Sac Lawson
COL / TOR Under 9.5
This will be very brief... First off.. Colorado has not had a game with 10 total runs since Friday the 4th. They have been under that mark in 8 straight games and 10 out of their last 11. Their bats are definitely not red hot right now, and their bullpen/rotation has been solid.
Jeff Francis is on the mound for Colorado, and I have tons of faith that he'll continue his solid start trend. All of his 5 starts have had games that finished with less than 8 runs. On the other side, a lot of people will look to fade Litsch, or at least expect that he'll pitch poorly. But if you remember back to last year, this was actually the best starter in their rotation for the greater portion of the first 100 games last season. Coming back from an elbow injury, word on the streets is that he's ready to go. I've simply gotta pull the trigger on this enormous total with two pitchers that are extremely talented, and maybe forgotten to the point where people assume mediocrity. Play 1 unit on the UNDER here and watch Litsch return in full form!
JR O'Donnell
MIN / ATL Under 8.5
Let's break this baby down: Under the total today as Atlanta and the Minny Twins will stay well under 8.5 + 100 as runs have been tough to come by in this series. The Bravos hurler Medlen (3-1, 3.21) has been super sharp as of late and the Minny Twins K Slowey 7-3, 3.45 ERA is FLAT OUT IN THE ZONE! Let's ride the under today as JR O is backing a Sunday Matinee Under here in Minny. The Twins/Bravos struggle again today. Bravos want to get back home today off that killer road trip!
Karl Garrett
G-Man going with the under in tonight's NBA contest.
The first two games in Boston have both stayed under the total, and as a result, the linemaker has lowered the total by another 3-points.
I know that we are due for an offensive explosion, but in my mind, you have to keep riding the under until you see the offense actually do something tangible in this series.
The Celtics are now on a 12-3-1 under tear their last 16 against the Pacific Division, while the Lakers have played low to a tune of 6-2-1 their last 9 versus the Atlantic Division.
Overall, these teams are on a 5-2-1 under run their last 8 games played, and until I see actual signs that the offense can carry the game for the full four quarters, I have to stick with the low to be the way to go.
G-Man going under in Game Five of the NBA Finals.
2♦ UNDER
Chris Jordan
The same way Danny Haren was dominant yesterday is the same way Chris Carpenter will step up against the Diamondbacks.
The right-handed ace is a perfect 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA in his last three starts, and pitched well enough to win last Tuesday in Los Angeles, tossing one of his best efforts of the season. He scattered six hits over seven scoreless innings and walked one, but the Dodgers were the ones who broke through in the eighth for a 1-0 victory over the Redbirds.
He'll get back on track with a dominating win over the Diamondbacks, who he's dominated over his career.
Carpenter, who happens to be going for his 125th career win, is 4-0 with a 2.14 ERA in eight lifetime starts against the Snakes.
He'll easily outshine Edwin Jackson , who is 0-2 with a 3.72 ERA in three career starts versus the Cardinals. For the season the right-hander is 3-6 with a 5.38 ERA.
Take the Cardinals today.
4♦ CARDINALS
Stephen Nover
I'm 25-8-1 with my last 34 complementary selections following Saturday's winner on the Indians.
Have things really gotten this bad for Zach Greinke? The reigning Cy Young Award winner of the American League is 1-8. No defending Cy Young Award winner has started the following season 1-8.
The oddsmaker has added another insult opening Greinke as an underdog to Cincinnati rookie Sam LeCure in Sunday's matchup. LeCure probably would still be in the minors if injured Homer Bailey was able to come off the DL.
I realize the Royals don't score for Greinke. Kansas City has managed to put up zero runs during Greinke's last four starts when he's been in the game.
But Greinke a 'dog to LeCure? I'm drawing the line there and backing the far superior pitcher. Greinke has started 13 games this season and held the opposition to three or fewer earned runs nine times.
LeCure has made three starts and hasn't been bad. But he's walked four batters in every outing and will be pitching his first day game at Great American BallPark, a hitter's paradise.
The Reds' bullpen hasn't been anything special. Francisco Cordero has been shaky as the closer and Nick Masset has been dreadful as a bridge to Cordero. Ancient Arthur Rhodes actually has been Cincinnati's most reliable reliever.
