SPORTS WAGERS
SLOVENIA +1.32 OVER Algeria
This match has great value, obviously favoring the Slovenians. Algeria will not win a single match in this group and it will more than evident after their opening match against this very tough Slovenian side. Slovenia, a first timer in the World Cup turned heads on route to the final stages as they play a very good defensive game while scoring opportune goals time and time again. Slovenia will be battling for second spot in the group with the U.S.A. so this game is obviously huge for them. I really see no shot of an upset here, as the Slovenians have been a pleasant surprise getting to this point by playing very good football and they just may surprise people with an excellent showing. Algeria, happy to be in the World Cup, didn't have to go through the rigors of the European Qualification stage and as a result easily made this World Cup, thus will be absolutely no match for Slovenia here. Play: Slovenia +1.32 (Risking 2 units)
Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons
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L.A. Lakers @ Boston
PICK: L.A. Lakers +3
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This has been a back and forth series; the "flip flop theory" is in full effect.
LA won straight up and covered in Game 1, Boston returned the favour in Game 2, LA won and covered in Game 3, and Boston held court in Game 4.
For a number of different reasons, I believe that this trend is going to continue and recommend a play on the LAKERS with the points in Game 5.
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First off let me tell you a bit about my current NBA Playoffs run on paid packages;
So far in the Finals I'm a perfect 4-0 (100%) with my *10* plays. I'm on a long-term 9-1 (90%) *10* playoff run and you are not going to want to miss out on my Game 5 *10* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH which is now posted and ready to roll.
But back to the Lakers in Game 5; this is a spot that LA has done very well in so far in the 2010 post season; it's 2-1 ATS when tied in a playoff series; but it's interesting to note that it's an awesome 7-2 ATS in the same position over the last two years.
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In exact contrast to those stellar numbers, Boston is just 1-2 ATS in the 2010 post season when tied in a playoff series and just 7-8 ATS over the past two seasons.
Although they won and covered the last time out, keep in mind that the Celtics are also a brutal 31-41 ATS this year when playing the roll of favorite.
A big reason behind the Celtics Game 4 victory was the difference on the offensive boards; Boston had 16 to LA's 8.
That prompted Lakers coach Phil Jackson to say;
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"I was disappointed our guys can't secure the rebounds, didn't capture the rebounds," Jackson said. "We talked about that tonight. We shot better than they did, but that didn't make the difference in the game. The difference in the game was chances. They had more chances than we did."
LA collapsed in the fourth quarter allowing the Celtics to break out with 36 points; suffice to say I expect the Lakers, which are in fact the bigger team, to come out with a much more all around concerted effort on both ends of the court.
The "flip flop" theory continues to ring true in the Finals here; great value on the visitors; grab up those points!
Jim Feist
White Sox at Cubs
Play: White Sox
The White Sox are looking not only for bragging rights in the Windy City, but also the inaugural BP Crosstown Cup. The White Sox have not only beaten the Cubs twice in this series but are riding a five game winning streak. The Sox are also looking for their first series sweep at Wrigley in 11 seasons. The South-Siders will turn to Gavin Floyd to complete the sweep. Floyd is only 2-6 with a 6.18 ERA but is coming off one of his best starts of the season. Floyd allowed just one earned run over six innings versus Detroit back on June 8. Ted Lilly will look to stop the bleeding for the Northsiders. Lilly has a fine 3.28 ERA, but has just a 1-5 record on the season. Lilly is also coming off a fine performance last time out where he allowed just one earned run over eight innings against the Brewers. The Cubs seem to be in a tailspin as they have lost nine of the last 12 games and now are eight games below .500. I'm taking the Sox here. We get them as a nice dog and there's always value in teams running on streaks like the White Sox are. Take the Sox to sweep the Cubs.
Marc Lawrence
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
Prediction: Seattle Mariners
When Seattle sends Felix Hernandez to the hill against the Padres the in the conclusion of this three game series between the Mariners and Padres in San Diego this afternoon they will do so knowing the 'King' is 4-2 in his career team starts in this series, including 2-0 in this park. With the M's 10-2 in their last 12 games in San Diego, look for Hernandez to improve to 10-3 in his career road starts during June here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.
