Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -105
Greinke's last 2 starts haven't been good, but for the most part he has pitched well this season. His recent struggles should have him that much more focused today. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been at his best on the road (3.40 ERA, 1.133 WHIP), and the fact that the Reds have never seen him will give the Royals the advantage. Plus, Cincy is only 10-29 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 since 1997. The Royals have won 4 of their last 5 against Cincy, and they are a strong 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. In addition, the Reds have dropped LeCure's last 2 starts while being outscored 7-1. Look for Greinke to rediscover his Cy Young magic today and lead the Royals to a win.
Tom Freese
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres
Seattle starter Felix Hernandez has allowed 3 or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts. The Mariners are 7-3 UNDER their last their last 10 Interleague road games. Seattle is 6-2 UNDER in Hernandez last 8 starts vs. NL West teams and he is 4-1 UNDER vs. the Padres. San Diego starter Clayton Richard has allowed 3 runs or less runs in 11 of his 12 starts this year. The Padres are 34-15-4 UNDER vs. righty starters and they 7-3-1 UNDER their last a games overall. The Padres are 9-1-1 UNDER their last 11 Interleague games vs. righty starters. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
EZWINNERS
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
San Francisco Giants -192
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
The Giants starting pitcher Matt Cain has been dominating recently. Cain is 5-4 this season with an ERA of just 2.11 but over his last three starts Cain is 3-0 with an ERA of only 0.35. Cain went eight innings earlier this season in a start against Oakland and did not allow an earned run on five hits and I expect him to dominate this Oakland lineup once again that must now have the pitcher bat while playing in the national league park. The A's will send Vic Mazzaro to the mound for this game and Mazzaro has only made two starts this season. Mazzaro was the beneficiary of a ten run outburst by the A's offense against the Angels in his last start on Tuesday as he picked up the win, but Mazzaro is very hitable as his 5.63 ERA would indicate. In his two previous starts against the Giants, Mazzaro is 0-2 with an ERA of 5.25 and I like the Giants to put up some runs against him here. The A's are only 5-12 in their last seventeen interleague games against a team with a winning record. Play on San Francisco.
Gill Alexander
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
NYM (-140) vs BAL
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
I'll make this write-up simple. Pelfrey has a 1.19 ERA in his last 5 outings. Millwood has a 6.34 ERA in his last 6 starts. Much is being made about Millwood having a 1.89 ERA n his last 5 appearances v NYM, but he has pitched a grand total of 6 innings v NYM since 2004, so that stat means absolutely nothing. Pelfrey has an outstanding 3.20FIP (13th best in MLB) while Millwood has a 4.96FIP (9th worst in MLB). The Mets have won 8 of 10. The Orioles have lost 14 of 16. I like for those trends to continue today. -140 is cheap here.
Sac Lawson
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
COL / TOR Under 9.5
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
This will be very brief... First off.. Colorado has not had a game with 10 total runs since Friday the 4th. They have been under that mark in 8 straight games and 10 out of their last 11. Their bats are definitely not red hot right now, and their bullpen/rotation has been solid.
FOR THE LARGEST SELECTION OF FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Jeff Francis is on the mound for Colorado, and I have tons of faith that he'll continue his solid start trend. All of his 5 starts have had games that finished with less than 8 runs. On the other side, a lot of people will look to fade Litsch, or at least expect that he'll pitch poorly. But if you remember back to last year, this was actually the best starter in their rotation for the greater portion of the first 100 games last season. Coming back from an elbow injury, word on the streets is that he's ready to go. I've simply gotta pull the trigger on this enormous total with two pitchers that are extremely talented, and maybe forgotten to the point where people assume mediocrity. Play 1 unit on the UNDER here and watch Litsch return in full form!
John Ryan
Minnesota Lynx at Los Angeles Sparks
Prediction: Los Angeles Sparks
3* graded play on Los Angeles as they take on Minnesota in WNBA action set to start at 8:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that LA will win this game by more than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 33-7 ATS for 83% winners since 2004. Play on favorites in a game involving two explosive offensive teams >=76 PPG and after a loss by 10 points or more. Minnesota is not in a good spot noting that they are 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) after a road game where both teams score 75 or more points over the last 2 seasons; 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog since 1997. Take Los Angeles.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
When Seattle sends Felix Hernandez to the hill against the Padres the in the conclusion of this three game series between the Mariners and Padres in San Diego this afternoon they will do so knowing the 'King' is 4-2 in his career team starts in this series, including 2-0 in this park. With the M's 10-2 in their last 12 games in San Diego, look for Hernandez to improve to 10-3 in his career road starts during June here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Seattle.
