SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Denver (31-15, 21-23-2 ATS) at San Antonio (27-18, 23-21-1 ATS)
The Nuggets, coming off their first loss in nearly three weeks, complete a three-game road trip when they visit the AT&T Center for a clash with the Spurs.
Denver’s eight-game winning streak was snapped in Friday’s 101-84 loss at Oklahoma City, falling as a two-point road underdog. Forward Carmelo Anthony (ankle injury) missed his third straight game, and without their All-Star, the Nuggets were held to season-low in points while shooting 40.3 percent from the field. Nearly a quarter of the team’s points came from the free-throw line (20-for-22). Denver has dropped eight of its last 11 road games (2-8-1 ATS).
San Antonio has followed up a 1-5 SU and ATS slump – including a three-game SU and ATS home losing streak – with consecutive home wins over the Hawks (105-90 as a three-point chalk on Wednesday) and Grizzlies (104-97 as a five-point favorite on Friday). Prior to exploding in the last two games, the Spurs’ offense had reached triple digits in scoring just once in their previous six games.
Like Denver, San Antonio has an All-Star dealing with an ankle injury, as point guard Tony Parker missed Friday’s game. Parker has been ruled out today, while Anthony is doubtful.
The Nuggets scored a 106-99 upset win in San Antonio as a four-point underdog back on Dec. 9, the first meeting between these Western Conference powers this season. Denver has won two in a row, three of the last four and five of the last seven in this series, going 5-2 ATS. The road team and underdog have cashed in five straight meetings.
The SU winner has covered the spread in each of the Spurs’ last 10 games and 21 of their last 22, and the winner has cashed in eight of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry.
The Nuggets have cashed in four straight games when coming off a non-cover, but otherwise George Karl’s club is in pointspread slumps of 2-8-1 on the road, 3-10-2 against the Western Conference, 1-4 against the Southwest Division, 4-11 after one day off and 0-5-1 on Sunday. Likewise, San Antonio is in ATS ruts of 2-7 on Sunday and 2-8 against the Northwest Division.
The under is 20-7 in the last 27 Spurs-Nuggets matchups and 16-5-1 in the last 22 clashes at the AT&T Center. Additionally, Denver is riding “under” streaks of 5-1 on the road, 13-6 against the Western Conference, 4-1 versus Southwest Division squads and 24-8-1 against winning teams, while the under is 21-6 in San Antonio’s last 27 against winning teams and 8-1-1 in its last 10 on Sunday. On the flip side, the Spurs are on “over” runs of 3-1-1 overall (all at home) and 20-8-1 against Northwest Division foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER and UNDER
L.A. Lakers (36-11, 22-24-1 ATS) at Boston (29-15, 18-26 ATS)
The surging Lakers, in the midst of a season-long eight-game road trip, go after their fourth straight win and cover when they make their only visit of the season to TD Banknorth Garden to renew their rivalry with the Celtics.
Los Angeles dumped the 76ers 99-91 as a 6½-point favorite on Friday and is now 4-2 SU and ATS on the road trip, including 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three. The Lakers have also won seven of nine overall (6-2-1 ATS), but Phil Jackson’s troops are just 13-8 SU and 9-12 ATS on the highway this year.
Star forward Kevin Garnett returned to the Celtics’ lineup last week after missing 10 games with an injury and he immediately helped his team to a pair of home wins over Portland (98-95 in overtime) and the Clippers (95-89). However, Boston then went on the road and blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead at Orlando on Thursday (losing 96-94 as a 3½-point underdog) followed by Friday’s 100-91 loss in Atlanta as a four-point pup. The Celtics have dropped 10 of their last 16 games, going 5-11 ATS, and they’ve split their last six home games, failing to cover in the last five.
The SU winner is 14-0-1 ATS in the Lakers’ last 15 games, including 6-0 ATS in the last six, and the winner has cashed in each of L.A.’s last 14 road contests.