Craig Trapp
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Play: New York Yankees -1.5
Go ahead and lay the -2 and get this at even money as this game will not be close. Hughes goes for the NYY and he looks to add to his 8-1 start to the season. As a bonus for Hughes he will get a ton of run support as Houston starts Moeller. Moeller is about as good as a batting practice pitcher. Moehler, 0-1 with an 8.36 ERA in three starts, is looking for his first victory since Aug. 22, a 10-start span. If thats not enough as NYY lineup has been scoring in bunches but today they get back best hitting catcher in the league Posoda. Lay three, four, five runs, doesn't matter HOU will not be close.
David Chan
Kansas City Royals @ Cincinnati Reds
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Take the Royals and Zack Greinke over the Reds and Sam LeCure.
It would be hard to imagine seeing Greinke near even money in this spot before the season began. Well, the Royals are 2-11 in his starts and after hanging on to hopes of better times for six or eight weeks, the market has capitulated and decided that Greinke is poison. This is now the time to bet him.
Reds starter San LeCure has a nifty ERA of 3.12 in three big league starts, but he’s been exceptionally lucky: his WHIP is a gaudy 1.67, his K/BB ratio is a useless 12/12, and the Reds have lost two of those starts anyway.
The Royals hit a little bit in the Minnesota series, and got six runs Friday night in Cincinnati. Greinke has suffered from a lack of run support, but it’s coming around, and the pitching matchup is too good to pass up.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Boston over Philadelphia
The Phillies are 31-29 and set-up in third place starting the schedule on Sunday. They have won just three times in their last twelve battles, while showing in a negative 0-6 run in Boston. With the Phillies 0-6 in road settings and the BoSox 9-0 with Wakefield against the National League East, the play is Boston.
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Boston
The Lakers look to bounce back from their Game 4 loss and build on their 5-2 ATS record in their last 7 playoff games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. LA is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3)
Game 707-708: LA Lakers at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 127.573; Boston 127.017
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 3; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+3); Over
MLB
Kansas City at Cincinnati
The Reds look to close out the series and take advantage of a Kansas City team that is 2-12 in Zack Greinke's last 14 starts. Cincinnati is the pick (-115) according to Dunkel, which has the Reds favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115)
Game 951-952: St. Louis at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Carpenter) 16.112; Arizona (Jackson) 15.236
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 9
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.810; Cleveland (Huff) 15.941
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-220); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+180); Under
Game 955-956: Houston at NY Yankees (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Moehler) 14.497; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.670
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-320); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-320); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Karstens) 13.035; Detroit (Galarraga) 14.168
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Over
Game 959-960: Kansas City at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Greinke) 15.733; Cincinnati (LeCure) 15.821
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-115); Under
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 13.353; Boston (Wakefield) 16.134
Dunkel Line: Boston by 3; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Over
Game 963-964: NY Mets at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Pelfrey) 14.853; Baltimore (Millwood) 14.366
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-150); Over
Game 965-966: Florida at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Volstad) 16.155; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 15.433
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-205); 9
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+175); Under
Game 967-968: Atlanta at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 16.195; Minnesota (Slowey) 16.957
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-145); Under
Game 969-970: Texas at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Lewis) 14.782; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 16.391
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-145); Under
Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 14.360; Cubs (Lilly) 15.493
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-160); No Run Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-160); N/A
Game 973-974: Toronto at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Litsch) 15.819; Colorado (Francis) 15.230
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Colorado (-175); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+155); Over
Game 975-976: Oakland at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Mazzaro) 16.704; San Francisco (Cain) 15.826
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+170); Under
Game 977-978: Seattle at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 14.611; San Diego (Richard) 15.428
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Diego (-120); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-120); Over
Game 979-980: LA Angels at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Weaver) 16.467; LA Dodgers (Montaserios) 16.853
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-125); Under
WNBA
Minnesota at Los Angeles
The Sparks look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games versus teams with a losing SU record. Los Angeles is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Sparks favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5)
Game 651-652: San Antonio at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 109.475; Atlanta 114.424
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5; 159
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 162 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+6 1/2); Under
Game 653-654: Connecticut at Indiana (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 113.285; Indiana 113.171
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 157
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 6; 150
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+6); Over
Game 655-656: Minnesota at Los Angeles (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 104.709; Los Angeles 112.660
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 8; 163
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles by 5; 161 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-5); Over
Chuck O'Brien
Sunday’s complimentary selection comes from San Diego, as I’ll take the Padres as a home chalk against Seattle.
How do you pass up the Padres – who have been the most profitable team in baseball this year – when they’re laying this small of a price at home? Yeah, I know the Mariners are sending ace Felix Hernandez to the mound, but King Felix hasn’t exactly been Mr. Automatic this season. He’s 3-5 with a 3.77 ERA, and after winning Hernandez’s first four starts, the Mariners have gone 1-8 in his last nine trips to the mound.