Play on: Seattle Mariners
Wunderdog
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Cleveland Indians
Don't look now but the Indians have won four straight including wins at +160 and +185. We were on them at +185 a few days ago and will back them again as a big dog here. It's not often we can say this, but we get extra value here by fading a rookie pitcher. This line is jacked due to the phenom Strasburg. Everyone wants a piece of him, so we get extra line value by going the other way. Strasburg's team is just 12-21 on the road this season, but they are a prohibitive favorite against a hot team here? Overall the Nats are 18-29 the past three seasons as a favorite and 7-24 the past two seasons after a game in which they scored under 2 runs. I like Cleveland at this line here.
BEN BURNS
Oakland Athletics @ San Francisco Giants
PICK: San Francisco Giants
The Giants have won the first two games of the series. With their ace on the mound and currently in terrific form, they've got a great shot at the sweep.
With a 2.11 ERA and 0.996 WHIP, Matt Cain is having another terrific season. Those stats don't reveal quite how dominant he's been lately though. Indeed, he's gone 3-0 with a remarkable 0.35 ERA and 0.654 WHIP over his last three starts. In those three games, he went 26 innings (9, 9 and 8) and allowed only 12 hits and one run. It doesn't get much better than that! The Giants won by a combined score 12-1.
While Cain has been dominant, Mazzara comes in with a 4.91 ERA and 1.858 WHIP. He's only made two starts and he's got a 5.62 ERA in those games. Cain goes the distance (or close to) in his starts, Mazzaro has gone just five and three innings in his two starts. While Mazzaro has been fortunate to get some run support, given Cain's recent dominance, he's unlikely to receive the same luxury here.
Cain has a 2.44 ERA and 0.968 WHIP against the A's. Mazzaro, on the other hand, is 0-2 with a 5.25 ERA vs. the Giants.
The A's are 11-19 on the road. The Giants are 21-11 at home.
The Giants are 63-31 the last 94 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -175 to -200 range. That includes a 5-1 mark their last six in that role. Consider laying the wood.
BIG AL
Royals @ Reds
PICK: Over 8.5
To say it's been a rough follow-up season to his Cy Young campaign in 2009 for Zack Greinke would be a huge understatement. Not only does Greinke have a 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP which are not even in the same zip code as his incredible numbers last season, but what must be really frustrating for him is the fact that Royals are just 2-11 in Greinke's 13 starts. Some of that is due to a lack of run support, but clearly a big part of it has been the drop-off in form of Greinke himself. He could very well struggle more this afternoon as Greinke's career numbers in inter-league play are rather ugly at 8-6 with a 4.84 ERA in 21 appearances (15 starts) against the NL. Greinke has never pitched in Great American Ball Park before but he no doubt knows that it is a tough place for pitchers and that Cincy has been putting up plenty or runs there lately and they've plated 29 in their last four games on this home-stand including 11 on Saturday night against KC. 26-year-old Reds righthander Sam LeCure would love to have that kind of run support and there is a good chance he'll get it. With the 11-5 game on Saturday, the over is now 8-3 in the last 11 games between these two. Take the 'over.'
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -105
Greinke's last 2 starts haven't been good, but for the most part he has pitched well this season. His recent struggles should have him that much more focused today. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner has been at his best on the road (3.40 ERA, 1.133 WHIP), and the fact that the Reds have never seen him will give the Royals the advantage. Plus, Cincy is only 10-29 vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 4.00 to 4.70 since 1997. The Royals have won 4 of their last 5 against Cincy, and they are a strong 7-3 in their last 10 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record. In addition, the Reds have dropped LeCure's last 2 starts while being outscored 7-1. Look for Greinke to rediscover his Cy Young magic today and lead the Royals to a win.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Minnesota Twins -141
Medlen has been solid for the Braves, but Slowey unquestionably gives the Twins the edge at home this afternoon. Slowey has been extremely dialed in, posting an ERA of just 0.87 over his last 3 starts. Compare that to the 4.42 ERA Medlen is carrying over his last 3. In addition, the Twins are an incredible 21-5 in Slowey's last 26 home starts and 8-1 in his last 9 interleague starts. Even with yesterday's win, the Braves have still dropped 4 of their last 5 in Minnesota, and they are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win and only 5-16 in their last 21 games as an underdog. Take the Twins.
