Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday June, 17

Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

When the Dodgers and White Sox meet in the finale of their three-game Interleague series at Dodgers Stadium Sunday afternoon the Pale Hose will send Jose Quintana to the mound knowing he is off a phony 'inside-out-win' in his last start, a 6-1 victory at Colorado on Tuesday when he lasted 5.3 innings while allowing 10 hits in a 6-1 win. With Capuano 5-1 at home with a 1.66 ERA this season, look for the Sox to fall here this afternoon. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Hollywood Sports

Padres at Athletics
Prediction: Over

The Over is 15-5-1 in the Padres' last 21 games as an underdog -- which they will be again in Sunday's Game Three of their series with Oakland. San Diego (23-43) lost Game Two against the A's by a 6-4 score. Not only have the Padres played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total after a loss but they have also played 8 of their last 9 games Over the Total after allowing at least 5 runs in their last game. They send out Clayton Richard here who is 3-7 with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season. But while Richard enjoys a 2.72 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .238 opponent's batting average in the friendly confines at home in Petco Park, these numbers skyrocket to a 5.73 ERA, 1.52 WHIP and .294 opponent's batting average when on the road. San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 road games Over the Total with Richard on the mound. The Padres have also played 4 of their last 5 games Over the Total with Richard pitching against a team with a losing record. Richard does come off a strong effort in Seattle where he allowed only one run in 7 innings of work -- but this was the first time all season where Richard allowed less than two runs. Furthermore, San Diego has played 6 of their last 8 games Over the Total when Richard was looking to follow up a Quality Start. He faces off against Bartolo Colon who is 6-6 with a 4.21 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP this season. But while the veteran right-hander sports a solid 3.12 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .279 opponent's batting average when on the road, he sees these numbers rise to a 5.80 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .297 opponent's batting average back at home. The A's have played 5 of their last 6 home games Over the Total with the number set in the 7-8.5 range. Additionally, not only has Oakland played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total, but they have played 6 of their last 7 games Over the Total after scoring at least 5 runs in their last game. Given the deeper sabermetrics for both starting pitchers as well as these overwhelming team trends that complement San Diego's proclivity to play games Over the Total when they are an underdog, the Over is a solid play for Sunday.

John Ryan

San Francisco Giants at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

5* graded play on the Seattle Mariners as they take on the San Francisco Giants set to start at 4:10 PM ET. Bumgardner is a strong starting pitcher, but Felix Hernandez is vastly better. Moreover, we are getting a very favorable line as the Giants are playing well and the public is joining that bandwagon serving to make it more expensive to play on the Giants and cheaper for their opponents. Not often do you get a chance to play Hernandez at home as only a slight favorite and when you do it is certainly worth the investment.

Hernandez is an elite starter than nearly always posts a quality start. The Giants have not done well against starters like Hernandez and are just 11-22 losing 12.5 units per one unit wagered using the money line when facing a starting pitcher that throws more than 6.5 innings per start in games played encompassing the last two seasons.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 80-36 making 35.1 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play on AL home teams with a money line of -100 to -150 allowing 4.7 or less runs per game on the season and now facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP of 1.100 or less over his last 10 games.

Michael Alexander

San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners
Play: San Francisco Giants

SAN FRANCISCO is 11-5 in their last 16 interleague games

SAN FRANCISCO is 17-5 in Bumgarners last 22 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

SEATTLE is 13-40 in their last 53 home games vs. a left-handed starter

Charlie Scott

Yankees vs. Nationals
Play: Over 8

Look for Both teams to get back on track offensively, and with a reasonable Total for the Yankees. Both teams have good offense's & mediocre defense. Both Teams are starting Starters #3-4 at best and both bullpens saw plenty of action as these Teams played a 14 Inning game on Saturday.

Rob Vinciletti

Colorado Rockies vs. Detroit Tigers
Play: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers fit a tight 11-2 system here today that plays on home favorites off a home favored win by 2 or more runs at -140 or higher, while scoring 4 or more runs with 5 or more men left on base, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits and had 5+ men left on base. Detroit looks to take the rubber game knowing they are averaging over 5 runs per game the past week and are 7-3 on Sundays. Colorado has been a disaster vs the American league going 1-10. They are also an anemic 6-16 in day games and have dropped 8 of 10 on Sunday. Look for Detroit to get the win.

