Dave Price
1 Unit on Michigan State -10.5
The Spartans will not be lacking motivation when they hit the floor against the Hoosiers Sunday. Off 3 straight defeats, they are chomping at the bit to get back in the win column. Going back to 1998, Michigan State has won 10 straight at home over Indiana by an average score of 76 to 63. The Hoosiers are coming off a big upset win over Illinois. They will have a very tough time bringing the same level of intensity with them on the road, where they are 0-8 this season. Off a home loss Michigan State has been deadly. In fact, Sparty is 6-0 ATS off a home defeat over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average of 14.2 points. This is a must-win game for the Spartans, and I fully expect them to take care of business against the less-talented Hoosiers. Lay the points.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic
The Magic can name the score here as we'll keep going against the Cavs until they prove they can actually stay within double digits of any decent NBA team. You know the routine by now. Cleveland has zero wins in regulation since November, losing 19 straight and 29 of 30, while going 7-22-1 ATS over that span. To make matter worse, they are 1-7 ATS L8 visits to Orlando and 3-12 ATS vs. the Magic overall. Lay the points.
Play on: Orlando
Tom Stryker
New Orleans @ Phoenix
Pick: New Orleans +1.5
After ripping off 10 consecutive wins, New Olreans finally slipped at Sacramento last night. With the pressure of the streak now off, the Hornets will be able to focus on a Phoenix team that has given them fits lately. The Suns have posted SU and ATS wins in four of the last five meetings and they'll take the floor tonight with a ton of confidence off their home upset win over Boston on Friday night.
If you're worried about possible fatigue for first-year coach Monty Williams' men, go ahead and put your mind at ease. In the second of a back-to-back, New Orleans has manufactured a profitable 49-28 ATS record including a stunning 21-5 ATS in this role checking in without momentum off a SU and ATS loss. With those two parameters applied and the Hornets matched up against an opponent that owns a won/loss percentage less than .640, this golden angle improves to a nearly perfect 17-1 ATS!
As tempting as it might look to take the Suns off their impressive home win over the Celtics, this is not the right spot to ride Phoenix. According to my NBA database, guard Steve Nash and company are a woeful 56-87 ATS as a home favorite priced at -11' or less provided they check in off a SU and ATS home win and their opponent arrives off a straight up loss.
In their last three battles against the Hornets, the Suns didn't have to face All-Star guard Chris Paul. Luckily, Paul was in the lineup in yesterday's loss to the Kings (scored 19 points) and he's averaged nearly 27 points per game in his last 12 against Phoenix. Watch Chris be the difference in this Western Conference war. Take New Orleans.
Jack Jones
Duke -8.5
The Duke Blue Devils are 19-1 this season and currently the third-ranked team in the land. Duke gets the call Sunday as they travel to Madison Square Garden to face the St. John's Red Storm. The Blue Devils have won 4 straight at Madison Square Garden and 12 of 13 there. Since suffering their first loss of the season to Florida State, Duke has reeled off four consecutive victories in blowout fashion. They beat Virginia by 16, NC State by 14, Wake Forest by 24 and Boston College by 16. St. John's is just 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games, getting blown out the majority of the time. They lost to Notre Dame by 15, Syracuse by 17, Louisville by 25 and Georgetown by 25.
This play falls under a system that is 73-30 (71%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (DUKE) - an explosive offensive team (>=78 PPG) against an average offensive team (67-74 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games. Duke is scoring 85.6 PPG this season while St. John's is averaging 68.8 PPG. The Blue Devils only allow 63.9 PPG while the Red Storm give up 66.7 PPG. Simply put, the Red Storm doesn't have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Blue Devils in this one. St. John's is 1-10 ATS in home games after playing a road game over the last 2 seasons. Take Duke Sunday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Michigan State -10.5
The Spartans will not be lacking motivation when they hit the floor against the Hoosiers Sunday. Off 3 straight defeats, they are chomping at the bit to get back in the win column. Going back to 1998, Michigan State has won 10 straight at home over Indiana by an average score of 76 to 63. The Hoosiers are coming off a big upset win over Illinois. They will have a very tough time bringing the same level of intensity with them on the road, where they are 0-8 this season. Off a home loss Michigan State has been deadly. In fact, Sparty is 6-0 ATS off a home defeat over the last 3 seasons, bouncing back to win by an average of 14.2 points. This is a must-win game for the Spartans, and I fully expect them to take care of business against the less-talented Hoosiers. Lay the points.
