Free Picks: Service Plays for Sunday June, 3

Marc Lawrence

Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers and Rockies meet in the rubber match their three game series when Nathan Eovaldi matches serves with Alex White at Coors Field in Colorado Sunday afternoon. Since gaining a starting spot in the rotation for the Dodgers last year Eovaldi has responded well, going 3-1 with a 2.46 ERA in his road starts. With the Rockies the worst team in the bigs on weekends at 2-15 this season, we'll back the better team and the better arm here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on the Dodgers.

Ben Burns

Oakland Athletics @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Oakland Athletics

I successfully played on the Royals in the first game of this series. However, even at the time I noted that the A's were sure to snap their losing streak soon. They did so Saturday, earning a much-needed 9-3 victory. I feel they'll have an excellent shot at another win on Sunday afternoon.

Milone is 6-4 with a solid 3.64 ERA and stingy 1.13 WHIP. Last time out, he limited the Yankees to two runs through 6 2/3 innings. Prior to that, in his previous start, he held the Angels to one run through seven complete innings. He's allowed four earned runs or less in eight of 10 starts and two earned runs or less in six of those.

Milone's lone start vs. the Royals came last season. He tossed eight shutout innings, allowing only three hits.

Mazzaro has only made two appearances this season and just one start. He's got a 4.50 ERA and opposing batters are hitting .304 against him. He was called up from Triple-A Omaha with the thought he could help out in long relief. He'll likely rejoin the bullpen when Jonathan Sanchez rejoins the rotation, which should be soon.

Mazzaro hasn't pitched at home yet this season. One might figure he'd be happy to pitch in front of the home fans. However, he has a 3-7 record and a terrible 6.04 ERA in 18 career home appearances, 15 as a starter. That includes a 24.55 ERA and 3.14 in home appearances as a Royal. Consider backing Oakland as an underdog.

Jim Feist

Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays

Boston is still banged up with injuries, especially in the outfield, and that will hurt in a big outfield like the Skydome in Toronto. Daniel Bard is on the hill and his fastball is way down as a starter, plus his control has been awful walking 31 in 53 innings. Throw in the 51 hits allowed and he puts a down of guys on base. He also has only one more K than walk! The Boston offense has never faced Drew Hutchison before and he's a good strikeout pitcher (36 in 44 IP). Play the Blue Jays.

Dave Cokin

Oakland Athletics vs Kansas City Royals
Pick: Oakland Athletics

Oakland actually put some runs on the board Saturday and they have a good chance at more against the suspect serves of Royals righty Vin Mazzaro. I'm backing Tommy Milone and the A's to get the win today.

SPORTS WAGERS

PHILADELPHIA +101 over Miami

Just a year ago, Carlos Zambrano’s pitching skills resulted in a 4.82 ERA and an alarming 1.45 WHIP. The difference for Zambrano this season has been better luck (30%/69% hit %/strand% in 2011, compared to 24%/78% this year). Zambrano’s velocity is continuing to fall as his average fastball is at an underwhelming 88.9 mph. He'll have value in flashes but once his 24% H% and 78% S% normalize, his ERA will be lucky to stay below 4.00. Joe Blanton shut down Miami on April 12 (7 IP, 1 ER) and a 3.46 xERA paired with his outstanding control (10 BB in 62 IP) makes him one of the higher-upside pitchers in the league right now. Blanton’s 5.05 ERA is sure to come down at some point soon. The misleading numbers on both these pitchers has the Fish falsely favored here and that’s reason to step in. Play: Philadelphia +101 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -1½ +127 over Seattle

The Mariners ended Chicago’s nine-game winning streak last night but needed 10 runs to do so. With Kevin Millwood on the hill, they may need another 10 runs here. That’s unlikely to happen with Chris Sale taking the mound. Millwood shows solid numbers in recent starts but he has benefited greatly from a favorable hit/strand profile and he has terrible matchup numbers against this opponent. Current White Sox hitters have 46 hits in 137 career AB’s versus Millwood for a BA of .346. They also have a .385 on-base %, a sick .555 slugging % and a .940 OPS. Since May 14, a span of nine games at home, the White Sox are averaging 8.4 runs per game. When Millwood faced Chicago at pitcher-friendly Safeco on April 22, he was tagged for five runs in 5.1 innings. In 33 career AB’s against Chris Sale, current Mariners have struck out 14 times. That’s no surprise, as the Seattle lineup strikes out more than any other AL batting order (7.6 times per game). Sale has allowed one earned run or less in five of his past six starts and struck out 15 in his last start. Dating back to 2010, the South Side is 19-4 in their last 23 games against the M’s, with the White Sox outscoring them 125-62. Play: Chicago -1½ +127 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Texas Rangers +100

Today at 3:35 PM EST the Texas Rangers visit the LA Angels. The Texas Rangers send lefty Matt Harrison to the mound (6-3 4.4 ERA & 1.37 IP) to face righty Dan Haren (3-5, 3.52 ERA & 1.20 WHIP) Matty Harrison has won "3" of his last "5", but is it good pitching, bad opponents (SEATTLE (2X) & SAN PADS 1X), or huge Texas offense. Angels go with Danny Haren who has had three straight quality starts going 22.1 ip with 1.59 ERA. Texas busts out today with offense & quiet the Angels who will lose today as we $$$$ # 5 in row on the TEXAS CREW .

