Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday, June 16

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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St Louis Cardinals at Miami MarlinsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: St Louis CardinalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Redbirds and the Fish conclude a three-game series at Marlins Park Sunday where Florida's Ricky Nolasco looks to put a halt his losing ways. Nolasco toes the slab having dropped 14 of his last 17 team starts overall. He's also come up a loser in 11 of his last 13 during the month of June, including eight straight at home. With the Cardinals 4-0 all-time in Miami against Nolasco, expect more of the same this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Sam MartinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Miami at San AntonioFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Each game this series has seen the eventual winning team pull away for a strong second half, with the Spurs doing so in Games One and Three and Miami returning the favor in Games Two and Four. With this series now down to a best-of-three setting we look for both defenses to bring their A-game in a defensive battle. These teams have played against each other enough games in a row to memorize their offensive sets and get a feel of what they are going to do in specific game situations. The 53% shooting the Spurs allowed Miami to have in Thursday's win was the highest San Antonio has allowed in two months. Miami is 11-3 Under when playing with two days rest and this one stays well under the total.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles +102FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There is a lot of value on Baltimore today when the Red Sox send Jon Lester to the mound. In his last 3 starts Lester has posted a 7.41 ERA and a 2.059 WHIP with a 0-2 record. Lester will be facing one of the most dangerous offenses in the major leagues as Baltimore averages 4.9 runs per game.
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The Red Sox are batting a mere .254 over their past 7 games and they will have to face a stingy Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzales has a 3.71 ERA on the season and the Orioles are 7-4 in his 11 starts this season. Gonzalez has showed no signs of slowing down as he has posted a 3.15 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Orioles are 3-0 during that span.

Art AronsonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco vs. AtlantaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tim Lincecum (4-6, 4.70 ERA) gets the call for the visitors; Lincecum gave up four runs over 4 2/3's frames of work in an 8-2 loss to the Pirates on Tuesday; he served up seven hits to go along with two walks. The beleaguered right-hander has now lost four of his last five and unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered for the veteran as he's just 1-3 with a pretty pedestrian 5.40 ERA away from friendly confines so far this season. Lincecum will be opposed by Julio Teheran (4-3, 3.62 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off six hits over six frames in a 7-6 loss to the soft-hitting Friars on Monday. The 22-year old has started to exhibit some "cracks in the armor" lately (note that Teheran is just 3-3 with a sub-par 4.04 ERA in all "night games" this season). Both starters come in with significant issues making the "over" definitely worth a second look in this matchup.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at HoustonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When these teams meet there are often high scoring games with the over 9-4 in the last 13 meetings. This is a good offensive park and Chicago southpaw starter Hector Santiago walks too many batters, 26 in 52 innings, plus he has been getting worse walking 11 in in his last three starts (15.2 innings). He hasn't thrown a lot against Houston but does have a 13.50 ERA against them. The over is 7-1 in the Astros last 8 home games vs. a left-handed starter and 9-2 over the total overall against a lefty. Houston is a good hitter's park so look for more runs than oddsmakers expect.

Rob Vinciletti

San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves

Atlanta has some solid Angles in their favor tonight. The Braves are 9-3 at home off a home win where they scored 5 or more runs and 4-1 this season at home when the posted total is 8 to 8.5. When they are a home favorite from -150 to 175 they have won 7 of 9 times. Times certainly have Changes for the Giants and Tim Lincecum. Just 2 years ago San Francisco and T-Lin would have been a 150+ favorite in a game like this. However Lincecum clearly not the Dominant force he once was as he has lost velocity on a fastball that was unhittable on certain nights. Now he appears to be a 3rd or 4th starter on a team chocked with pitching. Licecum has struggled particularly on the road again this season where his Era is an elevated 5.40. Tonight he will take on J. Teheran who appears to have his head on straight this season as he has won 4 of 5 at home and has a nice 2.97 home era. The Braves will follow him up with a bullpen that has a solid 2.01 era at home. Look for the Braves to take the Finale.

GamePlan

Washington/Cleveland Under 7.5

Two pitchers going today in great pitching form. Strasburg and Kluber have been on the top of their games recently. Straburg has a 1.59 ERA over his last three starts and Kluber has a 2.81 ERA over his last three starts.

Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 5-0-1 in Nationals last 6 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Indians last 5 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Under is 5-0 in Indians last 5 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the under today.

Jeffrey Brandes

Washington vs. Cleveland
Play: Under 7½

WASHINGTON NATIONALS: STEPHEN STRASBURG (R) ERA: 2.54 W/L: 3-5
CLEVELAND INDIANS: COREY KLUBER (R) ERA: 4.30 W/L: 3-4

For the Nationals, STEPHEN STRASBURG's last full start was a 6-1 win over the Phillies. He pitched eight innings and gave up one run striking out nine. In his last 3 starts he's 1-0 , has 18 K's, and an ERA of 1.59 in 17 innings.

COREY KLUBER's last start was excellent. He allowed just one run to the
Rangers over eight innings. He gave up six hits, walked three and struck out three. In his last 3 starts he's 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA.