SPORTS WAGERS
Los Angeles +1.25 over BOSTON
No team has won two in a row in this series so there’s no reason to believe that will change now. More significant however, is the oddsmakers throwing out a line of Boston –2½, the same line they threw up for game 3. After losing game three the oddsmakers put up a –3½ for game 4 and the C’s covered with a big fourth quarter. Now the line comes down a point and that is highly curious. A look at the updated series price sees the Lakers as a –2.03 favorite with today’s game being in Boston and the Lakers potentially being down 3-2. So, you can analyze this game till your blue in the face. By reading “between the lines” one can only conclude the oddsmakers strongly believe in the Lakers today and that is all you need to know. Play: Los Angeles +1.25 (Risking 2 units).
Kansas City –1.05 over CINCINNATI
Zach Greinke has not been nearly as good as last season but he still doesn’t deserve a 1-8 record. He’s gotten very little run support but figures to get a bunch here. Greinke still has a bunch of gems to his credit this season that include a four-hitter against the Rays in 8 IP and a six-inning, five hit, one run performance against the Red Sox. The best news is that the Reds have never seen Greinke and that has to work to his advantage. Sam LeCure is pitching only because Homer Bailey is injured and as soon as Bailey comes back LeCure will be relegated to pen duty or more likely be sent back to the minors. LeCure is 1-2 with a very respectable 3.12 ERA but don’t be fooled by that. His three starts came against the Astros, Cards and Giants and that trifecta could make anyone look good. Fact is, LeCure (-24 BPV, 4-2-3 PQS) has avoided disaster due to an inflated 85% strand rate. The lack of control spell potential trouble, as LeCure has walked 12 batters in 12 innings and has a 1.67 WHIP. LeCure takes a huge step up in class when facing this very dangerous offense and while the Reds offense is also dangerous, Greinke’s chances of success here is so much better than LeCure’s. Play: Kansas City –1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels +1.19 over LOS ANGELES
The Angels are on fire with 14 wins over its last 18 games and after winning the first two games of this series they have its ace going today, Jered Weaver. Weaver has 89 K’s in 81 IP and has walked just 22 batters all year. He allowed four jacks in his first five starts but did not allow a single jack in seven of his next nine starts leading up to this game. Weaver has a BAA of .239, an ERA of 3.20 and his 127 BPV is one of the best in the game. Carlos Monasterios (22 BPV) has worked five innings or more in each of his three most recent starts. The rookie's skills to-date are underwhelming, as he has been aided by a 22% hit rate and 86% strand rate. The 4.78 xERA here suggests the 2.27 ERA is unlikely to be sustained. Monasterios has benefitted from facing the D-Backs and Cards both at Dodger Stadium and when he faced the Rocks in Colorado he gave up four runs in five innings before being yanked. The guy is a reliever that is filling in for Vincente Padilla and in no way does he have an edge over Weaver. There is some true value here on the pooch, as Monasterios is average at best and again, the Angels are the hottest team in the league. Play: L.A. Angels +1.19 (Risking 2 units).
Jack Jones
Chicago Cubs -145
I can't see the Cubs getting swept by their intra-city rivals in the Chicago White Sox Sunday. The starting pitching match-up clearly favors the North Siders in this one and I'll take advantage. Ted Lilly sports a 3.28 ERA and 1.094 WHIP this season, including a 1.59 ERA and 0.882 WHIP in his last 3 starts. He has been a victim of poor run support, but I don't see that being the case Sunday. The North Siders should be able to get after Gavin Floyd, who is 2-6 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in 12 starts this season.
Lilly has posted a 5-2 career record in 10 starts vs. the White Sox, and his teams are 8-2 in those 10 starts. The Cubs have now lost 5 straight to the South Siders, so motivation for a win Sunday is at an all-time high in this series. The Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. The White Sox are 3-12 against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less this season. The White Sox are 1-7 in Floyd's last 8 starts as a road underdog. The South Siders are 1-10 in Floyd's last 11 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. The North Siders are 5-0 in Lilly's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Roll with the Cubs Sunday night.
Dave Price
1 Unit on San Diego Padres -110
Look for the Padres to complete the sweep behind Richard, who is 2-0 lifetime against the M's with an ERA of 0.69. One of those wins came in Seattle last month when he gave up just 1 run in 7 innings of work. The Padres are 10-4 in Richard's last 14 home starts. We know about the kind of stuff Hernandez has, but it hasn't come together for him this season. And when it has, he has been lacking run support. The Mariners are 1-8 in Hernandez's last 9 starts, including 0-5 in his last 5 road starts. Side with San Diego.