Brandon Lee
Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville +4
The Purple Aces are the only team in the Missouri Valley that have been able to keep it respectable against the Shockers, losing by just 3-points at Wichita State earlier this season. Needless to say, Evansville is going to be out for revenge in what is easily their biggest home game in quite some time. Homecourt advantage will be the difference in this one, as the Purple Aces come in a perfect 11-0 at home this season. I'm fully expecting an outright win here by Evansville, who is a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last 5 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games, but I'll gladly take the 4-points as insurance.
Will Rogers
Warriors vs. Knicks
Play: Warriors -10
The Golden State Warriors opened a three-game east coast road trip with a surprisingly close 108-105 win at Philadelphia last night. They're playing the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden here the next day, and I think this sets up a good opportunity to back the best team in the NBA.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. New York's Scoring Woes - The Knicks had averaged 96.8 points per game during a four-game slide prior to a 102-84 win against Phoenix Friday. That average was highly inflated by a 128-122 overtime loss against the Thunder though and four of their last five have gone under the total.
2. Focused Warriors - Only a last second 3-pointer from Harrison Barnes saved Golden State from overtime last night as they all but blew a 24-point lead in the second half. Expect Steve Kerr to have given the team an earful and the Warriors to play hard off the ball tonight.
3. X-Factor - The Warriors are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.
Jimmy Boyd
Colorado -3½
The Buffaloes are showing some great value here as a small home favorite against the Golden Bears. Colorado comes into this game off back-to-back wins and have won 4 of their last 5 overall. California on the other hand is fresh off a 64-73 loss at Utah and are just 2-4 in their last 6.
Homecourt advantage is huge for the Buffaloes, as they are 11-1 at home this season. That's an even bigger factor here when you consider Cal is just 1-7 in games away from home. This is also a huge revenge spot for Colorado, as got embarrassed on the road by the Golden Bears (65-79) earlier in conference play.
Cal is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 overall against a team with a winning record. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games against a team with a losing road record and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 after a game where they made 50% or more of their 3-point attempts (avg win in this spot by 12.6 ppg).
Chase Diamond
Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville +4
This big game has the 15-5 Wichita State at 18-4 Evansville. The purple Aces will be pumped up as they get the top team in their conference and a top 25 team in their home building. A chance to show they belong in big dance discussions. Evansville is 11-0 at home and Wichita State has won 10 straight. MV Conference underdogs are a 57% ATS since 1990 off a SU win if playing with revenge from a loss in the first meeting earlier in the the year. Money is 50/50 for this game but we are seeing the line move off of 4.5 at most spots. I love Evansville to win out rite but there's nothing wrong with getting points at home.
Mike Lundin
Hornets vs. Lakers
Play: Lakers +4
This looks like a good spot to back the LA Lakers as a home-dog to the Charlotte Hornets Sunday night. Cody Zeller (shoulder) and Al Jefferson (knee) are expected to sit out for the Hornets while Jeremy Lin (ankle) and Jeremy Lamb (toe) has missed the last four games and are considered questionable for this contest. Nicolas Batum is likely to sit out as well because of trouble with a sprained right toe that has kept him out from seven games already this month. The Lakers have no such injury concerns and Kobe Bryant is likely to be back in the starting lineup after being rested in Friday's 105-93 loss to the Clippers. Julius Randle had career-high 23 points and 14 rebounds in that contest and he's averaging 15.2 points and 11.2 boards in the past five games. The Hornets are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record and 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings with the Lakers.
Matt Fargo
Wichita State vs. Evansville
Play: Evansville +4
After opening the season ranked No. 10 in the AP Preseason Poll, Wichita St. stumbled out to a 2-4 start as the Shockers were dealing with a few key injuries. They have nearly run the table since then however, going 13-1 over their last 14 games with a four-point overtime loss at Seton Hall being the lone setback. The current 10-game winning streak includes nine straight conference wins and now they hit the road for their biggest MVC highway test thus far. Evansville was expected the give the Shockers the biggest challenge in the conference and it has done its part so far with a 7-2 conference record, good for a second place tie. The Shockers have won eight of their nine MVC games by at least 16 points with the one exception being a three-point home win against the Purple Aces. Now the second meeting takes place at Evansville where it is a perfect 11-0 on the season and going back, Evansville is 23-4 in its last 27 games, the best run since 1988-89 when it started 23-4. The Purple Aces have covered five straight against .600 or better teams.