That includes five straight road losses, the most recent coming on Tuesday in Texas, where Hernandez surrendered seven runs on eight hits and three walks in six innings of a 7-1 loss to the Rangers. Also, Seattle’s 1-8 slump behind Hernandez includes an 8-1 home loss to the Padres on May 23 (Hernandez gave up three runs – two earned – in seven innings in that one).
In fact, you could easily argue that Hernandez isn’t even the best pitching going in this one. Despite a mediocre 4-3 record, San Diego lefty Clayton Richard (2.72 ERA) has been tremendous this year, allowing three earned runs or fewer in all but one of his 12 starts, including allowing exactly one run in four of his last five outings. That includes a 2-1 win in Seattle on May 22 (one run in seven innings), meaning in two career starts versus the Mariners – one in 2008 with the White Sox – Richard has surrendered just one run in 13 innings.
The Padres, who have won four straight against the Mariners (including the first two games of this series), are 20-12 at Petco Park this season (6-1 in the last seven) and 10-4 in Richard’s last 14 home starts. Meanwhile the Mariners are 8-22 on the highway this year, 16-37 on the road going back to last summer and they’ve lost five straight games to left-handed starters.
4♦ SAN DIEGO
Bobby Maxwell
My FREE play run sits at 108-91-3 with a comp winner coming your way today on the Angels as they complete the seep of the rival Dodgers.
The Angels have taken the first two games of this series Friday and Saturday and they’ll finish off the sweep today with Jered Weaver (5-3, 2.98 ERA) on the hill at Dodger Stadium against the Dodgers’ Carlos Monasterios (3-0, 2.27).
Weaver is 1-1 in his last three outings, but his ERA is at 2.70 in those three games, including a two-game stretch where he didn’t give up an earned run for 14 straight innings against the Mariners and Royals. When he takes the hill against the Dodgers, it’ll be his seventh career start against the rivals, and he’s led the Angels to wins in four of the previous six. In Dodger Stadium last season he allowed just one run in five innings of a 3-1 Angels’ win.
In three career starts in Dodger Stadium, Weaver has allowed one run on 12 hits in 16.1 innings of work. The Angels are on streaks of 9-2 on the road, 8-0 as road ‘dogs, 26-8 against N.L. West teams, 21-7 in interleague road games and 37-16 on Sunday.
Monasterios is making just his fifth career start and the Dodgers are perfect in the previous four, including Monday’s 12-4 win over the Cardinals when he gave up three runs in six innings. The Dodgers are just 2-5 in interleague play and 2-5 in interleague home games.
The Angels have won six of the last seven at Dodger Stadium and they are 16-7 in the last 23 meetings between these cross-town rivals. I’m going with Weaver and the Angels in this one.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS
Derek Mancini
Nice winner with the Padres (+115) over the Mariners 7-1 for Saturday complimentary winner. For Sunday's play let's take a look at the home chalk in the Freeway Series in a game that has a fishy line that stood out the minute I looked at it.
Here we have a rookie backed by a now struggling Dodger offense, facing a grizzled veteran, with an outstanding track record at Dodger Stadium (0.55 ERA in 3 outings). So what gives? Why are the Dodgers, losers of two in a row, and flailing at the plate, the favorites here?
The answer becomes clear with the outstanding pitching of Carlos Monasterios (3-0, 2.27 ERA). The rookie was supposed to be a fill-in for the injured Vincente Padilla, but in a little over two weeks has made a real name for himself, going 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA. He's pitching effeciently, and done it against three solid offenses (at Colorado, vs Arizona, vs St. Louis). The Angels will have their work cut out for them today.
For as good as Weaver has pitched this season, he's been vulnerable on the road, going 3-2 with a 4.01 ERA; that's more than two runs higher than his ERA at home (1.85).
Despite their recent struggles, the Dodgers have been great at home against righties (19-8), batting .286 against them at Chavez Ravine this season.
You may be tempted to grab the plus money with Weaver, but buyer beware, the Dodgers will not disappoint today. Lay it with the Dodgers (Monasterios) over the Angels (Weaver) Sunday.
3♦ LA DODGERS
BRETT ATKINS
Today's free winner comes to you from Los Angeles as I go with the Angels to make it a three-game sweep over the Dodgers in the annual Freeway Series.
