Insider Angles
Well, the Los Angeles Lakers flat out dominated Game 1 of the NBA Finals vs. the Boston Celtics, as the 102-89 final score did not do justice to how much of a blowout the game really was.
That said, we are looking for a huge bounce-back effort by the Celtics in Game 2, as they certainly cannot play any worse than they did in the opener. After all, thus is a team that had suffocated its opponents defensively previously, and it is virtually a given that they will not allow the Lakers to match their unbelievable 48.7 percent shooting percentage in Game 1.
Besides the defense not showing up, the Boston offense was limited by Ray Allen playing only 27 minutes due to his five personal fouls. His absence changed the offense significantly, as he is probably the best outside shooter on the club. While he was on the bench, the Lakers were able to leave the perimeter open defensibly without the fear of a three-point threat, and that sagging defense made things more difficult for Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce inside.
We expect a totally different game Sunday provided the referees let the stars play, and if Allen starts draining threes, it will force the Lakers to come out defensively and open things up for Garnett, Pierce and Rajon Rondo to drive to the hoop. Also, the Celtics are simply too good a team to duplicate their terrible performance, and the fact that they can still achieve their goal of splitting the first two games in LA remains a motivating factor in Game 2.
The Lakers, on the other hand, have to guard against overconfidence here after doing whatever they wanted much easier than anyone, including themselves, thought they would vs. what had been a great Celtics defense. We feel they will face much more defensive intensity this time around.
Now, whether or not an improved performance will result in an outright Boston win is debatable, but unlike Game 1, we do see the Celtics scratching and clawing to the final buzzer in Game 2, staying inside this spread at the very least.
Pick: Celtics +6.5
Rocketman
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Tampa Bay Rays Pick
Tampa Bay is an amazing 21-7 on the road this year. Tampa Bay is 9-1 this year on the road when the total is 9 to 9 1/2. Tampa Bay is 19-6 this year when playing on grass. Tampa Bay is scoring 5.9 runs per game on the road this year. Tampa Bay bullpen has a 3.26 ERA overall this year and a 2.35 ERA on the road this season. Matt Garza has a 3.08 ERA overall this year and has a 2.35 ERA on the road this season. Rich Harden has a 6.32 ERA his last 3 starts. We'll recommend a small play on Tampa Bay today!
Jim Feist
TEXAS RANGERS
Reason: Tampa Bay may have the best record in the majors, but for some reason they continue to struggle when playing at Arlington. The Rays face a possible sweep here on Sunday after dropping Saturday's game to the Rangers, 6-1. In fact, the Rays haven't been swept on the road sing last season at Boston on Sept 12-13. The Rays also boast the leagues best road record at 21-8 with the next closest team having just 16 road victories. Matt Garza is one of the best pitchers for the Rays, though he has just a 5-4 record this season and a nice ERA of just 3.08. However, Garza lost twice last season at Texas and was hit hard with a 11.17 ERA. The reason why Garza's record isn't better is because of the lack of run support. The Rays have scored just two runs in Garza's last three starts. Maybe it's something about Garza, considering he received the lowest run support in the AL last season. Rich Harden starts today for the Rangers and while he has three wins against just one loss, his ERA is much worse than Garza's at 5.33. The Rangers have won seven of Harden's last eight starts. Harden hasn't faced the Rays since 2005, but does have a 3-1 record against Tampa Bay with a 4.94 ERA. Harden wins mainly because he gets such good run support, something Garza just can't seem to get. Despite their great road record, I will be taking the Rangers here as dog. They are hitting the ball hard and Garza just seems to pitch in bad luck.
Marc Lawrence
Minnesota Twins at Oakland Athletics
Play: Oakland Athletics
When the A's send Gio Gonzalez to the hill against Nick Blackburn in the finale of this three game series in Los Angeles this afternoon they will do so knowing they've literally owned Blackburn in his MLB career as he is 0-5 with a 7.29 ERA in his five starts against Oakland. With Gonzalez 6-3 in his last nine home team starts, look for him to improve 2-0 at home in his career against the Twins here today.
Craig Trapp
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: Colorado Rockies -1.5
Best pitcher in baseball this year has been without a doubt Jimeninez for COL. In fact his ERA is best ever after first 10 starts 0.73 ERA. Even better for us ARI the last 10 games have really struggled at the plate only scoring an average of 2.8 runs per game. Starting for ARI is Lopez who has a 4 plus ERA and really has been up and down. COL will be patient and get to Lopez for at least 4 runs which will be plenty since Jimeninez will not give up more than 1 run. Easy r/l win.