Matt Rivers
Maryland -2
I'm starting to do a 180 real quickly with these Terrapins. No I still do not believe that Gary Williams has one of his more talented and better teams but with the way Jordan Williams has been dominating the paint and with the improvement that Maryland has been showing I'm starting to fear that turtle ever so slightly.
Georgia Tech has played far better of late as well and especially so at home where they have actually been a good team in recent weeks. But Paul Hewitt is still a coach who has not been able to get his points across and the Yellow Jackets are one of the youngest teams in the country, literally. I think out of the 350 or so schools Tech is collectively more experienced than only 12 or 13 others. Could the improvements be happening as the players start to mature? Eh, maybe a little, but frankly playing games at home should provide victories over Wake, North Carolina and Virginia Tech, young or not.
There is some talent on this Jacket team with Iman Shumpert, Brian Oliver, Daniel Miller and Glen Rice among others and I even backed them in the easy win and cover over the Tar Heels. But the 13-7 Terps have a monster in the middle in Williams who is a double double machine and overall are the better team on the court tonight.
This game should be a battle throughout and far from a blowout but in the end Tech's good fortune of late should come to an end as Hewitt has been a dud and should continue to be a dud coaching his still very young Jackets.
SPORTS WAGERS
ST. JOHN’S +8½ over Duke
For the first time since early September there is no football games to wager on so the masses will have to turn to basketball to parlay their Super Bowl selection onto. The action really heats up this week leading up to the Championship game and the books have to be especially sharp. The Dukies always attract a lot of public interest and they come into this game ranked #3 in the country with a 16-1 record. The Blue Devils are not only winning but they’ve been whacking every team they play recently. Duke’s last four wins have been by 16, 14, 24 and 16 points respectively, all against ACC opponents. What that does, combined with their immense popularity, is create an inflated line on them. However, the ACC is not that strong this season and might just be the worst “big conference” in the land. The Dukies are the only ranked team in the ACC. Now they’ll step out of conference and play a team from the wickedly powerful Big East. The Big East is populated by seven ranked teams and that doesn’t include Cincinnati or Marquette, two clubs that could also be ranked and nobody would blink an eye. The Johnny’s are 4-5 in that conference and they already have wins over Notre Dame and against a Hoyas team that went into Villanova yesterday and beat them. The Red Storm is not going to attract many today but they’re very capable of pulling off the upset or staying well within this margin. The bottom line is that if you wager on the Dukies today, you’re going to pay a big premium to do so and that never comes recommended. Overlay. Play: St. John’s +8½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Dayton +8 over DUQUESNE
The Duquesne Dukes are 6-0 in the A-10 and they deserve to be. This team is no fluke and this could be the year they make the dance. They shoot well, they rebound well and they’re #1 in the country in assists per game. The Dayton Flyers are just 3-3 in the conference but don’t ever count this team out. The Flyers’ résumé is better than most people might think. They’re 5-5 against the RPI top-100. Many NCAA bound teams from the big-boy conferences haven’t played nearly that many games against the top-100 and some don’t have quite as good a record. With a schedule like that and a strong record the Flyers could very well earn a spot as one of the many at-large teams. This game is huge for the visitor and they’re going to have to show more passion on the road than they’ve shown thus far. The records and RPI’s to date are as follows: Dayton 15-6, RPI 76 —the Dukes 14-5, RPI 89. The RPI is a great measuring stick to determine which teams are imposters and which are not. This deep into the season it would appear that there’s really not a lot that separates these two. Wait, check that, we’re taking back 7½ big points. Play: Dayton +8 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Stan Lisowski
Georgia Tech
While it is true Maryland has dominated this series, Tech has been very strong on this floor this season, with an 8-2 straight up record, and losses, by only 3 and 1 point. They have continually been one of the top clubs in the conference when getting points as their 61% spread record would attest to in their last 50 in that role.