3♦ ROYALS
Michael Cannon
I’m 61-51 with my last 112 overall free plays.
Take the Brewers for the home win over the Rangers.
Yovani Gallardo will start for Milwaukee and he hasn’t lost since April 10.
The right-hander is 6-0 with a 1.67 ERA in his last 11 starts and has allowed just one run over his last 23 innings.
Texas will counter with Colby Lewis, who has dropped his last four road starts and is winless in his last six outings away from Arlington. The right-hander is 1-2 with an 11.12 ERA in three career interleague starts.
Take the Brewers for the home win.
3♦ MILWAUKEE
Matt Rivers
Certain times teams can have a huge advantage in a game but are still just laying too much and that is the deal here.
Of course Matt Cain is much better than Vin Mazzaro but neither team really hits and this game probably has 4-2 either way written all over it. Don't get me wrong, Cain is a stud a lot of the time and Mazzaro is not close to that but when up against the weak hitting Giants I think that Mazzaro will have a second straight quality outing. He was very good last time out in upsetting the big chalk Angels and I would not be all that shocked to see history repeat itself here.
The Giants are just not a hard hitting team and are laying too much here. The A's are not good either but they are not the team that is laying this hefty price.
It's not rocket science, they have the superior hurler and definitely should win this game but the number is just too much and I will take my chances with this takeback.
Pick: Oakland
GREG SHAKER
LA Lakers/Boston Celtics Over 187
I have not made too many plays in these NBA Playoff games but I am 6-1 when doing so and all of those plays have been Totals. I am going to go that route again and I am going to be brief with my thoughts. Three out of four of these Final Series Games have not topped the total but game 3 was much like game 2 in that we had a quicker pace of action, more shots, and poor Laker Shooting. That all added up to what was a Squeeker Under had that game been set at what it is for this one. Kobe was not on his game at all and the primary reason why LA Managed just 32 of 71 from the court. That shooting disparity was not as bad as game 2 with just 29 of 71 shots made. This is likely to change as Bryant is a strong competitor and most always follows a poor performance with a good one. I do know that his banged up a bit but these are the finals and he will be ready to go tonight. We have a strong adjustment by Oddsmakers for this contest and that alone gives us what I consider a value number. Lest we forget that while Under is 3-1 for this series, this number has been obtained twice and close to 3 times. LA cannot let the Celtics play their game tonight, that would be strong halfcourt action. They have to pick their fast break opps more often and we can expect Fisher to help that cause with Kobe likely to be in and out of this contest. I have checked the last 10 Posted Totals for these two when they play and this line is lower than all of them. I am not in love with this Total, but I can't pass the value oddsmakers have given us here.
Oakland A's/SF Giants Under 8 Runs
I have to be brief here because I am multi-tasking a lot this morning but Geez I am 11-1 on these forum plays this week so maybe I have a pretty good grip going. The Weather Pattern today is not too spiffy but The Cain Pattern is. It usly just takes 1 Good effort by either starter to give us UNDER this number and we are likely to see that today from this guy. He has been a Monster this year, a Godzilla of late, and UNDER this total has happened 9 of his last 10 thrown with the only one going Over, garnering just 9 runs. Ok, that's pretty good right there. No other thought here except to let "The Trenders" know that the Oakland Thrower is 8-1-1 UNDER his last 10 Road games. That was for fun but this is not. My MLB Model has at or UNDER 8 hitting here at just over 56.3% of the time. That is longterm profit stuff and that is what we want right?