BIG AL
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
PICK: Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee lefthander Manny Parra gets the start in this prime-time game over righthander Dave Bush and it's not hard to figure out why. The Cardinals rank 14th in the National League in hitting vs. lefthanded pitching with a .243 team batting average and just a .679 OPS, while they are one of the best teams in the league vs. righties. Also, Bush is 2-6 with a 6.45 ERA in nine career starts against St. Louis including 0-3 with a 10.57 ERA at Busch Stadium compared to Parra, who is 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 games, including 10 starts, against the Cardinals and is 2-0 with a 2.86 ERA in five starts at Busch Stadium. Looking at these numbers, it's pretty obvious why Parra is getting the call. Stephen Strasburg makes his long-awaited MLB debut for the Nats in a few days, but add Jaime Garcia's name to the list of rookies that Strasburg will be trying to best. Garcia has done very little wrong this season as the Cards #5 starter, but he's starting to see some teams for the second time, and the first time he saw the Brewers was his first start of the season back on April 10 and this is a team that has gone on a scoring tear since then and are now the second-highest run-scoring team in the NL. Take the Brewers.
EZWINNERS
Colorado Rockies -206
The Rockie's starting pitcher Ubaldo Jimenez has dominated this season posting a record of 10-1 with an ERA of only 0.78 for the season! In two starts against the Diamondbacks this season Jimenez is 2-0 and has not allowed an earned run in fourteen innings pitched. Arizona's startng pitcher Rodrigo Lopez is only 2-3 this season with an ERA of 4.31 and over his last three starts Lopez is 0-1 with an ERA of 5.68. Arizona is only 8-23 in their last thirty one games as a home underdog and Colorado is 14-3 in their last seventeen games as a favorite of -$200 or higher. Look for another dominating performance from the National Leagues CY Young front runner Ubaldo Jimenez as the Rockies pick up the win. Play on Colorado.
Gill Alexander
DET (-125) vs KAN
Bonderman has 5 straight quality starts and has posted a 1.85ERA over that stretch. On a a team w Justin Verlander and Ricky Porcello, he may actually be the Tigers most consistent starter. Bonderman has a 44-18 SO-BB ratio in 2010 and is holding opponents to a .239BA. Bannister has 6 quality starts in 10 outings this season, but opponents are hitting .276 against him w righties hitting even better at .298. That latter start is particularly significant against a team like the Tigers that features right-handed batters as its most potent offensive weapons (Cabrera, Ordonez, Jackson). Because that belies Bannister's stellar 2.12ERA in 8 career starts v Det, it's important to delve deeper into Bannister's real truth this season to find out how likely that impressive mark v Det might take hold. The answer: not as likely as one might think. Bannister's FIP of 5.11 is the 6th worst among qualifying starters in all of baseball. Bonderman, for his part, has a 3.58FIP. I'll happily back the consistency of Bonderman here at a very affordable price, especially when KC's bullpen (3rd worst pen FIP in MLB at 4.89) is always lurking.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play Philadelphia over San Diego
Kevin Correia (5-4, 4.55) of San Diego will go against veteran Kentucky Joe Blanton (1-4, 5.68) in what should be a real challenging affair for Philadelphia. Ever since the Phillies moved to the BANK they have a history of high scoring games on Sunday in June and July. The Phillies are 9-1 on Sunday’s with Blanton, while San Diego shows at 5-17 on the road when umpire Hudson calls balls and strikes. Finally, going into Saturday action the Phillies have won 7 straight versus the Padres.
Scott Spreitzer
Brewers at St. Louis
Pick: Over
Manny Parra has spent most of his time in the bullpen this season, but will make his third start in 2010. He's yet to make it past the fourth inning in his first two tries as a starter and I expect big problems against the Cardinal lineup tonight. The Cards had a bit of a power outage for about three weeks in May. But they have caught fire again winning five of their last six while scoring 46 runs in the process, or 7.67 rpg. The Redbirds average over 5 rpg in home night games against southpaws this season. Milwaukee is no slouch against lefthanders, either, averaging almost 5 rpg in 16 tries. Yes, Jaime Garcia has been outstanding for St. Louis, and I don't want to take too much away from himm, but he hasn't faced many top offensive units this season. He shut down the Brewers in April, (we cashed with Garcia in that one), but this will be just the second time this season that he will have faced an opponent for the second time. The first situation like this came in his last start, a 12-4 Cardinal win that easily flew Over the total. Garcia wasn't bad, but did allow three runs and three walks in six innings, the second most runs scored against him this entire season. Believe it or not, the Over is on a 41-19-5 run in Brewer games, including 21-6-2 on the road against teams who win more than 60% of their home games. We'll look for another Over to come in on Sunday night.