Tony Karpinski
New Orleans Hornets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns -1.5
If New Orleans is to bounce back, it's going to need to play better defense than it did Saturday. The Hornets allowed Sacramento to shoot 50.0 percent and outscore them 52-30 in the paint despite 21 points from power forward David West and 15 from center Emeka Okafor. In its last two contests, the Hornets have allowed the Warriors and Kings to shoot a combined 52.7 percent. New Orleans also has struggled defensively at Phoenix of late. The Suns averaged 122.0 points and shot 56.4 percent while winning their last two home games versus New Orleans, which has dropped four of five overall in the series. The Phoenix Suns are 3 games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, have held three opponents to fewer than 75 points this season for the first time since 2002-03. Vince Carter has stepped up his game and I look for the Suns to get a big win on Sunday night. Carter has totaled 39 points and shot 13 of 27 the last two games after combining for 26 on 10-of-40 shooting the previous four contests. The veteran swingman has averaged 27.3 points his last 12 contests against the Hornets. Phoenix wins by 7.
Ben Burns
New Orleans @ Phoenix
PICK: Under 196
I won with the Hornets 'over' the total last night. That was at Sacramento though, a game the Hornets were favored for. Tonight, the Hornets find themselves as (slight) underdogs. While we're getting a significantly higher O/U line to work with than we were last night, I expect a lower-scoring affair.
Note that the Hornets have seen the "under" go a lucrative 16-5 when "getting points."
Even with last night's result, the Hornets have also still seen the "under" go a profitable 17-7 on the road. Their road games are now averaging 186.2 points.
Additionally, and perhaps more importantly, note that the Hornets have seen "under" go an outstanding 9-1 the last 10 times that they played the second of back to back games. They haven't been pleased with their defensive play on the first two games of this trip (they'd allowed an average of only 73.3 points in their previous three games!) and should emphasize improved play on that side of the ball here.
Of course, the Suns have long been a high-scoring and "defensively challenged" team. That sure wasn't the case last time out though. Indeed, they limited the Celtics to a mere 71 points. The Suns have now held four of their last six opponents to double-digits, two of them to 75 or less. Not surprisingly, five of their last six games have stayed below the total.
Michael Pietrus, one of five Suns to score in double-digits against the Celtics said this of his new team's defensive play against Boston: "I've heard about how the Suns are soft. That's not going to happen this year. We're not going to be soft. I'm going to make sure when we come out on the floor, we're going to come out hard."
Judging by Pietrus' comments (and by the fact that they beat Boston) it would seem that the Suns are fairly pleased with their recent improved defensive play.
Note that the Suns have seen the "under" go 2-0 this season, after allowing 85 or fewer points. They've also seen the "under" go 16-11, when coming off an "upset" win as an underdog. Consider the Under.
Info Plays
3* Iowa +7.5
Reasons why the Hawkeyes will cover:
1) This is a trap game for the Wolverines. Michigan just got done beating Michigan State on the road, and while they play Iowa today, their focus will likely be on their game against Ohio State on Thursday.
2) Michigan is just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 7.0-12.5.
3) Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5, and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Chris Jordan
AFC v. NFC (pk), at Honolulu
I like a teaser for your free play tonight, as I'm going to play the NFC and the Under on this 6-point teaser, bringing the lines to NFC +6 and Under 70 points.
This is not a game I play at a premium rate, which is why it's a free selection, so let's have some fun with it.
These two conferences have split this game since 1971, each winning 20 games. But the AFC has won six of the last 10, including last year's spectacle in Miami.
With the game back where it belongs, in Hawaii, I like what appears to be a bit more of an electrifying offense with the NFC. And make note, with the Super Bowl a week away, the Steelers' defensive stars are in Dallas getting ready to play for a championship.