David Chan

Giants @ Mariners
PICK: Mariners

The Giants' (37-29) Madison Bumgarner (8-4, 3.08 ERA) is set to square off against the Mariners' (28-39) Felix Hernandez (4-5, 3.70 ERA) on the mound this afternoon.

Bumgarner earned his third straight win on Tuesday vs. the Astros, giving up two runs off six hits over 7 2/3's frames of work in the 6-2 victory. He'd finish with a season-high 12 K's to go along with zero walks. Bumgarner has been pretty mediocre on the road this year though, going 3-3 with a 3.89 ERA.

Hernandez is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off nine hits over six frames in a 5-4 setback to the Padres last Tuesday; he cruised through the first five innings, before running into trouble in the sixth:

"I'm tired of pitching like that,' Hernandez said after. "I've got to do something about this.'

Seattle's big right-hander will be looking for a little support today, and his teammates will be looking to oblige; the Mariners rocked Tim Lincecum yesterday for 12 hits, including two first inning home runs:

"It was really nice to see us score some runs here at home and put something together like we did tonight,' Seattle manager Eric Wedge said.

While past success guarantees nothing in the future, Hernandez can throw with the added confidence today in knowing that he's won both career starts vs. the Giants, posting a 3.21 ERA.

I believe the home side will continue its hot hitting and give its ace the support he deserves. What do you think?

Chris Elliott

Reds @ Mets
Pick: Over 7.5

Cincinnati will hand the ball over to right hander Jonny Cuerto on Sunday afternoon for the final game of this 3 game set with the New York Mets. Cuerto has been excellent for the Reds this season with a record of 7-3, 2.46 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and a .252 BAA. He was nearly unhittable through his first 7 starts of the year but has cooled off recently giving up 18 runs in his last 6 starts in 38.2 innings of work, for an ERA of 4.19.

The Mets will send journeyman righty Chris Young to the hill to battle with the Reds. Young has made just 2 appearances for the Mets this season and has a record of 1-0, an ERA of 3.38, WHIP of 1.69, and a BAA of .333. He allowed 4 runs in the 2 starts lasting 10.2 innings. 4 of the last 5 starts that Young has made in the big leagues have ended up going “Over” the total. Young was in the process of carving out a solid MLB career being selected to the All Star game in 2007, until 2008 when he was drilled in the face with a Pujols line drive that landed him on the DL for 2 months with a nasal fracture. He hasn`t been the same since, having only started 24 games from 2009 until present dealing with various shoulder injuries along the way. Young has a career record of 50-37 with a 3.73 ERA.

Brandon Phillips and Joey Votto have been the 2 hottest Reds over the past week, (.440 avg, 3 HR, 9 RBI for Phillips and .350 avg, 2 HR, 6 RBI for Votto). The Cincinnati bats have been piling up the runs recently, tallying 41 in their last 6 games. New York has been scoring regularly as well racking up 37 runs scored in their last 6 games despite being shut down on Saturday. Ike Davis, Kirk Nieuwehhuis, and David Wright continue to be the Mets best hitters as of late and Lucas Duda has turned into a power hitting stud from the left side with 10 HR and 40 RBI on the season. 8 of the last 11 meetings between these two teams have gone “Over” the total. Expect this trend to continue and pick the “Over”.

Jack Jones

Los Angeles Dodgers -115

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value as just a small home favorite over the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of this interleague series. Los Angeles has been going under the radar all season at 41-25, and once again they aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers this afternoon.

Chris Capuano is one of the most underrated starters in the league. The left-hander is 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.162 WHIP in 13 starts this season. Capuano has been virtually untouchable at home, going 5-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 1.079 WHIP in six outings. Chicago is only hitting .242 and scoring 3.5 runs/game against left-handed starters this year.

The Dodgers are 5-0 in their last 5 games following a loss, while the White Sox are 0-5 in their last 5 games following a win. Los Angeles is 42-16 in their last 58 games as a favorite. The Dodgers are 5-0 in Capuano's last 5 starts during game 3 of a series, and 4-0 in Capuano's last 4 starts as a home favorite. Bet the Dodgers Sunday.