Bruce Marshall
Northwestern at Iowa
Pick: Iowa
Both teams off of significant challenges on Thursday. But preference for Iowa's recuperative powers after overcoming so many tests already in Big Ten play (Michigan State and Purdue both victimized twice). Little chance the Hawkeyes lose focus vs. NU after a loss last season vs. the Cats (though Fran McCaffery did avenge that OT defeat at Evanston with a subsequent 17-point win). Return to active duty of 7-0 C Alex Olah has the Wildcats back at full strength. But their recent 3-game skid and inconsistencies beyond the arc (only 3 of 26 triples in recent loss to Penn State) suggest NU could have serious issues if forced into catch-up mode.
Harry Bondi
PORTLAND -7 over Minnesota
Not only have the T-Wolves lost three in a row and five of their last six, but this is a tough spot as they are playing their third game in five days and come in off a road game at Utah on Friday night. Trailblazers, on the other hand, have been home since Jan. 19 and will be the more rested team here. Portland has fared well when playing their third or more game in a row at home, going 4-0 ATS this year in that situation and 16-6 ATS the last three seasons. Tired legs doom Minnesota. Lay the wood at home with Portland.
Jesse Schule
Atlanta vs. Miami
Pick: Miami
The Heat are coming off three straight wins, and they return home Sunday to host the Atlanta Hawks. Miami is 15-9 at home, while the Hawks have a losing record on the road. The Hawks come in as losers of four of their last five, and they've failed to cover in four straight road games against teams with a winning record.
Miami's coach Erik Spoelstra has been impressed with his team's effort lately: "Probably the biggest area we've shown some improvement is (our) grit and some toughness to be able to win some tough games on the road," said Spoelstra. "It's never easy, and it's certainly not easy in the Eastern Conference. These are tough places to play ... you have to earn these games."
It's still unclear if Hassan Whiteside will return after missing the last four games with an oblique injury. Veteran Amare Stoudamire has done a decent job stepping up in his absence, pulling down 25 rebounds during the Heat's three game win streak.
The Hawks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Dr. Bob
Opinion – EVANSVILLE (+4) over Wichita State
Wichita State has been rolling in 11 games with all their players playing, as the Shockers have gone 11-1 straight up, including 10 wins in a row with a 9-1 ATS record. Their lone spread loss was a hard fought 3 point home win as a 10 point favorite against Evansville and today the Aces get a chance to even the score on their home court. That game was close despite Wichita State having advantages from the 3-point arc (39% to 38%) and from the free throw line (80% to 67%), so there was nothing fluky about the Aces keeping that game close. Evansville applies to a very good 221-109-10 ATS home underdog revenge situation today but I was hoping for a bigger line. My ratings favor Wichita State by 5 points and I’m not willing to give up the line value to make this game a Best Bet. However, the situation is certainly strong enough for me to lean with the Aces at +4 or more.
Wunderdog
Chicago @ Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -5.5
A long road trip for banged up Chicago, its second straight game out West of a seven-game trip. It's also their fourth road game in five contests. The Bulls are on a 3-8 ATS run and are 4-14 ATS following a spread cover. Chicago is putting the ball in Jimmy Butler's hands on offense, but the Clippers are a strong defensive team at #11 in the NBA in points allowed and #6 in field goal shooting defense. Butler was limited to 14 points on 4-of-14 shooting at home against the Clippers on December 10. The Clippers are home and hot, winning three straight, and 14 of 17 without Blake Griffin. The Clippers are on a 12-5 ATS run, including 9-2-1 ATS against the Eastern Conference. When these teams clash, the favorite is 7-2 ATS, and the Bulls are 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Dallas -11
Phoenix really plumbing some new depths of ineptitude, recently suffering a sweep at the hands of the lowly Sixers (who were favored in the game, another confirmation to how low the Suns have sunk) as part of an ongoing 2-17 SU nightmare in a 19-game stretch of fecklessness from Dec. 20-Jan. 28, the sort of slump not seen in the desert since Johnny Kerr's expansion Suns of 1968-69 (with Jim Fox at C) would endure. Dallas already owns a pair of DD wins and covers at the expense of Phoenix, both coming before Suns began their collapse in mid-December. Dirk Nowitzki now taking the occasional night off for the Mavs. But considering how he played against the weakling Lakers and decided to rest vs. the powerhouse Warriors last week, little chance he sits out vs. another beatable foe.