Yes, the same can be said for Green Bay, but not having members of Pittsburgh's defense is much more costly than not having members of the Packers' defense.
Ray Lewis and Darelle Revis... those are the most impressive names, followed by Terrell Suggs. But that won't be enough to stymie Michael Vick, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Or how about Michael Turner, Adrian Peterson and Steven Jackson?
I certainly think that sextet out of the backfield will be better than Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Matt Cassell, Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson.
And keeping the AFC in check, not to mention the number well under a teased number, will be guys like Julius Peppers, John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, Jonathan Vilma, DeAngelo Hall and Adrian Wilson.
Believe me guys, the make up of the NFC is better than the AFC this time around. Play the NFC and Under on a 6-point teaser.
2♦ TEASER: NFC AND UNDER
Karl Garrett
Boston (+3') at L.A. LAKERS
Free play in the NBA going out on the Boston Celtics as they visit the L.A. Lakers in a Finals rematch from a season ago.
G-Man gets the feeling that Boston's 17-point loss at Phoenix on Friday can be directed attributed to them peeking ahead to this grudge match with LA.
Boston is 12-9 against the spread on the road this year, and against the Lakers they are 13-5-1 against the spread the last 19 times they have faced Los Angeles.
The Lakers have been middling of late at just 3-3 both straight up and against the spread their last 6, but you can assume they will be anything but "middling" in this one.
My problem is Los Angeles' 10-14 home spread mark this season.
Small consolation for Boston after losing the 7th and deciding game last June, but I will take Boston to gain the upperhand in this year's rivalry.
Boston plus any points the call.
1♦ BOSTON
Chuck O'Brien
Boston (+3) at L.A. LAKERS
Both Boston and L.A. clearly got caught looking ahead to this showdown Friday, when both got drilled by the Suns and Kings, respectively. So why do I trust Boston in this spot more than L.A.? Well, for one thing, the Celtics are undoubtedly still bitter about last June’s Game 7 loss at Staples Center. – without going into details, the C’s had their 19th championship in their grasp and let it slip away.
No, winning today’s game won’t erase the memory of that Game 7 loss, but you can be sure that the Celtics – playing on the Lakers’ home court – will bring their A-game today, if for no other reason than to show Kobe, Gasol, Artest, etc., that they’ll be back in five-plus months to claim what that 19th NBA crown that got away from them last spring.
The Lakers are just a .500 team over their last six games (going back to Jan. 16), and more telling, they’re in a 3-5 ATS slump. Also, while they’re 18-6 on their home court, they’ve been a money-burner at Staples (10-14 ATS).
Boston carries positive ATS trends of 6-2 as an underdog, 20-8 after a loss, 23-9-2 after a non-cover and 8-1 in Sunday contests. Still not convinced? Well, consider this: Including two NBA Finals matchups, the Celtics are 13-5-1 ATS in the last 19 meetings with the Lakers, going 7-3 in their last 10 visits to Hollywood.
Chuckster says take the points, but an outright upset is well within reason, especially considering the last Eastern Conference power to visit L.A. was the Miami Heat, who hammered the Lakers 96-80 on Christmas Day.
3♦ BOSTON
Bobby Maxwell
Boston at L.A. LAKERS (-3)
For my comp selection, the rivalry is renewed here in Los Angeles today when the Celtics arrive at Staples Center to take on the Lakers. It was a seven-game series in the NBA Finals last June with the Lakers taking the final two games to win the crown, and it will be the Lakers who get the best of things today as well. Lay the small points and play Los Angeles.
Both teams were clearly looking ahead to this game on Friday night when the Celtics fell 88-71 in Phoenix and the Lakers lost 100-95 at home to the Kings. This is the third stop on a four-game road trip for Boston and the third game of a five-game homestand for the Lakers.
The Celtics are about as healthy as they’ve been all season with reserve Glen Davis the only key component listed as questionable for today’s game. The Lakers are without key reserve Matt Barnes, but otherwise they look healthy as well.
Say what you want about Los Angeles’ defense, but the Lakers give up just 94.5 points per game at home and score 104.8. The Celtics give up just 89.6 on the road and score 95.3.