After losing the 2008 NBA Finals to the Celtics, the Lakers got a little revenge last year as they swept the season series, winning 92-83 as a two-point home favorite and 110-109 in overtime as a seven-point road underdog. Prior to those two wins and covers, Boston had been on a 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS roll in this rivalry, including 4-0 SU and ATS at home. Finally, the underdog has gotten the money in five of the last seven series clashes.
Los Angeles is on ATS runs of 4-1 overall (all on the road and all against the Eastern Conference), 4-1 versus Atlantic Division foes and 6-1 on Sunday, but it is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games against winning teams.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in Boston’s last seven games, with the Celtics going 0-5 ATS as a favorite during this stretch. Additionally, Doc Rivers’ squad is in pointspread ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-5 at home, 0-6 versus Western Conference foes, 0-8 against the Pacific Division, 2-6 when playing after one day of rest and 1-4 against winning teams.
The Lakers had a four-game “over” streak snapped at Philadelphia on Friday, and the under is 5-2-1 in their last seven against Atlantic Division teams and 20-6-2 in their last 28 on Sunday. Similarly, Boston is on “under” runs of 9-4 on Sunday and 4-1 against the Pacific Division.
Finally, the over is 3-0 in the last three Lakers-Celtics battles in Boston.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. LAKERS
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Florida (15-5, 8-7 ATS) at (14) Tennessee (15-4, 8-7-1 ATS)
Having suffered back-to-back losses, the Volunteers will try to get back on track when they welcome suddenly surging Florida to Thompson-Boling Arena for an SEC East clash.
The Gators dropped their first two SEC games to Vanderbilt (95-87 on the road) and Kentucky (89-77 at home), but they’ve since ripped off four straight wins, all in league play, going 3-1 ATS. On Wednesday, Florida pummeled Georgia 87-71 as a nine-point home favorite, and it has now scored more than 70 points in five of six SEC contests.
Tennessee took a seven-game winning streak into last Saturday’s league game at Georgia and it got crushed 78-63 as a 6½-point road favorite. Then the Vols returned home Wednesday to face No. 21 Vanderbilt and blew a four-point halftime lead, losing 85-76, again laying 6½ points. Tennessee has followed up a 4-0 ATS run by failing to cash in three of its last four (all in conference).
The Vols are on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, taking last year’s two meetings by scores of 79-63 (as a four-point home chalk) and 79-75 (as a 4½-point road underdog). Tennessee is 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four meetings in Knoxville, with the last three being double-digit routs. Finally, the Vols are 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 against Florida and 13-3 ATS in the last 16.
The Gators have cashed in seven of 10 after a SU victory and four of five on the road, while Tennessee is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against winning teams, but 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU defeat and 1-3-1 ATS in its last five after a non-cover.
Both teams are on a slew of low-scoring streaks. For the Gators, the under is on runs of 13-4 overall, 4-1 on the road, 24-9-1 after a SU win, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 on Sunday, while Tennessee carries “under” trends of 10-4 overall, 6-2 at home, 11-5 in SEC play and 5-0 on Sunday. Also, both of last year’s Vols-Gators battles stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE and UNDER
Minnesota (13-7, 9-10 ATS) at (20) Ohio State (15-6, 10-11 ATS)
Minnesota will try to snap a three-game road losing streak and hand the Buckeyes their first home defeat of the season when these Big Ten rivals complete their season series at Value City Arena.
The Golden Gophers ended a three-game losing streak with Tuesday’s 65-61 victory over Northwestern, but they never threatened to cover as a 12½-point home favorite, their fourth straight ATS setback. Minnesota started the conference season with consecutive wins over Penn State (home) and Iowa (road), but Tubby Smith’s squad is just 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS since then (0-3 SU and ATS on the road). The only spread-cover in this stretch came in a 73-62 win over Ohio State as a four-point favorite on Jan. 9.
