing team is able to score into the 30’s, especially with some tough competitors at the QB positions that will definitely play to win the game, and each side having home-run threats at RB.

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit @ Wisconsin-Green Bay
PICK: Wisconsin-Green Bay -3

Detroit is 11-11 SU, but 0-5-1 ATS its last six games. This is a big revenge game for Wisconsin- Green Bay which lost at Detroit on Dec. 30 when the Titans, who have a 45% field goal percentage this season, shot 57.4 percent from the floor. Detroit is led by guards Ray McCallum who averages 14.5 points per game and Chase Simon with 12.5. Center Eli Holman averages 11.5 points and 10.7 rebounds. The Titans have lost four of their last five games winning only against lowly Youngstown State. Wisconsin-Green Bay is coming off a tough, two-point loss against Wright State but they are 13-3 ATS following a loss. Green Bay has won five of its last seven games with the only other loss being at Butler. Guard Rahmon Fletcher averages 16.2 points per game and he'll make McCallum work hard on both ends. Fletcher is followed by Bryquis Perine with 11.2 points per contest. This is Detroit's fourth road game in 11 days and I don't believe they're up to the task. I'm laying the small number with Wisconsin-Green Bay on Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on St. John's +8.5

After getting absolutely crushed at Georgetown, St. John's will be extremely motivated for Sunday's contest with Duke. In fact, the Red Storm are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points. The Johnnies won't be lacking any confidence against this Blue Devil bunch either. They have played Duke very tough the last two seasons to earn covers. The time to fade Duke is when it is up against the physical Big East teams. Consider that coach K's kids are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 vs. the Big East. Specifically, Duke is just 2-6 ATS in its last 8 vs. the Red Storm. Duke is just 1-7 ATS if it checks into a game off 2 covers in its last 3 this season. The Johnnies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after trailing their last 3 contests by 5+ points at the half. Take St. John's and the points.

Jim Feist

Boston at Los Angeles
Take Boston

A rematch of last year's NBA Finals. In fact, these clubs haven't met since game 7 of the finals. The Lakers have had an up and down season, have to wonder about motivation for these guys. They blow out Utah on Tuesday night, 120-91, then lose at home to the Kings on Friday, 100-95. Celtics getting some front line bodies back, which they need for a big Lakers squad. Perkins and Garnett are both back, though Jermaine O'Neal expected miss more time. It's not often that you can get the Celtics in the dog role, one they have relished. Boston is 5-2 this season as a dog and 12-5 ATS their last 17 in the role. We'll have to see if the Celtics are looking for a bit of redemption here today or if the Lakers finally found a reason to show up. I'm counting on the former and not the latter. Take the Celtics.

Marc Lawrence

Maryland vs Georgia Tech
Play: Maryland -3

We're aware the Jackets have played giant-killer at home lately, stomping on the Tar Heels in a 78-58 blowout, then humbling the Hokies in a 15-point decision - and we won't even mention their 35-point destruction of Wake Forest on January 19. But truthfully, this is not a very good spot to back the bees. Coming off the big revenge win over Virginia Tech, the Ramblin' Wreck has careened to a 0-3-1 ATS mark after playing the Hokies. They also have another revenger on tap with Miami Fla, a true recipe for disaster since the Yellow Jackets are an awful 0-5 ATS before facing the Hurricanes. However, it's Maryland's recent series dominance that really gets our attention here. The Terps have made the Jackets their bitch by winning 21 of the last 27 meetings outright, including nine of the last 10 - with the lone loss coming in last year's ACC tournament. And despite its recent heroics, Georgia Tech is still one of the league's poorest-shooting teams and one of the worst at defending the 3-point shot. Look for veteran UM coach Gary Williams to devise a way to handcuff Tech's emerging star Iman Shumpert and bag a critical conference win for the Terrapins. With the visitor now 9-3 ATS in Maryland games this season, we'll back the Turtles. We recommend a 1-unit play on Maryland.

James Patrick Sports

Hornets vs. Suns

New Orleans is the league's hottest team, winning ten straight after winning at Golden State Wednesday. The Hornets have been doing it with defense, as they had allowed only (85) ppg (compared to their NBA-best 90.9 ppg covering the entire season) during the win streak, which included three overtimes, as well as allowing just (40.8%) FG shooting. Phoenix cooled off at end of recent road trip, and everything has the look of short-term in the desert, with recent scoring bursts by Grant Hill and Vince Carter and continuing presence of Steve Nash just serving as reminders that Suns have become an older team. Suns had also covered only (7) of first (20) at US Airways Center. Big Game James Patrick's Sunday NBA complimentary selection is New Orleans Hornets.

EZWINNERS

New Orleans Hornets +1

The New Orleans Hornets are red hot as they are riding a ten game winning streak as they face off against the Suns. New Orleans has been getting it done on the defensive end of the floor, which is something that that Suns rarely do. I always like to take a look at underdogs that are superior defensive teams and that is the case here. The Hornets have been very good in the underdog role as they are 18-7-1 against the spread as an underdog, while the Suns are only 2-7 against the spread in their last eight games as a home favorite. Look for another strong defensive effort out of New Orleans as they extend their winning streak to eleven games. Take the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA –2 over Denver

Denver is 28-18, they’ve won three straight on the road, four straight overall and they’ve won eight of its last 10 ball games. The 76ers re 20-26, they’re in the weak East and they’re just 3-3 over their last six games. One would think that the Nuggets should be favored here, as the good teams from the West are almost always favored against weak or average teams from the East. The 76ers are not a weak team at all. They started the year out 2-10 and have been coming on ever since. They beat the Nuggets in Denver in late December and there’s no reason they can’t do it again in their own backyard. Philly is coming off a loss to the surging Grizz but had a 21-point late third quarter lead before blowing it by being outscored 42-21 in the fourth. That’s not going to happen again to this well coached and very good defensive club. Denver will also play its fourth in a row on the road and thus far they have one lousy win away from home against teams over .500. In other words, they’ve beaten every dreg in the league on the road and yet they still have 13 road losses in 21 games. The 76ers are also under .500 but this is by far the best below .500 team in the Association and won’t be under that mark when the season ends. Play: Philadelphia –2 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).