John Ryan

Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Prediction: Tampa Bay Rays

5* graded play on Tampa Bay as they host the Baltimore Orioles in the finale of a three game set. The Orioles finally stopped the bleeding of a six game losing streak getting a huge win Saturday. Somehow, they have managed to stay tied with the Ryans for first place in the East despite a 3-7 record spanning their last 10 games. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 40-8 for 83% winners since 2006. Play on road dogs with a money line of +125 to +175 with a struggling starting pitcher posting an ERA >= 7.00 over his last five starts and with a recently struggling hitting team batting .225 or worse over their last five games. Baltimore is just 46-106 losing 46.2 units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games after batting .225 or worse over a five game span since 1997; 14-44 losing 23.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line in road games after having lost six or seven of their last eight games spanning the last three seasons. Orioles starter Jake Arrieta was hammered in his last start allowing six earned runs over just 4 ⅓ innings in a 8-6 loss to Toronto. Over his last three starts he has posted a 5.82 ERA with a 1.588 WHIP and his team record in these starts is just 1-2. Matt Moore will start for the Rays and is in solid form coming off a seven inning, two ER, 1 walk, 10 K?s outing. The Rays lost though 2-1 against the CWS. He has posted a 3.57 ERA and a 1.019 WHIP, striking out 24 batters in 17 ⅔ innings of work spanning his last three starts. Take Tampa Bay.

Michael Alexander

Heat vs. Celtics
Play: Under 180

Under is 12-5 in Heat last 17 Conference Finals games

Under is 8-3 in Celtics last 11 games as a home underdog.

Under is 5-1 in Heat last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Dave Price

San Francisco Giants -145

The Cubs have now lost 9 in a row away from home. They are 6-19 on the road this season and 27-57 in their last 84 road games. They are 1-7 in their last 8 games versus a left-handed starter and 6-21 in their last 27 road games versus a lefty starter. The Giants are 5-1 in their last 6 overall, 7-1 in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150, 4-1 in Zito's last 5 home starts and 5-2 in their last 7 home games versus the Cubs. Take San Fran.

Jeff Alexander

Minnesota Twins +125

The Indians have really struggled against southpaw starters. They have lost 11 of 15 games against them this season, including each of their last 5, while only batting .212 off them. I expect Cleveland's difficulty with lefties to continue with Minnesota's Scott Diamond set to take the mound. The Twins have won 4 of his 5 starts while he has posted an ERA of only 2.27. Cleveland's Justin Masterson is carrying an ERA of 5.14, and the Indians are 0-4 in his last 4 starts as a home favorite. Take the Twins.

Jimmy Boyd

San Francisco Giants -145

The Cubs are really struggling. They are 3-14 in their last 17 games overall and 0-9 in their last 9 on the road. Expect their struggles to continue as they face southpaw Barry Zito. Chicago is just 2-10 against lefty starters this season, scoring only 3.2 runs per game and hitting just .239 against them. It won't get much off of Zito, who is 2-0 (3-1 on the ML) with an ERA of 3.52 in 4 home starts this season. The Giants are 2-0 in Zito's last 2 starts versus the Cubs. San Francisco has won 5 of its last 6 and is 5-1 in its last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Giants are 2-0 against Chicago's Travis Wood, who has a 6.75 ERA in those 2 starts. The Cubs have lost 5 of their last 7 in San Francisco. Take the Giants.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -101

Motivated to put an end to their 4-game winning streak, the Texas Rangers certainly want to beat their AL West rivals this afternoon. The Los Angeles Angels are playing well, but the Rangers simply want this one a little bit more to try and avoid the series sweep.

Texas starter Matt Harrison has been dominant of late, going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last three starts. He has given up just 3 earned runs over 15 innings in his last two outings.

Dan Haren went 0-2 with a 6.29 ERA in four starts against Texas in 2011, and he'll now be facing a Rangers team trying to avoid its first five-game skid since June 11-16, its longest losing streak of 2011.

The Rangers are 8-0 in Harrison's last 8 starts as a road favorite. Texas is 11-2 in Harrison's last 13 road starts overall. The Rangers are 8-1 in their last 9 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Texas is 23-7 in their last 30 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game. Bet the Rangers Sunday.

Wunderdog

Washington at Connecticut
Pick: Washington +11

Washington is a big dog at Connecticut, but isn’t playing that badly, with a 1-3 record (2-2 ATS) while getting outscored by a 68.5 to 65.3 average. Washington has been a double-digit dog in each of the last two games, but lost just 79-77 and 65-63. One of those losses was to the defending WNBA champion Minnesota Lynx. The Mystics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a spread-cover. It's a bad situational handicapping spot for the home team as Connecticut comes into this one off a showdown with defending champion Minnesota. And they stumbled, blowing a 63-58 with just under eight minutes remaining in an 85-72 defeat. The Sun didn't play well - especially in the fourth quarter where they were outscored 30-16. The Sun shot abysmally from the perimeter, as Tan White, Allie Hightower, Kalana Greene and Danielle McCray combined to go 1-for-22. Grab the dog in what will be another spirited effort by undervalued Washington. Play Washington.