I’m expecting something relatively low scoring today and don’t expect the game to finish in the 90s for both teams. The Lakers are on ATS surges of 4-0 after a straight-up loss, 4-1 against teams with winning records and 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records. Boston is on ATS slides of 6-14-1 against Pacific Division teams, 2-6 on the road against squads with winning home records and 1-3-1 against teams with a winning percentage better than .600.
Los Angeles needs a statement win at home to quiet some critics. They’ll get it today and get great play from the inside trio of Lamar Odom, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. Lay the points and go with the Lakers.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Derek Mancini
Denver at PHILADELPHIA (-2)
Don't believe the hype! Are you really that impressed with Denver's wins over teams like Indiana, Washington, Detroit, and Cleveland? You better not be, as Philadelphia may be under .500, but they're a hell of a lot better than any of those teams. The Nuggets have been beating up on bottom feeders who tried (and failed) to play their style of basketball, that will not be the case today.
The difference between the 76ers and all those other teams that the Nuggets just beat comes down to one word: Defense. Philly allows just 93 ppg on 44% shooting at home this season, and for comparison's sake check out Denver's defensive numbers on the road: 106 ppg on 48% shooting - are you kidding me?!
Also with Martin and Harrington doubtful for this match up, I like Brand to have a big game down-low. If he can get going, this Philly offense really starts to take off, as defenses are forced to collapse, leaving Meeks and Holiday open from outstide AND Iguodala free to slash at will.
If you need any proof of the Sixers ability to slow the Nuggets down and force them to play their game, check out their last meeting - a 95-89 outright win by Philly in Denver. Of course, the 76ers have benefited from avoiding Carmelo in their last two wins over the Nuggets, but even so, I believe they are playing well enough to keep them in check... Just like they did the Jazz and Suns in their two home games prior to a disappointing loss to Memphis Friday. It's bounce back time for the Sixers, as they expose a Denver team that's been getting fat on some of the worst teams in the league over the last week. Philadlephia over Denver Sunday.
2♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Utah at GOLDEN STATE
Free play of the day on the Utah/Golden State matchup to go over the total.
Be honest... when you think Golden State you think points. And a lot of them. Whether it be our thinking of the old days when Run TMC was scoring 130 points per game back in the late 80s or Don Nelson's fun bunch of the 2000s running up and down the floor, shooting the ball with more than 12 seconds on the shot clock, we always associate the Warriors with offense.
And rightfully so.
To some extent, even though Don Nelson is no longer running things, this year's version of the Warriors is very similar to year's past.
Stephen Curry is known for his long-range shooting. Dorrell Wright is ALL offense. Monta Ellis can score from anywhere on the floor. Even free-agent acquisition big man David Lee (from the Knicks) is still scoring much like he did for New York.
What's ironic is the fact that Vegas often puts this total so high that it's very hard for these teams (and bettors) to get to this number. In fact, the last eight meetings between these two have either gone under the posted total or (on one occasion) pushed.
But we were also talking about a lot of totals in the 220s and even one in the 230s (and that's the one that pushed). Today's total will fluctuate, but it's high enough that average bettors will jump on the under based on history.
Not me, and hopefully not you. Both Utah and Golden State can score in bunches, and I just don't see much defense in this contest.
I'm looking for a final in the neighborhood of 117-110, which puts us easily over the total tonight.
3♦ OVER
Joel Tyson
Dayton (+7') at DUQUESNE
College basketball A-10 showdown between Dayton and Duquesne, and who would have thought the Iron Dukes would be the team to watch when they drew up the schedule this off-season?
Duquesne has won its last 9 games, and they have covered in their last 6 lined outings.
Pretty tempting to back them here against a Dayton squad that has lost 3 of its last 5, but with this game being played at the CONSOL Energy Center, the Penguins home, rather than at the Palumbo Center, I am going to take a shot with the Flyers to exact some revenge.
The Iron Dukes won a 73-71 nail-biter at home the last time these conference rivals met, but it is Dayton that has won 3 of the last 5 meetings overall.