The Dodgers have struggled with their cross-town rivals the last few seasons, going just 7-16 in the last 23 meetings, so today should come as no surprise that we’re playing the Angels and Jered Weaver to get the win at Dodger Stadium.
Weaver has pitched very well in his career against the Dodgers and at Dodger Stadium. In three career starts in Dodger Stadium, he’s given up just one run in 16.1 innings.
The Angels have been playing very well lately, going 9-2 on the road, 8-0 as road ‘dogs, 21-7 in interleague road games and they are 37-16 in Sunday games.
The Dodgers are just 2-5 in interleague action and they are going with rookie Carlos Monasterios tonight. I’ll go with the Angels to make it three straight over the Dodgers.
4♦ L.A. ANGELS
JOEL TYSON
6-2 the last 8 days with my comp play releases.
NBA total tonight for you, and I will go with the under to come through one more time in the Finals.
Both games played in this series in Beantown have stayed under the posted total, and the under is now on a 4-1-1 run the last 6 times these teams have met dating back to the regular season.
Defense has been the order of the day, and even though the linemakers have adjusted the price of the total a few points, I still do not see this game heading over the posted total.
Until we have that "no doubt about it" over, have to continue to play the under.
4♦ UNDER
JEFF BENTON
Missed with Saturday’s freebie on the Rays run-line over Florida. Still, I’m on an 86-57-2 roll with selections that I’m giving away! For Sunday, we’ll head to Cincinnati and play the Reds as a slight favorite against the Royals.
Obviously, the only reason Kansas City isn’t a huge underdog here is because Zack Greinke is taking the ball. But Greinke has done a complete 180 from his insanely dominant 2009 season. He’s 1-8 with a 4.05 ERA, and the Royals are 2-11 in his 13 starts. Here’s how bad things have been for last year’s A.L. Cy Young winner: Of the 204 pitchers who have started in the big leagues this season, Greinke ranks 204th on the money list – meaning he’s the LEAST profitable pitcher in all of baseball!
While Greinke has definitely come back to earth this year in terms of his stuff – heck, he’s 0-4 with a 7.97 ERA in his last four outings – to be fair, it’s not entirely his fault. He’s been victimized numerous times by a shaky bullpen, and he gets the worst run support of any marquee starter in the sport – the Royals average just 3.1 runs per game when Greinke pitches, including a paltry 2 runs per game when he pitches on the road. In fact, Greinke is 0-5 on the road despite a solid 3.40 ERA.
Pitching opposite Greinke today is Reds rookie Sam LeCure, who has been solid in his first three big-league starts, posting a 3.12 ERA (six runs allowed in 17 1/3 innings). LeCure is just 1-2 in those starts, but that includes a 3-0 home loss to the Giants on Tuesday (the right-hander gave up just a run on five hits in six innings). So far in two home games, LeCure has yielded just three runs in 11 innings (2.25 ERA).
Finally, even if you give the Royals the edge on the mound – just because of experience – it’s only a slight edge. And in every other area, the Reds (36-27 overall, 22-14 at home) are superior to Kansas City (26-37 overall, 14-19 on the road). In fact, with last night’s 11-5 rout of the Royals, Cincinnati is on positive streaks of 40-12 against losing teams, 21-7 against losing teams at home and 16-7 versus right-handed starters, while the Royals have dropped 12 of Greinke’s last 14 starts dating to his 2009 finale and 49 of his last 72 road outings.
5♦ CINCINNATI REDS
Steve Merril
Braves vs. Twins
Play: Under 9
The Twins and Braves have played a pair of close, one-run games the last two nights. They'll close out their season in Minnesota on Sunday afternoon. Minnesota’s Kevin Slowey has been money as of late going 2-0 with a 0.87 in his last three starts. The righty is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in seven starts at home. Slowey faced Atlanta way back in 2007 giving up three runs and seven hits in six innings of work. Current Braves hitters are 3 for 22 against Slowey in their careers with Melky Cabrera getting two of those three hits in nine at-bats. Atlanta has gone Under in three of their last four games as they get set to wrap up an 11-game road trip. Kris Medlen gets the start for the Braves. He's 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA in 19 appearances. The righty has made six starts with four of them going Under the total. He's 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts on the road. Not a single Twins hitter has faced Medlen which gives him a slight advantage here. Minnesota has gone Under in 18 of their 32 home games as they've been forced to manufacture runs playing ‘small ball’ instead of relying on power baseball. Both pitchers are in good current form so we’ll recommend a play on the Under as we expect another low-scoring game between the Braves and Twins this afternoon