Jimmy Boyd

Miami Marlins -113

The Marlins get the nod as our free play as they have the edge on the mound with Josh Johnson. The ace right-hander is in top form and the Marlins have won 7 of his last 8 starts as a result. He has held each of his last 7 opponents to 3 earned runs or fewer. In addition, Johnson is 2-0 with an ERA of 2.88 in 5 career starts versus the Rays. The Marlins have won 3 of his last 4 starts versus the Rays, and he has never allowed more than 3 earned runs in a game against them. Tampa Bay's Alex Cobb is not in top form. He is 0-3 with a 6.27 ERA over his last 3 starts. The Rays are 1-4 in Cobb's last 5 home starts. We'll bet Miami.

Dave Cokin

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks got themselves out all Saturday night against Ervin Santana and the Angels. I'll look for them to rebound against Garrett Richards. Comp play today on Ian Kennedy and the Diamondbacks.

Jim Feist

Chicago White Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers

Interleague action continues here on Sunday with a rare visit to Chavez Ravine by the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers continue to have the MLB best record as they headed into Saturday's game with the Sox at 41-24. In addition, the Dodgers have been very good at home in pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium where they are 23-11. The Dodgers are second in the NL in runs allowed (3.54), 2nd in team ERA (3.15) and 2nd in WHIP (1.224). Chris Capuano starts for the Dodgers with a nifty 8-2 record, 2.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Capuano is coming off a loss where he allowed just two runs to the Angels in a 3-2 loss. In his last 10 starts, Capuano has allowed one run or fewer in six starts and over three runs in just one start. The White Sox are in first place in the AL Central with a 34-30 record. Jose Quintana starts for the Sox. Quintana took over the starting role when John Danks went down with an injury. Quintana has a nice 1.98 ERA and is 2-1. Still, I'm surprised at the low line on the Dodgers here on Sunday. LA is just a 1.20 favorite and that's too much to pass on with the best record in baseball and a very consistent pitcher on the mound. Take the Dodgers.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

MIAMI -4 over Oklahoma City: In games 1 and 2 the Heat were able to build big early leads on this team and the Thunder were able to comeback in both, winning 1 and losing 1. The Heat's fast starts in both games shows just how motivated they are to win the whole darn thing. Lebron has been doing his job to make sure the Heat wins it all and in game two of the series he finally got help from Dwayne Wade. Dwayne had 24 points on 10 of 20 shooting in game 2 and a nother strong game should be expected from him here, as he has an average of 23.9 PPG (48% FG) with 4.0 RPG and 4.0 APG at home in the postseason this year. Miami is 36-7 SU at home on the year and have outscored their opponents by 11.2 ppg on this floor. Miami is highly motivated and will look to make a statement in this game. Lebron is playing out of his mind these days and Wade is starting to contribute, plus let's not forget about Bosh, wha has really been big since his return. Miami by at least 8 in this one.

UNDER 193.5: The Heat have been a very good defensive team all year, especially on this floor where they have allowed just 89 ppg overall and 87.4 ppg in the playoffs. The Thunder have not played defense that badly on the road this year as they have allowed 98 ppg, but on 43.2% shooting. In OKC the Thunder were able to get the game at their pace in game 1 and that is why they were able to come back and win, but in game 2 the Heart were able to stop the Thunder fast break and thus Miami took the game. Miami is not a running team and on their own floor they should get the game at their own pace. Miami home games in the playoffs have averaged 186.8 ppg and the mid 180's is just about where i see this one falling as well.

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +112 over LOS ANGELES

The White Sox have cooled off in the win column but they continue to pound the ball hard. They rebounded with a win over the Halos last night after losing the opener, 7-6. They scored another five times last night and five of the seven runs they scored on Friday were against Clayton Kershaw. They’ll now face the scuffling Chris Capuano. Capuano is 8-2 with a 2.87 ERA. However, he’s barely lasted five innings in each of his last three starts in which he was knocked around by the Angels, Phillies and Rockies. Capuano threw 66 innings in 2010 and 186 innings last season after missing almost three years after undergoing two Tommy John surgeries. He struggles miserably with men on base, he’s walked nine batters in his last three starts covering just 15.1 frames and it appears as though fatigue and the effects of his past are leading up to an implosion. Carlos Quintana doesn’t possess any eye-popping pitch but he gets the job done by mixing his pitches and throwing strikes. Though his fastball only sits between 86-91 mph, he locates it well down in the zone and induces his fair share of groundballs. Quintana has allowed two runs or less in each of his four starts and while he won’t maintain these numbers, he’s certainly playable with an offense behind him that can score in bunches. The real focus here is fading Capuano. Play: Chicago +112 (Risking 2 units).