Ohio State won its first Big Ten road game of the season Wednesday, rallying past Iowa 65-57 but coming up short as a 10½-point chalk. The Buckeyes are 5-2 in their last seven games (5-1 in conference), but they’ve followed up a 4-1 ATS run by failing to cash in their last two. Thad Matta’s team is 12-0 at Value City Arena (8-4 ATS), averaging 81.6 points per game on 53.1 percent shooting while holding visitors to 54.2 ppg (37.2 percent).
With the Gophers’ nine-point win over Ohio State earlier this month, the home team improved to 5-0 SU and ATS in the last five meetings and 7-1 SU (6-2 ATS) in the last eight. The Buckeyes have defeated Minnesota three straight times in Columbus (3-0 ATS). Finally in this rivalry, the favorite has covered in seven straight meetings.
In addition to failing to cash in their last four overall, Golden Gophers sport negative ATS trends of 5-16-1 on the road, 7-21 on Sunday and 1-5 against winning teams. Likewise, Ohio State is in pointspread slumps of 4-9 overall, 2-8 on Sunday, 2-6 after a SU victory and 2-6 after a non-cover.
Minnesota has topped the total in 10 of its last 14 games on Sunday, but is otherwise on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall (all in Big Ten action) and 4-0 against winning teams. Ohio State is on “under” runs of 5-1 at home, 10-4 in league play, 17-6 on Sunday, 9-2 after a non-cover and 4-0 versus opponents with a winning record.
Finally, the last four meetings in this series have stayed low, as have four of the last five clashes at Value City Arena.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OHIO STATE and UNDER
Maryland (14-5, 9-6 ATS) at Clemson (15-6, 9-9 ATS)
Two ACC rivals heading in opposite directions meet up at Littlejohn Coliseum in South Carolina, as struggling Clemson attempts to snap its three-game losing skid and end the Terrapins’ four-game winning streak.
Maryland has destroyed its last four opponents, knocking off ACC foes Boston College (73-57 as a two-point road underdog), North Carolina State (88-64 as a 9½-point home chalk) and Miami, Fla. (81-59 as an 8½-point home favorite) while also pounding Longwood (106-55 in a non-lined game). The Terps are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in ACC play, with the only blemish being a two-point overtime loss at Wake Forest as a 3½-point underdog. After Tuesday’s rout of Miami, Maryland is now on a 6-0 ATS run.
The Tigers have followed up a three-game winning streak with three straight losses (all six games in conference). They sandwiched two close road losses – at Georgia Tech (66-64 as a one-point underdog) and at Boston College (75-69 as a two point favorite) – around last Saturday’s 60-47 home loss to Duke as a two-point pup. Clemson won 12 of 14 non-conference games to start the season but is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS within the ACC.
Clemson has won two in a row (SU and ATS) and six of the last eight (SU and ATS) against Maryland, including last year’s 93-64 thumping as a 10½-point home favorite. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 11 clashes.
Other than their pointspread struggles against Clemson, the Terps are on a plethora of positive ATS runs, including 6-0 overall, 8-0 in ACC play dating to last season, 4-0 on the road, 5-2 on Sunday and 5-0 versus winning teams. Meanwhile, the Tigers had cashed in six straight home games prior to Saturday’s blowout loss to Duke, and they’re in ATS funks of 0-4 overall (all in conference, all against winning teams) and 2-8 after a non-cover.