SPORTS WAGERS
COLORADO -3½ over California
The Golden Bears have two wins against ranked teams in three tries while the Buffalos are 0-2 against ranked teams. Cal's only loss to a ranked team was against Virginia, a game the Bears lost in double OT by one point. Combine that with Cal's 14-point victory over Colorado back in California on Jan 1 and the result is a deflated line here. California has one road victory in six tries, an OT win in Wyoming back on December 5. The Golden Bears have dropped four of their past six games overall and while they were all close, it reveals a team that just isn't getting it done in crunch time.
By contrast, the Buffs have won four of five. They are 11-1 at home with only loss coming against Utah by a bucket. We put no weight on Colorado's loss in California whatsoever. The Buffs pulled one of their patented first-half road no-shows in that Pac 12 opener at Cal, when, off an 8-day layoff, they went to the locker room trailing by 13 points. Their field goal percentage for the night was 31%. For the re-hook here, Colorado gets to face the Bears who are minus point guard Tyrone Wallace, their leading scorer. When favored by five points or fewer, the Buffs are 5-0 this year. The Bears have not adjusted well to life without Wallace, as Coach Cuonzo Martin gave Wallace too strong a hold on everything offensively that the team tried to do. They have been paying the price for that and they'll likely continue to pay the price here.
ARIZONA STATE +125 over Oregon
This situation aligns with one of the scenarios we love to target, that being a top-flight road favorite spotting points to a good home team that has proliferated impressive results in the confines of their own court. This equation adds up even more for us when the road favorite doesn't travel well. Oregon enters this one atop the ever rugged Pac-12 conference with a 17-4 overall record. However, Oregon has played just five road games all season and have lost three of them at Colorado, Boise State and Oregon State. In the game between the in-state arch-rivals, Oregon State went gate to wire on the Ducks and won by 13. Incidentally, Oregon State went into Arizona State recently and lost by 18. What sticks out most to us however, is the overreaction to the Ducks last game in which they were a 7-point dog in Arizona and won outright by eight. The Ducks now go from a 7-point dog to a 2-point choice, a swing of nine points from one road game to the next.
Arizona State enters at 12-9 but they have gone 9-3 this year on their own floor, which accounts for 75% of their victories. Arizona State has beat some talented teams at home this year. The list includes Texas A&M and Belmont. The Devils also forced Marquette into overtime earlier in the year in the Legends Classic Tournament Championship Game and upset N.C. State to qualify for that distinction. The Sun Devils also endured a difficult road schedule in conference play and yet in their three most recent losses to Stanford, California and Washington, ASU lost by just a combined 11 points on that rugged road slate. Had a few more buckets landed in the Sun Devils favor, that would have been three wins instead of losses and perhaps they would have entered this contest as a favorite but like always, this market sees wins and losses as the bottom line. Oregon's latest win in Arizona has the biggest influence on this number and so this now becomes the overreaction game. ASU outright is the call.
OC Dooley
Louisiana Tech -8.5
Even though Louisiana Tech is an outstanding 11-1 in HOME games this season they have only gone 3-3 against the number in the affairs that have been lined. In addition Louisiana Tech has successfully covered the spread just THREE times in the past 9 “lined” affairs dating back to the very beginning of December which to me makes them under-valued. Late this afternoon not only will Louisiana Tech be honoring their NCAA Tournament squad from 25 years ago, there will be more than FIFTY former players and coaches in attendance on what is being labeled as (Legends Day). Today marks the “fifth” time in the last 7 games that Texas-El Paso is playing on enemy hardwood and in ROAD games both short term (0-6 straight-up) and long term (5-13 ATS) they have been a bet-against