DUNKEL INDEX
Boston at LA Lakers
The Lakers look to follow up their Game 1 win and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games following a SU win. LA is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Lakers favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2)
Game 703-704: Boston at LA Lakers (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 119.971; LA Lakers 131.545
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 10 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (-5 1/2); Over
MLB
Chicago Cubs at Houston
The Astros look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games as a road favorite. Houston is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100)
Game 901-902: Florida at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.095; NY Mets (Takahashi) 15.801
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-110); Over
Game 903-904: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Correia) 15.399; Philadelphia (Blanton) 15.057
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+125); Under
Game 905-906: Cincinnati at Washington (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 14.428; Washington (Stammen) 14.975
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Over
Game 907-908: San Francisco at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 15.762; Pittsburgh (Maholm) 14.678
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-180); Over
Game 909-910: Chicago Cubs at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wells) 13.901; Houston (Myers) 15.320
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+100); Over
Game 911-912: Milwaukee at St. Louis (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Parra) 14.308; St. Louis (Garcia) 16.811
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-240); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-240); Under
Game 913-914: Colorado at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Jimenez) 15.131; Arizona (Lopez) 14.394
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-220); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-220); Over
Game 915-916: Atlanta at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.967; LA Dodgers (Ely) 16.358
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-125); Under
Game 917-918: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Vazquez) 15.992; Toronto (Morrow) 15.797
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Over
Game 919-920: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.181; Baltimore (Matusz) 13.658
Dunkel Line: Boston by 2 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-170); Over
Game 921-922: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (2:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Westbrook) 13.357; White Sox (Buehrle) 14.674
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-160); Under
Game 923-924: Detroit at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Bonderman) 15.103; Kansas City (Bannister) 16.080
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-135); 9
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Under
Game 925-926: Tampa Bay at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 15.989; Texas (Harden) 16.187
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+120); Over
Game 927-928: Minnesota at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.707; Oakland (Gonzalez) 16.493
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-125); Under
Game 929-930: LA Angels at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Pineiro) 16.472; Seattle (Vargas) 16.360
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Seattle (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+105); Over
NHL
Philadelphia at Chicago
The Blackhawks look to bounce back from their 5-3 loss in Game 4 and build on their 10-2 record in their last 12 games when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game. Chicago is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200)
Game 9-10: Philadelphia at Chicago (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 13.598; Chicago 14.093
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-200); 6
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-200); Under
WNBA
San Antonio at Connecticut
The Sun look to take advantage of a San Antonio team that is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 road games. Connecticut is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Sun favored by 11. Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-6)
Game 601-602: San Antonio at Connecticut (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 104.564; Connecticut 115.477
Dunkel Line & Total: Connecticut by 11; 150
Vegas Line & Total: Connecticut by 6; 148
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-6); Over
Game 603-604: Indiana at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 109.171; Minnesota 108.958
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 154
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 151 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3); Over
Game 605-606: Phoenix at Seattle (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.630; Seattle 116.158
Dunkel Line & Total: Seattle by 1; 176
Vegas Line & Total: Seattle by 4; 169
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+4); Over
MTi Sports
Red Sox at Orioles
Prediction: Over
The Orioles are 5-0 OU as a home 140+ dog vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series and the Red Sox are 8-0 OU as a road 140+ favorite after scoring 6+ runs and winning. Consider these two OVER.
John Ryan
Rockies at Diamondbacks
Prediction: Over
Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that 9 or more runs wil be scored in this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 44-16 making 27.8 units since 2004 for 73.3% winners. Play over with NL home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season facing an opponent with a hot starting pitcher posting a WHIP <= 1.000 over his last 5 starts. Arizona is a solid 18-7 OVER (+10.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season; 12-2 OVER (+9.9 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season; 18-3 OVER (+14.9 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season; 9-0 OVER (+9.2 Units) as an underdog of +150 or more this season. Take the OVER.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland A's -123
The A's have been solid at home all season, posting an 18-11 mark, and after back-to-back 1-run defeats, I expect them to break through today. While Blackburn has good win/loss numbers, sooner or later the losses are going to start piling up if he doesn't improve. He has really struggled on the road this season, posting a 6.44 ERA and a 1.806 WHIP. Plus, he has never beaten the A's. He's 0-5 on the money line against Oakland with an ERA of 6.37 and a WHIP of 1.517. It is also worth noting that the Twins are 9-20 in Blackburn's last 29 road starts, 3-13 in his last 16 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 1-8 in his last 9 starts vs. the American League West and 0-7 in his last 7 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Gonzalez has pitched well for the A's, especially at home where he is carrying a 2.97 ERA. Plus, the Athletics are 6-0 in Gonzalez's last 6 starts as a favorite, and the Twins are only 16-35 in their last 51 road games vs. a left-handed starter. The Athletics are an absolutely dominant 15-3 in their last 18 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 9-3 in their last 12 during game 3 of a series. I like the A's for all of these reasons regardless, but they could even catch a few more breaks. Joe Mauer could be given rest today and Justin Morneau is also listed as questionable. If these two key bats aren't in the lineup, it only helps our cause. Take the A's.
