DAVE COKIN
CALIFORNIA AT COLORADO
PLAY: COLORADO -3.5
It’s the back end of the dreaded altitude trip for California. The Golden Bears will be trying to earn a split after losing at Utah the other night. But that doesn’t figure to be easy by any means, as Cal has to take on a Colorado entry bent on gaining revenge for the earlier loss at Berkeley.
The Bears aren’t playing their best ball of the season right now. Cal has lost four of its last six and they will still have to do without injured Tyrone Wallace. Minus Wallace, the only senior on the team who plays meaningful minutes, this is a team a bit short on the experience side. California is still fielding a solid lineup, but there’s no doubt the Wallace injury is a negative.
Colorado has won four of its last five, and the Buffaloes are coming off a superb shooting performance in an easy win against Stanford. Motivation should not be any kind of issue for the Buffs today. They got stomped in no uncertain terms in the first meeting with Cal, and payback should be on their minds here.
It looks like a favorable matchup for the home team on the comparatives. I like to match up the key categories, or at least the ones I consider the most important, in a head to head format, rather than just sizing up the numbers individually. In this particular game, Colorado holds the upper hand in six of the eight columns, incorporating both offensive and defensive numbers.
No Wallace, possible fatigue on the back end of the altitude trip and a serious revenge factor all point me in the direction of the Buffs today. I’ll spot the reasonable number with the Colorado side.
Ken Thomson
Evansville +4.5
Will take a shot at the Purple Aces who gave it a gallant effort at Koch Arena on January 6th in a hard fought 67-64 road loss. Evansville did an outstanding job containing Ron Baker as they held him to ( 3 of 10 ) from the floor whilr Van Vleet was just ( 6 of 17 ). On the down side for Evansville DJ Balentine was ( 0 of 4 ) behind the arc while Egidigus Mockevicius went just ( 5 of 10 ) from the foul line despite grabbing 16 rebounds. This is the Biggest MVC game for the Purple Aces in years and the Ford Center should be packed to the rafters for this one. If Evansville can get a quality game from Mislav Brzoja and Balentine can drain some three balls the crowd should keep the Aces in the game with a chance of getting the straight up win. If they allow Ron Baker & Van Vleet to create space and have open looks from trifecta range they will come up short again. This game tips at 4:00 PM ET and is must see TV.
Bruce Marshall
Colorado -3.5
Cal enters this game a bit shorthanded minus key G Tyrone Wallace. Also, the Bears face a revenge-minded Colorado side still in the Big Dance at-large mix and in revenge mode after a 14-point loss at Berkeley four weeks ago. Colorado got a boost from Gs Josh Fortune and George King in the midweek win over Stanford, each connecting on five triples!
Rob Vinciletti
Maryland vs. Ohio State
Play: Ohio State +5
The Buckeyes have blowout loss revenge on Maryland and are 11-3 at home this year including 4-0 in the BIG 10. They have won 34 of 39 at home with Conference revenge covering all 9 as a home dog if the loss was by more than 14 points and the opponent has won at least 66% of their games. Maryland is off a hard fought home win snapping the Iowa 9 game win streak. Look for Ohio. St to at the very least get the cover.
Marc Lawrence
California vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -3½
Edges - Buffaloes: 12-1 ATS as home favorites versus foe in the 2nd of back-to-back away games. Bears: 1-5 ATS away before facing arch-rival Stanford. With the Buffs 5-1 ATS as a host in this series, land playing with 14-point loss revenge suffered earlier this season at Cal, we recommend a 1* play on Colorado.
Scott Spreitzer
California vs. Colorado
Play: Colorado -3½
Payback time for the Buffaloes after losing 79-65 to Cal on New Year's Day. The Buffs were in a tough spot, having had their 11 game winning streak snapped in their previous contest, but that previous game was played a full eight days before the contest at Cal. The normally high-scoring Buffaloes looked rusty and they were ice cold, while the Golden Bears couldn't miss a shot, making 62% of their FGA in the win. But while Colorado is virtually unbeatable in Boulder (11-1 SU), the Bears have won just one of six in true road action. Colorado has won four of five SU/ATS and the offense is back in gear, connecting on 42% of their 3-point attempts at home. CU is also dominant on the glass at home and they should have little trouble forcing Cal into mistakes. The Bears enter with a 0.74 assist-turnover ratio on the road and the injury to top play-maker Tyrone Wallace (out 4-6 weeks) will make things even tougher on Cal. Colorado is on a 5-1 ATS run in home meetings with Cal, and they're 9-3 ATS in the last 12 in this series, overall.
Ari Atari
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Blazers -7
Portland is heating up in the West and will make light work of the defenseless Timberwolves to earn the win. Wolves had lost 10 of 12 and Blazers have won 7 of 9 and 5 of 6 at home while Wolves have lost 10 in a row away from home. Portland continues to stick Lillard's All-Star snub in the face of a league that doesn't give him or the way he's leading this team into post-season contention the respect they deserve at this point in the season.
Brandon Shively
Villanova vs. St. John's
Play: Villanova -20
I don't lay points like this often, so when I do I strongly feel that our team has numerous advantages on their side.
Villanova has had a whole week since losing to Providence to get ready for this game. That means extra time to practice, rest, and take out their frustrations on Saint John's. What a perfect spot for them here against a Saint John's team that has lost three of their last four games by 19 or more points. Those losses were against teams like Seton Hall, Butler, and Georgetown who are all down in class from Villanova. Saint John's if you have not watched them are terrible. They are only shooting 36.6% from the floor in conference play while giving up 80.8 ppg and getting outrebounded by 6 boards a game. That's all you need to know for this game. They can't shoot the ball nor can they take care of the ball. Look for an abundance of missed shots and turnovers. While this game is being played at Madison Square Garden, there won't be many Saint John's fans there. I expect more of a Villanova crowd if anything. This game is being played on an early Sunday afternoon, what's left of the Saint John's 'faithful' don't want to go see this blowout so home court is not an advantage.