These teams have topped the total in seven of their last eight meetings overall, including the last four in a row at Littlejohn Coliseum. Also, Maryland carries “over” trends of 9-3 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 5-1 against teams with a winning record, while the Tigers have topped the total seven of their last eight versus opponents with a winning record. On the flip side, Clemson is on “under” runs of 9-3 overall, 19-7-2 at home, 4-0 on Sunday and 5-2 against ACC foes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Marc Lawrence
Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City
Prediction: Golden State Warriors
Kevin Durant and the Thunder have certainly made some noise this season but most of their damage has been done away from home as evidenced by their 16-7 ATS road record. They are a respectable 12-9 SU at the Ford Center this year but they haven’t been able to string together many ATS home wins, logging a 3-8 ATS mark off a SU win in front of the home faithful. It won’t get any easier tonight for 1st-year HC Scott Brooks as the Warriors come to town. Don Nelson’s bunch have had the upper hand in this series winning 11 of 18 SU while grabbing the cash in 12 of those meetings, including 7-2 ATS on the road and a near spotless 6-1 ATS when taking points. That lone loss as a dog was earlier this season when they fell 104-88 in this building. Oklahoma City’s 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS mark on Sundays tells us that neither lightning nor ‘Thunder’ will strike twice in a row! Grab the Golden pups.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Pittsburgh at South Florida
For the 1st time ever, USF has won back to back Big East games, defeating Providence and Seton Hall by a combined six points. But the Bulls have been a lousy home dog for some time, going 19-37 ATS in that role since 1997, including 5-16 when taking three points or less. They are still playing without second leading scorer Gilchrist. Pitt has been the surprise of the Big East this season and has beaten USF three straight times by double digits.
Play on: Pittsburgh
JIM FEIST
INDIANA STATE / EVANSVILLE
TAKE: INDIANA STATE
Indiana State snapped a four game losing streak on Thursday with a win at home over Southern Illinois, 68-65. HC Kevin McKenna is in his third year coaching the Sycamores. McKenna has done some very good things since coming over from Creighton. He led ISU to a 12-2 home record in his first season, and last year closed out the year with six wins in the club's final seven games. Still, the Sycmores 12-9 record is a far cry from any NCAA berth, something McKenna did four times at Creighton. ISU is first in the Missouri Valley conference in free throw percentage (76.5%). The Sycamores feature a balanced attack, having had at least three players reach double digit scoring in 12 games. The Sycamores are 9-3 when they accomplish this feat this season. More good news for ISU was the return of leading rebounder and second leading scorer, Dwayne Lathan, who returned to the lineup after missing five games with a leg injury. Meanwhile, things just continue badly for the Purple Aces of Evansville. EU ran it's losing streak to 11 consecutive games with a setback at Missouri State on Wednesday, 76-66. The Purple Aces are 4-7 ATS during their 11 game losing streak. Freshman Colt Ryan is second in the conference in scoring (14.9 ppg) but has been cold of late. Ryan has just 7, 12 and 11 points respectively in his last three games. Moreover, he's 10-for-33 from the field and 4-for-22 from the 3-point stripe during his slide. We have to lay jut 1 1/2 or 2 points on the road here which translates to little more than a straight-up win. And considering the Purple Aces haven't won since December 19th, we'll take the road club here with the return of one of their best players.
EZWINNERS
Phoenix Suns +3.5
Phoenix has won three straight meetings between these two teams and Houston has been a "home away from home" for the Suns as Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread in their last 17 visits to the Space City. The Rockets have played better than anyone expected early in the season, but they have been slumping as they head into the All-Star break. The Rockets are 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games as a home favorite. The undersized Rockets frontline will have no answer for Amare Stoudemire. Take the points.
James Patrick Sports
Knicks vs. Timberwolves
The New York Knicks don't cash many winning tickets when they aren't getting more than (6+) points on the road as they are (2-6) ATS on the road in this spot. Our Sunday NBA selection is Minnesota Timberwolves.
Triple Threat Sports
Virginia at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina Tar Heels
Virginia drained after that tough OT loss to Va Tech, and Heels are starting to play better, especially in Chapel Hill. Williams knows a big win would build some confidence, and that is what we look for here from UNC, so lay the points.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers +2 at BOSTON
I continue to light it up with my FREE selections, improving to 64-26, including 41-12 with the last 53 plays. Today I have an NBA winner for you as I grab the points with the Lakers in Boston against the Celtics.
It’s Game 7 for the Lakers on this eight-game road trip and they look like they are getting better defensively. They’ve won three in a row (SU and ATS) and now they come in to face a struggling Celtics’ squad they won’t have any problem getting motivated for.