Key Trends:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Washington's last 8 games when playing
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games

Dave Price

New York Mets -106

New York's Hefner is 1-6, but he's pitched well enough to have a much better record. He has a 3.91 ERA through 12 starts, including a 3.09 ERA through six home starts. He enters in great form with a 2.37 ERA over his last three starts. Chicago's Garza is carrying a 6.26 after five starts, and he has a 7.36 ERA over his last three starts after giving up nine earned runs in five innings his last time out. The Cubs are just 9-29 since the start of last season when facing an NL starter with an ERA of 3.50 to 4.20. The Cubs are also 17-44 in their last 61 road games versus a right-handed starter. Bet the Mets.

Dave Cokin

Chicago White Sox at Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros

It's not exactly news that the Astros are bringing up the rear in the AL West. Picking Houston to finish in last place this season wasn't rocket science. They're mostly too young and generally just not talented enough to be anything other than a cellar dweller.

What's more newsworthy is the steep decline of the White Sox. This team was a playoff contender until a September collapse last season. But the 2013 Chisox have little in common with the previous edition. They're not just a team that's struggling. Fact is, this team pretty much stinks right now and I don't really see things getting significantly better.

Age, injuries to their pitchers, a barren farm system and what sure looks like a dead attitude add up to bad results. That's the White Sox right now. That last aspect, the team's apparent personality, is the most troubling. This squad has played what can only be described as mentally sloppy baseball all season. As they fall deeper into the AL Central depths, it's probably going to keep getting worse.

Personally, I think the White Sox need to be putting a fire sale in place. They won't get much for the old farts on the roster, who make big bucks and aren't even mildly desired commodities. But at this point, some of these guys would be addition by subtraction.

The Astros are actually in better shape than the White Sox. They don't have great skills, but I really like the energy on this team and they at least have displayed the will to win. That has shown in this series, with Houston playing the much crisper baseball and as a result, they're up 2-0 in this wraparound set that concludes on Monday.

I rate the Hector Santiago-Dallas Keuchel pitching matchup roughly even. Santiago has the better ERA, but Keuchel owns a slim edge in most of the metric comparisons. The offensive edge goes to the hosts. They're not that bad against lefties, whereas the White Sox haven't hit southpaws worth a lick.

The White Sox are marginally superior to Houston overall, but they're not today. I see some legitimate value in backing the Astros as a home dog in this hookup.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati RedsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Properly embarrassed on Saturday by a 6-0 score, expect the Reds to bounce back strongly in the rubber match of this weekend set against the Brewers. Milwaukee's problem to day figures to be starter Wily Peralta, whose recent efforts leave more than a little to be desired (6.74 ERA in last seven outings, six of those being losses for the Brewers). Cincy ace Johnny Cueto returns to active duty after a short stint on the DL, and his numbers from earlier this season were spectacular(2.17 ERA, 0.88 WHIP. .157 OBA).

CRAIG DAVIS

My free play is on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line.

Simply put, the Cardinals are the best team in baseball playing the league's worst. Sure, the Marlins did take the first game of this series and had previously won five of their last seven... but we're not stupid.

The writing is on the wall for the Fish, as they'll continue to struggle with no starting pitching, no bullpen, and very little offense at times.

As much as I'm indifferent about the Cardinals... you have to give them this much: they are hitting the baseball all over the diamond and getting solid starting pitching from everyone.

Yesterday Carlos Beltran hit two long balls (one from each side of the plate) in the Cards' 13-7 win in Miami. Granted, it's clearly not the type of pitching effort you want out of a guy like Lance Lynn, but the offense continually bails him out, game after game.

Florida sends out Ricky Nolasco to be slaughtered today by the Cardinals, who have been averaging over 6 runs per game during their latest winning streak.

Take St. Louis as your free play of the day.

2* ST. LOUIS -1.5

BRAD WILTON

Another total winner tonight, as San Francisco and Atlanta fly Over the total in you Sunday night spotlight contest.

Yesterday's meeting between the teams ended up going to the Braves in dramatic fashion, 6-5 as the Over came through for the 7th time in the last 9 meetings between the teams.

The Giants have played Overs in 5 of their last 7 games, while the Braves have played Overs in 4 of their last 6 contests.

The pitching matchup also suggests that we will see a few runs, as Tim Lincecum sports a season ERA of 4.70, while Atlanta starter Julio Teheran's ERA is approaching 4.

Just see the runs adding up at Turner Field this Sunday night, as the Giants and Braves conclude their weekend set with an Over for the 8th time in their last 10 meetings.

4* SAN FRANCISCO-ATLANTA OVER

SCOTT DELANEY

My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Angels of Anaheim getting it done at home against the New York Yankees, as the two continue to go in the opposite direction.

While the Angels have caught fire and are surging with a three-game win streak, the Yankees have now lost five in a row since losing a few in Oakland. The streaks continue in Anaheim today, as I don't see the Halos letting the stripes out of town with a win.

We have quite a pitching showdown this afternoon at Angel Stadium with Jered Weaver taking on C.C. Sabathia in a battle aces, and there isn't anyone better at home in a pressure-packed game than there is in Weaver.

The right-hander is 6-2 with a 4.97 ERA lifetime against the Yankees, and I like him much better than Sabathia, who had a rough start his last time out, getting hit pretty good by the Oakland Athletics.

New York's ace lefty has struggled tremendously this season and hasn't seemed to be his self this season. Now he takes on a team he's 6-8 against with a 4.22 ERA during his career.

I won't list either pitcher, cause I don't care enough about either one to hinge my bet on one or the other, I'd rather have the Angels based on momentum.

Take the Halos.

1* ANAHEIM