Nite Owl Sports
Lakers @ Celtics
Pick: Over 187
We like the OVER here as a line value play. And for that good line value we thank the so-called “betting public” which comes “out of the wood work” in the late NBA playoff rounds every year and collectively bets/loses millions of dollars on the NBA finals and is both fickle and impressionable, as are most of the “talking heads” on ESPN and other sports networks who they often rely on. As a result, the betting public (or the “masses of asses,” as we prefer to call them) were all over the Lakers in game two, with many predicting a four game sweep. But after Boston’s strong performance in game two in LA, the pendulum swung the other way, with most of that same betting public liking Boston at home in game 3, with game two freshest in their minds, and having been reminded by those “talking heads” that in beating the Lakers 4-2 in the June 2008 finals, the Celtics were 3-0 both SU and ATS in the 3 games at home, including a blowout in the game 6 finale. Then Boston not only gave back their home court advantage in losing game 3 but also looked bad in doing it, particularly Ray Allen, who went from the penthouse in game 2 in LA (with 32 points and a record-setting 8 treys) to the outhouse in game 3 at home, with just 2 points on an ugly 0-13 shooting night that included 0-8 on trey attempts. So after the first 3 games, the “popular team” was 0-2 SU and ATS (in games 2 and 3), followed by the support being pretty evenly divided for game 4, as it is for this game 5 (which it should be, with this being an absolutely must win game for Boston but also a very important game for Lakers, as they don’t want to be headed home trailing 3-2 and one “off game” away from elimination).
Similarly, with the under cashing in 3 of the 4 games so far, and in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, also the site for game 5, the generally “over-oriented” betting public has jumped on the under “band wagon” and has driven the totals line down from 190 in game 4 to 187 for game 5 after two days of lines having been posted for this game (the game 5 total opened briefly at 189, from which it was bet down quickly and steadily). So the question for this game is whether the betting public, the line makers and the law of averages have not only taken all of the line value out of the under at 187, but have also given the OVER some line value of its own, which we believe could very well be the case. And despite us having won with the full game under in both games 3 and 4 in Boston, we believe the totals line for this game 5 is just too low at 187 or 187.5, given the risk of both OT and late game fouling (either of which can quickly turn an apparent under into an Over late in a close game), with a very close game expected here.
And while we acknowledge that both defenses have played well for the most part, and both teams have had some prolonged dry spells during games 1-4, both offenses are also very capable, as we saw with the record-breaking performance by Celtics’ “assassin” Ray Allen in game 2 (32 points on 11-20 shooting with a record-breaking 8 treys), as well as Kobe’s 33 points last game on 10-22 shooting, including 6-11 treys. And despite that, Kobe still has yet to have one of his classic “break-out” games, with no game altering 4Q performances or buzzer beaters, having more or less “disappeared” in the 4Q of games 2-4, and Lakers not in need of any Kobe late game heroics in their lop-sided game one win. Moreover, after a horrible shooting night in game 3 (just two points on 0-13) and a sub par game last game (12 points on 4-11, including 0-4 on treys), we believe Celtics’ Ray Allen could be due for another big game. And note that Celtics have had a few barnburners at home vs A teams like Lakers TY in playoffs and the late regular season, such as their 230 point home game vs Cavs in April and 219 point home game 3 vs Cavs.
So based on the above support, we’ll not only (officially) go with the Over 187 here for two units, but also suggest teasing the Over down even lower (to 182 and Boston to +2>) if your book will let you tease opposite sides in the same teaser, which should pay out at least +150 odds (or if that triple option is not available to you, then do two separate two team side/total teasers, one of Boston to the Over and the other of Lakers to the Over).
O.C. Dooley
Dodgers -125
It is amazing that the visitors are an decided underdog today considering that the Angels are on a current 11-3 tear and have their #1 rotation starter on the mound. Even though Jered Weaver allowed “double digit” hits and a multitude of runs last time on the mound, he just happens to lead the entire American League with 89 strikeouts recorded. Of course Weaver this afternoon will be facing a National League opponent and he is going to be asked to pitch very deep into the contest. Last night the Angels used 4 different relievers who shutout the Dodgers in the final 4 innings, so the bullpen has been extended. One may want to call this a “law of averages” pick as the Angels for the first time since way back in 1964 have won TEN different times on a road trip as they reached the double-digit mark last night. On both Friday (-170) and Saturday (-150) the hometown Dodgers were a prohibitive favorite so they have a lot of making up to do on this Sunday for the oddsmakers. The Dodgers entered this “freeway series” on a 23-7 overall tear and they also were on a 23-10 roll in front of their HOME fans. Here is a 70-PERCENT SYSTEM (69-30 past five years) which plays AGAINST road teams like the Angels who have won 12 times in a 15-game stretch, in a battle of two squads with winning overall records. Jered Weaver of the Halos is a very poor 3-11 on the ROAD long term against “winning” opposition