Los Angeles is 4-2 (SU and ATS) on this roadie that wraps up in Memphis on Monday. They beat the Sixers 99-91 on Friday as a 6 ½-point road favorite, on the heels of blowout wins at Washington and Indiana. Kobe Bryant had an average game for him against the Sixers with 24 points, but Pau Gasol had 19 points and 10 rebounds while Ron Artest added 18 points.
The Celtics got 35 points from Paul Pierce on Friday as they lost in Atlanta 100-91 as four-point underdogs. They have lost five of seven overall (1-6 ATS), including three of five at home. This team is still trying to gradually work Kevin Garnett into the lineup and he had 33 minutes on Friday.
The Lakers took both matchups last season, including a thrilling 110-109 win in Boston in overtime, cashing as a seven-point underdog. Los Angeles is 6-1 ATS on Sundays and 3-1-1 after a spread-cover. The Celtics are on ATS slides of 0-6 against Western Conference teams, 2-6 after a day off, 0-8 against Pacific Division teams and 1-4 against teams with a winning record.
Look for big games from the interior game of the Lakers in Gasol and Andrew Bynum. That’s too much for a Celtics’ squad that isn’t quite ready to turn Garnett loose for the whole game.
Play the Lakers.
5♦ L.A. LAKERS
Dominic Fazzini
L.A. Lakers at BOSTON -2
I can't say I say Andre Miller scoring 52 points Saturday. If I had, I surely wouldn't have taken the Mavericks to cover against Portland with my complimentary selection. That loss dropped my record to 63-46-3 over the past 112 days, but I've got an NBA winner today that will pick me back up.
Kobe Bryant is banged up, and the Lakers have been on the road for more than a week as they near the end of a season-long eight-game road trip.
Throw in a Celtics team that is at home, hungry for a win and facing their longtime rivals, and that doesn't spell success for Los Angeles.
Boston has won just two of its last seven games, but the Lakers can expect to get the team's best effort today, especially with Kevin Garnett easing his way back into the lineup after missing 10 games with a hyperextended knee. His energy and defensive presence are going to go a long way today against L.A.
And with Bryant suffering from a sore knee and tweaked ankle, I don't expect the Lakers' offense to be crisp today.
The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the teams, including 4-1 in the last five games in Boston. With this game meaning much more to the Celtics than it does to the road-weary Lakers, I really like Boston in this one.
3♦ BOSTON
Stephen Nover
New York at MINNESOTA
Kentucky lost its focus in losing to the Gamecocks at South Carolina on Tuesday. That's understandable since the Wildcats had just been named No. 1 for the first time in seven years and had received a phone call from President Obama thanking them for raising $1.3 million for earthquake-ravaged Haiti.
But now things have settled down in Lexington where the Wildcats are fully focused for this matchup.
Kentucky coach John Calipari's last four Memphis teams were 10-0 in games following a regular-season defeat, winning by an average of 23.4 points.
Vanderbilt is playing well, but the Commodores are off a highly-satisfying 85-76 win at 14th-ranked Tennessee on Wednesday.
The Commodores have failed to cover in six of their last eight visits to Kentucky.
The total is fairly high in this matchup, but then again defense is not a word associated with either New York nor Minnesota.
The Timberwolves rank 28th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage. The Knicks rank 26th in defensive field goal percentage.
Both teams are giving up an average of 112 points during their past five games.
The Timberwolves played the Knicks at Madison Square Garden this past Tuesday and 237 points were scored in a 132-105 Knicks' blowout victory.
2♦ KNICKS/TIMBERWOLVES OVER
Drew Gordon
Golden State at OKLAHOMA CITY -9
51-29-3 roll L82 Free Plays (19-6 L25), incl. a 2-0 Sweep Saturday: Illinois St. & Trail Blazers! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Warriors-Thunder match up.
I know its tempting to grab the points with this Warriors team, as their high-octane offense makes it easy (for average bettors) to side with them. But you're not going to beat Vegas making bets that are "easy." In fact, most of the time its the more difficult plays that deliver - much like tonight, laying 9-points. The difference here is defense, one team is playing with lockdown effort, while the other isn't playing any defense at all!