Villanova beat Saint John's last year 105-68 and 90-72 and that was against a much better Saint John's team. Villanova has two losses this season. They have responded in their next two games with wins by 29 and 30 points (both covers). Dating back to last season, they are 5-0 ATS coming off a loss. They are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings played at Saint John's.
Jim Feist
Wolves vs. Blazers
Play: Over 207
Minnesota has plenty of offense, losing by 7 at Cleveland and by 3 to Oklahoma City. The Timberwolves are young and like to run, on a 5-0-1 run over the total, plus 9-1-1 over against a team with a losing straight up record. Portland is home but has been outscored on the season and not impressive on defense, No. 17 in points allowed, No. 23 in field goal shooting defense. And the over is 10-4 in the Trail Blazers last 14 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Big Al
Minnesota vs. Portland
Pick: Portland
The Blazers are on a 3-game win streak following double-digit triumphs over the Lakers (121-103), Kings (112-97) and Hornets (109-91). And .780 (or worse) NBA teams, off three SU/ATS wins by 10+ points, in which they scored 105+ in each game, are 152-88 ATS since 1990 if they are not favored by more than 11 points! Portland is 32-7 SU and 29-9-1 ATS its last 39 games vs. the T-Wolves, including 9-0-1 ATS off a pointspread win.
Power Sports
Boston vs. Orlando
Pick: Orlando
The Magic appear to have run out of tricks here in January as what was once the league's best bet (21-9 ATS through 30 games) has regressed badly, going just 2-11 at the betting window this month. That includes a 113-94 loss in Boston Friday night, but they get another crack here as it's a home & home w/ the C's. Take the pts.
The last time Orlando won a game that wasn't against the Brooklyn Nets was back on December 28th, here at home vs. New Orleans. They've lost their last eight, many of those coming in painful fashion (five by 7 pts or less). It should be noted that things were relatively close heading into the fourth quarter, Friday night in Boston. But a 22-4 Celtics run was "all she wrote" and 62 points from Boston's bench were far too many to overcome. Remember that in three of their previous four games, the Magic had a double digit lead only to lose. They did clobber the Celtics earlier this year (by 19) here at home and are 6-3 ATS this season taking points at the Amway Center.
Boston has been on an incredible run offensively, topping 100 pts in 11 straight games. Sooner or later though, you'd expect them to have an "off-night." This is a good team, one of the best in the East in fact by point differential, but one tidbit that I find interesting is that they actually perform much better (ATS) w/o rest than with it. With two big road games looming (at San Antonio and Oklahoma City), this is a lookahead.
Art Aronson
Charlotte Hornets at Los Angeles Lakers
Prediction: Los Angeles Lakers
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Classic "look-ahead/letdown" spot: This is the end of a four-game Western swing for the Hornets, who then return home to face Cleveland, Miami, Washington and Chicago. Suffice it to say, it's obviously not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to those much more important contests.
Revenge factor: LA has lost three of the last four in the series, including a 108-98 setback in Charlotte on December 28th.
ATS statistics: Note that the Hornets are just 1-5 ATS their last six vs. the Lakers and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 on the road, while LA is 6-3 SU in its last nine vs. Charlotte overall.
The bottom line: The situation and trends favor the LAKERS in this one.
The Gold Sheet
Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh
Play: Virginia Tech +9
Recent solid efforts at Georgia Tech and Notre Dame suggest Buzz Williams’ team can function away from Blacksburg, with experienced transfers F Zach LeDay (ex-South Florida; 16.1 ppg) and G Seth Allen (14.1 ppg; ex-Maryland) providing a lot more savvy than the first Buzz VPI edition last year. Pitt appearing vulnerable, with three SU losses its last five.
Jeff Benton
Your Sunday freebie is Iowa over Northwestern.
Iowa still stinging from Thursday's loss at Maryland will be itching to get back on their home floor at take out some of their frustrations on a Northwestern team that is in the midst of an ill-timed 4 game tailspin. The last 2 losses in Big Ten play have been ugly, as the Wildcats were bounced by Michigan State by 31 points, and by Indiana by 32 points!
Iowa is capable of laying another double-digit loss on Northwestern's resume, as the Hawkeyes are 10-0 at home this season, and have covered 5 of 7 on line.
The Hawkeyes are also 6-2 both straight up and against the spread the last 8 series meetings.
Northwestern gets behind here - and they will - and they do not have the firepower to play catch-up against the dead-eye Hawks.
Iowa rolls big!
2* IOWA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the LA Clippers at home over the Chicago Bulls. At the time of this writing, the Clippers are laying 5 points in Vegas and offshore.
How can you argue with four straight wins and 15 of 18 without Blake Griffin? Like him or hate him, Doc Rivers is a good coach and might be ready to finally have his team on a collision course with the Warriors in the Western Conference.
No disrespect to San Antonio or Oklahoma City, but the Clippers have the type of team that can compete with Golden State over seven games.
Today they have to contend with a Chicago team that I just can't figure out. They look like the best team in the Eastern Conference on some nights, and then they can't get out of their own way on others.
Tonight, traveling out west, I don't have the confidence that they can keep up with the Clippers for four quarters.
Take the Clippers minus the points as your free play of the day.
3* L.A. CLIPPERS