Sac Lawson
KAN / DET Under 9
First off... If lefties aren't on the mound, Kerwin Danley is pretty much a fair umpire. He's been all Unders to lefties throughout his career, but to righties, the guy is split down the middle. So we'll just assume we'll get a fair deal behind the plate today, and put more importance on the other factors for this total...
Another factor we can pretty much throw out is the weather. Winds will be blowing in from left today at about 5-10mph. And it'll be a mild, partly cloudy day. Basically, it's a standard day of baseball.. Another factor we can throw out.
We're going Under here in Kansas City, and we're doing so, mainly because I love both of our starters. Bonderman is on the mound for Detroit, and while his first 3 or 4 starts of the year were rough, he's really started to find his game. This is a guy that has only given up 1 run in his last 13 road innings. Good for him! Fact is, this KC lineup is literally one of the best in baseball in terms of batting average. They get tons of guys on base, it's just a matter of timely hitting. One thing I like about Bonderman is that both righties and lefties hit right around 0.230 against him. The guy just flat out isn't hittable; his main issue is walks, which is something KC doesn't do well. I definitely like Bonderman to continue his decent form today, and I think Detroit's bullpen is one of the more reliable ones in the big league's.. Actually, if I'm being honest, Detroit is actually second best with an ERA of 2.82 out of the pen (0.01 behind San Diego at 2.81).
On the other side, I truly have faith in Brian Bannister. If there is one thing that has been apparent over the course of his career, it's the fact that his best month out of the year is always June. For whatever reason, he flat out owns the month of June. He also happens to own his home field. The guy is 4-1 with a 3.65 ERA at home this season, and has a home ERA of about 1.5 runs less than his road ERA over the course of his career as well. On top of that, in his six starts against Detroit over the last three years, he's got an ERA of just 2.10.
Yes, the KC bullpen is a concern. They have an ERA of around 4.6, which is in the lower half of the majors. But Detroit's bullpen is so good, that KC would really have to implode to screw us here. I love the way Bonderman is pitching right now, and I love Brian Bannister even more at home and against Detroit. While I think KC has a good chance of winning this game, it's their bullpen that concerns me. But I'm confident that even if they give up 2 runs late.. It'd still make it a 4-2 final. UNDER for 1 unit.
OAK (-125) vs MIN
I can fully fully, 100% respect any dude willing to take Minnesota today. Quite frankly, the Twins are a tough team to go against, and the fact that Gio has given up 18 runs in 2 starts (5.2 innings) in his career against the Twins is enough to make a guy ralph up his cheesefries. That being said.. Oakland is the play.
Gio, does indeed, have terrible history against the Twins. However, today he's got two things going for him. First, he's pitching at home. Not only is that good from a comfort standpoint, but it means he's got a massive pitchers park behind him to weather the power bats of the Twins. Number two, he's a lefty. Yes, I'm fully aware that Minnesota hits lefties well, even though they are mostly left handed power hitters themselves. A bit of an enigma, or at least, not what you'd expect. But, at the same time, Gio barely gives up a 0.150 clip to lefties this year, and throughout his career for that matter. So, while I respect the Twins and their ability to hit lefties, the fact that Gio is a lefty killer is something i just can't ignore. His curveball is damn near unhittable as a lefty, I don't care if you're Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, or whoever else the Twins want to throw out there.
On the other side, while Gio's lack of success against the Twins will be mentioned by numerous cappers today, I think it's important to realize that Blackburn has had some struggles of his own.. The guy has had two starts against Oakland over the last three years, and he's got an ERA in the 7.0 range himself. Definitely not a soothing thought for Twins backers. At the same time, the guy is flat out bad on the road. This year he's got an ERA of 6.44 on the road, and allows the opposition to hit him at over a 0.360 clip. Funny thing is, this isn't a one year issue. Throughout his career, he's flat out struggled on the road.
I understand there are numbers that go against Gio, and there are numbers that go against Blackburn. But at the end of the day, I like the home team, and I continue to have faith that Gio matches up well against this left-handed lineup. Oakland 1 unit!