Oklahoma City has been a force on the defensive end of late, allowing 91 ppg over their L5 games! The best example of their effort came in their last game, when they limited a VERY good Denver offense to 84 points in a blowout win Friday! Golden State runs into trouble when facing teams that refuse to run with them (like Charlotte in their last game), and I expect the Thunder will dig in their heels today at home.
Finally, for all those people unwilling to lay the points... What happened the last time these two teams met? The Thunder hosted the Warriors as 7-point favorites back in December, and easily won and covered 104-88! More of the same Sunday night, as the Thunder build off their impressive win over Denver with another strong home effort in this one. Thunder roll!
Take Oklahoma City over Golden State in this NBA match up.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Michael Cannon
Pitt -3' at SOUTH FLORIDA
I am now 72-57-3 with my last 132 free plays.
Take Pitt as the road chalk over South Florida.
I realize the Bulls are playing good basketball right now. They are coming off consecutive Big East wins for the first time since joining the conference in 2005-06. But while beating Seton Hall and Providence is nice, this is a step up in class for the Bulls.
Pitt righted the ship with Thursday’s 10-point win over St. John’s. The Panthers had suffered back-to-back losses to Georgetown and Seton Hall. I watched the St. John’s game and after a battle for the better part of the game, Pitt got back to playing suffocating defense and pulled away late.
That’s what I see happening today.
The Panthers will try to slow South Florida’s Dominique Jones with Jermaine Dixon. If Dixon isn’t up to the task, look for Pitt coach Jamie Dixon to use the ultra-athletic Gilbert Brown.
One thing’s for sure; if Jones isn’t on his game the Bulls don’t stand a chance.
Pitt has always been known for its stellar defensive play and you’re going to see that in action today.
The Panthers are riding ATS streaks of 8-1-1 in their last 10 overall and 6-1-1 in their last eight versus the Big East. Pitt has also covered its last four lined road games.
South Florida hasn’t fared well on Sundays, going 2-8 ATS in its last 10 in that role.
Take Pitt minus the points as they grab the road win and cover.
2♦ PITT
Tony George
New York Knicks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: T-Wolves -1.5
I have cashed my last 2 NBA Free Plays here, and Portland last night was a great play for free. Today I like Minnesota at home. Neitrher team plays defense, both allowing over 110 ppg their last 5 games, but bad road teams who play no defense are always a go against in the NBA.
Minny laying a short number here and have better perimeter shooting. Al Harrington being out again for NY not helping their cause as he is one of their best players. ALSO a BACK TO BACK ROAD GAME scenario here off a Saturday loss to Washington for the Knicks. GREAT Spot for Minny to steal a win off a big home winner on Friday against the Clippers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Houston Rockets -3
The Suns have lost their last 5 road games, and I expect them to drop their 6th straight here against a Rockets team hungry to avenge 2 prior losses to Phoenix this season. Defensively, the Suns are awful, allowing 110.4 ppg on the road on 47% shooting. What's even worse is that the Suns aren't making up for their defensive deficiencies by coming up with a lot or turnovers. They are only getting 6 steals per game and Houston is on a 25-11 ATS run versus teams who average 7 or less steals per game in 2nd half of the season, defeating these teams by 9.3 points on average. Houston is also on a 38-18 ATS run versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing 14 or fewer turnovers per game in the 2nd half of the season, defeating these teams by an average of 8.6 points. We'll lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Magic/Pistons UNDER 187
First off, you have to like the fact that Plays Under on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Detroit in this case) in a game involving two average defensive teams (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, and after a combined score of 165 points or less, are 70-36 since 1996. Plus, Orlando is 17-8 Under in road games this season. The Under is 6-1 in the Pistons' last 7 overall, 5-2 in the last 7 meetings, and 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Detroit. We'll bet the Under for 1 unit.