In each of the last four meetings the Flyers have been favored. Now it's Duquesne's turn to lay the points. Don't think the Dukes are up to the task considering this heavy price.
Must-win situation for Dayton after getting upset by Richmond at home in its last outing. I'll grab the points with the road pup.
Let's see how Duquesne handles being in the favored role in this one!
Dayton has gone 8-2 against the spread their last 10 road affairs, and are on a 15-5 overall spread run their last 20 lined contests.
Roll with Dayton in this one.
3♦ DAYTON
Michael Cannon
Providence (+4) at SETON HALL
Take Providence as the road dog over Seton Hall.
Don’t let Seton Hall’s big win over Syracuse on Tuesday fool you. The Orange look like they have serious problems and after yesterday have lost four straight.
I’m more inclined to believe in Providence, which has knocked off Louisville and Villanova in successive games. There’s no question the Cardinals and Wildcats are for real, and the fact Providence beat them both indicates the Friars are ready to make a move themselves.
Seton Hall is on a 5-13 ATS slide in its last 18 home games and the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two.
Take the points with Providence.
3♦ PROVIDENCE
Scott Delaney
Washington (-4) at WASHINGTON STATE
Cheap price to pay with the 18th-ranked Huskies, whon come into this intra-state rivalry clash having won nine of 10 and with the third-best scoring offense in the nation with 87.1 points per game.
Though Wazzou has a trio of talented players averaging double digits, the key to its entire game is NBA-prospect Klay Thompson, who averages 22.2 points per game. Shut him down, and the rest of the team will be lost, in my opinion.
The Huskies are the class of the Pac 10, and come in with a well-rounded bunch that is balanced with talent at both ends of the court, and certainly can manhandle their hosts, who have been hit or miss with their defense over their last dozen games.
Though Washington State ranks 84th in the nation in allowing 64.4 points per game, it's allowed six of its last 12 foes to score 70 or more points - three of which have scored 80 or more.
That won't bode well against a Huskies team that ranks 11th in the country with 40.3 offensive rebounds per game and is shooting 48.8 percent from the floor.
The Huskies take high-percentage shots, they put themselves in position to score points and right now they're on a solid roll having won three straight with an average offensive production of 88.3 points per game in their victories over Cal, Arizona and ASU.
Lay the road chalk in this one.
2♦ WASHINGTON
Stephen Nover
Washington at WASHINGTON STATE (+4)
Despite a two-point loss to Arizona at home in their last game, the Washington State Cougars are tough to beat in Pullman. The Cougars have had extra rest since that loss eight days ago.
Washington State is 8-2 at home this season, 6-2 ATS versus lined opponents. The Cougars' only other home loss came to then fifth-ranked Kansas State, 63-58.
The Cougars beat Gonzaga by 22 points in Pullman and knocked off three Pac 10 foes at home all by at least 14 points.
Washington already has lost Pac-10 road games to UCLA, Southern Cal and California.
The Huskies not only have to content with high-scoring Klay Thompson, but DeAngelo Casto on the interior and Faisal Aden on the perimeter.
The Cougars have a lot of potential with these players, especially with the return of Reggie Moore to the starting lineup. This matchup presents good value to the home 'dog as the Cougars remain off the national radar screen.
2♦ WASHINGTON STATE
John Ryan
Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks
Prediction: New York Knicks
3* graded play on the NY Knicks as they take on the Detroit Pistons set to start at 7:30 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that the Knicks will win this game by six or more points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 34-11 for 76% winners since 2005. Play on home teams after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half facing an opponent after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. 38% of the games played covered the spread by seven or more points. Knicks last game was at Atlanta and the Hawks dominated them in the first half leading 60-43. However, the Knicks made some solid adjustments and got back into the game, but still lost 111-102. The fact that they had the confidence to fight back after being down by 17 points is credit to the type of character that is being built in New York City. Detroit is coming off an emotional loss to the injury depleted Heat losing 89-88 and will be flat for this game at madison Square Garden. Take the Knicks.